Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Fri Apr 04, 2014 2:31 pm

I'd be fine with the straight bets. His doom counter is still ticking. Especially since Digdoug went through the effort to facilitate his clandestine relations, and since he upgraded the tower traps without being ordered to do so. The King may be confident that carnymancy can destroy even the best laid plans, but not as badly as a dirtamancer with good intentions who is not in on the big picture.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Godzfirefly » Fri Apr 04, 2014 2:43 pm

bladestorm wrote:I'd be fine with the straight bets. His doom counter is still ticking. Especially since Digdoug went through the effort to facilitate his clandestine relations, and since he upgraded the tower traps without being ordered to do so. The King may be confident that carnymancy can destroy even the best laid plans, but not as badly as a dirtamancer with good intentions who is not in on the big picture.

Straight bet it is, then. 25:25
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Mon Apr 07, 2014 6:56 am

Shoot. I knew that making that complicated was a bad idea, especially since you were about equally confident - this would be a minor adjustment at most. I was just trying to figure out what to do. I see two simple things I can do to iron it out.

1) When you say 25q at 80%, we don't use 25q as the scale itself, but choose the scale so that 25q is your actual max bet if someone picks an opposite 100%. In this case, that would have raised the bet right back up to around 24, which would have solved the problem right there.

2) I can allow fractional quatloos so we don't end up with rounding problems.

Filling the bet up to the max automatically is a bad idea - we lose the property that you want to offer the probability you actually believe. You could extract more from someone offering a 90% bet you weren't that confident in, by artificially raising your probability of that occurring as close as possible to 90% while remaining under. It'd be a mess to fix. The only solution I can see to that is if we made them all pools. Then you wouldn't just be matching one bet, but everyone's, including bets that people haven't made yet. That would help, but at the cost of complexity. On the other hand, the complexity would be all on my end. Maybe we'd match bets from the outside in?

Anyway, with the original offered bets and these fixes, the bet would be 23.9:21.6. I'll still put you up for 25q even since you said so, but I think this fixed it enough that the major problem went away.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby spriteless » Tue Apr 15, 2014 11:28 am

I want to bet 10 quidloo that Prince Creen will be struck by lightning by the end of this story. Any takers for any of that?

Because this thread is more fun than the speculation threads.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lilwik » Tue Apr 15, 2014 3:10 pm

spriteless wrote:I want to bet 10 quidloo that Prince Creen will be struck by lightning by the end of this story.
I'll take that bet.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Mrtyuh » Sun Apr 20, 2014 6:07 am

Nnelg wrote:I'll take these bets, if I didn't miss someone else taking them -with one modification. If Ansom doesn't turn to or escape from Faq directly, or get dusted by a unit of Faq or GK; but instead is transferred to or dusted by a third party (like Charlescomm or Transylvito) or put 'on ice' in any fashion, then the bet is void. Deal?

Wow, I can't believe I haven't posted in this thread since July of 2012. :shock: If you're still interested, I accept your modification.

On the bright side, I now have 220 quatloos to bet, which is good because I appear to be fairly bad at this and am currently 20 quatloos in the hole. For the record, the 2 bets I was planning to make way back when were:

I bet 10q Charlie can intercept Thinkagrams. I will concede the bet if it has not been proven before the End of Book 4.

I bet 10q that Wanda will lead an army of Decrypted against Haffaton before the End of Book 7.

I've finally got that Word document empty. Of course neither of those are currently on the table. The first has already been proven, and the second is now impossible. Well, I was half right. Also, the following bet is now invalid:

I bet 10q that Dame Branch will not be alive when Wanda arrives at Faq.

I was right. She croaked before Wanda reached the City of Faq. Okay, enough patting myself on the back; let's get back into the game. I believe my current open bets are now:

For some fun, I’ll bet 5q that Barry survived the fall. Bet void if Rob hasn’t acknowledged the joke by the end of Book 3. (Sometimes you just need to do something silly.)

I bet 10q that Ashna will be summoned to Erfworld, and she and a fitter Parson will become an item.

drachefly wrote:Of course - though since you conceded I won't pay out double, just reverse the outcome.

Mrtyuh's bet that Parson x Sylvia will be a thing is pretty much resolved, but I'll wait for his word before calling it so as to avoid a repeat of last time.

(14 months later) Definitely. Completely resolved.

drachefly wrote:NEXT POOL:
Location of first panel of book 3. 20q to buy in. At most one guess per day. I won't guess until tomorrow. Most specific correct answer wins.

Jetstone encampment. It will start with the words, "It's the little things that make a difference sometimes." The last panel of the page will show Tramennis.

Okay, I really need to stop it with the specific bets with the extra conditions. For example, I would argue that Charlie did have a significant role with the fall of Haffaton, but I now doubt that is what led the Hippiemancers allying with the Thinkamancers. I need to start making them concise and short term. I still have 200q after the pool buyin, so I'll bet 20q that Delkey will break alliance with Homekey during the battle. I don't really have anything else at the moment, but the main comic will be returning in June, so I'm sure I'll have a ton of crazy theories before too much longer. Hopefully RL won't interfere too much, and I'll actually be able to participate a bit.
Last edited by Mrtyuh on Mon Apr 21, 2014 2:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Whispri » Sun Apr 20, 2014 7:05 am

Mrtyuh wrote:Okay, I really need to stop it with the specific bets with the extra conditions. For example, I would argue that Charlie did have a significant role with the fall of Haffaton, but I know doubt that is what led the Hippiemancers allying with the Thinkamancers. I need to start making them concise and short term. I still have 200q after the pool buyin, so I'll bet 20q that Delkey will break alliance with Homekey during the battle. I don't really have anything else at the moment, but the main comic will be returning in June, so I'm sure I'll have a ton of crazy theories before too much longer. Hopefully RL won't interfere too much, and I'll actually be able to participate a bit.

I'll bite on that. The 'during' thing.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Sun Apr 20, 2014 3:45 pm

Darn, too slow to get in on that bet. Ah well.

I'll take the 10q on Ashna then.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Mon Apr 21, 2014 3:29 pm

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:Darn, too slow to get in on that bet. Ah well.

I'll take the 10q on Ashna then.

Is there any time limit on that one? It could remain unresolved until the final page of Erfworld....
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Mon Apr 21, 2014 3:40 pm

I suppose we should put a time limit of some kind on that, just to keep the quatloo being tied up forever. Shall we put the end of book 3 for her at least being summoned, and if she is summoned by then, the end of book 4 for them to become an 'item'.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Mon Apr 21, 2014 3:42 pm

Actually, is there a book 4? For some reason I keep thinking the entire story is only supposed to be 3 books long, but that might just be because the 3rd book seems to be about Charlie and Parson fighting directly, and if one or the other wins, the story is basically over. No one else in Erf is equipped to deal with Parson. You know, unless she is summoned as an opposing perfect warlord or something, but I still don't know that she'd be a match, not with all the advantages Parson already has built up.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Keighvin1 » Mon Apr 21, 2014 5:59 pm

Well, I don't know if he was joking, but Rob mentioned having a working title for book 5 in the Kickstarter comments.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Mon Apr 21, 2014 7:58 pm

The Ashna bet goes into 'distant future' so it's not actually tying anything up. Also, no one is near their credit limit. I'll put it down with no listed time limit, but I would be happy if you two agreed on one.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Mrtyuh » Tue Apr 22, 2014 3:58 am

I already turned down one person offering to take the bet with an end date of Book 4, I believe. I doubt she'd be summoned in Book 3. I think Book 3 will focus more on resolving the local matters, such as Jetstone and Transylvito, before story starts moving more in the direction of a ErfWorld War between Parson and Charlie. I think Parson's gaming group being summoned is something that will happen at the half-way point of the story or later. Unfortunately I have no idea how long the story will be, especially since Rob has admitted that creep keeps setting in and making things longer than he originally envisioned (not that I'm complaining about that). It is intended as a bit of a "how the story will end" bet, which does put it years in the future. That being the case, as drachefly mentioned, you can use future quatloos on it, so it doesn't actually eat into your current bank.

As I said in my last post, though, I'll try to keep my future bets in the nearer term, so we don't have to wait multiple books to see them resolved.

Edit: Immediately after writing that, I remember a couple of bets I thought of and prove myself a liar.

I bet 20q that Queen Jillian will use the Western Giants to attack Transylvito before the end of Book 3.
I bet 20q that NuFaq will be destroyed by Charlie, utilizing the Western Giants in part or whole, before the end of Book 4.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Tue Apr 22, 2014 12:41 pm

Well, book 3 is the hamsterdance vs the Charlie Foxtrot, so I think there will be some action between the two. Still, I don't mind not having a time limit.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Mrtyuh » Tue Apr 22, 2014 10:58 pm

Yeah, but they're still pretending with each other that they aren't enemies, and Charlie is still attempting to act through intermediaries. I imagine that either in Book 3 or early in Book 4 they're going to drop the pretense. If you'll excuse a terrible pun, I think they'll still be dancing around the issue in Book 3.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Mrtyuh » Thu Apr 24, 2014 2:07 am

Well, I have to concede my bet to Whispri. While I was correct about Prince Creen plotting betrayal, he little boop had to wait until after the battle to act. So close, yet so far.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Mrtyuh » Fri Apr 25, 2014 4:42 am

Okay, time to try to earn back some quatloos. I made a big complicated prediction in the reactions thread to Digdoug - Episode 17 (first response on page 4). For the sake of keeping it simple, though, I will only bet the following:

I bet 20q that Digdoug will build a lightning trap at the capital of Charlescomm.

Okay, I'll stop spamming this thread.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby wih » Fri Apr 25, 2014 4:43 am

Mrtyuh wrote:Okay, time to try to earn back some quatloos. I made a big complicated prediction in the reactions thread to Digdoug - Episode 17 (first response on page 4). For the sake of keeping it simple, though, I will only bet the following:

I bet 20q that Digdoug will build a lightning trap at the capital of Charlescomm.

Okay, I'll stop spamming this thread.


I'll take it all.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Fri Apr 25, 2014 8:17 pm

No fair posting bets at 5 in the morning when I can't take them :P

wih is about to make an easy 20q :P
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