Lilwik wrote:That doesn't change anything important. They are still doing a choreographed dance, even if they are allowed some improvisation in places. It's only fair to Erfworld that we assume that all of the events of the story, big and little, are real and not contrived, until the story clearly tells us otherwise.Taikei no Yuurei wrote:As I said, a better refinement wouldn't be a book, but the outline of a book. Remember that the program in the star trek episode didn't follow the book line for line for line, it had a fair bit of flexibility to accommodate the human's actions (not to mention a lot of blank spaces to fill in since it was such a bad book).
Isn't that exactly what predictions are? Showing us that there are certain dance steps that have to be hit? This city has to be attacked and have no living units survive the attack. This city has to be attacked by a massive air force. This unit has to attune to an Arkentool. This unit has to serve this other unit. This unit must kill this other unit. We have yet to see a prediction be thwarted utterly. We have seen them resolve unexpectedly, we have seen them resolve with a different interpretation, but we have not seen one enter a condition where it could not be resolved.
I mean, like in the next few turns. Not hundreds of turns down the road.Even if we saw that it wouldn't really be evidence of anything. The world never ends, so history has to repeat itself eventually. I believe that Erfworld isn't contrived because that's what we should all believe about all fiction for as long as we can, not because of evidence. It's the sort of thing that could never be proven, though Erfworld is one of those rare stories that actually looks like it might falsify it.Taikei no Yuurei wrote:We haven't for example seen a case of a Prediction (like the air attack on Homekey) being fulfilled once, then a second event that could have been what the Prediction was about occurring.
Self-fulfillment doesn't mean the Fate monster isn't 'real' Just that self-fulfillment is one of the tools it uses. Also, everyone always talks as if Predictamancers know about self fulfillment if that is the case, but they might not. So no, Marie didn't purposefully kill her king by telling him to allow for self fulfillment. She just didn't know that the prediction would cause self fulfillment to occur. Remember that we're seeing quite a few predictions, and from angles that Erfworlders can't, so the line that seems to be showing to us (and clearly isn't.. well, clear) would be even harder for them to see.Agreed. If that happens, I will surely take it as a clear message that Erfworld has an active Fate that is a supernatural person that is calling the shots. I'd still reject the self-fulfilling Prediction option, just because it makes no sense for Predictamancers to do that sort of thing. Having to choose one or the other, I choose the Fate monster.Taikei no Yuurei wrote:If Charlie attacks Homekey in force and fulfills the Prediction, and we see no evidence at all that there was ever going to be any other kind of attack, then it would seem that Predictions are in fact self-fulfilling (As I suggested earlier), or do indeed have a force (Fate) that can actively manipulate things to make it come true, but don't much care how it comes true (much like the program from Star Trek), aka it can contrive.
This was an old thing I brought up a while ago when Parson was having trouble getting his bracer to calculate him casting the scroll, which seems to confirm the existence of the 'fate monster'. The bracer kept flipping between a near 100% and near 0% chance for Parson casting the scroll that would (supposedly) take him home. My interpretation of that has always been that as a unit of his abilities, he had a virtually 100% chance of using a scroll, but as a unit that is tied up with predictions and subject to the fate monster, there was a virtually 0% chance that the fate monster would allow him to actually cast it. He tried to cast it, and the fate monster intervened with a rock to the head, which conveniently only knocked him out (right next to the portal, safety, and healing) instead of killing him