Book 2 – Text Updates 012

[BLANDCorporatio]

However, I think that warlords are likely to have more than a 50% chance of dying.

Nitpick here, but "on a long enough time scale the survival rate of anyone drops to 0"*. Care to be more specific with those odds?

*: a quote which still doesn't make rigurous sense, but you get the idea. Death and taxes.

[Lord Kasavin]

I knew the number of Warlords held by Jetstone was in the scores from a comment by Xin in the art thread. It got me thinking about Jetstone. If they had some many Warlords, why did they send only three with what was a sizable portion of their forces against GK? One convient explanation might be Ansom not wanting to offend coalition members with an overwhelming contribution, and plenty of Warlords were there with them. Or, perhaps Jetstone can "stack" nobles in city managment, accumulating greater economic bonuses for having multiple city managers. Hence, Jetstone has an incentive to have lots of nobles.

[ftl]

I knew the number of Warlords held by Jetstone was in the scores from a comment by Xin in the art thread. It got me thinking about Jetstone. If they had some many Warlords, why did they send only three with what was a sizable portion of their forces against GK? One convient explanation might be Ansom not wanting to offend coalition members with an overwhelming contribution, and plenty of Warlords were there with them. Or, perhaps Jetstone can "stack" nobles in city managment, accumulating greater economic bonuses for having multiple city managers. Hence, Jetstone has an incentive to have lots of nobles.

A reasonable explanation is just that they underestimated GK. It was supposed to be an easy campaign - they didn't risk any casters, and basically just tossed all the troops they considered expendable, they didn't feel like risking their leveled warlords. Just sort of planned to zerg GK with large numbers of troops which were fairly replaceable.

(Also, do we know that there were only three? Or did we only see three? Not doubting your words, just wondering whether we ever got an explicit number. If we didn't, then that would be a reasonable explanation - there were more, they just weren't pointed out by name.)

[multilis]

When Charlie allied with Jetstone when Ansom was about to be croaked in book 1, his turn order went *after* GKs. "He did that much for us" - (Parson)

If Wanda allies with Jillian, would her turn order go after Charlie, allowing Charlie to move up his forces? (I suspect Charlie's forces *aren't* in same hex as otherwise may be spotted, thus have to wait till their turn to get involved)

[PaintCaster]

What nobody here has so far pointet out - and I am really astounded by this, because to me it seems quite obvious:

Duncan does not have to know the "secret plan".
He does not try to psych-out Ossomer or is showing guff.
He is not brainwashed into confidently believing in Jillian.
Or is more than statuatory loyal to her - he just knows what the match outcome will be.

You guys all read the last text update?
The Guy has an Item that lets him match contestants against each other by ways of mathemancy.
And he is sure that his side will win - with perfect serenity.
Bummer eh?
Seems to me, he at least could tell us something about the two surplus Megalogwiffs

fine update again, although the slow buildup is killing me.

[splintermute]

Ossomer foresees three possible scenarios - do they all result in Tramennis' disbandment, or just scenario three? If it's just scenario three, what distinguishes it from the other two is that the capital will fall before Slately dies. Perhaps without a capital, a side automatically ends (unless the overlord is outside of the capital at the time, in which case he becomes a barbarian - which would explain Stanley's attempted flight to Faq), but with a capital, Slately can die, Tramennis would become a barbarian, and then it wouldn't matter if the city stood or fell.

This would create plausible sequences of events for past successions: Stanley killed Banhammer, Jillian became a barbarian, Stanley razed Faq; the gobwins killed Saline IV, Stanley became a barbarian, Stanley retook GK, Stanley became overlord; etc.

If they don't become heirs automatically, popping royal warlords seems needlessly wasteful - they're more expensive than regular warlords, and all they seem to do is level faster.

[theseus2x]

Speculation :

What if Duncan's perspective on things is the norm, rather than the exception?

Let's face it : Most of the characters we've seen have either been Royals themselves, or had some bias one way or the other. TV Warlords aren't supposed to care too much about Royalty. Webinar was Jetstone, and was a fanatic. So on and so forth.

What if the 'average' unit is indifferent to the concept of Royalty? They either respect their Ruler or they don't, but they don't seem to think to much about the process of their leaders being chosen.

[Pax]

Sure they'll win, Tremennis can't just disappear like that.

Unfortunately.

It is amusing to see Ossomer try his hand at subtle tricks and psycho-warfare, but doesn't this, his comical high-strung failure at it, make him too much of a stereotype? Is there no brain with that brawn?

Of course there's brain.

Strategy, tactics, knowing when and where to use a particular resource or ability. All that takes brains.

But not everyone with brains, is also a good CON ARTIST. Einstein was brilliant, but he probably would have been a failure as a used-car salesman, or a politician.

[gameboy1234]

What nobody here has so far pointet out - and I am really astounded by this, because to me it seems quite obvious:

Seems to me, he at least could tell us something about the two surplus Megalogwiffs

Yeah, I'm thinking the same. GK does not yet know about any archons, and Ducan would have seen them traveling with Faq, at least.

But, there could be another reason too. Pair up Jillian and Wanda, and his little device laughs at him. What Ducan actually expressed confidence in last text update is that Jillian would find a way to not fight. That's what I think will happen, I just can't figure out how. I can't believe that Tramennis will disband so soon, so that leaves out croaking Slately. So that leaves Wanda going rogue and hitting Hagar, or something totally different. I can't guess what it will be though.

[Menas]

What nobody here has so far pointet out - and I am really astounded by this, because to me it seems quite obvious:

Seems to me, he at least could tell us something about the two surplus Megalogwiffs

Yeah, I'm thinking the same. GK does not yet know about any archons, and Duncan would have seen them traveling with Faq, at least.

I don't think it's fair to make this assumption. If Jillian was so concerned about information falling to Wanda that she kept information from King Slately, there's no reason she (and even more so Charlier) wouldn't want to keep it from her troops as well.

I'm betting that Charlie's forces weren't only veiled from enemy troops during the flight to Jetstone, but from Faq troops as well.

I believe I know what Jillian's next move is going to be. And if it happens it will freaking rock. But I'm so paranoid that the posting of my conjecture might result in the storyline changing (because it can happen on the Order of the Stick forums), that I'm not going to post it.

[Sinrus]

From what I've seen, Balder doesn't seem to read the forums. And besides, he has said that he has planned the entire book out script and all.

[ftl]

What nobody here has so far pointet out - and I am really astounded by this, because to me it seems quite obvious:

Duncan does not have to know the "secret plan".
He does not try to psych-out Ossomer or is showing guff.
He is not brainwashed into confidently believing in Jillian.
Or is more than statuatory loyal to her - he just knows what the match outcome will be.

You guys all read the last text update?
The Guy has an Item that lets him match contestants against each other by ways of mathemancy.
And he is sure that his side will win - with perfect serenity.
Bummer eh?
Seems to me, he at least could tell us something about the two surplus Megalogwiffs

fine update again, although the slow buildup is killing me.

Nah. We also saw, in the text update, that he was pretty sure that the laurel was useless in this situation - it helped him intuit individual matchups, but he admitted those were quite useless because he was outnumbered.

We don't need to speculate about what he's thinking - the last update told us. He doesn't know Jillian's battleplan, but he trusts her judgement, and she's confident that they'll be okay, and therefore so is he. I don't think he has any other magic information besides what he's told us he's thinking.

[Lord Kasavin]

I knew the number of Warlords held by Jetstone was in the scores from a comment by Xin in the art thread. It got me thinking about Jetstone. If they had some many Warlords, why did they send only three with what was a sizable portion of their forces against GK? One convient explanation might be Ansom not wanting to offend coalition members with an overwhelming contribution, and plenty of Warlords were there with them. Or, perhaps Jetstone can "stack" nobles in city managment, accumulating greater economic bonuses for having multiple city managers. Hence, Jetstone has an incentive to have lots of nobles.

A reasonable explanation is just that they underestimated GK. It was supposed to be an easy campaign - they didn't risk any casters, and basically just tossed all the troops they considered expendable, they didn't feel like risking their leveled warlords. Just sort of planned to zerg GK with large numbers of troops which were fairly replaceable.

Casters are much rarer than warlords and add a great deal of utility to a side even when they aren't risked in combat. For example, every uncroaked belonging to GK gets a +1 combat bonus due to Wanda's presence--no matter where they and she are. Hence, it makes a lot of sense to keep out of harm's way as much as possible. Warlords, not so much. If they can't manage a city, what else can they do? The fact that GK should have been an easy victory is a reason to send MORE Warlords, albeit lower leveled ones, to allow them to level sooner.

(Also, do we know that there were only three? Or did we only see three? Not doubting your words, just wondering whether we ever got an explicit number. If we didn't, then that would be a reasonable explanation - there were more, they just weren't pointed out by name.)

Know? I guess not. However, Jetstone seemed to have only three warlords mentioned by name. Ansom, Dora, and Webinar. I suppose it is possible that Jetstone had additional Warlords of low level and note that were never mentioned by name. I think this is so unlikely that it should be ignored until evidence is given to support it.

[ftl]

Yeah, you're probably right about the first part, sending lots of warlords to help them level would make sense.

(Also, do we know that there were only three? Or did we only see three? Not doubting your words, just wondering whether we ever got an explicit number. If we didn't, then that would be a reasonable explanation - there were more, they just weren't pointed out by name.)

Know? I guess not. However, Jetstone seemed to have only three warlords mentioned by name. Ansom, Dora, and Webinar. I suppose it is possible that Jetstone had additional Warlords of low level and note that were never mentioned by name. I think this is so unlikely that it should be ignored until evidence is given to support it.

Eh, if that's the case, then I'm not convinced. Even in this battle, we've seen only a few Jetstone Warlords mentioned explicity - Ossomer and Tremennis are the ones we know by name, there've been one or two more that have actually been pointed out as Warlords, and I bet that even by the end of the battle, we'll only know a few more by name/explicit representation. We'll never get names of 48 Warlords, or even have most of them play interesting and noticeable parts. I think "there were more low-level Warlords at GK , we just never learned their names because they never did more than just lead their own little stacks of redshirts" is a reasonable explanation. Or can you think of a better one?

[Sinrus]

Well Dora wasn't exactly high level...

[PlotArmour]

And this seals it... we're very likely going to get a screwjob... because as many point out, characters like Trammenis, the dittomancer, etc, can't die for plot reasons... so there are now 2 possibilities:
a) Slately is decrypted (goes against every hint and narrative device we've seen so far, which wants us to think Wanda will win outright). I'd actually like this to happen, Wanda winning can be a good story. I just have no faith in it, especially with the Charlie secret army of archons plot.
b) Slately doesn't die... which means not only Wanda loses, but that Jetstone wins (because lets face it, Haggar & Wanda will both kill Slately, and I can't see much logic to Jillian and Charlie keeping him alive if they win either).

It's hard to see Slately escaping... not only for plausibility reasons, but because we're meant to see him set up for a fall (in which case, how is a the above possible? what moron would keep this guy alive?)

[Shoki]

i can think of why you'd leave 48 warlords at home you have haggar next to you and who knows who else within reach if you sent a overly large force.

[ftl]

A screwjob? Really?

Plot-wise, I think the most likely thing is for Wanda to lose this. I continue to think that the main factors in this will be

1) relationship-wise: Wanda being overconfident in her ability to understand Jillian. I suspect Jillian will be able to lead Wanda into some sort of trap.
2) battle-wise: there's a MYSTERY CASTER. We know how powerful casters can be. The mystery caster will be revealed to be some type of caster we haven't encountered before, and it will turn out that Charlie picked this caster specifically for this sort of battle, and it will make a big difference.

There's enough leeway in those two things to write a very good story that involves Wanda losing, or at least not winning. It can be made into a close fight, which can justify Slately not being croaked until Haggar steps in on the next turn, if at all, giving him time to name Trem as an heir.

Quit being so pessimistic!

(Though I do hope that "hidden archon army" isn't what changes around this battle. Yeah, it's possible, but it seems like such a blunt instrument - Charlie does finesse and manipulation, not zerging with archons. I could buy one or two archons that help somehow, but not the "army appears and overwhelms Wanda via numbers" option...)

[Menas]

From what I've seen, Balder doesn't seem to read the forums. And besides, he has said that he has planned the entire book out script and all.

You may be right, good sir =). I'm excited to see what happens next.

[Shoki]

A screwjob? Really?

Plot-wise, I think the most likely thing is for Wanda to lose this. I continue to think that the main factors in this will be

1) relationship-wise: Wanda being overconfident in her ability to understand Jillian. I suspect Jillian will be able to lead Wanda into some sort of trap.
2) battle-wise: there's a MYSTERY CASTER. We know how powerful casters can be. The mystery caster will be revealed to be some type of caster we haven't encountered before, and it will turn out that Charlie picked this caster specifically for this sort of battle, and it will make a big difference.

There's enough leeway in those two things to write a very good story that involves Wanda losing, or at least not winning. It can be made into a close fight, which can justify Slately not being croaked until Haggar steps in on the next turn, if at all, giving him time to name Trem as an heir.

Quit being so pessimistic!

(Though I do hope that "hidden archon army" isn't what changes around this battle. Yeah, it's possible, but it seems like such a blunt instrument - Charlie does finesse and manipulation, not zerging with archons. I could buy one or two archons that help somehow, but not the "army appears and overwhelms Wanda via numbers" option...)

it wouldn't have to be much i think wanda was given a 70% chance with one type of caster add 15 archcons to the mix and it may be 40-50%.