Where is Jillian Going?

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Re: Where is Jillian Going?

Postby Incomptinence » Sun Nov 01, 2009 5:36 am

She is going west obviously.

It is the best direction.
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Re: Where is Jillian Going?

Postby Decorus » Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:35 am

What ever Charlie's plan is Jillian has popped barely enough infantry for it....

Lets look at this in simple terms all the Marbits in the tunnels + Jillian's infantry, + Charlie + Jillian's air force vrs what ever is not out attacking Jetstone or being used to quickly move troops around as part of the Dwagon Express service. Thats not a lot of troops nor would Stanley really keep a massive supply on hand as he has what 10+ other cities between him and the Royals that all need defending as well....
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Re: Where is Jillian Going?

Postby BCCroaker » Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:58 pm

Well, maybe Charlie's plan involves getting Stanley to a definite place outside a city - he likes to play head games with his opponents and an open country ambush is Jillian's kind of work.
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Re: Where is Jillian Going?

Postby dirocyn » Mon Nov 02, 2009 4:10 pm

Roketter wrote:The main reason i think Jillian's not going to attack Stanley is...

To do that, the only win factor in the equation would be to have the aid of hundreds of Charle's Archons. Her few megalowiffs, powerfull as they are, won't change the outcome for real.


She doesn't know that. As far as the RCII knows, Stanley has the Army of the Damned and one croakmancer (far from his capitol), 6 dwagons, some other casters and whatever units he could pop over the last dozen-odd turns. Since Stanley was broke before the Battle for Gobwin Knob, they probably don't think there's a whole lot there--certainly not enough to rebuild to a properly defended level 5. They're expecting to find a level 3 tops, with a half-dozen twolls, a couple-hundred pikers, maybe a dozen dwagons, and some crap golems. And some decrypted who are far away from their croakmancer. Jillian's force alone is probably bigger than they expect Stanley's force to be, Jillian's leadership bonus should come close to canceling Stanley's. Jillian can one-hit whack a dwagon, with an armada she can defeat several. The Royals vs. Tools issue has kept Charlie out of work, he might have 100+ archons to spare for this.

Second, if an army that passes the laugh test appears on GK's doorstep, that puts Stanley in "check." He may have to bring back his strike force to protect his capitol. And he won't be able to get them there for several turns unless he uses the dwagon express for just Ansom and/or Wanda. Which would leave that strike force without leadership and artifact bonuses, surrounded by a powerful army that's not hurting for leadership.

Third, if there are two simultaneous battles happening far apart from each other, the Arkenpliers can't be at both. Which means Stanley will actually lose some troops even if he does win both battles. If Stanley loses either battle, the threat of Gobwin Knob (the possibility it might take over the whole Erf) is eliminated. Worst case for the Coalition--Stanley gets croaked, Wanda becomes a barbarian and the decrypted don't disband.

Before I wrote that, I was thinking she's going to back up Jetstone--possibly to strike Wanda if she's ever out of Ansom's hex. Now I'm thinking Gobwin Knob.
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Re: Where is Jillian Going?

Postby TiMothra » Mon Nov 02, 2009 4:32 pm

It took a combination force to fail to take GK before; tunnel forces and siege forces against the outer walls. Any strategy relying solely on air superiority would seem less balanced than the previous (unsuccessful) attempt. Remember, GK was a difficult city to take before, and is now a (theoretical) lvl 8. The fact that GK has a glut of air defenses (fresh dwagons) would suggest this cannot possibly be the full plan.

Enter (or exeunt) the gobwins. These were previously the main tunnels defense, prior to Sizemore bolstering the earth-type golem corps. However, these are not currently among GK forces. It's also unclear as to whether GK has been popping spidews, tunnel-capable heavies. So what GK currently has for tunnel defense is unclear, possibly no more than garrisoned hobgobwins, twolls and decrypted. Half of the tunnel zone remains, despite the new lava lake (Summer update 002), so attack from this avenue is still viable.

Expect any attack on GK to be at least 2-pronged like the last; by definition tunnel and air, as land assault would be seen and taken out easily by the dwagnet. Jillian having 'enough' infantry would lend support to this possibility; having at least a warlord in the lead stack would probably be necessary to martial and command gobwin forces, who would engage indiscriminately and spoil a surprise assault. Prior to TBfGK, access to the tunnels required at least some overland movement, so I suspect new sapping is taking place as they speak.

Dirocyn brings up a good point, too. It's not clear in any way that any other side knows about the Stanley's fresh dwagon recruits, or the dwagnet relay system. It was addressed before, that Archons entering GK battlespace were immediately swatted, so intel is probably scarce from inside GK territory, which now includes 10+ unit cities, popping non-decrypted units. Also, there have been ~60 turns of dwagon hunting for Stanley, which could mean as many as 90 dwagons total.
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Re: Where is Jillian Going?

Postby Lord Kasavin » Mon Nov 02, 2009 6:01 pm

I'd like to point out that Stanley still has decrypted gobwins to do the tunnel defense, and any infantry (of which he has plenty of decrypted at the capital) can tunnel fight as well. And Sizemore alone all but turned the battle during the first defense. Now, Sizemore might be able to do something crazy like flood the tunnels with lava. How's that for a trap. Point is, tunnels are still very secure for GK.
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Re: Where is Jillian Going?

Postby raphfrk » Mon Nov 02, 2009 7:30 pm

Lord Kasavin wrote:And Sizemore alone all but turned the battle during the first defense.


Also, he has gained 2 levels since then, so is even more powerful.
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Re: Where is Jillian Going?

Postby HailGreen28 » Tue Nov 03, 2009 12:01 am

Kudos to those who suggested trying to set up an ambush of the Dwagon Express. Very smart.

Jillian might also try barreling into the Decrypted Army, targeting Ansom.. If Jetstone has little air power, Ansom might not have much air defense, making a selective attack possible. Then again I don't know if Ansom has enough Archons and Dwagons with him to render such an attack suicidal.
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Re: Where is Jillian Going?

Postby Glenn » Tue Nov 03, 2009 2:15 am

It's possible that Jillian's mission won't take her anywhere near Jetstone or Gobwin Knob at first. Could she be going after the fourth arkentool?
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Re: Where is Jillian Going?

Postby raphfrk » Tue Nov 03, 2009 6:10 am

Glenn wrote:Could she be going after the fourth arkentool?


Given how much value has been place on the current 3, I can't see that the 4th is held by a side that cannot defend it against Jillian.

One possible option would be that its location is unknown to most, and Charlie has determined where it is. Ofc, in that case, presumably he would capture it himself, though sending Jillian allows him to appear non-aggressive.
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Re: Where is Jillian Going?

Postby dirocyn » Tue Nov 03, 2009 12:23 pm

Lord Kasavin wrote:I'd like to point out that Stanley still has decrypted gobwins to do the tunnel defense, and any infantry (of which he has plenty of decrypted at the capital) can tunnel fight as well. And Sizemore alone all but turned the battle during the first defense. Now, Sizemore might be able to do something crazy like flood the tunnels with lava. How's that for a trap. Point is, tunnels are still very secure for GK.


There can't be very many decrypted gobwins. They took casualties in the tunnel battle (those casualties would have been among the uncroaked at the wall) and all evidence suggests that when uncroaked are destroyed, they turn to dust--which leaves too little to decrypt. So only those gobwins that survived the tunnel battle would be available to decrypt, and Wanda decrypted "most" of those. (Summer update 45) Presumably all (or very nearly all) of the marbits were croaked in the tunnel battle and uncroaked for the walls, these would also be unavailable for decryption. I don't recall live gobwins or spidews in the battle at the walls, there had to have been some live gobwins or there would be none now to decrypt. Figure at best GK has half as many decrypted gobwins as it had live gobwins before the battle--but no tribe, and apparently no way to obtain more.

To apply a football metaphor to the tunnel fight, the gobwins and spidews are the defensive line, where Sizemore and the Golems are the safeties. The safeties aren't going to sack any quarterbacks if the defensive line is at half-strength. This is a pretty big deal, Stanley's got a reason to be upset. Okay, they've got decrypted infantry to fill in the gaps--but infantry doesn't get the tunnel bonus like gobwins do. They can defend the tunnels, but not as easily as before.
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Re: Where is Jillian Going?

Postby TiMothra » Tue Nov 03, 2009 12:33 pm

"If Don King is smart, and he is, then I think he already trusts you. Based on that." Vinny poked a finger in the air, punctuating his point. "At least as far as bein' able ta outguess Stanley. And that's what he wants you for, I bet. I bet we're plannin' to take out Gobwin Knob, and he wants you on as an advisor."

"My consulting fees are pretty steep," she said with a grim smirk. She lifted the sword from her lap and held it up between them. "But if I get another shot at Stanley...I mean a personal shot? I'll do it for upkeep-plus."

Summer update 016.

This exchange perfectly describes the details of the current arrangement between Don and Jillian. He's financing her gwiffon armada, in exchange for her popping an heir (which takes up one third of her cities' potential production, pre-expansion to Jitterati turf) and what (most likely) is the promise that she attack Stanley. From her own words, attacking Stanley is currently her chief ambition, she hasn't mentioned Wanda, Ansom, Jetstone, etc.

Plus it would make sense from Don's perspective; FAQ lies directly between TV and GK. By getting a better feel for the big unknown foe (Parson, against whom Vinnie & Co. only barely engaged), it will allow Don to avoid his aversion to 'striking unknown enemies from a place of power". He's even got some insurance that FAQ will remain standing if Jillian goes kamikaze in the new heir.
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Re: Where is Jillian Going?

Postby Decorus » Tue Nov 03, 2009 12:49 pm

Currently GK's tunnels are swarming with Marbits rather then Gobwins....
with a very high chance Charlie is behind it.

Also Charlie's Nominal fee for a thinkagram is 2500 Schmuckers for 2 way communication.
Something tells me that he doesn't need to do merc work to upkeep 600+ archons and 700+ golems.
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Re: Where is Jillian Going?

Postby Roketter » Tue Nov 03, 2009 1:49 pm

Jillian's hatred of Stanley is mainly a misunderstanding, she just doesn't know it was Wanda who betrayed them, Wanda who decrypted Ansom without Stanley telling her to do so, Wanda who sumoned the perfect Warlord, Wanda who tried to mind-control her without orders to do so, etc.

Stanley isn't that personal about Jillian. The only reason he was happy to capture her was handing her to Wanda for the lols.

I don't know why shouldn't the RCC know that Gobwin Knob has more dwagons, they know the Arkanehammer tames and pops dwagons, even if they don't know how fast they are scheduling the dwagon-taming business.

Perhaps the quest for the fourth arkanetool is a good theory, it would explain why does Charlie use his fortune to keep expanding his business and upkeep huge archon armies when he could conquer some cities and become a "Normal" faction.
He could need a huge army of Archons to overcome some sort of barbarian monster keeping the arkanetool as it's "Precioussss"
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Re: Where is Jillian Going?

Postby TiMothra » Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:07 pm

"Look, Charlie, I'm gonna be blunt here. From what I hear, everyone assumes you're with Stanley, because of your attunement. Every Royal side is treating this as the War of the Arkentools."

"Every side, Your Highness?"

"Me, you mean? I just wanna croak Stanley." Gah, why was she telling him that? Titans...

"You may want more than that," said Charlie. "I certainly do. But croaking Stanley the Tool would be a good start for both of us."

"Huh. Really." That was a surprise. Disband it...now she was interested. How did he always manage that?

"Queen Jillian, you were not the only one who lost much at the Battle for Gobwin Knob."

Her eyes narrowed. "You didn't lose what I did, Charlie."

"I lost more than you can know," he said. "My secrets have been compromised. You can't imagine what that may mean."

She mentally compared the loss of Prince Ansom to the loss of Charlie's trade secrets, and scoffed.

Charlie pressed on, though. "And you didn't lose what you think you did. Not completely." The image in Jillian's mind turned into a strange picture. It was a set of drawn velvet curtains, in deep blue. "I need to show you something. If you find this as disturbing as I do, please consider accepting my counsel and assistance, both in secret."

She shook her head in bewilderment. Her mount shifted beneath her, nervously. "All right."

The curtains pulled back. Behind them was a still image, in full color and excellent clarity.

"The Chief Croakamancer and Chief Warlord of Gobwin Knob, six turns ago, as they seized the city of Orgchart."

Summer update 041-

Up to this point Jillian had, according to her inner monologue, been gearing up to attack Stanley. She didn't even know that Ansom was anything but croaked. Charlie gave her this information for free(!). Charlie is 92% likely to be involved with the missing gobwins, that is to say, he is likely already forming a plot to attack GK. Charlie provided Jillian with the plans to secure her holdings defense (Western Giants, which I believe Jillian brought to her side herself without further assistance from Charlie), which freed up her air forces for an attack. Charlie has suggested the croaking Stanley would be a good start for both of them, and provides very compelling evidence why.

Jillian is headed for GK.
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Re: Where is Jillian Going?

Postby DevilDan » Tue Nov 03, 2009 5:56 pm

Croaking Stanley means both Wanda and Ansom disband in the field, right? That would only make sense, at least in the case of Ansom, if Jill thought that the best she could do for him was to "free" through being disbanded.

If she hopes to rescue Ansom, she must take a different tack. Which is precisely why Charlie showed her that "Ansom" was still breathing.
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Re: Where is Jillian Going?

Postby Sixty » Tue Nov 03, 2009 7:08 pm

Whatever Jillian is gonna do, I'm betting that Charlie is again not taking a chance and plans to benefit regardless of whether she wins or not. Say Jillian attacks GK. If she wins then good, if she loses, then they send for Wanda to come over and decrypt this large newly slain force and Charlie can ambush Wanda (and not Ansom and everyone is expecting) on the dwagon express. If she attacks the dwagon express then it's the same thing: She wins then great, she loses then they send for Wanda to go to the site of the battle and she could be ambushed.

Actually, if that's true the one place she isn't going is to where the AoD and Jetstone are cause if she loses then Wanda doesn't have to make herself vulnerable by traveling on the dwagon express.

Obviously I can't prove any of this, just a thought I had that I thought might have some merit.
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Re: Where is Jillian Going?

Postby Decorus » Tue Nov 03, 2009 7:47 pm

Its more complicated then that Charles is a telecom, while he can do unlimited number of thinkgrams he needs archons to expand his corporation. Keep in mind 3 decent leveled Archons with a lower level Jillian decimated all of the dwagons that Parsons used to wipe out 40% of the siege units of the RCC. 30 Archons was enough to take GK from Parsons at its troop levels during the siege (Without the sword Parson does not give leadership bonus) Everyone seems to forget Ruthlessness was required for Parsons to have an attack, leadership and to be ruthless when he destroyed the sword he lost those abilities.
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Re: Where is Jillian Going?

Postby ftl » Tue Nov 03, 2009 8:16 pm

Decorus wrote:Its more complicated then that Charles is a telecom, while he can do unlimited number of thinkgrams he needs archons to expand his corporation. Keep in mind 3 decent leveled Archons with a lower level Jillian decimated all of the dwagons that Parsons used to wipe out 40% of the siege units of the RCC.


On the other hand, keep in mind that all these dwagons were heavily wounded. He was using the strategy of "fight 'till they're almost dead, then retreat so they don't die." The defenses of the RCC siege units did most of the damage to those dwagons, the archons just did the finishing blows.


30 Archons was enough to take GK from Parsons at its troop levels during the siege (Without the sword Parson does not give leadership bonus) Everyone seems to forget Ruthlessness was required for Parsons to have an attack, leadership and to be ruthless when he destroyed the sword he lost those abilities.


He gives a leadership bonus of 2 at http://www.erfworld.com/book-1-archive/?px=%2F040a.jpg , which is before he gets the sword. The sword, presumably, increased that, though we don't know by how much.

Parson was also a fine strategist before he became erf-shatteringly ruthless - when *not* outnumbered 25 to 1, he's still more than capable of defeating enemies. He already did clever things - like the ring trap - before the sword.

He also confirmed with Maggie (post-sword) that he could still fight - the hypothetical example with throwing a brick, as an archer. We don't know how good his combat is with a non-magical sword (like one a Twoll could fabricate) but I don't think that matters much - Parson won't be the kind of guy who will rely on winning fights personally, with or without the sword.

So no, I do not think Ruthlessness was "required" for any of those things, it just gave him bonuses. (Except for the being ruthless part. But even that's a maybe - as Maggie said, he wouldn't have done it if he hadn't, in some sense, wanted to, even without the thinkamancy...)
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