Predictamancy and Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Speculation, discoveries, complaints, accusations, praise, and all other Erfworld discussion.

Re: Predictamancy and Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Postby Godzfirefly » Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:19 pm

Lilwik wrote:I can't read Delphie's mind, but I can read what she said, and reading B0E24 makes me pretty confident about what other things she might say. She wanted people to understand that the lies she told were for the good of Goodminton, and surely that was actually true. The situation doesn't seem nearly as complicated as you make it sound.


So, you know she was telling the truth there, though she was lieing elsewhere because...? Sure, she might say her lies and withholding of information is for the good of the side, but that could just as easily be a rationalization in her head to help her bypass Duty...we've seen units rationalize around their Duty before, after anl. Or, it could be her trying to dig herself out of being caught in a lie by continuing to lie.

You seem to be trying to make Delphi (and each other Predictamancer) sound like a saint who is only acting for the public welfare, but, if she was so able to "see the consequences of her actions" including her lies or her truths, then she'd have known that it was her lies that pushed Goodminton into destruction, since openness with her ruler from the beginning probably wouldn't have made him act in anger when the truce offer from Haffaton came to him. And, she probably would have stayed Chief Caster, too, so she'd have been able to continue acting "for the good of her side." My only conclusion is that Delphi's lies were not because she Predicted good would come of it, but instead because she had no Prediction either way in regards to her own conduct and lieing was her default.
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Re: Predictamancy and Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Postby drachefly » Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:35 pm

Lilwik wrote:
Taikei no Yuurei wrote:I do however think that predictions in Erfworld seem to be self fulfilling to some degree.
If Predictions are self-fulfilling, then why would Marie tell anyone about the fall of Faq or the death of Banhammer? She'd be killing her king, and Duty is supposed to prevent that.


She didn't get the prediction she was looking for. Case closed.
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Re: Predictamancy and Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Postby Lilwik » Wed Mar 19, 2014 7:10 pm

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:We haven't heard the prediction, but when Parson asks Issac "How many predictions am I fulfilling?" after being told he was only allowed to be summoned because he was going to defeat Charlie, Issac replies "Three. Well, four." which to me indicates that he is in fact predicted to defeat Charlie.
Unfortunately Isaac never got a chance to explain what he meant. Parson said "prophecies", not "Predictions", and Isaac might have taken it to mean "How many groups arranged for my summoning expecting me to do something?" Some of those prophecies might have the magic guarantee of Prediction, and some of them might not.

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:But we've learned from Delphie (among others) that Fate is a force that can apply pressures of various kinds.
How exactly did Delphie indicate that? Delphie is the one who said that Fate wouldn't stop Wanda from committing suicide, even though Wanda's survival was necessary for a Predicted outcome. (B0E24)

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:It is impossible to know, but it seems distinctly less likely. After all, there were several times when Olive would have croaked Jillian if not for the prediction surrounding her.
True, but if not for the Prediction I suspect that Olive would never have gone out to personally recapture Jillian, and that would mean that Jillian would probably not be recaptured which would remove many opportunities for Olive to croak Jillian.

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:Perhaps it would be better not to put it that Predictions are entirely self fulfilling, but self fulfillment seems to be the easiest route for a Prediction to take.
It should look that way even if it's not true, because all we get to see is a story full of people who know about the Prediction and are acting upon that knowledge. We never get to see the other story, where the Prediction was never made. Until we actually see a Prediction that could only be self-fulfilling, we shouldn't jump to that conclusion because the implications of self-fulfilling prophecies are huge for Predictamancers; it turns them from ordinary useful casters into saboteurs. Since the vast majority of casters seem to be ordinary useful casters, we should assume that Predictamancers are until proven otherwise. We should even assume that about Carnymancers; reputation doesn't count as proof.

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:Wanda could be an example here of this really. If she had gone along with the Prediction, it would have been fulfilled very easily, but since she didn't, it was much more difficult for Fate to fulfill, though even there Fate had help from Olive attempting to fulfill it.
That outcome was always inevitable. The only thing that Wanda did was sabotage the negotiations that would have ended the war between Goodminton and Haffaton, and as a result she got a war of her own making. That wasn't making anything difficult for Fate; the only ones who found it troublesome where Wanda and the people who died in the battle.

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:Personally I feel that Predictions are a serious knot to deal with, and while I wouldn't necessarily say that not dealing with Predictamancers at all is the right course, I think they should be used to make Predictions with extreme caution... and with a carnymancer by your side ;P
But if you are wrong about Predictions being self-fulfilling, if all Predictions do is give you the ability to see inevitable events before the arrive, then Predictamancers are actually your best friends and choosing not to trust them is a huge mistake.

Godzfirefly wrote:Sure, she might say her lies and withholding of information is for the good of the side, but that could just as easily be a rationalization in her head to help her bypass Duty...
That's possible, but we know of no motive for her to be doing that. She was clearly attempting to arrange a treaty that would have prevented Haffaton from destroying Goodminton, and that clearly would have been good for Goodminton. Everything we know about the situation says she really was lying for the good of Goodminton, but I admit that there could have been some deeper scheme that we never saw any hints of in the story.

Godzfirefly wrote:You seem to be trying to make Delphi (and each other Predictamancer) sound like a saint who is only acting for the public welfare,
I wasn't talking about the public welfare, just the welfare of her ruler and her side. That's what all casters are supposed to do because they have Duty, so it should hardly be called saintly.

Godzfirefly wrote:If she was so able to "see the consequences of her actions" including her lies or her truths, then she'd have known that it was her lies that pushed Goodminton into destruction, since openness with her ruler from the beginning probably wouldn't have made him act in anger when the truce offer from Haffaton came to him.
We don't know that. It's possible that if she had been open from the beginning then there never would have even been an alliance offer because Wanda would never have popped. It's even possible that Delphie knew that being honest would guarantee the destruction of Goodminton, and that lying was the only way that Goodminton would have any hope at all. I'm not saying that it surely was that way in Delphie's case, but this is the sort of situation that Predictamancers must face sometimes. Sometimes lying really is the best thing for a side, so a ruler should always trust his Predictamancer, even when the Predictamancer is known to be a liar. Overlord Firebaugh would have lived to be a little wiser if he had.

drachefly wrote:She didn't get the prediction she was looking for. Case closed.
That doesn't explain it at all. If the Prediction was self-fulfilling, then Marie could have saved Banhammer's life just by keeping her mouth closed. The fact that she told everyone about the Prediction must have meant that she wanted Banhammer to die, which means that she did get the prediction she was looking for. Or that Predictions are not self-fulfilling.
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Re: Predictamancy and Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Postby Godzfirefly » Wed Mar 19, 2014 10:37 pm

Lilwik wrote:
Godzfirefly wrote:If she was so able to "see the consequences of her actions" including her lies or her truths, then she'd have known that it was her lies that pushed Goodminton into destruction, since openness with her ruler from the beginning probably wouldn't have made him act in anger when the truce offer from Haffaton came to him.
We don't know that. It's possible that if she had been open from the beginning then there never would have even been an alliance offer because Wanda would never have popped. It's even possible that Delphie knew that being honest would guarantee the destruction of Goodminton, and that lying was the only way that Goodminton would have any hope at all. I'm not saying that it surely was that way in Delphie's case, but this is the sort of situation that Predictamancers must face sometimes. Sometimes lying really is the best thing for a side, so a ruler should always trust his Predictamancer, even when the Predictamancer is known to be a liar. Overlord Firebaugh would have lived to be a little wiser if he had.


Delphie specifically said she hadn't Predicted that her choice to lie (or to give information about Goodminton's capabilities to Haffaton) would be better for Goodminton or not. It was her choice only. (In Book 0, Episode 24)
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Re: Predictamancy and Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Postby Lilwik » Wed Mar 19, 2014 11:10 pm

Godzfirefly wrote:Delphie specifically said she hadn't Predicted that her choice to lie (or to give information about Goodminton's capabilities to Haffaton) would be better for Goodminton or not. It was her choice only. (In Book 0, Episode 24)
After rereading that episode I think this must be an inference, not something that Delphie specifically said. I certainly can't find a quote for it. I can't even figure out how that might be inferred from what she did say.

She does say, "I was making a choice of my own, I suppose. To ease your way into Olive's service," which is obviously true, but says nothing about what she based her choice on. Did she have a Prediction that warned her that Goodminton would be destroyed if she didn't negotiate the deal? She doesn't say and we have no way of knowing.
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Re: Predictamancy and Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Wed Mar 19, 2014 11:19 pm

Lilwik wrote:
Godzfirefly wrote:Delphie specifically said she hadn't Predicted that her choice to lie (or to give information about Goodminton's capabilities to Haffaton) would be better for Goodminton or not. It was her choice only. (In Book 0, Episode 24)
After rereading that episode I think this must be an inference, not something that Delphie specifically said. I certainly can't find a quote for it. I can't even figure out how that might be inferred from what she did say.

She does say, "I was making a choice of my own, I suppose. To ease your way into Olive's service," which is obviously true, but says nothing about what she based her choice on. Did she have a Prediction that warned her that Goodminton would be destroyed if she didn't negotiate the deal? She doesn't say and we have no way of knowing.

Well, actually we know that she doesn't have a prediction like that, because at one point she says that Goodminton (along with herself, Clay, etc.) has no fate at all, which would mean no prediction mentions the side itself, which means she couldn't have a prediction that says Goodminton would be destroyed or saved if she did or didn't do anything in particular.
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Re: Predictamancy and Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Postby Lilwik » Wed Mar 19, 2014 11:40 pm

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:Well, actually we know that she doesn't have a prediction like that, because at one point she says that Goodminton (along with herself, Clay, etc.) has no fate at all, which would mean no prediction mentions the side itself, which means she couldn't have a prediction that says Goodminton would be destroyed or saved if she did or didn't do anything in particular.
She said it in the present tense, which only tells us about the state of Goodminton's Fate at the time she was speaking. If Goodminton was fated to be destroyed if Wanda wasn't popped, then that was a previous fate that Delphie avoided by making sure that Wanda was popped, and doing that might have left Goodminton with no fate. Delphie could have spent countless turns deliberately preventing Goodminton from acquiring fates because those fates would all have been destruction. It could be something as simple as Delphie Predicting that if she told Firebaugh the truth about popping a caster then Firebaugh would refuse to allow it. That's not about Goodminton being fated or not; it's just a simple little Prediction that is only relevant for a single conversation.
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Re: Predictamancy and Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Postby Godzfirefly » Thu Mar 20, 2014 11:01 am

Lilwik wrote:
Taikei no Yuurei wrote:Well, actually we know that she doesn't have a prediction like that, because at one point she says that Goodminton (along with herself, Clay, etc.) has no fate at all, which would mean no prediction mentions the side itself, which means she couldn't have a prediction that says Goodminton would be destroyed or saved if she did or didn't do anything in particular.
She said it in the present tense, which only tells us about the state of Goodminton's Fate at the time she was speaking. If Goodminton was fated to be destroyed if Wanda wasn't popped, then that was a previous fate that Delphie avoided by making sure that Wanda was popped, and doing that might have left Goodminton with no fate. Delphie could have spent countless turns deliberately preventing Goodminton from acquiring fates because those fates would all have been destruction. It could be something as simple as Delphie Predicting that if she told Firebaugh the truth about popping a caster then Firebaugh would refuse to allow it. That's not about Goodminton being fated or not; it's just a simple little Prediction that is only relevant for a single conversation.


That is a LOT of "could haves" there. What the quote does specifically say is this...

"Yes! To Goodminton! It was the only way Goodminton could survive you," said Delphie, tears flowing freely down her face.

"You don't know that," Wanda said, pointing at her. "You never Predicted that."

Delphie kept sobbing into her lap. Her words were muffled by her hands. "No. I can't. Fate doesn't care about us. That's the terror of it; we have no Fate. The world doesn't care if we live or not. Only about you."


Delphie was saying the only way that Goodminton could survive Wanda was for Delphie to give details about Goodminton's military capabilities to an enemy and then lie to Lord Firebaugh about it. Wanda called her out about THAT, and Delphie admitted that she had no Prediction relating to it. Delphie betrayed her side and lied to her ruler of her own volition, with no Predictamancy saying it was beneficial to her side at all.
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Re: Predictamancy and Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Postby Lilwik » Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:18 pm

Godzfirefly wrote:Wanda called her out about THAT, and Delphie admitted that she had no Prediction relating to it. Delphie betrayed her side and lied to her ruler of her own volition, with no Predictamancy saying it was beneficial to her side at all.
You're probably right, but not because of what Delphie says. Taking Delphie's words at face value only proves that Delphie had no Prediction guaranteeing Goodminton's survival, even if Goodminton had followed the plan, and even now Delphie doesn't know whether Goodminton will survive. The evidence that she didn't have other Predictions to justify her earlier actions is in what Delphie doesn't say. Given the situation, I imagine that Delphie would have been eager to defend herself and hide behind Predictamancy. If she ever had a Prediction that required her to take an action because to do otherwise would destroy Goodminton, then I'm surprised she didn't mention it in her own defense.

Even so, I bet it was her Predictamancy that told her to lie to Firebaugh about Wanda's popping and the plan. She wouldn't lie about that just for fun. She had a plan to save Goodminton and most people would expect Firebaugh's cooperation in saving Goodminton. The fact that she chose to lie about it is pretty clear evidence that she knew that Firebaugh wouldn't support the plan. This applies even if Delphie had no Predictamancy guarantee that following her plan would save Goodminton, and no a guarantee that not following her plan would destroy Goodminton.
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Re: Predictamancy and Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:30 pm

Lilwik wrote:Even so, I bet it was her Predictamancy that told her to lie to Firebaugh about Wanda's popping and the plan.

Or the fact that Firebaugh never seemed particularly interested in/knowledgeable about/trusting of his casters. Though that could be because Delphi was keeping him in the dark. Bit of a chicken/egg scenario there.
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Re: Predictamancy and Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Postby drachefly » Fri Mar 21, 2014 1:33 pm

Lilwik wrote:
drachefly wrote:She didn't get the prediction she was looking for. Case closed.
That doesn't explain it at all. If the Prediction was self-fulfilling, then Marie could have saved Banhammer's life just by keeping her mouth closed. The fact that she told everyone about the Prediction must have meant that she wanted Banhammer to die, which means that she did get the prediction she was looking for. Or that Predictions are not self-fulfilling.


Once the prediction was made, even if it's self-fulfilling, it's too late to do anything about it. Her frown, racing heart, whatever, will bring it about.
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Re: Predictamancy and Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Postby Lilwik » Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:13 pm

drachefly wrote:Her frown, racing heart, whatever, will bring it about.
I see what you mean, but surely that's not what's usually meant by a self-fulfilling prophecy. A self-fulfilling prophecy is responsible for doing the work of making its predicted outcome come true, and to do that work it needs muscle. Every self-fulfilling prophecy needs people to hear the prophecy who are motivated to act upon the prophecy and somehow bring it about, intentionally or unintentionally. In the case of bad self-fulfilling prophecies, they are ironic because it becomes apparent that if people hadn't acted to avoid the prophecy then they wouldn't have come true. If a prophecy can be made to happen by a mere frown from one who is actually trying to not act, then that prophecy must have been almost inevitable from the beginning. It's so close to inevitable that I think it would be only fair to put that Prediction into the inevitable category, not the self-fulfilling category.
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Re: Predictamancy and Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:30 pm

Lilwik wrote:
drachefly wrote:Her frown, racing heart, whatever, will bring it about.
I see what you mean, but surely that's not what's usually meant by a self-fulfilling prophecy. A self-fulfilling prophecy is responsible for doing the work of making its predicted outcome come true, and to do that work it needs muscle. Every self-fulfilling prophecy needs people to hear the prophecy who are motivated to act upon the prophecy and somehow bring it about, intentionally or unintentionally. In the case of bad self-fulfilling prophecies, they are ironic because it becomes apparent that if people hadn't acted to avoid the prophecy then they wouldn't have come true. If a prophecy can be made to happen by a mere frown from one who is actually trying to not act, then that prophecy must have been almost inevitable from the beginning. It's so close to inevitable that I think it would be only fair to put that Prediction into the inevitable category, not the self-fulfilling category.

Marie, why do you start frowning every time I talk about my 100 turn plan?

:D
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Re: Predictamancy and Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Postby Tarvok » Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:13 am

The thread is bit long-winded, so I thought I'd just throw this out there, my theory with regard to the relationship between Carnymancy and Predictamancy.

I recently re-watched the Star Trek: The Next Generation episode in which Riker, Worf, and Data get trapped in an alien "human habitat" modeled after a bad novel about gangsters in a casino. The events in this place move along according to the contents of the book. The fact that the three knew the book (Data absorbed the entire thing in a few seconds) is the Predictamancy of the situation.

The Carnymancy is in how they handled the situation: there was nothing in the story about them leaving the casino, so they couldn't. However, there were some poorly fleshed out characters that did leave the casino: some foreign investors who buy the place for no apparent reason. They defeat the scenario by becoming the foreign investors... and then walking out like they owned the place.

Predictamancers probably know broad details about the script, but not the particulars. Carnymancers can manipulate prediction by bluffing the universe.
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Re: Predictamancy and Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Postby Lilwik » Sat Mar 22, 2014 3:24 am

Tarvok wrote:I recently re-watched the Star Trek: The Next Generation episode in which Riker, Worf, and Data get trapped in an alien "human habitat" modeled after a bad novel about gangsters in a casino. The events in this place move along according to the contents of the book. The fact that the three knew the book (Data absorbed the entire thing in a few seconds) is the Predictamancy of the situation.
That was an explicitly contrived situation. We know roughly why and how it was contrived, since it was an attempt to create a comfortable and familiar environment for a human by recreating the content of a book. Surely the reason it wouldn't let people out wasn't because it was slavishly devoted to the story, but because the whole exercise would be pointless if the human could just wander off to die in the wilderness.

Surely this isn't a good analogy for Erfworld. We've seen no reason to suppose that Erfworld is contrived. We've got a few things that suggest it might be contrived, like how Stanley seems to think that the Titans are on his side and he is part of their plan, as in B1P32. On the other hand, even if we assume that's not Stanley's wishful thinking, all that really says is that the Titans have some direction that they want Erfworld to go in and the power to make it happen; it certainly doesn't say that everything that a Predictamancer ever Predicted was contrived to be that way. Stanley never said that the Titans were micro-managers. Until something makes it clear that events are contrived, surely we should assume that the story is what it seems to be: a natural progression of events and characters making real decisions. That's part of the unspoken contract that we all agree to when we read a story.
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Re: Predictamancy and Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Postby drachefly » Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:02 am

Lilwik wrote:
drachefly wrote:Her frown, racing heart, whatever, will bring it about.
I see what you mean, but surely that's not what's usually meant by a self-fulfilling prophecy. A self-fulfilling prophecy is responsible for doing the work of making its predicted outcome come true, and to do that work it needs muscle...


Or the butterfly effect. Sure, epistemically you wouldn't be able to tell the difference, but ontologically it would be. What is the point of this argument? About what it IS, if I recall. What we can tell it is, is quite different.
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Re: Predictamancy and Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Sat Mar 22, 2014 4:45 pm

Lilwik wrote:
Tarvok wrote:I recently re-watched the Star Trek: The Next Generation episode in which Riker, Worf, and Data get trapped in an alien "human habitat" modeled after a bad novel about gangsters in a casino. The events in this place move along according to the contents of the book. The fact that the three knew the book (Data absorbed the entire thing in a few seconds) is the Predictamancy of the situation.
That was an explicitly contrived situation. We know roughly why and how it was contrived, since it was an attempt to create a comfortable and familiar environment for a human by recreating the content of a book. Surely the reason it wouldn't let people out wasn't because it was slavishly devoted to the story, but because the whole exercise would be pointless if the human could just wander off to die in the wilderness.

Surely this isn't a good analogy for Erfworld. We've seen no reason to suppose that Erfworld is contrived. We've got a few things that suggest it might be contrived, like how Stanley seems to think that the Titans are on his side and he is part of their plan, as in B1P32. On the other hand, even if we assume that's not Stanley's wishful thinking, all that really says is that the Titans have some direction that they want Erfworld to go in and the power to make it happen; it certainly doesn't say that everything that a Predictamancer ever Predicted was contrived to be that way. Stanley never said that the Titans were micro-managers. Until something makes it clear that events are contrived, surely we should assume that the story is what it seems to be: a natural progression of events and characters making real decisions. That's part of the unspoken contract that we all agree to when we read a story.

I don't know, I think it is a fairly good comparison. I don't see how being contrived comes into it. Having a prediction is like having read the book that the program was based on. It tells you that certain things will happen with absolute certainty, but because the program was made to be flexible (thanks to the fact that someone was living in it), certain specific aspects can be changed. Three people will buy the hotel and then leave. They were supposed to be foreign investors, but because of the flexibility (call it... free will?) three other people became the people who bought the hotel. Interestingly enough, the 'real' foreign investors never showed up to try and buy the place. While possibly just a plot hole, even that sounds like Erfworld predictions. Because the buying the hotel condition was satisfied by Ryker and the others, the program (fate) didn't have to produce the foreign investors.

I admit it isn't a perfect comparison, but it does lead to an interesting way to interpret Predictamancy. Perhaps you can think of it as having the outline for a book. You know that Bob is going to die at some point, that Amy and Calvin are going to get married, and that Debbie will cheat with Calvin. But you don't know how all that comes about. And maybe with Carnymancy you can change just enough in the story to turn Bob into Calvin, or perhaps even produce an Eric somehow.

Predictamancy is also alot like watching a TV show or movie (especially cartoons and anime with continuing stories). You know that the hero is going to survive and win the day somehow (Barring a few particular shows and the like, but you generally know that'll be the case from the start), but you don't know how, so you still watch it, because you want to find out how he gets out of that jam. Predictamancy tells you that ending, but the parts inbetween are still important in their own way. After all, I predict that everyone who reads this will die within 100 years of doing so. But that doesn't mean it's pointless to live :P
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Re: Predictamancy and Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Postby Lilwik » Sat Mar 22, 2014 5:35 pm

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:I don't see how being contrived comes into it. Having a prediction is like having read the book that the program was based on. It tells you that certain things will happen with absolute certainty, but because the program was made to be flexible (thanks to the fact that someone was living in it), certain specific aspects can be changed.
The difference between reading a book and making a prediction (at least in the real world) is that when you make a prediction you are forced to deal with all the endless possibilities for how future events may unfold, and a guaranteed prediction will ensure that every one of those endless possibilities leads to the predicted outcome. On the other side, a book is merely a prerecorded sequence of events, and willing suspension of disbelief is supposed to forbid us from seeing Erfworld that way.

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:While possibly just a plot hole, even that sounds like Erfworld predictions. Because the buying the hotel condition was satisfied by Ryker and the others, the program (fate) didn't have to produce the foreign investors.
We have yet to actually see Erfworld behave that way and whether it can or not is the difference between being contrived and not. If something like that does happen, then we may be forced to conclude that the events are being contrived somehow. In that way, Digdoug may turn out to contain the most important revelation in all of Erfworld, only to be overshadowed by the identity of the only enemy worth fighting.
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Re: Predictamancy and Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Sat Mar 22, 2014 8:12 pm

As I said, a better refinement wouldn't be a book, but the outline of a book. Remember that the program in the star trek episode didn't follow the book line for line for line, it had a fair bit of flexibility to accommodate the human's actions (not to mention alot of blank spaces to fill in since it was such a bad book). Either way, an outline works far better.

And you're right, we haven't exactly seen Fate be so blatant as to simply fabricate units out of nothing (well, actually we have) to meet certain criteria, but Predictions do have a certain way of being fulfilled however they were fulfilled. We haven't for example seen a case of a Prediction (like the air attack on Homekey) being fulfilled once, then a second event that could have been what the Prediction was about occurring. If Charlie attacks Homekey in force and fulfills the Prediction, and we see no evidence at all that there was ever going to be any other kind of attack, then it would seem that Predictions are in fact self-fulfilling (As I suggested earlier), or do indeed have a force (Fate) that can actively manipulate things to make it come true, but don't much care how it comes true (much like the program from Star Trek), aka it can contrive.
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Re: Predictamancy and Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Postby Lilwik » Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:22 pm

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:As I said, a better refinement wouldn't be a book, but the outline of a book. Remember that the program in the star trek episode didn't follow the book line for line for line, it had a fair bit of flexibility to accommodate the human's actions (not to mention a lot of blank spaces to fill in since it was such a bad book).
That doesn't change anything important. They are still doing a choreographed dance, even if they are allowed some improvisation in places. It's only fair to Erfworld that we assume that all of the events of the story, big and little, are real and not contrived, until the story clearly tells us otherwise.

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:We haven't for example seen a case of a Prediction (like the air attack on Homekey) being fulfilled once, then a second event that could have been what the Prediction was about occurring.
Even if we saw that it wouldn't really be evidence of anything. The world never ends, so history has to repeat itself eventually. I believe that Erfworld isn't contrived because that's what we should all believe about all fiction for as long as we can, not because of evidence. It's the sort of thing that could never be proven, though Erfworld is one of those rare stories that actually looks like it might falsify it.

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:If Charlie attacks Homekey in force and fulfills the Prediction, and we see no evidence at all that there was ever going to be any other kind of attack, then it would seem that Predictions are in fact self-fulfilling (As I suggested earlier), or do indeed have a force (Fate) that can actively manipulate things to make it come true, but don't much care how it comes true (much like the program from Star Trek), aka it can contrive.
Agreed. If that happens, I will surely take it as a clear message that Erfworld has an active Fate that is a supernatural person that is calling the shots. I'd still reject the self-fulfilling Prediction option, just because it makes no sense for Predictamancers to do that sort of thing. Having to choose one or the other, I choose the Fate monster.
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