Book 2 – Page 19

Page by page discussion of the comic.

Re: Book 2 – Page 19

Postby Dr Pepper » Sat Feb 06, 2010 9:14 pm

Time for me to put on my own tinfoil hat. Hmm, tinfoil is awfully expensive, i don't see how you people do it. So, make that an *aluminum* foil hat.

Ok, here's my prediction for the next text update: Jillian contacts Charley by thinkagram. She tells him that she tried to turn Wanda, formerly under her command, back to Faq, but was stymied by the revelation of Wanda's fanaticism. Sbe leaves out the personal stuff, and describes Wanda's counter offer as based on sentiment. Charley, as always, is glad to get more intelligence. If there are hidden/veiled/summonable archons available, this is where Charley will say how and if they are to be used. Don might be brought in for part of this conversation. And as someone else has already speculated, they may decide to cut their losses and abandon Jetstone to its fate. But whether they bail or fight, Slately will not be in on the discussion.
Read, like there won't be a movie
Game, like the die rolls don't matter
Filk, like everyone is tone deaf anyway

10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
. . . . . . Dr Pepper
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . .4
User avatar
Dr Pepper
 
Posts: 526
Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2009 10:41 pm
Location: santa maria, ca

Re: Book 2 – Page 19

Postby Sinrus » Sat Feb 06, 2010 9:40 pm

Tinfoil is worth the expense. Aluminum foil looks the same, but it doesn't possess the same quasi-magical properties that will deflect brain-probing waves. These waves may or may not have been invented yet, but you never know.
User avatar
Sinrus
 
Posts: 824
Joined: Thu Dec 03, 2009 5:00 pm

Re: Book 2 – Page 19

Postby MonteCristo » Sat Feb 06, 2010 10:33 pm

Oberon wrote:
atteSmythe wrote:[Re: Veiled archons or other forces]Slately nor his sons knew, either, and they'd have to have been in the same hex as those veiled units for at least a turn - while expecting a force including a Foolamancer. There'd have to be a really good explanation for their inattentiveness.
100% agreement. The veiling at the battle in the FAQ pass showed that there is a chance to break the veil with any warlord unit, and there are piles of them present. There has already been a veiled raid on the forces in the field, one which captured and then killed/turned the Jetstone Chief Warlord, and there has been communications between the field and the capital since then. It would be a hard sell to expect the readers to believe that a force of veiled archons just happened to be hanging out at the Jetstone capital and remained undetected during what must be a full alert situation. A very, very hard sell.

And as i pointed out many times before, the question you have to bring up is HOW a warlord can spot a veil
As far as i see it the warlords do not have any kind of magical ability that allows them to see through a veil; the way a warlord spots a veil is by noticing something "odd"... like the notice that trees are moving, that clouds are moving rather quickly, or that their is an extra pack of bats that doesn't belong to anyone... essentially even a thousand warlord's could miss a veil if the veil is not suspicious.

Charlie has fear of a "clever" warlords being able to spot his troops, not numerous warlords
a clever warlord might think of more possibilities for veils and thus might see what more close minded warlords would overlook

If the archons entered spacerock, they would have done so on RCC's turn... they would have entered with Jillian... the warlords of jetstone would be on the look out for veil from GK, but NOT one amongst FAQ because they are allies. GK can not move on the RCC's turn so they would not keep an eye out... they would not find anything really all that suspsious about anything that happens during their turn... any warlord might think of it as nothing more than a trick of their eyes and they certainly would not become suspicious of jillians forces; cause when it comes down to it, no enemies can enter at that time with or without a veil

Dr Pepper wrote:Ok, here's my prediction for the next text update: Jillian contacts Charley by thinkagram. She tells him that she tried to turn Wanda, formerly under her command, back to Faq, but was stymied by the revelation of Wanda's fanaticism. Sbe leaves out the personal stuff, and describes Wanda's counter offer as based on sentiment. Charley, as always, is glad to get more intelligence. If there are hidden/veiled/summonable archons available, this is where Charley will say how and if they are to be used. Don might be brought in for part of this conversation. And as someone else has already speculated, they may decide to cut their losses and abandon Jetstone to its fate. But whether they bail or fight, Slately will not be in on the discussion.


I HIGHLY doubt that charlie planned for, much less was relying on wanda turning... and also Jillian has been careful to keep Don out of the loop when it comes to charlie
whatever cards charlie has planned for this battle have yet to be played
User avatar
MonteCristo
YOTD Supporter!
YOTD Supporter!
 
Posts: 374
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2009 7:48 pm

Re: Book 2 – Page 19

Postby Dancing Cthulhu » Sun Feb 07, 2010 3:54 am

MonteCristo wrote:I HIGHLY doubt that charlie planned for, much less was relying on wanda turning... and also Jillian has been careful to keep Don out of the loop when it comes to charlie
whatever cards charlie has planned for this battle have yet to be played


Agreed - whatever Charlie and Jillian's plan is, the very reason she is there and set out without telling Vinnie the true aim, it is still yet to be revealed. I think the only question is whether Jillian's offer to Wanda is off-script, or whether Charlie always knew there would be this opening play.

If it if off script it mirrors Wanda nicely, since she is kind of off script as well, at least in the way Parson/Stanley/Wanda were expecting to win this battle as quickly as possible.
And so my time with the Tardy Elves draws to a close, and I am let to ponder how the experience will... eh, I'll finish later. No need to rush.
User avatar
Dancing Cthulhu
 
Posts: 432
Joined: Fri Oct 09, 2009 3:49 am
Location: Sydney

Re: Book 2 – Page 19

Postby BLANDCorporatio » Sun Feb 07, 2010 7:24 am

Dancing Cthulhu wrote:Agreed - whatever Charlie and Jillian's plan is, the very reason she is there and set out without telling Vinnie the true aim, it is still yet to be revealed. I think the only question is whether Jillian's offer to Wanda is off-script, or whether Charlie always knew there would be this opening play.


I did not think Jillian's offer to Wanda ("turn, and we'll sack Spacerock together") was entirely honest. Sure Jillian wants Wanda at her side, but sacking Spacerock ... it just feels an odd thing for her to do. If it was, then Lord Kasavin is right and Jillian's in villain territory.

We'll see soon enough what Charlie's plan was, but as to whether Jillian's proposal to Wanda sincere, I think we shouldn't hold our breath; circumstances won't be such so as to allow that to be revealed, any time soon. So we'll be left wondering, just how far is Jillian willing to go?

PS:

Dr Pepper wrote:Time for me to put on my own tinfoil hat. Hmm, tinfoil is awfully expensive, i don't see how you people do it. So, make that an *aluminum* foil hat.


You're not supposed to buy the thing, you must first mine the tin yourself and personally manufacture the metal sheet. It's the only way to be sure.
The whole point of this is lost if you keep it a secret.
User avatar
BLANDCorporatio
Tool + YOTD Supporter!
Tool + YOTD Supporter!
 
Posts: 3446
Joined: Fri May 01, 2009 5:24 am

Re: Book 2 – Page 19

Postby Oberon » Sun Feb 07, 2010 2:56 pm

MonteCristo wrote:And as i pointed out many times before, the question you have to bring up is HOW a warlord can spot a veil
As far as i see it the warlords do not have any kind of magical ability that allows them to see through a veil; the way a warlord spots a veil is by noticing something "odd"... like the notice that trees are moving, that clouds are moving rather quickly, or that their is an extra pack of bats that doesn't belong to anyone... essentially even a thousand warlord's could miss a veil if the veil is not suspicious.

Charlie has fear of a "clever" warlords being able to spot his troops, not numerous warlords

You can point out your speculations as many times as you like, but it doesn't make them facts. Your speculation is just that: Speculation. If you go by the facts revealed in the story you're just wrong on all counts.
Vinny wrote:"We got 11 pairs of warlord eyes here, and he's got 30 or so units. So there's like 300 chances to blow the veil, if he's got one."
Vinny tells us that it's numbers that count. Both numbers of warlords, and numbers of veiled units. He doesn't say a word about how being "clever" might impact these chances, but he does clearly state that numerous warlords have better odds of spotting a veil, and they they each have a chance to spot each veiled unit. If you want me to believe otherwise, you'll have to demonstrate this within the story, not within your own idle speculations.

There has been nothing within the story which supports a theory that you have to be actively looking for veiled units in order to spot them. Such a mechanic would tend to either make veils useless, as warlords would look for them as a kind of standing order, or too potent, as you would have to issue special orders to avoid being fooled by them. Neither leads to a good balance of power, but a static chance does lead to a good balance of power.
How using capslock wins arguments:
Zeroberon wrote:So we know with 100% certainty that THIS IS HOW TRI-LINKS WORK, PERIOD END OF STORY.
Oberon
 
Posts: 1191
Joined: Wed Jun 17, 2009 7:59 am

Re: Book 2 – Page 19

Postby Oberon » Sun Feb 07, 2010 3:05 pm

BLANDCorporatio wrote:I did not think Jillian's offer to Wanda ("turn, and we'll sack Spacerock together") was entirely honest. Sure Jillian wants Wanda at her side, but sacking Spacerock ... it just feels an odd thing for her to do. If it was, then Lord Kasavin is right and Jillian's in villain territory.
Why would this feel odd? Jillian was a mercenary even before FAQ fell. She did whatever she was hired to do, and if she would have balked at orders such as sacking a city, then she would have quickly found that there was no longer anyone willing to hire her.

Her only loyalty to Jetstone is second hand through TV, and Slately has been a pompous ass to her. And TV has forced her to act against her own nature for some time now. This is a world made for conflict, Jillian prefers to solve her problems with a sword, and she isn't any more complex than "Wants to be with Wanda. And Ansom. And Jack. And with Stanley dead." I don't see anything at all odd about her offering to help sack Spacerock.

BLANDCorporatio wrote:
Dr Pepper wrote:Time for me to put on my own tinfoil hat. Hmm, tinfoil is awfully expensive, i don't see how you people do it. So, make that an *aluminum* foil hat.

You're not supposed to buy the thing, you must first mine the tin yourself and personally manufacture the metal sheet. It's the only way to be sure.
Naturally. IF you buy it you'll be getting one which actually amplifies the mind control rays, rather than protecting against them. Best to manufacture your own mining and smelting gear, too. Otherwise the tools you buy will be designed to allow weaknesses to be built into the hat.
How using capslock wins arguments:
Zeroberon wrote:So we know with 100% certainty that THIS IS HOW TRI-LINKS WORK, PERIOD END OF STORY.
Oberon
 
Posts: 1191
Joined: Wed Jun 17, 2009 7:59 am

Re: Book 2 – Page 19

Postby theseus2x » Sun Feb 07, 2010 3:55 pm

You notice how neither Wanda or Jillian can actually SAY they love the other?
User avatar
theseus2x
 
Posts: 439
Joined: Thu Nov 12, 2009 11:01 pm

Re: Book 2 – Page 19

Postby Dancing Cthulhu » Mon Feb 08, 2010 9:20 am

BLANDCorporatio wrote:I did not think Jillian's offer to Wanda ("turn, and we'll sack Spacerock together") was entirely honest. Sure Jillian wants Wanda at her side, but sacking Spacerock ... it just feels an odd thing for her to do. If it was, then Lord Kasavin is right and Jillian's in villain territory.


Yeah, I don't think the part about sacking Spacerock was necessarily genuine on Jillian's part. I could see it as kind of an extra "incentive" to get Wanda to turn, and then once she was safely under Jillian's control Jillian breaks the news Spacerock they won't be sacking Jetstone.
And so my time with the Tardy Elves draws to a close, and I am let to ponder how the experience will... eh, I'll finish later. No need to rush.
User avatar
Dancing Cthulhu
 
Posts: 432
Joined: Fri Oct 09, 2009 3:49 am
Location: Sydney

Re: Book 2 – Page 19

Postby Ninjaguineapig » Mon Feb 08, 2010 9:51 am

Oberon wrote:
BLANDCorporatio wrote:
Dr Pepper wrote:Time for me to put on my own tinfoil hat. Hmm, tinfoil is awfully expensive, i don't see how you people do it. So, make that an *aluminum* foil hat.

You're not supposed to buy the thing, you must first mine the tin yourself and personally manufacture the metal sheet. It's the only way to be sure.
Naturally. IF you buy it you'll be getting one which actually amplifies the mind control rays, rather than protecting against them. Best to manufacture your own mining and smelting gear, too. Otherwise the tools you buy will be designed to allow weaknesses to be built into the hat.


How are you supposed to manufacture mining gear without having metal already? The only was to really be safe is to rip the lead (lead has more deflective power than tinfoil. I reached this conclusion after testing both metals against the probe waves with the machinery I designed and built with stone and wood tools) out of the ground with your bare hands (to avoid bringing your hat-to-be into contact with anything made by...them), then building a bonfire to enough heat to melt the lead, and then shape it with a stone hammer you made yourself. Repeat this process about a hundred times and cover your entire cave (don't trust a house unless you built it yourself. They have eyes.) with the sheeting.
Ninjaguineapig
 
Posts: 193
Joined: Sat Dec 19, 2009 1:02 pm

Re: Book 2 – Page 19

Postby SteveMB » Mon Feb 08, 2010 11:09 am

Oberon wrote:
MonteCristo wrote:Charlie has fear of a "clever" warlords being able to spot his troops, not numerous warlords


Vinny wrote:"We got 11 pairs of warlord eyes here, and he's got 30 or so units. So there's like 300 chances to blow the veil, if he's got one."

Vinny tells us that it's numbers that count. Both numbers of warlords, and numbers of veiled units. He doesn't say a word about how being "clever" might impact these chances, but he does clearly state that numerous warlords have better odds of spotting a veil, and they they each have a chance to spot each veiled unit.


All warlords have some chance of spotting a veil, but not all warlords necessarily have the same chance to do so. It's reasonable that higher-level warlords have a greater chance, for instance.
Is this a real holy war, or just a bunch of deluded boopholes croaking each other?
User avatar
SteveMB
Tool + YOTD + Erfabet Supporter!
Tool + YOTD + Erfabet Supporter!
 
Posts: 560
Joined: Wed Apr 29, 2009 9:12 pm
Location: Northern Virginia

Re: Book 2 – Page 19

Postby Oberon » Mon Feb 08, 2010 11:15 am

SteveMB wrote:
Vinny wrote:"We got 11 pairs of warlord eyes here, and he's got 30 or so units. So there's like 300 chances to blow the veil, if he's got one."

All warlords have some chance of spotting a veil, but not all warlords necessarily have the same chance to do so. It's reasonable that higher-level warlords have a greater chance, for instance.
Vinny's calculation appeared to be a very straightforward Warlords X Veiled Enemy Units = Chance to Spot. He can be forgiven for not saying 330 chances since he was estimating Stanley's unit count. Where do you get the indication that different level warlords have different chances to spot veiled units?
How using capslock wins arguments:
Zeroberon wrote:So we know with 100% certainty that THIS IS HOW TRI-LINKS WORK, PERIOD END OF STORY.
Oberon
 
Posts: 1191
Joined: Wed Jun 17, 2009 7:59 am

Re: Book 2 – Page 19

Postby MonteCristo » Mon Feb 08, 2010 1:15 pm

Oberon wrote:
MonteCristo wrote:And as i pointed out many times before, the question you have to bring up is HOW a warlord can spot a veil
As far as i see it the warlords do not have any kind of magical ability that allows them to see through a veil; the way a warlord spots a veil is by noticing something "odd"... like the notice that trees are moving, that clouds are moving rather quickly, or that their is an extra pack of bats that doesn't belong to anyone... essentially even a thousand warlord's could miss a veil if the veil is not suspicious.

Charlie has fear of a "clever" warlords being able to spot his troops, not numerous warlords

You can point out your speculations as many times as you like, but it doesn't make them facts. Your speculation is just that: Speculation. If you go by the facts revealed in the story you're just wrong on all counts.
Vinny wrote:"We got 11 pairs of warlord eyes here, and he's got 30 or so units. So there's like 300 chances to blow the veil, if he's got one."
Vinny tells us that it's numbers that count. Both numbers of warlords, and numbers of veiled units. He doesn't say a word about how being "clever" might impact these chances, but he does clearly state that numerous warlords have better odds of spotting a veil, and they they each have a chance to spot each veiled unit. If you want me to believe otherwise, you'll have to demonstrate this within the story, not within your own idle speculations.

There has been nothing within the story which supports a theory that you have to be actively looking for veiled units in order to spot them. Such a mechanic would tend to either make veils useless, as warlords would look for them as a kind of standing order, or too potent, as you would have to issue special orders to avoid being fooled by them. Neither leads to a good balance of power, but a static chance does lead to a good balance of power.


There's more to support it than you seem to think
First off Vinny's statement can go both ways... by having 11 warlord's out there, there is a better chance of at least one of them noticing something odd moving through the area (the '300' number itself could have easily just been a turn of phase like saying "100 to 1"; its not an exactly estimate of the chances, just a way for saying the chances are REALLY low... hell vinnie couldn't really give an estimate since he can't know how many dwagons stanley has)... furtharmore he sounded like it partially relies on stanley, saying "he has a chance to blow the viel" as oppose to "we have a chance to see the veil"... cause when it comes down to it, the foolamancer is the one who gets to pick the veil, and the less clever he veil the easier it is to notice it.

second of all, When they thought it was just stanley and the foolamacer, two small units veiled, ceaser thought it would be practically impossible to find them... but once they knew they were looking for something large, he knew their was a better chance... if warlords can just magically see through veils, then why should size matter?

third, how did Jillian spot the veiled dwagon? that's right, by noticing something odd... in fact, instead of right away looking all over the place they started thinking "what could the dwagon be veiled as"... if they can just magically see veils, then why should it really matter all that much? just keep looking around and you'll see through the veil anyway.

Forth, Jack's displacement at the battle of jetstone... Jetstone has over 40 warlords, 2 of which were the princes, and yet NONE of them were able to tell that the dwagons that flew overhead towards the casters were fakes... if warlords just have a magical chance to see through veils, then how is it possible that none of them saw it... the only way they were able to tell was because they attacked while there was nothing to hit... and no one was able to see the invisible units hovering around the princes either; which is why they needed to launch a huge volley over where they were suspected of being to get them

Fifth, the "flash" that the archons performed seems to be a form of foolamancy... but when cast no unit is able to see into the next hex; it is impossible... why do the 40+ warlords not hvae a chance to just see through the veil?

sixth, Charli had fear of 3 things that could see his veiled troops... foolamancers and archons who we know can see veils... and a clever warlord, of which we know he was talking about parson... he had more fear of someone like parson seeing his veiled troops, than all of jetstones 40+warlord's

Simply tell me this... can you name ONE instance where warlords just "saw" through a veil like the archons were able to see through bogroll when he was veiled as parson? name a time when they didn't need to be clever or actually try touching the veil to tell it was a viel... where all they needed was their eyes and random roll of the dice (so to speak) to see a veil...
No thus far their has never been a case where warlords could just see through veils... in every case they have been fooled or managed to figure out the veil, it was all based on their own abilities to think; they either had the brains to notice something was amiss, or were completely fooled by the veil... when it comes down to it, i think it is YOUR stance that seems to lack actual in comic support
User avatar
MonteCristo
YOTD Supporter!
YOTD Supporter!
 
Posts: 374
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2009 7:48 pm

Re: Book 2 – Page 19

Postby theseus2x » Mon Feb 08, 2010 2:05 pm

Dancing Cthulhu wrote:
BLANDCorporatio wrote:I did not think Jillian's offer to Wanda ("turn, and we'll sack Spacerock together") was entirely honest. Sure Jillian wants Wanda at her side, but sacking Spacerock ... it just feels an odd thing for her to do. If it was, then Lord Kasavin is right and Jillian's in villain territory.


Yeah, I don't think the part about sacking Spacerock was necessarily genuine on Jillian's part. I could see it as kind of an extra "incentive" to get Wanda to turn, and then once she was safely under Jillian's control Jillian breaks the news Spacerock they won't be sacking Jetstone.


I'm sorry - how would sacking Jetstone make Jillian a villain? :twisted:

Anyway - I think Jillian was being honest about it. Wanda wants to smash Spacerock. Jillian has wanted to smash Spacerock since they humiliated her. Besides, she knows that none of her "allies" (Slately, Charlie, Don King) would allow Wanda to live with those pliers.
User avatar
theseus2x
 
Posts: 439
Joined: Thu Nov 12, 2009 11:01 pm

Re: Book 2 – Page 19

Postby Oberon » Mon Feb 08, 2010 2:40 pm

MonteCristo wrote:No thus far their has never been a case where warlords could just see through veils... in every case they have been fooled or managed to figure out the veil, it was all based on their own abilities to think; they either had the brains to notice something was amiss, or were completely fooled by the veil... when it comes down to it, i think it is YOUR stance that seems to lack actual in comic support
You can not prove a negative, and all the authors need to do to support the raid veil working is to say (via showing it working in the comic) that it did. So you still have nothing within the story to back your position.

We can hopefully rely upon the authors to feed the readers correct information, and Vinny has been shown to be an insightful character. You can try to add a lot of fluff that comes from your own imagination, invent details such as how "clever" the Warlords are impacting their odds to spot a veil, or cite things which have never been shown such as "the less clever he veil the easier it is to notice it", or even refuse to agree that 11 x "30 or so" = "like 300", which was a very clear case of X * Y = Z. But for me Vinny summed it up very clearly: Warlords X Veiled Units = Chance to "blow the veil." This is the one clear statement of fact from within the story that we have to go on, and I prefer story fact over your fictions every day.

If Vinny was wrong, one or more of the 10 other Warlords he was speaking to would have corrected him. He was, after all, discussing their chances for success in an anticipated upcoming battle. This isn't the sort of situation where other people, especially superiors such as Caesar, would let a blatant factual error go unremarked. Take this at face value, and stop trying to invent things that haven't been shown in order to try to arrive at the same conclusion. It's completely unnecessary.
How using capslock wins arguments:
Zeroberon wrote:So we know with 100% certainty that THIS IS HOW TRI-LINKS WORK, PERIOD END OF STORY.
Oberon
 
Posts: 1191
Joined: Wed Jun 17, 2009 7:59 am

Re: Book 2 – Page 19

Postby MonteCristo » Mon Feb 08, 2010 3:39 pm

Oberon wrote:
MonteCristo wrote:No thus far their has never been a case where warlords could just see through veils... in every case they have been fooled or managed to figure out the veil, it was all based on their own abilities to think; they either had the brains to notice something was amiss, or were completely fooled by the veil... when it comes down to it, i think it is YOUR stance that seems to lack actual in comic support
You can not prove a negative, and all the authors need to do to support the raid veil working is to say (via showing it working in the comic) that it did. So you still have nothing within the story to back your position.

We can hopefully rely upon the authors to feed the readers correct information, and Vinny has been shown to be an insightful character. You can try to add a lot of fluff that comes from your own imagination, invent details such as how "clever" the Warlords are impacting their odds to spot a veil, or cite things which have never been shown such as "the less clever he veil the easier it is to notice it", or even refuse to agree that 11 x "30 or so" = "like 300", which was a very clear case of X * Y = Z. But for me Vinny summed it up very clearly: Warlords X Veiled Units = Chance to "blow the veil." This is the one clear statement of fact from within the story that we have to go on, and I prefer story fact over your fictions every day.

If Vinny was wrong, one or more of the 10 other Warlords he was speaking to would have corrected him. He was, after all, discussing their chances for success in an anticipated upcoming battle. This isn't the sort of situation where other people, especially superiors such as Caesar, would let a blatant factual error go unremarked. Take this at face value, and stop trying to invent things that haven't been shown in order to try to arrive at the same conclusion. It's completely unnecessary.


49*10=490... if what vinnie was saying was an actually calculation to the chances of seeing a veil, that would have meant that there was 490 chances for the displacement to fail... even higher if you include those riding the mounts... 11 warlords can spot 30 units but nearly 50 can't spot 10 units? please... that's MUCH higher than what we saw at faq, and if the author explains this as "it just did" then that is a CLEAR case of a plot hole at work... When it comes down to it, we have never been told that was an actual calculation as opposed to a turn of phase so that is just YOUR PERSONAL INTERPRETATION of the statement; as such this does not give you any real support for your argument... similar can be said about my interpretation, but luckily have have 5 other points to help support my argument, and add more weight, while you have nothing else

What the hell kind of calculation is 300 chances? That sounds kind of subjective... If vinnie was giving us a calculation on their chances to see the veil, would he not give us a percentage? hell if that really was a calculation, based on what vinnie was saying you could say that there is a 10% chance of a warlord seeing a veil... and you expect me to except that 49 warlords rolling 1d10's were not able to roll one single 10? that's practically impossible; it defies logic.

And the only way one of the warlord's would correct him is if they excepted what he was saying as an actually calculation (not to mention that 300 actually was inaccurate btw), as opposed to just a turn of phase to say the chances for Stanely getting through with a veil was really really low... at which point they would be silent as they would not disagree that the chances were very low


You disregard like half of my points without fully addressing them...
Why does Charlie show fear for his veil from a clever warlord, but not from a high number of warlords? Shouldn't jestones many warlords spotting his archons worry him more if it was matter of caluclations?
Why were the 49 warlords unable to see through the flash, despite having a each one having 10% chance to see through a veil?
Why were the 49 warlords unable to see the displacement despite having a each one having a 10% chance to see through the veil?
Why did Ceaser think it was not possible for 11 warlord's to spot Stenly veiled, but was completely gun ho the moment he found out it was a dwagon they were looking for?

Can you answer any of these question that doesn't result in a MASSIVE plot hole?
Frankly, i think any answer that relies upon a "plot hole" is very insulting to the writer... frankly i would assume alternative answers and assume better of the writer and that he thought this stuff out... funny how you would say that Rob would gives us reliable information but at the same time he would make use of plot devices and leave huge gapping plot holes.


Hell to add another point, Ceaser got pissed that vinnie did not tell him about the foolamancer... why? if warlord's just have a natural chance to see through veils why should it matter... it would matter if he has to tell his warlords to keep an eye's sharp for anything odd... they might miss a veil if they are just waiting for dwagons and not expecting something like a large flock of birds; they might overlook a large flock of birds if they did not think Stanely had a powerful foolamancer with him... though if they can just magically see veils, then it doesn't matter if they are expecting something odd or not because they would see it anyway
User avatar
MonteCristo
YOTD Supporter!
YOTD Supporter!
 
Posts: 374
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2009 7:48 pm

Re: Book 2 – Page 19

Postby Oberon » Mon Feb 08, 2010 3:59 pm

MonteCristo wrote:49*10=490... if what vinnie was saying was an actually calculation to the chances of seeing a veil, that would have meant that there was 490 chances for the displacement to fail.
And again, a chance is a chance. You can cry about how unlikely it is that this happened, but we saw it happen, so then clearly the odds might have been low, but low odds is still a chance, right?
MonteCristo wrote:that's MUCH higher than what we saw at faq, and if the author explains this as "it just did" then that is a CLEAR case of a plot hole at work.
You can interpret it this way if you like. It's up to the authors to work to achieve a willing suspension of disbelief. It either worked for you, or it did not. But plot tends to trump odds in a great many stories.
MonteCristo wrote:When it comes down to it, we have never been told that was an actual calculation as opposed to a turn of phase [...]
Oh, please. How hard is it to accept that 30 x 11 is about 300? It's elementary school math, and this isn't "MY PERSONAL INTERPRETATION", rather your personal interpretation is what has zero basis. For you to be right, Vinny would have had to have made stuff up out of whole cloth and passed it off to 10 other Warlords as their odds of spotting Stanley if he was veiled. That's your personal interpretation, but there is nothing in the story which supports you, and all I'm relying on for support are Vinny's words, read without a tin hat on or while standing in an epileptic forest.
MonteCristo wrote:What the hell kind of calculation is 300 chances? That sounds kind of subjective.
That word you used. I do not think it means what you think it means. Stating that 11 x 30 is "about 300" is not a subjective statement. It is an objective statement of fact, despite his rough rounding of 330 to 300.
MonteCristo wrote:If vinnie was giving us a calculation on their chances to see the veil, would he not give us a percentage?
Why don't you argue with the authors? This is how they chose to have Vinny state their chances. I just read it and accepted it at face value. Why can't you?
MonteCristo wrote:hell if that really was a calculation, based on what vinnie was saying you could say that there is a 10% chance of a warlord seeing a veil.
Now you're just making more stuff up. Vinny never said that each Warlord had a 10% chance. He said that they had 300 chances, but left the probability of each chance unstated. When you decide to read into things like this, that's how you manage to become so confused.
How using capslock wins arguments:
Zeroberon wrote:So we know with 100% certainty that THIS IS HOW TRI-LINKS WORK, PERIOD END OF STORY.
Oberon
 
Posts: 1191
Joined: Wed Jun 17, 2009 7:59 am

Re: Book 2 – Page 19

Postby Wender » Mon Feb 08, 2010 5:40 pm

Oberon wrote:We can hopefully rely upon the authors to feed the readers correct information, and Vinny has been shown to be an insightful character. You can try to add a lot of fluff that comes from your own imagination, invent details such as how "clever" the Warlords are impacting their odds to spot a veil, or cite things which have never been shown such as "the less clever he veil the easier it is to notice it", or even refuse to agree that 11 x "30 or so" = "like 300", which was a very clear case of X * Y = Z. But for me Vinny summed it up very clearly: Warlords X Veiled Units = Chance to "blow the veil." This is the one clear statement of fact from within the story that we have to go on, and I prefer story fact over your fictions every day.


First, a necessary caveat: Jack has been established as one of the best Foolamancers there is. So he's going to skew the odds somewhat.

That said, there are a couple of tips in the story itself that establish that Transylvito's (not just Vinny's) estimation of Foolamancy is naive.

1) Caesar's outright disbelief that Jack could have hidden Faq from Translyvito warlords flying overhead, and;

2) In the same scene as Vinny's calculation, Jack pulls off a bit of Foolamancy that completely stumps every warlord in the hex until someone actually looks explicitly at the "cloud of bats" to see whose "they" are; on a meta level, the artwork explained the success of the veil by fooling the entire forum into following the dramatic escape narrative instead of noticing the bats tacking off to the side, even though they were visible in the panels. Jillian, a high level warlord by any measure, stabbed an illusory dragon without noticing that she had! That the dwagon was fake was only discovered once Jack no longer had any need to make it seem real up close.

Jillian clarifies that Jack had the aid of a Predictamancer in deciding when and where and how to veil Faq, but if was simply a matter of odds, would Faq have still been so successful for so long (longer than the ~200 turns Jillian has been alive) that Transylvito didn't even believe the kingdom existed at all? That nobody believed it existed?

Based on those observations, I think it's reasonable to conclude that Vinny's (and Caesar's unspoken) calculations assume that the warlords are actually looking at the effects of the Foolamancy, and that the mechanics apply once a warlord is specifically looking at an illusion. (This would be similar to the way that D&D handled illusions for decades.) Jack's genius, then, lies precisely where he said it did: In seeing things as they are, and as they are seen, and exploiting the difference. That strategy wouldn't work if people couldn't be misled by seeing what they expected to, and the canon is quite clear on the point that Jack is wildly successful.

See also the high level Ansom failing to see the veil on Bogroll because he expected to see Parson and he didn't expect to be attacked at a parley. The more dispassionate Archon nearby did notice, because she didn't expect anything. Charlie's major forte is intelligence gathering, and the Archons are clearly disciplined to always try to see things as they are. Charlie's strategy is not that dissimilar to Jack's, actually, except that Charlie uses the difference to make money and gain influence.
Wender
 
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Jun 16, 2009 9:54 pm

Re: Book 2 – Page 19

Postby opal » Mon Feb 08, 2010 6:20 pm

Guys, What Jack cast to capture Ossomer wasn't a Veil, it was a Displacement. Veils change the appearance things, Displacements make you appear to be somewhere else. So this fight is comparing apples to oranges.

When a warlord 'blows' a veil they don't see what's really there, they notice what they are seeing isn't right. So blowing a veil isn't about a chance of seeing the spell, its about noticing something is odd.

I think all Warlords are smart (by Erfworld standards), and that is why they are such powerful units. However not all Warlords are equally smart.

(P.S. Oberon your arguements are starting to read as personal attacks to me, I agree with you but your not presenting your position well.)
opal
 
Posts: 54
Joined: Fri Jul 17, 2009 9:58 pm

Re: Book 2 – Page 19

Postby MonteCristo » Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:40 pm

Oberon wrote:
MonteCristo wrote:49*10=490... if what vinnie was saying was an actually calculation to the chances of seeing a veil, that would have meant that there was 490 chances for the displacement to fail.
And again, a chance is a chance. You can cry about how unlikely it is that this happened, but we saw it happen, so then clearly the odds might have been low, but low odds is still a chance, right?

how about a new question to add to the question you have not bothered to answer...
Why would wanda and Jack try it?
If the chances of success were so abysmal, there is no way Wanda, Jack or Ansom would be stupid enough to even consider trying it.
Ansom knows roughly how many warlord's jetstone has, and Jack knows all there is about foolamancy... there is no way they would allow the plan to go without questioning wanda... and Wanda would not fight their logic... it's completely out of character and another plot hole in your argument

If we see it happen, but can not explain how it LOGICALLY could happen within the realm of erfworld physics, then that is a plot hole

You can interpret it this way if you like. It's up to the authors to work to achieve a willing suspension of disbelief. It either worked for you, or it did not. But plot tends to trump odds in a great many stories.

Funny how you seem to rely so much on "logic" when trying to explain Vinnie's 300 comment, and yet willing to throw it out the window the moment it no longer works in you're favor

Oh, please. How hard is it to accept that 30 x 11 is about 300? It's elementary school math, and this isn't "MY PERSONAL INTERPRETATION", rather your personal interpretation is what has zero basis. For you to be right, Vinny would have had to have made stuff up out of whole cloth and passed it off to 10 other Warlords as their odds of spotting Stanley if he was veiled. That's your personal interpretation, but there is nothing in the story which supports you, and all I'm relying on for support are Vinny's words, read without a tin hat on or while standing in an epileptic forest.

30*11=330... but anyway
And what i am saying is that vinnie's number had no real meaning to it... it was not an actual calculation but just a way of saying "the chances are really low"... kinda like saying the chances are "million to 1"; no one did the math to get that number, they just chose a high number... and no, not everyone uses numbers like "million" or a "thousand" when making such statements... it is a logical and valid argument

Let me ask you another thing though... since when has erfworld mechanics been as simple as X*Y=N?
Two of the biggest factors that come up when during most any confrontation we have seen have been "levels" and "multipliers"
Even if warlord's could magically just see through veils, don't you think levels and multipliers would be a factor? do you really think the the levels of the warlords and the foolamancer mean nothing? do you really think Overlord bonus's, artficats bonus's, and cheief warlord bonus's would mean nothing? Are you really telling me that, hypothetically, a masterclass foolamancer of the highest level while being supported by his ruler, chiefwarlord, and 5 artifact bonus's can be out done by a 20 level 1 warlords, just as easily as 20 lv 10 warlords among which include a ruler and chiefwarlord and numerous other bonus's?

Why don't you argue with the authors? This is how they chose to have Vinny state their chances. I just read it and accepted it at face value. Why can't you?

Because you are the one who THINKS he knows what they know... if you have everything so well figured out, then you should be able to tell... though thus far you have left many of my questions unaddressed... and i see it less like you are taking things as "face value" and more like you are reading to much into that number; adding more meaning than there is...

and i do wonder when you will try to answer all the questions i asked before...

wender wrote:1) Caesar's outright disbelief that Jack could have hidden Faq from Translyvito warlords flying overhead, and;

yes a nice valid question for our friend oberon...
How did FAQ managed to remain hidden. If there was even a slim chance for the warlord's to see through a veil, then TV's warlord's would have noticed FAQ eventually... rule of percentage says the warlor'ds would get lucky and just heppen to notice it...
but ofcourse, if you have to be smart enough to notice that something is amiss, then it would be easily overlooked... no one expects for a city to be thee, and would never question a mountain being out there

opal wrote:(P.S. Oberon your arguements are starting to read as personal attacks to me, I agree with you but your not presenting your position well.)

Actually
When a warlord 'blows' a veil they don't see what's really there, they notice what they are seeing isn't right. So blowing a veil isn't about a chance of seeing the spell, its about noticing something is odd.

Is exactly my stance...
User avatar
MonteCristo
YOTD Supporter!
YOTD Supporter!
 
Posts: 374
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2009 7:48 pm

PreviousNext

Return to Reactions

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Shai_hulud and 20 guests