So, uhm. Book 3 Kickstarter?

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Re: So, uhm. Book 3 Kickstarter?

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Tue Apr 01, 2014 7:39 pm

Godzfirefly wrote:
Althernai wrote:The biggest difference is that this one is not about fluffy things like pins and plushies, it's about the core comic. People might be willing to give more -- we'll see.


I dunno...I was just thinking the other day that none of the reward levels had anything that interested me, since I don't really want a physical book or an ebook for the comic or some little pin. But, if they'd had a more interesting bonus like the plushies that I could let my kids play with, even if the plushies weren't on their own worth a quarter of what I'd invested in Erfworld it would make me more willing to invest in this Kickstarter.

Well, you could always go buy some stuff in the store. I'd imagine if the kickstarter ends up being very close to the last goal, and Rob sees a bunch of extra store sales during that time, he'd likely add the profits there into the kickstarter total to figure out what he can do. Also, I'm not sure if Rob has already calculated in the preorders that people have placed on book 2 hardcover or not (it was something available to Tools before the kickstarter started).

Right now Kicktraq has the campaign trending to a quarter million which seems really high, though in my experience Kicktraq is remarkably good at making that prediction, though I imagine closer to 150-200k would be more likely. And even that might be somewhat optimistic because even though most kickstarters show a huge influx at the start, and another at the end, and a nil period in the middle, I think this one likely got an even larger early boost than most because of how well advertised within the community it was, and how supportive the community is.

Honestly, I'm not super worried about us not meeting the 200% goal. I think we'll make it, and I'm hopeful we'll go a fair bit past as well.
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Re: So, uhm. Book 3 Kickstarter?

Postby Lilwik » Tue Apr 01, 2014 8:08 pm

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:Right now Kicktraq has the campaign trending to a quarter million which seems really high, though in my experience Kicktraq is remarkably good at making that prediction, though I imagine closer to 150-200k would be more likely.
I don't know about other projects, but right now Kicktraq seems to be making a prediction that could only be born of madness or the thoughtless mind of a computer. It seems to be anticipating that pledges will come in faster tomorrow than they are coming in today, and keep on coming in faster and faster for the entire duration, even though so far every day has consistently had less pledge money than the day before. I will be amazed and overjoyed if reality ends up looking anything like that.

I find the Kickspy trending prediction to be far more believable, and unfortunately that has us hovering right about at the edge of getting comic pages, which gives us a good chance of going either way.

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:Honestly, I'm not super worried about us not meeting the 200% goal. I think we'll make it, and I'm hopeful we'll go a fair bit past as well.
I wish I had your confidence. I have a suspicion that even Kickspy's more conservative prediction may be overly optimistic because of that huge opening day. I'm afraid the huge opening day represents the bulk of the funding available from Erfworld's most loyal fans rather than being an indication of Erfworld's general popularity as the predictions may be assuming. I think there might not be much left for the final push at the end, and we're really going to need a solid final push if we want to win this. $67k is practically guaranteed, but $97k is going to be a close race even if things go well.
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Re: So, uhm. Book 3 Kickstarter?

Postby Althernai » Wed Apr 02, 2014 2:37 am

Lilwik wrote:I don't know about other projects, but right now Kicktraq seems to be making a prediction that could only be born of madness or the thoughtless mind of a computer. It seems to be anticipating that pledges will come in faster tomorrow than they are coming in today, and keep on coming in faster and faster for the entire duration, even though so far every day has consistently had less pledge money than the day before. I will be amazed and overjoyed if reality ends up looking anything like that.

The Kicktraq "trend" is not a prediction. If you click on the "Read More" next to it, they warn you about this:
The trend line is not an estimation or a forecast, it’s just a trend that takes the current value and casts it over the remainder of the project’s funding period. Because of the way projects initially fund, especially popular ones, the initial few days are highly skewed when casting over the remainder of the project.

In other words, it is a completely linear extrapolation. It would work if the Kickstarter got roughly the same amount of money every day (small fluctuations around a mean value are OK), but most Kickstarters aren't like that. Erfworld's funding certainly isn't linear: it tends to get 30-50% of the total in the first couple of days. To be honest, I don't understand why Kicktraq makes this estimate so prominent -- I've never seen a project where it works well. Maybe the majority of projects are for smaller, not so famous things (i.e. $1K rather than $50K) and people just randomly stumble upon them making the contributions roughly linear? They do have a projection which is somewhat more plausible.
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Re: So, uhm. Book 3 Kickstarter?

Postby Gamer » Wed Apr 02, 2014 4:11 am

I wish the "full comic book" had been the goal for the kickstarter, not just a "stretch". I'm definitely willing to contribute to get a new full comic, but not really just to get only text - or even illustrated text. One of the things I like about kickstarter is that I only pay if the project is funded. By making the project I'd like to help fund a "stretch goal", that is no longer the case. Guess I'll wait until near the end of the kickstarter, and I'll contribute if it seems like the full comic is going to be funded. Unfortunately, if many think like me, we'll all be waiting, and it's not gonna be funded.
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Re: So, uhm. Book 3 Kickstarter?

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Wed Apr 02, 2014 6:29 am

Althernai wrote:
Lilwik wrote:I don't know about other projects, but right now Kicktraq seems to be making a prediction that could only be born of madness or the thoughtless mind of a computer. It seems to be anticipating that pledges will come in faster tomorrow than they are coming in today, and keep on coming in faster and faster for the entire duration, even though so far every day has consistently had less pledge money than the day before. I will be amazed and overjoyed if reality ends up looking anything like that.

The Kicktraq "trend" is not a prediction. If you click on the "Read More" next to it, they warn you about this:
The trend line is not an estimation or a forecast, it’s just a trend that takes the current value and casts it over the remainder of the project’s funding period. Because of the way projects initially fund, especially popular ones, the initial few days are highly skewed when casting over the remainder of the project.

In other words, it is a completely linear extrapolation. It would work if the Kickstarter got roughly the same amount of money every day (small fluctuations around a mean value are OK), but most Kickstarters aren't like that. Erfworld's funding certainly isn't linear: it tends to get 30-50% of the total in the first couple of days. To be honest, I don't understand why Kicktraq makes this estimate so prominent -- I've never seen a project where it works well. Maybe the majority of projects are for smaller, not so famous things (i.e. $1K rather than $50K) and people just randomly stumble upon them making the contributions roughly linear? They do have a projection which is somewhat more plausible.

Hmm, weird, I remember reading a while ago about how kicktraq was actually using an algorhythm of some kind to figure it out as opposed to a simple linear calculation. Must have been reading about the projection stuff they're working on and thought it was talking about their trend number instead of making a new number.

I wish the "full comic book" had been the goal for the kickstarter, not just a "stretch". I'm definitely willing to contribute to get a new full comic, but not really just to get only text - or even illustrated text. One of the things I like about kickstarter is that I only pay if the project is funded. By making the project I'd like to help fund a "stretch goal", that is no longer the case. Guess I'll wait until near the end of the kickstarter, and I'll contribute if it seems like the full comic is going to be funded. Unfortunately, if many think like me, we'll all be waiting, and it's not gonna be funded.
Depends on how many people there are like you out there. If it is only a hundred or so, we'll get close enough (or wouldn't have even with your addition) for you to pitch in. If it is a thousand or so, then it could cause a problem. Although, even then, it depends on just how close people like you are waiting. 1k away? 5k? 10k?

The problem might be magnified a bit by the fact that there are also some people who have pledged, but would pledge higher if it would get to the 200% goal, so they may also be holding back. This is part of why I'm not too worried about not hitting the goal. If we're still not there by the end, I suspect there will be alot of people who will dig out some extra money to get there and we'll see a big boost at the end. We'll see in a month or so if all this comes back to bite me and I get proven wrong or not.

P.S. It's interesting to note that after that initial spike and it now leveling out, the kickstarter has still been bringing in a fairly regular 3k a day so far since then.
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Re: So, uhm. Book 3 Kickstarter?

Postby Lamech » Wed Apr 02, 2014 12:33 pm

If the past few days hold constant for the remainder then we'll hit the real goal easy. Time will tell. Time will tell.
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Re: So, uhm. Book 3 Kickstarter?

Postby 0beron » Wed Apr 02, 2014 4:25 pm

Kicktraq isn't as simple as a linear extrapolation, but it's still far from accurate. As time goes by the Projection tab gets enough data for a better picture, but the Trending line is always overly optimistic because it's a bit closer to linear.
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GJC wrote:Two guys with basically the same name in a discussion about a character getting cloned.
There's gotta be a good joke in here somewhere.
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Re: So, uhm. Book 3 Kickstarter?

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Wed Apr 02, 2014 6:43 pm

0beron wrote:Kicktraq isn't as simple as a linear extrapolation, but it's still far from accurate. As time goes by the Projection tab gets enough data for a better picture, but the Trending line is always overly optimistic because it's a bit closer to linear.

Well, not always. Right around the 1/2 to 2/3 point it'll tend to dip a bit under the final amount because it doesn't account for the boost that tends to occur near the end. Far from set in stone of course.
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Re: So, uhm. Book 3 Kickstarter?

Postby Lamech » Fri Apr 04, 2014 12:02 am

And we're slowing down.
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Re: So, uhm. Book 3 Kickstarter?

Postby 0beron » Fri Apr 04, 2014 11:18 am

Aaaactually, growth has been fairly linear (albeit slow) since the initial burst. We're not slowing down, just staying steady so far.
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GJC wrote:Two guys with basically the same name in a discussion about a character getting cloned.
There's gotta be a good joke in here somewhere.
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Re: So, uhm. Book 3 Kickstarter?

Postby Lamech » Fri Apr 04, 2014 2:23 pm

Only a little bit, but its there. I'm probably reading too much into it. Normal variance even for linear growth IRL.

The growth is still quick enough to hit the 97k mark though.
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Re: So, uhm. Book 3 Kickstarter?

Postby GWvsJohn » Sat Apr 05, 2014 8:58 pm

Doesn't $30k seem like an awful lot for 1 8-panel page per week?

David is a fine artist, but he's not Jaime. There's no one out there who can produce a single comic page per week for less than 30 grand?
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Re: So, uhm. Book 3 Kickstarter?

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Sat Apr 05, 2014 9:42 pm

GWvsJohn wrote:Doesn't $30k seem like an awful lot for 1 8-panel page per week?

David is a fine artist, but he's not Jaime. There's no one out there who can produce a single comic page per week for less than 30 grand?

Actually it is about 45k, since 15k from the first stretch goal already goes to him for the 2 pics per page.

It sounds like alot of money, but we don't really know how long the book is going to be. Books 1 and 2 both ran around 120ish pages. That's 375 per page if it turns out to be the same length. And there are roughly 8 panels per page on average, so that's just under $50 per panel, and honestly a panel takes nearly as much work as a full page drawing. I'm no expert in the cost of art or anything, but that feels like a fairly normalish price for a drawing that isn't absurdly complex or anything. It is perhaps a bit on the high side, but I'm guessing it also includes the fact that David has to keep to a schedule and whatnot. And he seems to be doing this as part of a business, and might even have other people working with him, and that means he's going to have more overhead expenses than a freelance artist... which is the extra cost Rob has to pay to ensure consistency.

Also, if the book is any longer than the previous 120ish pages (which I almost feel like it has to be if it is really going to be the conclusion already. Is it? I thought I'd heard that, but I could be wrong.), then the price on individual panels drops quick. 150 pages drops it to under 40 per panel.
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Re: So, uhm. Book 3 Kickstarter?

Postby bladestorm » Sat Apr 05, 2014 9:57 pm

GWvsJohn wrote:Doesn't $30k seem like an awful lot for 1 8-panel page per week?

David is a fine artist, but he's not Jaime. There's no one out there who can produce a single comic page per week for less than 30 grand?

Xin did it for a lot less up-front, and we burnt her out. Plus, I think this is going to be an actual production team, not just one artist.

Then there is all of the math you are leaving out. One 8-panel page per week, for how many weeks? If it stretches to 200 of those pages, that's nearly 4 year's worth of work for only $30K, which is a huge bargain. That also doesn't take into account any time off for vacation, sick time, holidays, conventions pushing this merchandise, personal tragedy, etc. Torches and pitchforks start showing up when the comic gets behind schedule, even if they are veiled by words of 'understanding'. He will probably have to build a buffer up, which then entails redoing some of the pages within that buffer when the forums start asking a lot of questions that should already be clear, but Rob needs one panel changed to clarify something. And any retconjurations before final print. Not to mention the hell that would be raised if he grossly misrepresented something the forumites hold so dear, such as Sizemore's pants. 30 Grand isn't enough for all of that.
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Re: So, uhm. Book 3 Kickstarter?

Postby GWvsJohn » Sat Apr 05, 2014 10:11 pm

A 150 page comic would be 200 per page. That's a lot for a comic book artist.
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Re: So, uhm. Book 3 Kickstarter?

Postby Althernai » Sat Apr 05, 2014 11:42 pm

Well, we've reached $67K (surprisingly quickly, too -- I hope somebody didn't pledge more than they intend to ultimately contribute). Let's see if the new offers of art will be enough to move things along.
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Re: So, uhm. Book 3 Kickstarter?

Postby Lamech » Sun Apr 06, 2014 4:59 pm

200-375$ per page? I suppose it really depends on how much time he spends on them. If he's spending 10 hours on each one, its a good amount. But I'm pretty sure if he has a studio there is overhead and/or corporate fat cats* taking a share.


*And who could possibly object to helping to fund this guy
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Re: So, uhm. Book 3 Kickstarter?

Postby ftl » Tue Apr 08, 2014 12:01 am

I think part of it must be the cost of all the actual rewards - some of them are pretty cool. I'd bet that a the amount that goes through and can be applied to actually creating the comic is noticeably less.
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Re: So, uhm. Book 3 Kickstarter?

Postby Dennis » Tue Apr 08, 2014 1:41 am

ftl wrote:I think part of it must be the cost of all the actual rewards - some of them are pretty cool. I'd bet that a the amount that goes through and can be applied to actually creating the comic is noticeably less.


Yeah I completely agree. It's unrealistic to expect all of the extra 30k will be going toward the art when Rob has to provide hardcover books, figurines, etc to the people that pledged that amount. And then you have to remember that Kickstarter and Amazon also take their percentages.
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Re: So, uhm. Book 3 Kickstarter?

Postby bladestorm » Tue Apr 08, 2014 3:28 pm

The new pledge levels that got unlocked look to have boosted this kickstarter a bit. With the rate this thing is going, we will easily make the final stretch goal.
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