4th Arkentool covers Signamancy?

[BLANDCorporatio]

But I think the point of disagreement is that we (or at least I) consider the nature of the arkentools to be more than a detail.

Where detail is something that has no big significance to the world. Yep I think that's the root of all disagreement here.

My guess, again, just a guess, is that Book 1 was planned fairly well. The aftermath wasn't, imo the summer updates and "Love is a Battlefield" were struggling to find a new direction. And I would not be surprised if said direction has yet to cristalize (even though various important looking aspects were revealed, like TGMtTA, the Predictamancer conspiracy, stuff that looks like thematic foreshadowing Fate vs Free Will ...). To stop dodging the question, I would not be surprised if the fourth Arkentool is undefined right now.

That's just me though, being contrarian.

[Kreistor]

For book 1, the hammer was unimportant. But that doesn't mean for the overarching plot it is unimportant.

And part of why I advocate that the Hammer's powers are broader in scope than mere Fate is that it is important, but the current powers are irrelevant to that importance. Rob can choose them to do anything now, and it will not harm the climax, because they will do far more when required. He has already opened that door. See below.

The Arkenpliers, however, were made vital to Story 2. The antagonists' plot in Book 2 is "How do we deal with the Arkenpliers?" In this case, the Arkenpliers capacity vs. the Decrypted needed specific definition, and the knowledge of the RCC2 about those powers needed to be strictly defined so the plot could be defined. The complexity of Book 2 required a lot more detail in working out who had which information to ensure the various factions reacted correctly.

We may see that the Hammer will be more vital, but I think Stanley's consideration that he had never really worked on uncovering what it could do is the set up for a future book, not the fact it can use Shockmancy. This opens the door for the Hammer to add the powers necessary for a future book's plot, and sets the stage for Stanley to become a greater threat to Wanda, the world... and himself.

[Housellama]

I think that Rob, as a writer, has his details laid out the way he wants. The guy has a plan.

Writing isn't that simple. Characters are not slaves the way you may think. You may lay out the foundation of a plot, and then begin writing the story, but discover part way along that your characters aren't getting to where you want them to. Some things take longer than you intended. Some characters can't make the decision you needed them to.

(A lot of twollboop)

Does Rob need to know what Book 3 is about? Absolutely not. is he, right now, limited in how parson handles this world? No. He has committed to absolutely nothing about the future. So, if he had an intended overall arc, it's irrelevant. he hasn't committed to it yet, and he can abadon and change it if he decides he wants a different direction.

My best friend is a professional writer. She doesn't have another job. She does writing/game design to pay her way on the world. And she does it well. She's not (yet) a novelist where she sits down and spends years on the same thing. No, she's a freelancer. That means she actually has to work for a living. She can't just while away days thinking about something. She has deadlines and has to produce. She has written a novel and is currently shopping it, but she did that in between paying projects. Only when she got an editor to sell it did she have the ability to sit down and dedicate time to it.

Having been one of her best friends for years, I've become intimately familiar with her process, both for project and long term work. I can tell you this. Professional authors don't just wing it. Sure, maybe some of them can, but sitting down and hoping for things to write themselves is a good way to waste time. Yes, with proper preparation, characters and stories will write themselves, but that doesn't just happen unless you get very lucky. My friend, and wouldn't hesitate to say most authors, have a pretty good idea of where they are going before they get started.

My friend had the idea for her novel for years. She sat down and outlined everything. She had a pretty good idea what was going to go into each chapter before she started putting words on the page. She knew who her characters were and where they were going before she started. Did they change and grow as she wrote? Yes. Did at any point she just sit down and say "screw this I'm just going to write and see what happens?" Hell no. She's a working author. She knows that approach usually gets you nowhere. It's good for generating ideas, but when you're working on a project, you need to know where you're going before you can get anywhere.

I'd be willing to bet pretty good money Rob already knows how Book 2 is going to end, and has a pretty good idea of how Book 3 is going to go. He's probably got a master outline somewhere that goes all the way through the story he intends to tell. Does that mean that it's set in stone? No. But it's probably pretty solid, and if something deviates from that, it happens for a very good reason. Something like the 4th Arkentool, again I'd be willing to bet that he already has a pretty good idea what it is and what he's going to do with it.

Writing isn't just sitting down and letting the words flow. It takes work. It takes preparation and thought. Only the very very good ones can just throw together a story without any thought or planning. Writing is hard, especially at a professional level. The good ones plan and diagram and outline and do everything they can to make the actual writing easier. Because when you get down to it, putting words on the page is usually the easy, if time consuming, part. It's everything else that is hard.

Does Rob need to know where Book 3 is going? No. Will it be a hell of a lot harder to get there if he doesn't? Abso-booping-lutely. Is Rob smart enough to plan things out before he sits down to put words on the page? Titans, I hope so. If he's not, I'd lose a lot of respect for him.

[Kreistor]

Does Rob need to know what Book 3 is about?

Does Rob need to know where Book 3 is going? No. Will it be a hell of a lot harder to get there if he doesn't? Abso-booping-lutely. Is Rob smart enough to plan things out before he sits down to put words on the page? Titans, I hope so. If he's not, I'd lose a lot of respect for him.

I note you agreed with me in the end. Good. You noticed the technicality of the word "need." So many fail that test.

Rob is actually in a much more unique situation than someone like Eddings. Edding's plot was simple, and the final conflict revealed fairly early in the story. Once he committed to that, he had restrictions on his later books.

Rob has not revealed his final conflict. We don't know what Parson will finally learn. Maybe he'll bring PEace to Erfworld. Maybe he'll break it and remake it using the Tools. We don't know.

But since his plots are about war and conflict, he has much broader possible choices for what happens in Book 3. Maybe he intended it to be the Battle for the Arkendish. If he messes up a detail that prevents that, he has a totally blank slate of a world to work with, and can create a whole new Book to work on while he figures out how to resolve the problem with that Battle.

Go back to the end of Book 1. Is anything there committing Rob to the Battle for Spacerock? No. He has a huge blank slate in front of him, because only a few locations are identified (Transylvito, FAQ), and he could head for anywhere. If he hit a problem with Spacerock, he could write the Battle for Unaroyal or another RCC location instead, by making them more difficult. No one would have complained about a 20 page comic about Unaroyal, would they? And that gives an opportunity to remove the theoretical roadblocks to Spacerock by resolving some character issues.

[Housellama]

Does Rob need to know what Book 3 is about?

Does Rob need to know where Book 3 is going? No. Will it be a hell of a lot harder to get there if he doesn't? Abso-booping-lutely. Is Rob smart enough to plan things out before he sits down to put words on the page? Titans, I hope so. If he's not, I'd lose a lot of respect for him.

I note you agreed with me in the end. Good. You noticed the technicality of the word "need." So many fail that test.

Rob is actually in a much more unique situation than someone like Eddings. Edding's plot was simple, and the final conflict revealed fairly early in the story. Once he committed to that, he had restrictions on his later books.

Rob has not revealed his final conflict. We don't know what Parson will finally learn. Maybe he'll bring PEace to Erfworld. Maybe he'll break it and remake it using the Tools. We don't know.

But since his plots are about war and conflict, he has much broader possible choices for what happens in Book 3. Maybe he intended it to be the Battle for the Arkendish. If he messes up a detail that prevents that, he has a totally blank slate of a world to work with, and can create a whole new Book to work on while he figures out how to resolve the problem with that Battle.

Go back to the end of Book 1. Is anything there committing Rob to the Battle for Spacerock? No. He has a huge blank slate in front of him, because only a few locations are identified (Transylvito, FAQ), and he could head for anywhere. If he hit a problem with Spacerock, he could write the Battle for Unaroyal or another RCC location instead, by making them more difficult. No one would have complained about a 20 page comic about Unaroyal, would they? And that gives an opportunity to remove the theoretical roadblocks to Spacerock by resolving some character issues.

Missing the point, party of 1.

The problem with a blank slate is that you can head anywhere. That's why writers plan. That's the point I was making. If he plans properly, he wouldn't have to worry about running into a problem with Spacerock. Because he already knows where he's going. Authors don't write stories then figure out where they are going. They figure out where they are going, then they write the story.

The Battle of Spacerock didn't exist in Book 1. So why would there be a problem with it? The only way you can write yourself into a corner is if you don't know where you're going to begin with. If you think things out before you put words on the page, then the problems you are proposing don't come up. Professional writers (like Rob) don't just start making things up in a story. They have a very clear idea where they are going before they try to get there. Yes, I've seen my friend have problems where characters didn't develop the way she wanted to. But it never happened in a way where she had to go back and completely rewrite an outline halfway through. She might have to alter some minor events to flow better, but the overall story remained the same. And when I say minor events, I mean the equivalent of Rob changing one page. Maybe two. Not "The Battle for Spacerock" becoming "The Battle for Unaroyal".

Professional painters don't paint half a mural then whitewash the whole thing and start over. Professional electricians don't start wiring things and then decide that they wanted to put that light on a different circuit. Professional carpenters don't build half a house before realizing that the bathroom needed to go on the other side of the building. No, they draw blueprints, then look them over, then edit them and look them over again and make sure everything's the way they want it before they start putting hammer anywhere close to nail. Measure twice, cut once. Why do you think that a professional author would be any different? The clue is in the name.

Rob knows that he's doing serial writing. That what he's writing now will be public long before what he writes later will be. He knows that he's going to have to live with what he puts out there, because he knows that Retconjuration is something to be avoided if at all possible. Therefore, Rob, being a smart professional writer, makes damn sure he knows what's going down on the page and where the next pages are going before he puts anything out for public consumption. Why? Because that's what professionals do. They know that they rely on what they produce to make money. Therefore, what they produce had better booping well be worth money. Hence, thinking and planning rather than just winging it and praying they don't mess up.

[Kreistor]

That's why writers plan. That's the point I was making. If he plans properly, he wouldn't have to worry about running into a problem with Spacerock.

And you're missing my point. Excessive planning prevents writing. Rob doesn't need to plan exactly what he needs for Book 3 when he starts Book 1. And trying to do that puts so much front end work, you are swamped with irrelevant details. And Rob wasn't even certain that he would go beyond Book 1 in the first place. Book 1 always had one resolution that ended the series. (Specifically, the portal would send him back to Earth instead of the MK. That's when he made the decision.)

Nothing Rob did in Book 1 restricted Book 2. That's why I say to go back and look. He gave himself one detail, the effect of the Arkenpliers, and everything he did in Book 1 could be undone. Kill someone off that you find you need in Book 2? Just make sure there's a body. Don't want them? The volcano destroyed that body. Two generalities that permit all details necessary for Book 2 to be put off indefinitely... and start writing Book 1 weeks earlier. Start making MONEY earlier.

Plan what you need when you need it, and let the minor details go until later. You start earlier, finish earlier, and any screw ups can be recovered while you're turning money into food. This is especially true in a Webcomic that can start generating money the moment you start publishing pages, instead of a novel that won't generate income until a hundred thousand words are settled.

[0beron]

I think this whole argument has really gotten off the point...we started off with the question "Does Rob have some idea what the 4th Tool is/does right now?"
The answer can still be yes without Rob having to make huge extensive plans that Kriestor is bemoaning. All it takes is Rob saying "The 4th Tool _____, and it may come into the plot when _____." Any author, especially one who uses plot twists and lateral thinking as cunningly as Rob does is going to have major plot elements laid out in general terms, and leave the "in between" more up in the air. There IS a middle ground here between the "writers plan" and "no they don't" camps.

[Balerion]

I think this whole argument has really gotten off the point...we started off with the question "Does Rob have some idea what the 4th Tool is/does right now?"
The answer can still be yes without Rob having to make huge extensive plans that Kriestor is bemoaning. All it takes is Rob saying "The 4th Tool _____, and it may come into the plot when _____." Any author, especially one who uses plot twists and lateral thinking as cunningly as Rob does is going to have major plot elements laid out in general terms, and leave the "in between" more up in the air. There IS a middle ground here between the "writers plan" and "no they don't" camps.

I said it above, and it still is ringing true; some of us think the Arkentools are a central plot point, others something to give the world texture. Based on which camp you fall into, they can either need to be defined for good writing or not. And since neither camp can prove itself right, we pretty much just have to leave it there. But I somehow doubt that will happen

[mortissimus]

I think it is safe to say that different authors has different methods. Going by anecdotes the style of succesfull commercial writers span the width from drug-induced non-stop typing to, well, the kind of writer who needs to have all the pieces in place before writing (to paraphrase Parson). And everything in between. So unless we know anything about Rob's writing style I think it is futile to try and deduce anything useful from general knowledge of writing.

[Mrtyuh]

...but that's exactly as valid an argument as saying that maybe the Arkenpliers will conjure up a particularly delicious banana-cream pie if one weilds it while singing O Fortuna[/i[, based solely on the idea that we haven't seen proof it can't do that.

O Fortuna
velut luna
statu variabilis,
semper crescis
aut decrescis;
vita detestabilis
nunc obdurat
et tunc curat
ludo mentis aciem,
egestatem,
potestatem
dissolvit ut glaciem.

Sors immanis
et inanis,
rota tu volubilis,
status malus,
vana salus
semper dissolubilis,
obumbrata
et velata
michi quoque niteris;
nunc per ludum
dorsum nudum
fero tui sceleris.

Sors salutis
et virtutis
michi nunc contraria,
est affectus
et defectus
semper in angaria.
Hac in hora
sine mora
corde pulsum tangite;
quod per sortem
sternit fortem,
mecum omnes plangite!

Nope! It didn't work...and I was really in the mood for a banana cream pie. Sorry, but I love Carmina Burana. Since I'm feeling slap happy and probably should be in bed, Selexor, your avatar always reminds me of this.

Sorry, I can dismiss that with a simple quote from the people setting the standard. Ansom is a warlord like Stanley and not an expert in Magic.

I am not disagreeing with you here, more playing devil's advocate. Ansom came from Jetstone, a side that was actively trying to attune to their artifact. Every Prince and Princess of Jetstone held the Arkenpliers at least once in hopes of attunement. Given that, it is likely Ansom payed more attention to anything he learned that might potentially help unlock them. Stanley, on the other hand, liked the Arkenhammer because it tamed dwagons, shot lightning and proved, in his eyes, that he was the Titan's favorite son. He likely would have tuned out any boring stuff Wanda was saying about his artifact. Why would Stanley care how it worked? It was cool and proved he was awesome.

Sizemore set the theme for the new city, but he doesn't set the decorations. The city automatically created the chamber of the Titans, making it inherent in the design. There is no drift of religion, because people are popped knowing it. They don't need religious books, because they are created with the religion in their minds. Sorry, but Erf is fundamentally different, and can resist the changes you describe with every Pop.

Summer Update - Episode 026

"And although I was primarily helping Dirtamancer Rockwell focus on structure and schema, I admit to taking up a good portion of the design," said Maggie, "including the livery."

Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) - Episode 024

In Wanda's suite, a silver chocolate service sat upon a side table. When she'd boosted the tower, a few such nice little changes in design, decor, and accouterments had crept in from her mind's eye.

Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) - Episode 025

Some part of Wanda's mind must have been giving a great deal of thought to Father when she boosted the tower, for this was now the nicest and coziest room in the city.

Just to say something slightly relevant, Maggie did seem to set the decoration, since she includes livery under design. We also see that many elements of a city can come from a units subconscious without them intending them. So whether such features are there because they are inherent or because someone puts them there, perhaps subconsciously is open to debate. They could also be something like the ampitheater, there just to be "part of the city."

I'll go away now.

[Kreistor]

Some part of Wanda's mind must have been giving a great deal of thought to Father when she boosted the tower, for this was now the nicest and coziest room in the city.

Just to say something slightly relevant, Maggie did seem to set the decoration, since she includes livery under design. We also see that many elements of a city can come from a units subconscious without them intending them. So whether such features are there because they are inherent or because someone puts them there, perhaps subconsciously is open to debate. They could also be something like the ampitheater, there just to be "part of the city."

I'll go away now.[/quote]

You misunderstand the scope of that discussion. That discussion was about whether a Library existed, or was the product of Sizemore's religious fervor. He could select the shape and theme of a room, but not choose the room not to exist. He could choose the image on a tapestry, but not that there would be a tapestry. And, specifically, that the CHamber of Titans existed was not his choice, but he may have been able to influence which direction the image was captured from, or what art style was used for the portraits. This was all to counter that there may have been drift in scripture, necause in Erfworld, the scripture may pop automatically in the Library, rather than be hand-copied by men, which would prevent the possibility of religious drift.

[drachefly]

I am NOT saying what you are putting in my mouth. I NEVER said that.

Every time you define something, you can't change it and you're stuck. The corrollary is that the less you define, the less you have to consider while writing.

So, no, you don't choose something that you don't have to until you have to. That leaves you with options, and if you mess something up, no one knows because you fixed it before they realized it.

I think that Rob, as a writer, has his details laid out the way he wants. The guy has a plan.

Writing isn't that simple. ...

Gee, what could have possibly given us that idea? You've only advocated against planning. You gave examples of running D&D campaigns as if they were remotely relevant.

[Kreistor]

"define something" is not selecting the plot. The example is defining Regeneration or Fabrication for twolls.

"has his details laid out the way he wants" is again about details, not plot.

Try again.

[Balerion]

Some evidence he has his details in order then:

Back with Artemis, we had what appeared to be a contrived battle situation, where the dragons were getting creamed but any time Artemis tried to take out the warlord, would have a random act of wtf cause a miss. However, looking at this in retrospect, we can see clear evidence of Luckamancy in play, where crits are gained for a lot of the knights because Artemis is being cursed (move the bad numbers all to her when she was attacking a critical target).

We don't find out how Luckamancy actually works for something like six months. But that scene fit with what we knew pretty much perfectly. So I will say that as my evidence that the details are there even before they are needed.

[Kreistor]

Orrrr... her name is Arte-MISS. Her bad luck could be completely natural, without personal balance. Who knows, there may be an Arte-HIT out there with the good luck.

Which explains nailing Ansom in the eye, while not seeing anyone in particular get a boon for that screw-up.

And I want you to think about Sizemore's comments about his understanding of Dirtamancy. He is not yet Master-class, and explains that he needs some insight before advancing into that ranking. Clay is not a Master-class Luckamancer, and so does not have complete understand of Luckamancy, so take his words with some thought. How's your knowledge of statistics?

Statistics tells us that there is a finite probability of aberrant streaks of bad and good luck. It also tells us that over the long haul, the chance of luck failing to balance decreases. It doesn't take Luckamancy to balance out random chance... chance does that on its own.

There is another effect you have to be aware of, and it's not a comic one. You identify the Knight's good luck as balanced by Artemis' bad. Is it? How do you know? Who told you? Artemis describes it as her Knights being powerful, not getting Crits. She doesn't call it luck. You do. Is that merely you assigning an explanation convenient to your personal view of what's going on? You want to prove Luckamancy balances everything, so you seek out something to balance the bad luck and find what you're looking for.

You can see the same in Nostradamus' prophecies. They are so vague and broadly applicable that it is impossible for none of them to come 100% true. You see what you want to see, without there being any intent from the author to create what you're looking for.

Maybe Rob wrote what you think. But maybe you're interpreting it the way you want to see it, too.

[drachefly]

She had never seen them fight quite like this. Titans, had any of them missed?

Does that sound like her underestimating them, or luckamancy? She knows these knights very well.

Too furious to be amazed at the sheer Luckamancy of it

Oh wait. She thinks Luckamancy is in action here.

Yes, Fate is also involved, but the particular manner of this fate being fulfilled looks enough like what we later see described as luckamancy that we now can see that was the mechanism Fate.

Statistics tells us that there is a finite probability of aberrant streaks of bad and good luck. It also tells us that over the long haul, the chance of luck failing to balance decreases. It doesn't take Luckamancy to balance out random chance... chance does that on its own.

The expected deviation from the mean goes at the square root of the number of independent variables. It increases, not decreases. What decreases is the ratio of the (total possible value if everything lined up) / (the expected actual value).

[Rizban]

Oh, come on, guys. The fourth known tool is the Arkenstone held by the dwarfs of The Lonely Mountain in Middle Erf.

[mortissimus]

That was a really good find. Wonder who will attune to the Arkenstone?

[Balerion]

Sure Kriestor. Rob decided to write a combat sequence in a text update (which is meant to show us details of the world we would miss otherwise) that is such an aberration on the bell curve that we have the characters involved all sure there was an outside force in play, but it turns out everyone was just rolling weirdly. And if that is what you want to see, fine. Not going to waste more of my time on a topic that you clearly have made your mind up over already.

[Kreistor]

Sure Kriestor. Rob decided to write a combat sequence in a text update (which is meant to show us details of the world we would miss otherwise) that is such an aberration on the bell curve that we have the characters involved all sure there was an outside force in play, but it turns out everyone was just rolling weirdly. And if that is what you want to see, fine. Not going to waste more of my time on a topic that you clearly have made your mind up over already.

I think the confusion here is that there was no Luckamancers here. Clay never claimed that everything balances in all cases. What he said was that Luckamancy, when used by Luckamancers, had to balance.

And my point on statistics is that you WILL find a balance if you look for it, given a large enough sample space. that you can find one is not evidence of a natural Luckamancy effect. IN fact, I beleive he said specifically that you're wrong:

Something about it struck Wanda as terribly wrong. “The Titans...play dice? And we must do what the dice say? We flourish or perish at random?”

Clay was shaking his head. “No, no...I think it’s the opposite.” He smiled, as someone who was speaking on a topic of great familiarity. “The dice describe the world. They don’t determine it. A Mathamancer can tell you how many dice will be rolled, how many points’ll be lost when you’re wounded. He’ll tell you what’ll probably happen, and possibly happen, and what can’t happen. But your choices still make it happen.”

Here Clay is saying that the Dice do not force people to success or failure. If the dice all balanced the way you describe, then the Dice would describe the world. If the dice must balance, then you must act to ensure the balance can be maintained. Chance is simply not like that.

"Honestly?" said Clay, "that's the nice way to say it. Whatt'm saying is that maybe that die would have come up 4s three times anyway. So maybe my spell did nothing at all, at least so far. That's why I say it'll roll high 'for a little while.' I don't know. But here's what I do know. And maybe it's kind of a secret of my discipline but I think it's important, and I wanna tell you."

Aberrant results are not an indication of anything, especially when compared to other aberrant results. Clay denies it. It's random, unless affected by a Luckamancer.

But my point on Artemis stands. She is shown consistently throughout her career to have bad luck in critical situations. There is no balance for that shown at any other time. That you want to attribute the Knights success to her failure is not consistent with her entire career of failure. Why isn't it countered by the bad luck Antium suffered being hit by his own Side's arrow? That's great luck for GK that balances poor luck for Artemis.

Clay tells us that Luckamancy steals numbers from somewhere, and he is clear that it doesn't always steal numbers from the same Side that the Luckamancer boosted. It can steal from the enemy, too, giving them bad luck and his own Side good.

But he is talking about Luckamancy as he cast it. At no time does he say that the world balances all the numbers at all times. That one person's good luck causes another's bad. Luckamancy spells balance, in some way, but he does not extend that to a Natural effect, and I believe that it would grossly interefere with Mathamancy if it did, since Mathamancers would need to deal with good luck in one case causing bad luck in another, unassociated calculation. A Mathamancer, if asked the odds of those knights being successful, would have to associate previous results with their efforts and diminish their chances if Unluck had previously been evident.

My point is that Luck happens, because Chance happens, and in seeking a balance I guarantee you will find it: but it's not causal. Clay was talking about Luckamancy itself, as used by Luckamancers, and his statements about the Dice state clearly that Mathamancy relies on those nunmbers being unpredictable. He never told us that the numbers of the world all balanced out, so looking for a balance to Artemis' specific unluck in one instance after a long life of bad luck is not supported by his discussion.