What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

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Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby moose o death » Sat Oct 17, 2009 12:33 am

umm 100%,

he says "hey archon com ere a minute"
archon floats over
i order you too...

equation solved.

admittedly this is a better use of parsons free time than making pointless predictions of the future.
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Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby noxharrington » Sat Oct 17, 2009 3:40 am

This was the first thread I read in this forum and it made me want to register. Hello there.

I feel I need to say that Moose, you're ignoring the evidence presented by the story that this thing is seriously powerful. Like, so powerful I think it has to be taken out of action very shortly in the narrative or we will always, no matter what, be asking "why didn't Parson ask" whatever. It is clearly implied that the bracer will produce the answer to ANY statistical question. Parson didn't know WHETHER the bracer could produce the question posed by CharlesComm, so he couldn't possibly have produced the necessary figures to represent those variables.

I think the person who indicated that (s)he would immediately begin questioning the degree of control over my own existence held by The Tool is on to the right track. But seriously, consultation with the bracer would become central. Always knowing the general answer to any predictive Yes/No question? Come on. SO useful. "What are the odds that I will croak within 30 turns?" "20 turns" "10 turns" "How likely is it that I will be croaked by X? Y? Z?" You can very quickly end up with an extremely comprehensive picture of the general shape of your future chances. But, I also agree that it would be very wise to evaluate the bracer's capabilities first, to assure that you don't risk breaking it through overuse. If its capacity is truly infinite - and we have no reason to believe it is not - then why on Erf has Parson not already sequestered himself in a room and charted out an enormous number of possible outcomes? "What are the odds the enemy has or will have a secret weapon?" "what are the odds that secret weapon is or will be x? y? z?" Narrow it down, learn how to counter it... Folks, this is a ludicrously powerful device. Here's hoping it will be treated with respect.
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Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby moose o death » Sat Oct 17, 2009 7:25 am

you've ignored your own conclusion.

if it was THAT powerful, parson would be, forcibly crammed into a small room to calculate countless odds and outcomes.

either sizemore and charlie are the only erfworlders who even mildly comprehend it's power (possible) or parson, wanda stanley and ansom have all decided it's numbers are too impractical most of the time. relegating it to calculating odds of the strike force winning the next turns proposed combat.

from a plot point of view it's a device to explain randomly arrived at odds without the audience questioning the logic. because the bracer said so is so much easier to explain than the exact calculation that arrives at 4.14%

the updates are foreshadowing, all of them. they are setting up the world ready for book two and introducing new players and world mechanics in such a way that we can better understand the underlying abilities. the comic format doesn't lend itself to that. we have had a tendency to overrun with these concepts though and i see the bracer as being prime among the examples of things we've blown out of context.

now i've said everything i have to say on the bracer. any future points i would have to make are simply rehashing what i've already said.
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Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby raphfrk » Sat Oct 17, 2009 11:42 am

moose o death wrote:umm 100%,

he says "hey archon com ere a minute"
archon floats over
i order you too...

equation solved.

admittedly this is a better use of parsons free time than making pointless predictions of the future.


Actually, the odds would also have to include the chances of Parson doing that, but that is just nit picking :).
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Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby HailGreen28 » Sat Oct 17, 2009 12:46 pm

raphfrk wrote:
moose o death wrote:umm 100%,

he says "hey archon com ere a minute"
archon floats over
i order you too...

equation solved.

admittedly this is a better use of parsons free time than making pointless predictions of the future.


Actually, the odds would also have to include the chances of Parson doing that, but that is just nit picking :).
Not to mention, what Parson is interested in is an Archon that LIKES him enough to do it of her own free will.

Even if they don't show it in the comic, if Parson really wants to know something that normal intel can't provide, all he has to do is use the Bracer. And seeing he can converse with Maggie during his garrison duties, he can probably multitask with the Bracer as well.

Like Parson said. Being able to predict the future? Priceless.
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Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby noxharrington » Sat Oct 17, 2009 1:16 pm

moose o death wrote:you've ignored your own conclusion.

if it was THAT powerful, parson would be, forcibly crammed into a small room to calculate countless odds and outcomes.


By whom? The Tool would be the last person to see the potential of this object. By his own duty, maybe... but he just figured out its full potential, and frankly I think Robb is also only now working it out. As I said, either limits on its power need to be established or it needs to be acknowledged as invaluable.

moose o death wrote:either sizemore and charlie are the only erfworlders who even mildly comprehend it's power (possible) or parson, wanda stanley and ansom have all decided it's numbers are too impractical most of the time. relegating it to calculating odds of the strike force winning the next turns proposed combat.


Yeah, I can't see why you would reach this conclusion. We haven't seen any evidence for this, and the available evidence indicates that it returns a number that is quite useful whenever asked a good question. In this numbers-based universe of Erfworld I don't see why there would be some chaos-theory impossibility of knowing a lot about possible future outcomes. You keep bringing up the 4%, and yes, that does indicate that probably most things wouldn't register at 100% or 0% (though maybe some things would - "Assuming I am neither disbanded nor croaked, what are the odds my food will pop tomorrow morning?") but it also, to me, shows that these predictions about the future could yield very useful results. And that's all they need to be - useful, not certain.

moose o death wrote:from a plot point of view it's a device to explain randomly arrived at odds without the audience questioning the logic. because the bracer said so is so much easier to explain than the exact calculation that arrives at 4.14%


So you're saying that you think Parson DID know all the necessary variables to predict the future, but we just didn't see him figure them out because the audience wouldn't get it? I think that is implausible. If Parson were capable of such a feat he would be a seer in his own right, and it would be very interesting to me as a reader if he could do that. Can we at least agree that the evidence indicates that the bracer, not Parson, produces both the variables and the solution? That is is not, in effect, a calculator that responds to verbal queries relating to known values, but rather a magical object that is omniscient regarding chance?

moose o death wrote:we have had a tendency to overrun with these concepts though and i see the bracer as being prime among the examples of things we've blown out of context.


Given what we've seen and read thusfar I think we have every reason to give the bracer as much credit as I have. The updates have provided the context. I just hope, now that this huge gun has been viewed by the audience, it will receive the firing it deserves before act III.
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Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby ftl » Sat Oct 17, 2009 3:54 pm

I had a nice long post typed up on what I think the bracer would do and probability, but it got complicated and instead I'll illustrate with an analogy.

Consider the following question:

"What's the probability that I'll flip "heads" on this coin that I'm holding?"

You might think the answer is obviously 50%. But that's not at all obvious.

First, there's the question of whether I'll flip the coin at all. Maybe I won't. To answer that, you first have to predict the probability that I'll flip this coin at all.

OK, so lets refine the question. "If I flipped this coin right now, what's the probability that it'll land heads?"

You might answer 50-50 to that - or whatever the probabilities are, coins aren't *actually* symmetric, they're pretty close but not exact.

What about "If I flipped the coin I'm holding right now, a 2005 "Kansas" US Quarter, what's the probability that it'll land heads?"

That'll be slightly different than the previous answer. Now you have exact information on what coin it is.

What about "If I flipped the coin I'm holding right now, a 2005 "Kansas" US Quarter (and the "Heads" side is currently facing up, ready to flip), what's the probability that it'll land heads?" That's yet different. Because of the dynamics of coin flips, it's more likely by about a percent for a coin to land on the same side it started out on.

What about "If I flipped this coin I'm holding right now, a 2005 "Kansas" US Quarter (and the "Heads" side is currently facing up, ready to flip by a Persi Diaconis tails-calibrated coin-flipper ( http://news-service.stanford.edu/news/2 ... is-69.html ) ), what's the probability that it'll land heads?" That is VERY different.

What about "given the quantum-mechanical wavefunction for all of the atoms in the room I am in, what's the probability that this coin will land heads?" That'll give pretty much an exact answer.

And yet, if you don't think of all of those individual factors, you'll get an answer from the bracer to the question "Hey' what's the probability that guy flips heads?" and it'll be a completely useless answer because you won't know which of those questions it is answering.

(For the record, I did flip the coin, it started out heads, and despite not owning a Persi-Diaconis machine I intentionally flipped it in such a way that it would land tails. If you could accurately predict my thought process, the actual flipping of the coin would have had essentially no randomness in it.)

The relevance to the bracer is as follows. The information you get from it is EXTREMELY dependent on
1) Exactly what it is asked.
2) What you already know about the subject at hand.
3) What the bracer knows about the subject at hand.

With enough information available to it, you can get a near-certain answer to any question. With little enough information, you can get a useless answer to any question.

Asking vague questions about subjects about which you have no knowledge is equivalent to asking "what's the probability that it'll land heads" with no information. Sure, you'll get 50-50 - but there's a million different ways that reality could be biased towards either heads or tails, and they'll all average out and you won't get any information about them. You could ask "what's the probability that a dwagon will pop in this hex" and you'll probably get a generic probability that doesn't give you any information besides "dragons pop at a rate of 1 dwagon per 200 hexes".

The bracer is most useful when you can narrow down exactly what you're asking about. "What's the probability that a stack of 7 dwagons can defeat that stack of 4 warlords and 30 bats?" - now THAT you can use to plan a battle.

The relevant question is "what information does the bracer have access to?" In real-life terms, if I ask it about some guy flipping a coin, does it have access to the quantum mechanics of all the atoms, allowing it to calculate what'll happen to within the heisenberg uncertainty principle? Or will it average over all coin flips everywhere and give 50-50?

I think it is evident that the bracer has access to all the "built-in" erfworld mechanics. Stats, etcetera. If Parson asks it "what's the probability that a dwagon is croaked by 5 bats", he doesn't need to look up the strength and levels of dwagons and bats personally.
But beyond that, what information does it have the ability to use? I suspect it has to have access to all of the information Parson has, and his estimates about the world. It knows as much as he does, otherwise he would have to explicitly describe all sorts of the details of the current situation to it, and he'd have to worry about accidentally leaving out information that he knows but hasn't told the bracer explicitly.
Beyond that - MAYBE it has access to the information that other commanders or units on Parson's side do? MAYBE it has access to information from others that it's making predictions for. (Like, it was allowed to access Charlie's plans for what to do with the information in deciding whether the deal was worth it for him.) I would suspect not.

But it doesn't have to be powerful as a predictamancy artifact to be powerful as a mathamancy artifact. Being able to put exact numbers on situations you know is HUGELY useful to a good Warlord.

So you're saying that you think Parson DID know all the necessary variables to predict the future, but we just didn't see him figure them out because the audience wouldn't get it? I think that is implausible. If Parson were capable of such a feat he would be a seer in his own right,


So to that I would answer yes. Parson's a great warlord - the whole POINT of being a good warlord is to "predict" what the enemy is going to do and what your options are to counter it, and to be good at guessing the answers to those sorts of questions! I find it quite reasonable that if Parson had to come up with a guess as to whether the deal is worth it for Charlie, he'd run through a few possible uses of the information and a few possible ways it could leak out, and come up with "well, probably not." He wouldn't be sure, because there's a lot of possible scenarios in either direction, and even if he can visualize them each individually, putting numbers on something you know is hard anyway, and combining them is harder still. But the bracer lets him put exact numbers on the situations he knows about - that's immensely powerful, but not in the way you're imagining.
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Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby noxharrington » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:29 pm

"CharlsNChrg: Tell me the odds that learning what happened to my Archons right now will be worth giving up those calculations in the future.
LordHamster: ...
LordHamster: I don't know if this thing can even DO a calculation like that. Predicting the future?
CharlsNChrg: Try it.
LordHamster: Fine.
LordHamster: I'll be damned.
LordHamster: It says there's all of a 4% chance it's worth taking my deal, even after spending this calculation.
LordHamster: 4.14 percent.
CharlsNChrg: Hm.
CharlsNChrg: That either means that I could likely find out the information through other means, or the calculations will be highly valuable.
LordHamster: I guess. Or both."

I wonder whether we might parse out together what variables to which the bracer would need access in order to yield a correct answer to this question. I will start us off.
The odds that future calculations will be important
The odds that Charlie will get the chance to use those calculations in the future
The odds that knowledge of the Archon's fate would prove valuable

But more important than the specifics of how much access to Erfcode the bracer has (well, maybe not more. Also important) is that Charlie asked "hm, this variable or that variable might influence that answer" and Parson said "I guess. Or both." I mean... that says very strongly to me that not only does he not have an estimate of the value of those variables (and how could he? it's the future) he also might not have even thought of those variables when asking the question. He probably did - or at least, the knowledge that those variables are important probably lies somewhere in his brain - but he definitely does not know how valuable the future calculations might be to Charlie.

If the bracer can access "only what Parson/The Tool's side knows" then that supposes a definition of the word "knows" that I don't recognize.

It might be true that the bracer can only take into account variables that Parson knows ARE variables relating to the question - but, again, that "I guess" makes me wonder. I think instead that if he asked the bracer a general question he would get a specific answer, and then try to figure out what variables come into play to give that answer - just like Charlescomm did.
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Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby moose o death » Sat Oct 17, 2009 8:58 pm

i mentioned this in the update topic.

value of predictions
value of information
the increasing chance of the information becoming common knowledge.

every turn extra it takes for the knowledge to leak the value of the remaining calculations value increases over the value of the information.

the real question becomes what does the 4% actually MEAN. is it a 4% chance charlies side gets croaked before he can use the calulations. is it a 4% chance the knowledge is exposed in a few more turns. are the calculations so damn valuable that no piece of intel is worth them.

we know it was the exposition a few panels later that caused it to be 4%. but the nice "short" story FTL wrote summs up exactly my thoughts on the matter. feed generic information and get generic answers. feed long complicated maths in get very precise answers.

so parson has better things to do. literally.
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Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby HailGreen28 » Sun Oct 18, 2009 1:15 am

moose o death wrote:i mentioned this in the update topic.

value of predictions
value of information
the increasing chance of the information becoming common knowledge.

every turn extra it takes for the knowledge to leak the value of the remaining calculations value increases over the value of the information.

the real question becomes what does the 4% actually MEAN. is it a 4% chance charlies side gets croaked before he can use the calulations. is it a 4% chance the knowledge is exposed in a few more turns. are the calculations so damn valuable that no piece of intel is worth them.

we know it was the exposition a few panels later that caused it to be 4%. but the nice "short" story FTL wrote summs up exactly my thoughts on the matter. feed generic information and get generic answers. feed long complicated maths in get very precise answers.

so parson has better things to do. literally.
Wrong, wrong wrong.

Charlie found out exactly what he needed to know: Was it worth giving up his remaining calcs to get the info Parson offered. 4% is a very definite answer to what can be looked at as a question with very complex factors. (He also found out that his remaining calcs can be even more useful than just tactical predictions, but that's outweighed by Parson having as many calcs as he wants.)

If you want to try to appear smart, you can overthink your questions and mess up. But so far Parson hasn't. I wonder if that one time he told Wanda that her (Ansoms?) plan was a bad idea: 1. It was the parley? 2. Parson ran a calc on it's success? (Bea surrendering or allying with GW)

The Bracer would be incredibly useful, to anyone with intelligence and imagination.
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Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby moose o death » Sun Oct 18, 2009 2:12 am

well i can't possibly argue against you. you said wrong so many times i have to be wrong.

you then proceed to insult my intelligence twice and my imagination once.

i am deeply humbled by your superior debating skills. i'm sorry to have disturbed you so.
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Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby Roketter » Sun Oct 18, 2009 2:55 am

I think It was a 4% because:

A) Charlie had already noticed his croaked units fighting for gobwin knob. The rest could be infered easily with some imagination. If every unit croaked by Wanda's stack comes back fighting for Gobwin knob, then they have some means of resurecting and brainwashing defeated enemies.
B) Wanda and Ansom weren't being secretive about it.
C) Other sides had seen the Decrpyted units, specially Unaroyal.
D) Everyone now knew Gobwin Knob had the pliers.

The bracer calculated Value of information, wich was low since it was obvious it was bound to get revealed inminently, to the usefulness of tactical calculations. Since Mathamancy is a standar school of magic in Erfworld, those calculations must be a specific Mathamancy spell that costs mana... *coughs* that costs Juice. So the value of the calculations can be deducted by adding up the mana cost, and the spellcasting skill required for a Mathamancer to cast the equivalent.

Still, the bracers ability to simplify all that into a 4% figure makes it an excellent... Tool ? It almost predicts the future :P
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Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby taltamir » Sun Oct 18, 2009 4:02 am

if it can give accurate predictions to answers of info you should not have, such as "what are the odds that there are X arken tools" or "what are the odds that transylvitto has an arken tool", then you can use it to cheat the system... locate and aquire all the tools, then locate the units that will bind them, capture said units, bind tools, and become unstopable.
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Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby noxharrington » Sun Oct 18, 2009 4:42 am

Roketter wrote: It almost predicts the future :P


I don't see any evidence that it does not literally predict the future.
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Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby noxharrington » Sun Oct 18, 2009 4:47 am

moose o death wrote:the real question becomes what does the 4% actually MEAN. is it a 4% chance charlies side gets croaked before he can use the calulations. is it a 4% chance the knowledge is exposed in a few more turns. are the calculations so damn valuable that no piece of intel is worth them.

we know it was the exposition a few panels later that caused it to be 4%. but the nice "short" story FTL wrote summs up exactly my thoughts on the matter. feed generic information and get generic answers. feed long complicated maths in get very precise answers.

so parson has better things to do. literally.


The answer to your question is, it means all those things at once. It MUST have access to ALL those pieces of information in order to arrive at a true conclusion.

Your "conclusion" I don't understand. I see no evidence that the bracer requires "long complicated maths" to reach a precise conclusion.

Parson should immediately determine the limits of the bracer's power. His failure to do so thusfar does not jive with his usual savviness.
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Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby moose o death » Sun Oct 18, 2009 5:29 am

right..so do you actually read threads or do you just respond with extreme prejudice to the first person who offers a divurgent opinion to your own.

4% is a strong result. and charlie made the right choice.

what if the number had been 45%? it's almost 50/50 the calculations and the information are about the same value. then what... predictions can fail. the actions of the indivdual units may not occur the bracer is GUESSING.

look at horse racing, the favourite is worth less to bet on. but that doesn't stop the long shot, potentially worth 100 times for the win, from winning

so does charlie take the 55 or the 45? either could the right choice. personally if i was charlie and got numbers like that i'd be needing a change of underwear because that information is clearly worth ALOT of schmukers to know immediately. it could mean he's about to be assualted.

THAT is why i feel parson is best off just doing his jobs as specified. the bracer is only as useful as the numbers fed into it.

the more sensible course of action is to send sizemore into the MK to buy the services of a mathamancer to train parson in the bracers use, or to simply hire a mathamancer to actually use it.
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Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby noxharrington » Sun Oct 18, 2009 5:37 am

moose o death wrote:right..so do you actually read threads or do you just respond with extreme prejudice to the first person who offers a divurgent opinion to your own.

4% is a strong result. and charlie made the right choice.

what if the number had been 45%? it's almost 50/50 the calculations and the information are about the same value. then what... predictions can fail. the actions of the indivdual units may not occur the bracer is GUESSING.


Yes - if the answer had been 45%, that WOULD indicate that the bracer cannot yield precise answers to this sort of sweeping, lots-and-lots-of-variables-that-Parson-couldn't-possibly-know type questions. But, hey, look - it DIDN'T answer 45%. It answered 4%. So... I don't really understand the rest of your point. The bracer (as far as we know right now) CAN access information about the future and current events not known by Parson. If it could not, it could not answer the question asked.
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Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby moose o death » Sun Oct 18, 2009 6:15 am

that's my point. your taking an easy equation giving a good result to mean it can answer anything with almost 100% certainty.

but it didn't it found a 4% uncertainty. and as best i can see that equation only needed three variables. two of which are known and one changes over time. the prediction maths worked out the third variable's curve. and gave the result relative to that turn. it still had a 4% uncertainty predicting something parson could honestly have just said.

parson was fully aware charlie would soon know what was happening without spending the calculations. he baitted charlie into spending a calculation. he wasn't aware the bracer could calculate what he ended up being asked, but that was never his intention. those calculations are likley to be very important down the track and it's best not having charlie getting them for free.

this is why i said the only questions i would be asking the bracer would be the ones about which side has the advantage in this proposed combat scenario. then going back to my rounds. and you'll notice parson has confirmed that to be exactly what he does.
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Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby raphfrk » Sun Oct 18, 2009 6:41 am

moose o death wrote:that's my point. your taking an easy equation giving a good result to mean it can answer anything with almost 100% certainty.

but it didn't it found a 4% uncertainty. and as best i can see that equation only needed three variables. two of which are known and one changes over time. the prediction maths worked out the third variable's curve. and gave the result relative to that turn. it still had a 4% uncertainty predicting something parson could honestly have just said.


Well, the question is really means "over all possible futures in what percentage of them would it be better for you to take my deal?".
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Re: What questions would you use the Bracer to predict?

Postby Beholden » Sun Oct 18, 2009 8:02 am

Moose, you might be one of the more self confessed intelligent posters here... but you're being equally insulting.

Can we just put it down to 'we don't know how the hell the bracer works exactly yet, we may never know'. Perhaps Parson is already experimenting with the Bracer in running stats with Jack?
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