Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Whispri » Sat May 31, 2014 1:06 pm

mortissimus wrote:
Whispri bet mortissimus 4q that Dove Barstool's plan in Digdoug part 1 will work.

I think I won this one, even though the terms are rather imprecise.

That hinges on one question: Do we know what her plan actually was? All we know about what happened to Homekey is the story she wants DigDoug to hear. Dove Barstool, true or false...
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lilwik » Sat May 31, 2014 2:43 pm

Godzfirefly wrote:Also, I'd bet Bladestorm 25q that Posbrake would survive the story. I accept that he has not and yield the quatloos.
It's pretty awkward to start collecting bets before the story is properly finished. The odds of Posbrake surviving have gone way down, as have the odds of Dove's plan working, but we have no idea what surprises might be waiting for us in part 2. It would be pretty awkward to settle bets now only to have Posbrake pop up again in part 2 and reveal that this has all been part of an elaborate ruse that he had pulled off with Dove's help. The fact that this is officially a part means that this is not truly the end of the story; rather this is a single story that is divided into at least two parts and we should probably treat it that way.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby mortissimus » Sat May 31, 2014 2:52 pm

Godzfirefly wrote:
Godzfirefly wrote:
mortissimus wrote:10q on Charlescom taking the City of Homekey while Digdoug was unconscious. Bet is cancelled if we don't find out what happened before the end of the current story about Digdoug.

Accepted!

It looks like this is cancelled, since we don't know if Charlescom or Delkey or Numloch did the final deed, unless you want to extend the bet until the end of Part 2, which is a LONG way away.


If its fine with you, we can extend it. I think the case for Charlescom is strong and I am nowhere near betting limit. But if you want to cancel, we will, it was in the terms.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby mortissimus » Sat May 31, 2014 3:01 pm

Whispri wrote:
mortissimus wrote:
Whispri bet mortissimus 4q that Dove Barstool's plan in Digdoug part 1 will work.

I think I won this one, even though the terms are rather imprecise.

That hinges on one question: Do we know what her plan actually was? All we know about what happened to Homekey is the story she wants DigDoug to hear. Dove Barstool, true or false...


Was that what you meant when you wrote the bet, if her personal and/or secret plan works? I thought you meant the plan presented to Posbrake about attacking himself to avoid the prediction. But I took an imprecise bet, so if you did mean her plan for herself, then we can keep it open.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Whispri » Sat May 31, 2014 9:12 pm

mortissimus wrote:
Whispri wrote:That hinges on one question: Do we know what her plan actually was? All we know about what happened to Homekey is the story she wants DigDoug to hear. Dove Barstool, true or false...

Was that what you meant when you wrote the bet, if her personal and/or secret plan works? I thought you meant the plan presented to Posbrake about attacking himself to avoid the prediction. But I took an imprecise bet, so if you did mean her plan for herself, then we can keep it open.

I did mean the fake attack plan, but not if she sabotaged it herself.

Certainly if we'd clarified things, I'd have said I meant her plan for Homekey, which, if she was on the level, was the fake attack thing.

My feeling is that if she was intending to help the Side of Homekey, she failed and I lost. But if she bore them malice, that's another matter entirely, as the fake attack plan would actually have been the 'help Charlie take the city' plan.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Godzfirefly » Sat May 31, 2014 10:59 pm

Lilwik wrote:
Godzfirefly wrote:Also, I'd bet Bladestorm 25q that Posbrake would survive the story. I accept that he has not and yield the quatloos.
It's pretty awkward to start collecting bets before the story is properly finished. The odds of Posbrake surviving have gone way down, as have the odds of Dove's plan working, but we have no idea what surprises might be waiting for us in part 2. It would be pretty awkward to settle bets now only to have Posbrake pop up again in part 2 and reveal that this has all been part of an elaborate ruse that he had pulled off with Dove's help. The fact that this is officially a part means that this is not truly the end of the story; rather this is a single story that is divided into at least two parts and we should probably treat it that way.


First: For the purpose of this bet, I'd always meant Part 1. In terms of Kickstarter stories, Part 1 is a story and Part 2 is a separately purchased story.
Second: I'm not collecting, I'm yielding. I am willing to admit that Posbrake is dead based on the most recent story's revelations.
Third: You're not involved in this bet...What right have you to tell me not to concede?
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Godzfirefly » Sat May 31, 2014 11:02 pm

mortissimus wrote:If its fine with you, we can extend it. I think the case for Charlescom is strong and I am nowhere near betting limit. But if you want to cancel, we will, it was in the terms.


I'm willing to extend it, even if it is unlikely that we learn the specific fate of Homekey. I suspect that bumps this bet into the realms of "future quatloos" anyway.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Mon Jun 02, 2014 10:20 pm

Godzfirefly wrote: In addition, she isn't even trying to prevent Digdoug from leaving in less than a single day, so she's arguably coming out more-or-less even on the Rand that she spotted him without him asking.

Well, based on what Sizemore has said in the past, I think Digdoug did more than a Rand's work fixing the pump, but I don't think she was exceedingly unfair about it really.

Also, I believe I had a bet with someone about Dove having lied at some point in Homekey, but nothing has surfaced to suggest she lied at all. I'd like to claim that bet.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lilwik » Mon Jun 02, 2014 10:56 pm

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:I believe I had a bet with someone about Dove having lied at some point in Homekey, but nothing has surfaced to suggest she lied at all. I'd like to claim that bet.
I agree that Dove is looking pretty honest right now so you can consider that bet practically won, but not technically won because the story isn't over yet. This is clearly just the end of the first part of the story. I'm pretty sure that details about the end of Homekey will be revealed in the second part. If I concede that bet now then I won't be able to claim it in the unlikely event that it turns out that Dove really did lie, and I really want to be able to do that. Unfortunately it seems this bet is going to be more long-term than I expected when I made the bet since there won't be another Digdoug episode for a while, so I'm open to cancelling the bet.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby GWvsJohn » Thu Jun 05, 2014 8:28 am

GWvsJohn wrote:I'm putting up 50q that Bucky is the reason Creen knows about the cooking of the books.

I don't know how all this confidence interval crap works, but this is a 1 to 1 bet :)


For Lilwik, Godz and Myrt who took this bet, I'm inclined to leave it open until Chapter 2 of Digdoug starts. If it looks like we will get the answers to what really happened in Chapter 2, then we can wait and see. If Chapter 2 seems to have totally moved on from the fall of Delkey, I'll say it was a loss for me.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Godzfirefly » Thu Jun 05, 2014 10:55 am

I consider that reasonable, GW.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Fri Jun 06, 2014 7:13 am

Godzfirefly wrote:
Lilwik wrote:
Godzfirefly wrote:Also, I'd bet Bladestorm 25q that Posbrake would survive the story. I accept that he has not and yield the quatloos.
It's pretty awkward to start collecting bets before the story is properly finished. The odds of Posbrake surviving have gone way down, as have the odds of Dove's plan working, but we have no idea what surprises might be waiting for us in part 2. It would be pretty awkward to settle bets now only to have Posbrake pop up again in part 2 and reveal that this has all been part of an elaborate ruse that he had pulled off with Dove's help. The fact that this is officially a part means that this is not truly the end of the story; rather this is a single story that is divided into at least two parts and we should probably treat it that way.


First: For the purpose of this bet, I'd always meant Part 1. In terms of Kickstarter stories, Part 1 is a story and Part 2 is a separately purchased story.
Second: I'm not collecting, I'm yielding. I am willing to admit that Posbrake is dead based on the most recent story's revelations.
Third: You're not involved in this bet...What right have you to tell me not to concede?

If he wants to concede, I get the 25q now. If it turns out that Posbrake's doom timer didn't actually go off, we can negotiate a reversal at that point.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby mortissimus » Thu Jun 26, 2014 3:39 pm

The betting thread on page 2? How are people ever going to find it?

This is not good, betting sharpens the minds and the theories, so lets get it started again.

Now, I am reasonably confident that Forecastle can not get a Seafarer special, so I am willing to bet 10 quatloos against 5 quatloos that Forecastle will not get any Seafarer special during the story of Duke Forecastle.

If this story turns into a multi-part story, then for the purposes of this bet "the story" is the current part that may or may not become Duke Forecastle, part 1.

So, any takers?
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lipkin » Thu Jun 26, 2014 3:57 pm

mortissimus wrote:The betting thread on page 2? How are people ever going to find it?

This is not good, betting sharpens the minds and the theories, so lets get it started again.

Now, I am reasonably confident that Forecastle can not get a Seafarer special, so I am willing to bet 10 quatloos against 5 quatloos that Forecastle will not get any Seafarer special during the story of Duke Forecastle.

If this story turns into a multi-part story, then for the purposes of this bet "the story" is the current part that may or may not become Duke Forecastle, part 1.

So, any takers?

No, but I'd make the same bet as you. I'll also put up 10 that he can't/doesn't get a seafarer special, against a bet of 5.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby spriteless » Thu Jun 26, 2014 5:15 pm

... I'll bet 10q that whether ordinary human (not including natural-allies nor casters, but including leaders) units can train up specials will be addressed in this story, and settled either way.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Godzfirefly » Thu Jun 26, 2014 5:21 pm

spriteless wrote:... I'll bet 10q that whether ordinary human (not including natural-allies nor casters, but including leaders) units can train up specials will be addressed in this story, and settled either way.

I'll take that bet, saying that it will not be directly addressed any farther than it already has been. My 10q vs yours.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lipkin » Thu Jun 26, 2014 5:53 pm

By story I assume you mean Forecastle.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby CarniDollMancer » Thu Jun 26, 2014 9:37 pm

I will take mortissimus' bet about Forecastle. This will be the first bet that I have made... actually I will accept Lipkin's as well if I am allowed.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Nakedkali » Fri Jun 27, 2014 6:23 am

Mortissimus's bet has been taken, so I will take Lipkin's bet. Artemis was pretty determined, but we never saw her get a special. I think it's not possible.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Fri Jun 27, 2014 6:52 am

Uh, you agree with both Lipkin and Mortissimus, so no bet there.

I won't take that bet, but I am 90% confident that Forecastle's learning results in effective improvement in his performance at sea.
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