Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Thu Dec 12, 2013 3:10 pm

drachefly wrote:That's the strongest possible claim, so I don't see bladestorm having any basis to reject it on those grounds. Adding it.

No rejection at all. That's basically the only way he could further turn away from the butcher that has compromised Sizemore's own principals and destroyed everything Sizemore ever stood for. He's lost his status in the MK, his friends, his adoring followers, his pacifism, his fantasy life apart from GK... all he has left is raw duty. He won't even talk to Parson unless ordered to do so. If that wasn't already enough to make him Turn, making Master Class won't do it. There's plenty of time for Janis or Marie to counsel him. Or he can croak and Wanda can more forcefully alter his perception. Or maybe one of the casters from Team Wanda can talk to him about his mindset. Still plenty of time left for plenty of things to happen. Maybe even a Parson/Maggie/Sizemore threesome/tri-link that could fundamentally alter the dirtamancer's perception of his warlord in way he never thought possible.

Now if Parson spins off his own Side and Sizemore opts to stay with Stanley, that would make sense, being that they are from the same Tribe.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby spriteless » Thu Dec 12, 2013 4:23 pm

Those would be a smart management moves, saving Sizemore's morale, but would waste all the foreshadowing!
T'was a splendidly speedy defection.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Thu Dec 12, 2013 6:12 pm

bladestorm wrote:No rejection at all.


I agree with you. I was just making sure that the terms of the bet were crystal clear.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Mon Dec 16, 2013 1:52 pm

spriteless wrote:Those would be a smart management moves, saving Sizemore's morale, but would waste all the foreshadowing!

It's only foreshadowing if a certain event actually transpires. It has been shown several times before of Sizemore being severely upset with Parson, and one of his associates turns him around and shows him that what Parson did was actually good for Sizemore. It's been shown just as much that 1.) Sizemore is highly resistant to change and needs help from others adjusting that it has that 2.) Sizemore is upset by Parson's actions and orders.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lilwik » Mon Jan 06, 2014 7:49 pm

I bet 10q that King Scrofula croaks and Prince Axe takes over before the end of Lord Crush.

I also bet 10q to 20q that King Scrofula croaks from an attack from within Squashcourt before the end of Lord Crush. I'm including Squashcourt's prisoners as being part of Squashcourt.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Mon Jan 13, 2014 1:27 pm

So, I read this. It's a system for automatically determining the odds that ought to be laid on a bet given two players' probability estimates of the outcomes, such that neither one can game the system given knowledge of the other's estimate.

Seems like a great way to automatically set up bets - no negotiations. You just say, "I will accept auto-oddsed bets with total bet scale = S, based on my probability estimate of P%"

Then someone can reply with "I'll accept X of that bet with my probability estimate Q." Which you may optionally follow up with "This works out to your betting D to my E." or you can leave it to me to calculate (which I will anyway since the formula is simple).

You just opine on a subject, other players can offer a different opinion on the same subject, and bam you've got a fair bet.

What is that formula? To borrow a summary by DavidS, "Each puts in the square of their surprise, then swap." with surprise being the probability that you had assigned to the outcome not occurring.

At greater length:

S = what that link calls 'max bet' but I'd call 'bet scale', since the actual bet amount will generally be much smaller than it...
P = probability that player one assigns to the proposition being true
Q = probability that player two assigns to the proposition being false
NOTE: to find your real max bet given S and the P that you gave, take the larger of S*P^2 and S*(1-P)^2. If you want to bet around 25, say, and had a probability of 80%, then set a scale of 35).

If P < 1-Q, swap the phrasing of the bet so that P -> 1-P and Q -> 1-Q. This keeps the bet offers positive.

player 1 puts in S * (P*P - (1-Q)*(1-Q))
player 2 puts in S * (Q*Q - (1-P)*(1-P))

You can try messing around with the probabilities and find out that you get a bigger payoff but bigger risks for making more confident bets, in an exactly balanced way, so that you get the most expected payoff by being honest with your estimates. By letting both players limit the scale of the bet we don't open up the method of abuse described in the discussion of this method, either.

Example:

I say '80% chance that Banhammer did not just disband the gwiffon, bet scale 100'
Bob says 'I take 50 of that bet, with 60% chance he did just disband the gwiffon'

So,

I put in 50 * (0.8*0.8 - 0.4*0.4) = 24
Bob puts in 50 * (0.6*0.6 - 0.2*0.2) = 16

I expect to win 80% * 16 - 20% * 24 = 8
Bob expects to win 60% * 24 - 40% * 16 = 8

So it's fair - we each expect to win 8. Given this example I'd end up paying out 24 to Bob.

After this bet, I still have 50 bet scale free to be taken by someone else at any probability they want.


Note that if you set a probability of 50%, the most you can end up paying out is quarter of the bet scale. It goes higher as you approach the extremes.

Example 2:
Bob says "I put a 50q scale auto-oddsed bet on a my 60% chance that Banhammer didn't just disband that gwiffon"
I say "Only 60%? I'll take that - 80% that he didn't!"

First we swap the sense of Bob's statement so that he's putting 40% chance of Banhammer not disbanding the gwiffon, and I'm putting 80% that he did.

So he puts in 50*(0.4*0.4 - 0.2*0.2) = 6
I put in 50*(0.8*0.8 - 0.6*0.6) = 14

Fairness check:
I expect to win 0.8*6 - 0.2*14 = 2
Bob expects to win 0.4*14 - 0.6*6 = 2

Yup, works out!

And again given this bet, I'd end up paying out to Bob, but less - 14 - because his estimate wasn't so different from mine as last time.

With that in mind, I put 50 bet scale on each of the following probabilities:
85% that Scrofula does not end up adopting Lord Crush's plan (at least in substantial part) without a push from a third party (even one on his side)
75% that Scrofula dies during 'Lord Crush' updates.
96% that Lord Crush is alive or decrypted-alive at some time past the end of the 'Lord Crush' updates.
also, scale 100 on:
45% that Squashcourt falls to Bullyclub during 'Lord Crush' updates
(All of these expired with no takers right after I offered them. I got the two higher-probability ones 'right' and was also 'right' on the 55% that Squashcourt wouldn't fall to Bullyclub. Screwed up Scrofula croaking, though)
Last edited by drachefly on Sun May 04, 2014 9:36 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby No one in particular » Mon Jan 13, 2014 4:09 pm

Here we are again! Another couple of months gone by, another 20q to throw in my pot.

Anyone want in on this? Anyone want to up raise their bet?

Refresher
Bet: Parson is a Date-a-mancer
Yes: (150)
    No one in particular - 150
No: (130)
    Lilwik - 10
    Taikei no Yuurei - 10
    drachefly - 20
    xarx - 20
    mortissimus - 30
    wih - 30
    0beron - 10
--edit--
MadZuri - 10 on No
Last edited by No one in particular on Tue Jan 14, 2014 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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"Not at all. I saved it for my last battle."
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby MadZuri » Tue Jan 14, 2014 11:17 am

I'll throw 10 into the no pot. Anyone else want in on mine? 3 spots available at 10q, I had bet that Charlsecomm had dolls that mimic archons. Some of the biggest winners are already betting against me.

I like that method for working bets. I'll be sure to use it on any future ones.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lilwik » Fri Feb 28, 2014 4:42 pm

I bet 20q to 10q that the CIty of Homekey really is attacked by air, with actual enemy units in the airspace. For example, I lose the bet if the attack by air is a political move by Creen (unless that involved breaking the alliance and flying up into the airspace to do battle). I also lose the bet if the attack is made by a nonflying heir.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:31 am

I am 60% confident that Doug will end up in the sack with Dove Barstool. 30q magnitude.

I am 85% confident that they will end up succeeding. 30q magnitude.

I am 97% confident that if they succeed, it will be by using carnymancy to get away with a non-straightforward interpretation of the prediction, without making it false.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lilwik » Tue Mar 04, 2014 3:03 am

drachefly wrote:I am 60% confident that Doug will end up in the sack with Dove Barstool. 30q magnitude.
I'll take all 30q with 84% confidence that it won't happen.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Wed Mar 05, 2014 9:45 pm

Okay, that'll be me putting in 10q and you putting in 16q (rounded down from 16.3).

Expected wins are 10*0.84 - 16*0.16 = 5.84 for you, and 16*0.6 - 10*0.4 = 5.6 for me.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Shai_hulud » Mon Mar 10, 2014 2:25 am

I'm not exactly sure how this new betting scheme works. I want to say I'm 99% confident Dove is going screw/gyp them instead of actually helping. I want to put up to 25q on it. Did I do it right?
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Godzfirefly » Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:00 am

Shai_hulud wrote:I'm not exactly sure how this new betting scheme works. I want to say I'm 99% confident Dove is going screw/gyp them instead of actually helping. I want to put up to 25q on it. Did I do it right?


Honestly, I'm 100% confident that Dove is honestly trying to help Homekey, whether she succeeds or not. So, I'll accept that 25q bet at 100% confidence that she is actually helping Homekey. (I'm not sure that 99% confidence helps protect your 25q much more than 100%, by the way)
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Whispri » Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:15 am

Shai_hulud wrote:I'm not exactly sure how this new betting scheme works. I want to say I'm 99% confident Dove is going screw/gyp them instead of actually helping. I want to put up to 25q on it. Did I do it right?

No idea. I might well have taken that bet if you hadn't used that system, but alas.

I suppose I must add: No one is going to sell me on that method, I would prefer it if no attempt is made.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Thu Mar 13, 2014 12:48 pm

Shai_hulud wrote:I'm not exactly sure how this new betting scheme works. I want to say I'm 99% confident Dove is going screw/gyp them instead of actually helping. I want to put up to 25q on it. Did I do it right?


You did. I think you're overconfident, but that is, mechanically, how you do it.

Godzfirefly wrote:Honestly, I'm 100% confident that Dove is honestly trying to help Homekey, whether she succeeds or not. So, I'll accept that 25q bet at 100% confidence that she is actually helping Homekey. (I'm not sure that 99% confidence helps protect your 25q much more than 100%, by the way)


And this is even more overconfident. Anyway, having that level of confidence on each side simplifies it tremendously - it's just an even bet at 25q. You're right that 99% confidence doesn't help all that much in this scheme - ideally, one of your bets would be 1.0001 times as large as the other one, but I'm not going to 4 sig figs here.

However I will need you to agree on whether the bet is on whether she's trying to help, and perhaps a judge for the likely case that we don't find out with certainty.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Godzfirefly » Thu Mar 13, 2014 3:19 pm

drachefly wrote:
Shai_hulud wrote:I'm not exactly sure how this new betting scheme works. I want to say I'm 99% confident Dove is going screw/gyp them instead of actually helping. I want to put up to 25q on it. Did I do it right?


You did. I think you're overconfident, but that is, mechanically, how you do it.

Godzfirefly wrote:Honestly, I'm 100% confident that Dove is honestly trying to help Homekey, whether she succeeds or not. So, I'll accept that 25q bet at 100% confidence that she is actually helping Homekey. (I'm not sure that 99% confidence helps protect your 25q much more than 100%, by the way)


And this is even more overconfident. Anyway, having that level of confidence on each side simplifies it tremendously - it's just an even bet at 25q. You're right that 99% confidence doesn't help all that much in this scheme - ideally, one of your bets would be 1.0001 times as large as the other one, but I'm not going to 4 sig figs here.

However I will need you to agree on whether the bet is on whether she's trying to help, and perhaps a judge for the likely case that we don't find out with certainty.



Shai_hulud's bet was that Dove is going to screw/gyp Homekey. To me, that suggests more than just accidental poor judgement or inability to make a difference. It suggests actively not doing what she was hired to do in order to either gain a benefit for herself, benefit another, or hurt Homekey. My bet is that this is not the case. If Shai_hulud disagrees about the meaning of his/her own bet, I'll be willing to bet based on the definition he intended.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Whispri » Thu Mar 13, 2014 3:26 pm

4 quatloo say that Dove's plan will work.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Shai_hulud » Thu Mar 13, 2014 6:28 pm

drachefly wrote:You did. I think you're overconfident, but that is, mechanically, how you do it.

I wasn't actually sure I was allowed to make a 100% statement, game rules wise.


Godzfirefly wrote:Shai_hulud's bet was that Dove is going to screw/gyp Homekey. To me, that suggests more than just accidental poor judgement or inability to make a difference. It suggests actively not doing what she was hired to do in order to either gain a benefit for herself, benefit another, or hurt Homekey. My bet is that this is not the case. If Shai_hulud disagrees about the meaning of his/her own bet, I'll be willing to bet based on the definition he intended.

Yeah, my intended meaning was that her original intent was, and is, to con them to gain resources without doing the work she was hired for, either because she has no desire to do so, or has no ability (fraud in other words). This was only about her original intent though, and if she changes her mind later (say during an attack) that would still in my mind count as her having been a con, just one who did a heel face turn. Thus the bet is only that her original intent was to commit fraud, not the final outcome. Does this seem acceptable to you?
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Godzfirefly » Thu Mar 13, 2014 6:45 pm

Acceptable.
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