Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Mrtyuh » Sat Apr 26, 2014 3:12 am

I post when I can. Considering that I work 6 or 7 days a week, my days often run long and I often have to work even after I get home, it can't be helped. Between that and my natural lurker tendencies, there's a reason I often vanish from the boards for months at a time. On the other hand, it allows me to pay my bills with enough left over to donate to Rob for a story, so I really have no right to complain.

Anyway, this is all just for fun, and it's not like anyone else is making any Predictions, so I'll make the same bet again, for the same amount. I don't know if it's against the rules, but I'll give Taikei no Yuurei first crack at it, since he was the second to respond. If he doesn't take it within 24 hours of the time stamp on this message, it's open to anyone who's interested.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Sat Apr 26, 2014 6:06 pm

Oooh, story. Very cool. Shame I'm in the middle of trying to buy a house or I would very much consider getting one as well. Sadly, roof is important, so no story time.

That aside, I'll take the bet. I don't see Digdoug building traps for Charlie like that. Digdoug isn't the only dirtamancer out there (though they are supposedly rare), so it isn't like he couldn't hire someone else to do the lightning traps. Hardly seems like it'd be a total revelation for him.

Then again, maybe he just never bothered to put 2 and 2 together. He is smart, but he isn't Parson.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Mrtyuh » Sun Apr 27, 2014 4:04 am

Yep, roof is very important; good luck with that. I don't know if you are going through a bank or what, but, if so, I hope you get a good rate, and I hope you don't run into any unexpected hiccups in the process.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby spriteless » Wed Apr 30, 2014 4:24 pm

Haha! I wish I had bet more!
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby MadZuri » Thu May 01, 2014 5:33 am

Instead of continuing to get angry at the response thread, I'll make a bet. I am willing to bet up to 50q that Dove is NOT a traitor, at 95% confidence, however you want to run the numbers...
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Thu May 01, 2014 6:36 am

Hehe, way to put your quatloo where your mouth is :P

That said, I agree that she likely isn't a traitor, so no bet from me :)
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby spriteless » Thu May 01, 2014 9:16 am

I'll gamble the 2.5 quatloo against that. Are we allowed fractional quatloo?

I mean, I think you're right, but I can afford those sweet odds.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Godzfirefly » Thu May 01, 2014 2:22 pm

spriteless wrote:I'll gamble the 2.5 quatloo against that. Are we allowed fractional quatloo?

I mean, I think you're right, but I can afford those sweet odds.


He didn't say he was betting 50q at 95% odds...he said 95% confidence. Meaning, you'd have to place a bet to match his amount, and then say your own confidence level. Then, you'd use the confidence formula placed earlier in this thread to figure out how many quatloo you were each actually betting. (Indeed, confidence betting is designed to avoid exactly what you're trying to do.)

viewtopic.php?p=108087#p108087
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby spriteless » Thu May 01, 2014 4:55 pm

Well, I am 25% 'confidant' that Dove is treacherous. I am 50% confident that she had calculated an escapt plan.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby MadZuri » Thu May 01, 2014 7:45 pm

spriteless wrote:Well, I am 25% 'confidant' that Dove is treacherous. I am 50% confident that she had calculated an escapt plan.

You still need to state how much of my bet you are willing to take. The whole 50q? if so, it is my 17 q versus your 3 q... [edit: redid math]. Sure, I'll take that bet at those odds. You might want to consider only placing bets that you estimate the probability being over 50%.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby spriteless » Thu May 01, 2014 8:25 pm

I am fine with my 3 versus your 17. Sorry for being so difficult about this.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby GWvsJohn » Thu May 01, 2014 10:30 pm

I'm putting up 50q that Bucky is the reason Creen knows about the cooking of the books.

I don't know how all this confidence interval crap works, but this is a 1 to 1 bet :)
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lilwik » Thu May 01, 2014 11:05 pm

GWvsJohn wrote:I'm putting up 50q that Bucky is the reason Creen knows about the cooking of the books.
I'll take 10q of that bet. I can't see any possible motive for her to do that.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Godzfirefly » Thu May 01, 2014 11:40 pm

GWvsJohn wrote:I'm putting up 50q that Bucky is the reason Creen knows about the cooking of the books.

I don't know how all this confidence interval crap works, but this is a 1 to 1 bet :)


Ill take 25 of that.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Whispri » Fri May 02, 2014 1:30 am

I dunno if anyone will bite with some of GWvsJohn's bet still open, but: Eight quatloo sez that if there was, in fact, a traitor, Bucky was that traitor.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Mrtyuh » Fri May 02, 2014 2:40 am

Okay, it's a new month, and I have 10 more quatloos in credit. To recap:

Current credit: 110q
Current balance: -40q

Open bets:

I bet 10q that Ansom will not be turned while Faq's prisoner.
Nnelg wrote:I'll take these bets, if I didn't miss someone else taking them -with one modification. If Ansom doesn't turn to or escape from Faq directly, or get dusted by a unit of Faq or GK; but instead is transferred to or dusted by a third party (like Charlescomm or Transylvito) or put 'on ice' in any fashion, then the bet is void. Deal?

I accepted Nnelg's clarification and am still waiting to see if he is still interested. Given how long I made him wait, though, it's only fair if I give him at least an equal amount of time. So this one's in limbo.

For some fun, I’ll bet 5q that Barry survived the fall. Bet void if Rob hasn’t acknowledged the joke by the end of Book 3. (Sometimes you just need to do something silly.)

I bet 20q that Queen Jillian will use the Western Giants to attack Transylvito before the end of Book 3.

I bet 20q that NuFaq will be destroyed by Charlie, utilizing the Western Giants in part or whole, before the end of Book 4.

GWvsJohn wrote:I'm putting up 50q that Bucky is the reason Creen knows about the cooking of the books.

I don't know how all this confidence interval crap works, but this is a 1 to 1 bet :)

I'll take the remaining 15q.

Whispri wrote:I dunno if anyone will bite with some of GWvsJohn's bet still open, but: Eight quatloo sez that if there was, in fact, a traitor, Bucky was that traitor.

What if there is no traitor? I'll admit, I'm betting as much for what I'm hoping for as for logic or what I'll think will happen. Right now, Carnymancy seems overpowered. I would like there to be some checks. For example, if a adept-class Carny cooks the books, it will fool a novice-class Moneymancer, it may fool a adept-class Moneymancer, but it has no chance of fooling a master-class Moneymancer. I hope that's what happened, because it will make Carnymancy more reasonable.

Okay, one more bet. Unfortunately, it is another of the distant future bets, but I can't think of anything else. Hopefully, once Book 3 starts and Book 0 restarts next month, I'll be able to think of nearer term bets. Anyway, while this could be an end of the series type bet, I will give it an end date, but that end date will still be pretty far in the future.

I bet 20q that Charlie will be croaked by poison before the end of Book 5.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Godzfirefly » Fri May 02, 2014 3:17 am

I'd like to bet 10q that the main character of the next Kickstarter story will be a caster, rather than a warlord, non-caster ruler, or other non-caster. 1:1 bets only, please.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Mrtyuh » Fri May 02, 2014 3:35 am

Godzfirefly wrote:I'd like to bet 10q that the main character of the next Kickstarter story will be a caster, rather than a warlord, non-caster ruler, or other non-caster. 1:1 bets only, please.

I'll take that. I figure I have at least even odds, which is probably better than the odds on my own bets. Also, this should be resolved within a couple of weeks, so that's also better than I usually do with my bets.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Whispri » Fri May 02, 2014 3:37 am

Mrtyuh wrote:
Whispri wrote:I dunno if anyone will bite with some of GWvsJohn's bet still open, but: Eight quatloo sez that if there was, in fact, a traitor, Bucky was that traitor.

What if there is no traitor? I'll admit, I'm betting as much for what I'm hoping for as for logic or what I'll think will happen. Right now, Carnymancy seems overpowered. I would like there to be some checks. For example, if a adept-class Carny cooks the books, it will fool a novice-class Moneymancer, it may fool a adept-class Moneymancer, but it has no chance of fooling a master-class Moneymancer. I hope that's what happened, because it will make Carnymancy more reasonable.

The bet would be void if there isn't a traitor, no quatloo exchanged.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Mrtyuh » Fri May 02, 2014 3:47 am

Whispri wrote:
Mrtyuh wrote:
Whispri wrote:I dunno if anyone will bite with some of GWvsJohn's bet still open, but: Eight quatloo sez that if there was, in fact, a traitor, Bucky was that traitor.

What if there is no traitor? I'll admit, I'm betting as much for what I'm hoping for as for logic or what I'll think will happen. Right now, Carnymancy seems overpowered. I would like there to be some checks. For example, if a adept-class Carny cooks the books, it will fool a novice-class Moneymancer, it may fool a adept-class Moneymancer, but it has no chance of fooling a master-class Moneymancer. I hope that's what happened, because it will make Carnymancy more reasonable.

The bet would be void if there isn't a traitor, no quatloo exchanged.

I'd be fine with that, but I don't want to be denying others the opportunity to claim bets, especially since I'm basically betting for a draw. So, let's say that if nobody else has claimed this bet within 48 hours of the timestamp on this reply, I'll accept your wager.
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