Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Sixty » Fri Jun 22, 2012 3:34 am

5-13, I'd wait til you're sure with that. If they ARE in the airspace they're gonna show up as a gamechanger to change the tide of battle when things look lost for Slately.

0beron wrote:Now, for a new bet,
I bet 10q that the reason Jillian was called back to court is directly related to Wanda or Olive (not just Haffaton in general). And I propose the bet not be called until the END of Book 0, since it is possible I initially appear wrong but we later find out I was right.


I'll take this one.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby five-thirteen » Fri Jun 22, 2012 4:00 am

Sixty wrote:5-13, I'd wait til you're sure with that. If they ARE in the airspace they're gonna show up as a gamechanger to change the tide of battle when things look lost for Slately.


I'm like, 90% sure right now, anyway, if they came into the fight, Charlie would use them to croak Slatey's team first. Slatey only used hat magic to make contact with Don King so it's a safe bet that Charlie would get away with it. If the remaining Decrypted Archons turned to Charlescomm, or at least didn't attack his "recon team" he'd initiate some kind of turning or, failing that, capture them outright. He'd get what he wants* and be able to deny GK the new units Wanda would Decrypt.


*assuming he wants a Decrypted Archon
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Fri Jun 22, 2012 9:23 am

Let's hold off on that anyway, shan't we? Updating for new bet.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Balerion » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:49 pm

New bet to throw out there: 20q that the arkentools being brought together is a solution to the economic problems erfworld faces.

Essentially the fact that every side is always needing more money would seem to indicate that the total number of schmuckers available in the world is on the net decline. I will claim a win if bringing the arkentools together is intended to address this problem, regardless of how effective a solution it turns out to be. if this problem doesn't actually exist, that would be a win for the other side :)
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Charlie Attacks!

Postby Duke of spoot » Fri Jun 29, 2012 1:48 pm

If I can play, I'm going to make three separate bets.

I bet 30 quatloos that Charlie is offering money for Archons alive because he has stopped spawning them.

I bet 30 quatloos that Charlie has instead been spawning beings capable of attacking underground.

And I bet 40 quatloos that when an attack is made on Gobwin's Knob, it will be underground, and Charlie will have something to do with it (like giving info to somebody else).

All before book four. And I haven't gone back and re-read Book 0 yet, so please tell me if these have already been answered.
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Re: Charlie Attacks!

Postby cloudbreaker » Fri Jun 29, 2012 3:13 pm

Duke of spoot wrote:If I can play, I'm going to make three separate bets.

I bet 30 quatloos that Charlie is offering money for Archons alive because he has stopped spawning them.

I bet 30 quatloos that Charlie has instead been spawning beings capable of attacking underground.

And I bet 40 quatloos that when an attack is made on Gobwin's Knob, it will be underground, and Charlie will have something to do with it (like giving info to somebody else).

All before book four. And I haven't gone back and re-read Book 0 yet, so please tell me if these have already been answered.

I'll take you up on your first and third wagers. I'm thinking Charlie is still popping archons en-mass, and I have a feeling it may be Jillian who makes a first move against GK with her airforce, especially since most of GK's fliers are in Spacerock.
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Re: Charlie Attacks!

Postby drachefly » Fri Jun 29, 2012 11:40 pm

Duke of spoot wrote:I haven't gone back and re-read Book 0 yet, so please tell me if these have already been answered.


Nope, you're clear on those.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Sat Jun 30, 2012 11:03 am

I bet that Ossomer has not been the subject of dittomancy that duplicates him, during book 2. My 20 q to your 10q. I will take this bet with up to 3 people.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Whispri » Sat Jun 30, 2012 11:45 am

Whispri wrote:I'd like to bet 30 quatloos that Wanda will reestablish her Side at the Site of Spacerock. Annnnd a further 10 that the 'Stay alive at any price' order Parson gave to Wanda is part of why she does so.

I bet twenty quatloos that Sizemore will become Gobwin Knob's Chief Caster after Wanda leaves the post.

I bet ten quatloos that Wanda will be the one who casts that scroll that Parson was given in the Magic Kingdom.

'Kay, i'm making some changes to these. As of now I'm merely betting twenty quatloos that Wanda will reestablish her Side at the Site of Spacerock. Ten that Sizemore will replace her as Gobwin Knob's Chief Caster. Five that Wanda will be Casting that Scroll.

0beron wrote:
  • 5q: I bet Wanda will not make Master Class before reaching FAQ

As for the Cubbins bit, I also believe he will be the first Decrypted Caster, so we're in agreement :p

If that one's open to anyone I'll bite.

Why so? Wanda's prolly going to have to fight past those Thinkamancers if she's to make it through that Portal...
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Sun Jul 01, 2012 10:13 am

Resolved two bets based on update 33.

Based on a recent thread:

I bet my 25q to your 10q that if Slately appoints Trammenis heir and then dies and is decrypted, Tramennis does not reinstate him as king. Coercion is allowed, but the chain of causality has to pass through Tramennis.

I bet my 25q to your 20q that if Slately appoints Trammenis heir and then dies and is decrypted, Slately is not reinstated as king.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Whispri » Sun Jul 01, 2012 10:44 am

drachefly I do not concede on that bet. Wanda is not working at Faq and until such time as she is that bet will remain open.

The other bet you so conviently decided to declare in your own favour today seems pretty dubious as well, Wanda has not been shown working for Olive, what she's doing off screen is neither here nor there.

And I have to say that I'm getting sick and booping tired of the high handed way you're resolving these things.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Sun Jul 01, 2012 11:49 am

Edited to remove old invalid stuff. See next post.
Last edited by drachefly on Sun Jul 01, 2012 5:16 pm, edited 7 times in total.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Sun Jul 01, 2012 12:33 pm

Previous post is retracted. New version:

If you think she can stuff the cat back into the bag, sure, let's play along. To boot, I'll sweeten the deal. My 50q to your 2q that she doesn't pose (to any of the casters, warlords, or Banhammer, whether successfully or not; or, successfully to anyone for more than, say, a minute; and in no case does a joke count.) as another type of caster at any point while at FAQ. Does that sweet offer make up for my offense?

As for Olive, if Myrtuh contests it, I'll retract the and make a specific weighted offer: a bet with terms equivalent to the terms of pool, my 50 to your 2. Note that the bet did not require her to be ON SCREEN. Simply the update during which the assertion is known to be true.


Also, on the second Slately bet 2 posts up, I meant that he is not reinstated at any point by any means... during book 2, say, to put an end date on it.

ALSO, I finally take swodaems up on that bet on page 1.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Sun Jul 01, 2012 1:17 pm

Heck, I'll throw in unsuccessfully posing to non-court-members under the same terms. Doesn't make much sense to exclude that.

Also, 'retract the and' on the second bet should be 'retract the call on the pool and', and the slately bet is now 3 posts up.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Whispri » Sun Jul 01, 2012 3:39 pm

Fine, I'll take that bet.

But really, all I ask is that if we have a bet on 'x' or 'y' being true when event 'q' occurs, we wait to resolve the bet until event 'q' occurs.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Sun Jul 01, 2012 5:18 pm

... or q can no longer occur. That's the problem we face now, isn't it? I suppose there are certain farfetched cases where Wanda could for a time pretend to be some other kind of caster, but based on the odds I gave, I clearly estimate them to be less than 4% probable. That, I suppose, is insufficiently improbable to call the bet.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Swodaems » Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:06 am

drachefly wrote:ALSO, I finally take swodaems up on that bet on page 1.

Do you mind if I cancel that bet? It had no takers for about a year and I had forgotten about it.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Tue Jul 03, 2012 12:44 pm

Swodaems wrote:
drachefly wrote:ALSO, I finally take swodaems up on that bet on page 1.

Do you mind if I cancel that bet? It had no takers for about a year and I had forgotten about it.


Done, and how about, going forward, all bet offers auto-expire after 6 months unless some other limit is described? After all, if book 2 were about to end, that could be a very safe bet to take.

In that vein, I put a time-limit on my Slately decryption bets - I will not take such a bet after any update in which Slately dies.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Oberon » Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:32 pm

Mrtyuh wrote:Should we call my bet with Oberon? Goodminton no longer exists; Wanda is a barbarian. By the terms of my bet, I've lost, even if it's not in the manner I planned. On the other hand, Wanda, former Overlord of Goodminton, is still in the field with Goodminton's remaining forces, with the enemy approaching, so it could be argued she's still serving Goodminton. I'll admit I'd like to keep the bet going to see how it plays out, but I'll accept a verdict that I lost.
I don't think it'd be fair to call this a loss for you. I don't think we'll ever know exactly what happened to Tommy, and it's quite possible that he neither 'timed out' and dusted nor fell/dusted in battle.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby SNfinity » Wed Jul 04, 2012 5:30 pm

Hi, I'm new here! I'm not sure if there's a procedure, but I'm interested in joining in. Specifically, who will take my bet of 20q that the fourth Arkentool attunes to Sizemore?
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