What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Speculation, discoveries, complaints, accusations, praise, and all other Erfworld discussion.

Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby HailGreen28 » Fri Oct 23, 2009 5:43 pm

DevilDan wrote:
Lord Kasavin wrote:What I'm getting at is highly unlikely is inevitable, because there are so many highly unlikely occurrences. So, Parson can't dismiss the possibility that GK is just being unlucky.


He can't dismiss the possibility. He just can't trust it.
The probability of Charlie being involved, does remind me of a saying:

Once: Coincidence.
Twice: Bad luck.
Third time: Enemy action.

I'd put something repeatedly as unlikely as 2% firmly in "enemy action" territory.
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Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby serinis » Fri Oct 30, 2009 7:03 am

I think the bracer works without using bayes theorem unless you tell it so for the question about finding the gobwins that 2%
represents either a critical fumble or someone is fooling round with the goblins when parson told it to assume someone was fooling with the gobwins it used bayes to work out the percentage of the 2% that was not a critical fumble
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Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby Mathamancer » Fri Oct 30, 2009 9:46 am

In light of the final summer update, it seems that Charlie indeed has significant influence over natural allies. He may have bought them out from underneath Gobwin Knob, for some sinister-as-yet-unknown reason.
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