Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

[drachefly]

Fair game. So, you're saying, say, my 20q to your 10q that that doesn't happen? I'll take that. No offer to continue in any fashion from Charlie, afterwards.

[Nnelg]

I have a prediction, but it concerns the end of the book so it may be beyond the scope of this thread.

Spoiler: show

The series will end with Parson back in StupidWorld. He will receive some form of electronic communication from Charlie to the effect of "GG. Game 2?"

I'd go 2:1 on it.

Fair game. So, you're saying, say, my 20q to your 10q that that doesn't happen? I'll take that. No offer to continue in any fashion from Charlie, afterwards.

Ah, could we start a betting pool or something? I'd like to bet 10q in favor.

[drachefly]

Umm, All right. I'll put 20 against.

[sheepfly]

I'd like to bet 10q that Ace defects from Jetstone voluntarily (is not turned by magic or decryption) by the end of book 2. Any takers?

[drachefly]

You're on.

[Sixty]

I'll bet someone 10q that Jillian's yellow dwagon gets converted by Stanley when he attacks. If it dies before then or something else happens to it, the other person wins.

[Whispri]

I'll bet someone 10q that Jillian's yellow dwagon gets converted by Stanley when he attacks. If it dies before then or something else happens to it, the other person wins.

I'll take that bet.

[bladestorm]

I am willing to put up 20q that GK gets attacked before they can next end turn.

[Lamech]

I am willing to put up 20q that GK gets attacked before they can next end turn.

The city itself or any of their forces? Because the sides about to be attacked by Slately leading the Jetstonion forces to their croaks.

[bladestorm]

I am willing to put up 20q that GK gets attacked before they can next end turn.

The city itself or any of their forces? Because the sides about to be attacked by Slately leading the Jetstonion forces to their croaks.

The city. The one that currently has no magic user in it, no CWL in it, and has a nice shiny Arkenhammer in it.

[bladestorm]

I am willing to put up 20q that GK gets attacked before they can next end turn.

The city itself or any of their forces? Because the sides about to be attacked by Slately leading the Jetstonion forces to their croaks.

The city. The one that currently has no magic user in it, no CWL in it, and has a nice shiny Arkenhammer in it.

Actually, I'll make another bet that's more finite. No combat attacks against any of GK's forces (wherever they may be, MK, GK, SR, wherever) during pages 94 through 99 of Book 2. If they make it to Page 100 with no attacks, 10q for me. If they get attacked any time during those pages, I'll pay out 20q. Bet has to be taken before page 94 is released.

[Whispri]

Actually, I'll make another bet that's more finite. No combat attacks against any of GK's forces (wherever they may be, MK, GK, SR, wherever) during pages 94 through 99 of Book 2. If they make it to Page 100 with no attacks, 10q for me. If they get attacked any time during those pages, I'll pay out 20q. Bet has to be taken before page 94 is released.

I... suppose I'll take that one. Text updates inclusive I presume?

[bladestorm]

Actually, I'll make another bet that's more finite. No combat attacks against any of GK's forces (wherever they may be, MK, GK, SR, wherever) during pages 94 through 99 of Book 2. If they make it to Page 100 with no attacks, 10q for me. If they get attacked any time during those pages, I'll pay out 20q. Bet has to be taken before page 94 is released.

I... suppose I'll take that one. Text updates inclusive I presume?

So long as they fall within Book 2, Pages 94 and 99. I believe we can get another 6 pages of build-up, and then mark page 100 with a full page spread of glorious combat. We have Jillian, TV, What's going on back at GK, Charlescomm, Tram leaving, MK, Carnymancers vs Predictamancers, a Cubbins rescue, the entire rest of the RCC II, the Marbits mysteriously replacing the Gobwins near GK, and so much other stuff that can be addressed before then, and it would be rather satisfying to have page 100 be the decisive victory battle. The armies may be amassed and ready to rumble, but Parson has been a hop, a skip, and short jump from that portal for a while now.

[Oberon]

I'll wager 20 quatloos that Jetstone does not fall this day. "Day" in this context means that the turns of all involved parties have been taken and ended. I'm not going to speculate as to who will go first on the next day, but in TBFGK it was always Charlescomm, followed by GK, so we should have some solid measure of when the day has ended.

I'll wager 20 quatloos that Parson and at least but not limited to Wanda do pass through the Jetstone portal. This does not have to be together, but it will be within this day as defined above.




Edit:
I'm still listed as being at 0 quatloos with a 10q bet outstanding. This was the bet:
"Mrtyuh bet Oberon 10q that un-Tommy will decay until he ceases to exist (as opposed to being destroyed in combat or disbanded,) and this process will be complete before Wanda leaves Goodminton's service."
I was willing to allow the bet to be called a wash and null, but Mrtyuh insisted that he had lost. So the OP needs to be updated to reflect my winnings and remove the resolved wager. If it's ruled by the bookies that the bet was null, which I won't argue against since I already allowed as much, then the wager still needs to be removed as having been resolved.

Or are you archiving resolved bets in case of a later challenge, which might not be a bad idea? In which case they should be placed under and appropriate header.

[Kandarin]

I fold on my 10q wager about the effects of Don's personal bat. Don may do something useful with the information that the bat gained, but the air battle is over.

20 quatloos says that by the time Parson gets through that portal, it'll lead to the City of Jetstone instead of Spacerock.

[bladestorm]

I fold on my 10q wager about the effects of Don's personal bat. Don may do something useful with the information that the bat gained, but the air battle is over.

20 quatloos says that by the time Parson gets through that portal, it'll lead to the City of Jetstone instead of Spacerock.

I'll take that one.

[memnarch]

...
Edit:
I'm still listed as being at 0 quatloos with a 10q bet outstanding. This was the bet:
"Mrtyuh bet Oberon 10q that un-Tommy will decay until he ceases to exist (as opposed to being destroyed in combat or disbanded,) and this process will be complete before Wanda leaves Goodminton's service."

...

Well, know we know that un-Tommy did not decay til turning to dust, but instead was "disbanded" when Goodminton fell or destroyed when Wanda was captured.


I'll wager 15q that Crapsack dies fighting Haffaton, either in the field or a city controlled by Haffaton (like the capital).

[0beron]

Well, know we know that un-Tommy did not decay til turning to dust, but instead was "disbanded" when Goodminton fell or destroyed when Wanda was captured.

We actually don't know that. Un-Tommy was in her stack, so he didn't disband. And since we don't know what happened next yet, we can't be sure if Wanda went down fighting. So it seems Un-Tommy's fate is still unknown.

[memnarch]

Well, know we know that un-Tommy did not decay til turning to dust, but instead was "disbanded" when Goodminton fell or destroyed when Wanda was captured.

We actually don't know that. Un-Tommy was in her stack, so he didn't disband. And since we don't know what happened next yet, we can't be sure if Wanda went down fighting. So it seems Un-Tommy's fate is still unknown.

Hmmm, I suppose that is also a possibility. It doesn't look like he's in the picture on episode 26, but that wouldn't count for much in determining his fate either.

[0beron]

It doesn't look like [Un-Tommy] in the picture on episode 26, but that wouldn't count for much in determining his fate either.

I believe he is the one on Wanda's right, in the longer robe. That is the same kind of robe Lord Firebaugh wears, and he seems to be wearing the same thing in this update.