Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

[drachefly]

... didn't happen.

[drachefly]

Whispri, about those 'posing as a different kind of caster' bets - what do you think of her disguising herself as a different person, who happens to be a different kind of caster? Does that count? It occurs to me I had classified that in my mind as not being 'posing as a different kind of caster' because there was no attempt to reassociate 'Wanda' to some other type of caster, but you might have approached it differently.

[Whispri]

Posing as Lady Jagged Icebranch the Shockamancer (Or indeed, Staffa (or Atomic) Firebaugh the Hat Magician) would require pretending to be a Shockamancer, so...

[drachefly]

No, I mean if she disguises herself as someone else they already know. She's got the same general build as Jack, for instance, so a little out-of-class casting and she could disguise herself as him as long as she kept her mouth shut. Would that count?

[Whispri]

Hmmmmmmmm...... It may well count. There's certainly an argument to be made. After all, if she disguised herself as Gillian, wouldn't she be posing as a Warlord who happened to be Gillian? Wouldn't everyone who failed to see through the disguise believe her to be a Warlord? The same should apply to Caster specialities. It's not the sort of thing I had in mind though.

[bladestorm]

I am willing to bet 5Q that Caesar becomes a member of a Side other than Transylvito, limited to either Turning or starting a new Side. Story-wise, there's a lot that could screw me on this. If he challenges Don to personal combat (heavy hints to that), he could either defeat Don and stay with TV as its ruler, or he could be defeated and croak, or he could be banished and be a barbarian. Or he may go on another suicide mission and get croaked. Or something happens to Bunny and he loses it (berserker button jealous rage).

[mortissimus]

I want to bet 10Q that Jack is indeed dead as of page 105. Dead, croaked, pushing up daisies, pining for the fjords. No illusion or trickery. In order to make it fair to all those who wants to loose their Quatloos to their grief, I am willing to bet this with up to five different forumites. So five possible bets of 10Q to 10Q on Jacks demise. In order to make sure the bet has an end, for him not to have been croaked on page 105 a live (not decrypted or uncroaked) Jack needs to be shown before the end of book 2.

In an unrelated bet, I want to bet 5Q that if Jack is dead he will be decrypted. If he is dead and is decrypted I win 5Q, if he is dead but is not decrypted (lets say by the end of book 2 to make sure there is an end even if somebody puts up a mobile Jack corpse movement service) the one betting against me wins 5Q. If he did not die on page 105 due to some mancy or trickery this bet is voided.

[bladestorm]

In an unrelated bet, I want to bet 5Q that if Jack is dead he will be decrypted. If he is dead and is decrypted I win 5Q, if he is dead but is not decrypted (lets say by the end of book 2 to make sure there is an end even if somebody puts up a mobile Jack corpse movement service) the one betting against me wins 5Q. If he did not die on page 105 due to some mancy or trickery this bet is voided.

I'm down for this one.

[erwaro]

I will lay out my amateur predictamancy for those who wish to disagree:

10 quatloo says that no casters are involved in stopping the fire. That is, if you bet against me, and a caster is involved in putting out the Spacerock Inferno, you win. Bet concludes when the inferno does. If we don't find out when the inferno dies, or in the immediate aftermath (say, 5 relevant updates), no bet resolution, and not q are exchanged. Parson doesn't count as a caster for the purpose of this bet, obviously. Actually, I'll go ahead and say that you win if you bet against me and Parson does something magical to put out the fire.

As a separate bet, my 10 quatloo to your 20 says that Parson puts out the fire by ordering the city razed. That is, if you bet against me, you win 10 quatloo if the inferno is put out by methods other than the city being ordered razed. I win 20 q if the fire gets put out by the city being ordered razed (it doesn't necessarily have to be Parson who issues the order, though I'd be surprised if it was someone else).

[Whispri]

I will lay out my amateur predictamancy for those who wish to disagree:

10 quatloo says that no casters are involved in stopping the fire. That is, if you bet against me, and a caster is involved in putting out the Spacerock Inferno, you win. Bet concludes when the inferno does. If we don't find out when the inferno dies, or in the immediate aftermath (say, 5 relevant updates), no bet resolution, and not q are exchanged. Parson doesn't count as a caster for the purpose of this bet, obviously. Actually, I'll go ahead and say that you win if you bet against me and Parson does something magical to put out the fire.

As a separate bet, my 10 quatloo to your 20 says that Parson puts out the fire by ordering the city razed. That is, if you bet against me, you win 10 quatloo if the inferno is put out by methods other than the city being ordered razed. I win 20 q if the fire gets put out by the city being ordered razed (it doesn't necessarily have to be Parson who issues the order, though I'd be surprised if it was someone else).

I'll take the first bet.

[bladestorm]

I am betting 15Q that Parson's response to the Inferno situation has nothing to do with changing capitols.

[drachefly]

I bet my 10 to your 5 that Parson's plan doesn't involve changing GK's capitol

[bladestorm]

Weird. The two top quatloo earners are both betting against capitol switching....

[drachefly]

But not very much!

[drachefly]

Okay, Bladestorm. You got me on Charlie being a Carnymancer. What level of proof do you require that Charlie isn't secretly Olive?

[bladestorm]

Okay, Bladestorm. You got me on Charlie being a Carnymancer. What level of proof do you require that Charlie isn't secretly Olive?

Looks like this should be proof enough. That's what 5q from me? I'm going to have to go back through the wagers placed.... it seems a lot of wagers may have just been resolved.

But my longshot of Charlie being a carny finally paid off.

[drachefly]

There are a couple about the downfall of Haffaton that look pretty much resolved (Charlie / King County did not play a major role). I'm leaving them open until the side is completely gone. Especially the Charlie one. He could have been guiding things.

I also found that I'd already won one about Ace turning voluntarily. And the less dramatic side of the 1000-1 bet.

Further back, we've seen the 4th arkentool, so if we can figure out whether it uses signamancy, we can resolve another one. Episode 62 gives us everything we know about the shoes, and none of it looks like signamancy. Dollars to donuts* we haven't seen the end of them, but this might be enough to go on. Zeroberon, do you concede to five-thirteen?

* no longer a good phrase since donuts are roughly a dollar. It'll be good again after another order of magnitude of inflation, I guess.

[bladestorm]

I need to find my crystal ball and make more predictions. I had a fleeting glimpse of top quatloo holder for a few minutes.

[bladestorm]

Actually, looking over the list, others may have been resolved. (copied straight from the first post)

Sixty has bet me 10 that Parson will prevent himself from having access to the bracer during Book 2. (He calculated the odds of rushing the portal with various stacks)

(Oh)beron bets zeroberon 10q that Jojo was not a part of the Kingworld (*hurk! hawk! pa-ting!*) spell. (Jojo would be unnecessary since Charlie could also supply the carny juice, though arguments could be made to keep this one open).

[drachefly]

I agree on you with the probable outcomes, and it's likely we'll never see anything more explicit on the second, but I think it's fair to leave them open.

If people were mostly strung out to their betting limit and needed to win quatloos to make more bets, I'd be in a much bigger rush to resolve matters.