Taikei no Yuurei wrote:We haven't heard the prediction, but when Parson asks Issac "How many predictions am I fulfilling?" after being told he was only allowed to be summoned because he was going to defeat Charlie, Issac replies "Three. Well, four." which to me indicates that he is in fact predicted to defeat Charlie.
Unfortunately Isaac never got a chance to explain what he meant. Parson said "prophecies", not "Predictions", and Isaac might have taken it to mean "How many groups arranged for my summoning expecting me to do something?" Some of those prophecies might have the magic guarantee of Prediction, and some of them might not.
Taikei no Yuurei wrote:But we've learned from Delphie (among others) that Fate is a force that can apply pressures of various kinds.
How exactly did Delphie indicate that? Delphie is the one who said that Fate wouldn't stop Wanda from committing suicide, even though Wanda's survival was necessary for a Predicted outcome. (B0E24
Taikei no Yuurei wrote:It is impossible to know, but it seems distinctly less likely. After all, there were several times when Olive would have croaked Jillian if not for the prediction surrounding her.
True, but if not for the Prediction I suspect that Olive would never have gone out to personally recapture Jillian, and that would mean that Jillian would probably not be recaptured which would remove many opportunities for Olive to croak Jillian.
Taikei no Yuurei wrote:Perhaps it would be better not to put it that Predictions are entirely self fulfilling, but self fulfillment seems to be the easiest route for a Prediction to take.
It should look that way even if it's not true, because all we get to see is a story full of people who know about the Prediction and are acting upon that knowledge. We never get to see the other story, where the Prediction was never made. Until we actually see a Prediction that could only be self-fulfilling, we shouldn't jump to that conclusion because the implications of self-fulfilling prophecies are huge for Predictamancers; it turns them from ordinary useful casters into saboteurs. Since the vast majority of casters seem to be ordinary useful casters, we should assume that Predictamancers are until proven otherwise. We should even assume that about Carnymancers; reputation doesn't count as proof.
Taikei no Yuurei wrote:Wanda could be an example here of this really. If she had gone along with the Prediction, it would have been fulfilled very easily, but since she didn't, it was much more difficult for Fate to fulfill, though even there Fate had help from Olive attempting to fulfill it.
That outcome was always inevitable. The only thing that Wanda did was sabotage the negotiations that would have ended the war between Goodminton and Haffaton, and as a result she got a war of her own making. That wasn't making anything difficult for Fate; the only ones who found it troublesome where Wanda and the people who died in the battle.
Taikei no Yuurei wrote:Personally I feel that Predictions are a serious knot to deal with, and while I wouldn't necessarily say that not dealing with Predictamancers at all is the right course, I think they should be used to make Predictions with extreme caution... and with a carnymancer by your side ;P
But if you are wrong about Predictions being self-fulfilling, if all Predictions do is give you the ability to see inevitable events before the arrive, then Predictamancers are actually your best friends and choosing not to trust them is a huge mistake.
Godzfirefly wrote:Sure, she might say her lies and withholding of information is for the good of the side, but that could just as easily be a rationalization in her head to help her bypass Duty...
That's possible, but we know of no motive for her to be doing that. She was clearly attempting to arrange a treaty that would have prevented Haffaton from destroying Goodminton, and that clearly would have been good for Goodminton. Everything we know about the situation says she really was lying for the good of Goodminton, but I admit that there could have been some deeper scheme that we never saw any hints of in the story.
Godzfirefly wrote:You seem to be trying to make Delphi (and each other Predictamancer) sound like a saint who is only acting for the public welfare,
I wasn't talking about the public welfare, just the welfare of her ruler and her side. That's what all casters are supposed to do because they have Duty, so it should hardly be called saintly.
Godzfirefly wrote:If she was so able to "see the consequences of her actions" including her lies or her truths, then she'd have known that it was her lies that pushed Goodminton into destruction, since openness with her ruler from the beginning probably wouldn't have made him act in anger when the truce offer from Haffaton came to him.
We don't know that. It's possible that if she had been open from the beginning then there never would have even been an alliance offer because Wanda would never have popped. It's even possible that Delphie knew that being honest would guarantee the destruction of Goodminton, and that lying was the only way that Goodminton would have any hope at all. I'm not saying that it surely was that way in Delphie's case, but this is the sort of situation that Predictamancers must face sometimes. Sometimes lying really is the best thing for a side, so a ruler should always trust his Predictamancer, even when the Predictamancer is known to be a liar. Overlord Firebaugh would have lived to be a little wiser if he had.
drachefly wrote:She didn't get the prediction she was looking for. Case closed.
That doesn't explain it at all. If the Prediction was self-fulfilling, then Marie could have saved Banhammer's life just by keeping her mouth closed. The fact that she told everyone about the Prediction must have meant that she wanted Banhammer to die, which means that she did get the prediction she was looking for. Or that Predictions are not self-fulfilling.