by Hiai » Thu Feb 11, 2010 11:15 pm
As regards a Charlie invasion of GK:
I've brought up this possibilty before in previous threads, responding to a "where are the veiled Archons?" question. Passing events have made this possibility a stronger one in my mind.
First, let's take turn order: Charlescomm's turn naturally goes before everyone else, including GK. GK is now on it's turn, having not been attacked by Charlescomm, so Charlescomm has already given up their chance at attack on their own turn. However, both the RCCII, which Faq is a part of right now, and Faq's natural turn both fall after GK's. Therefore, if Jillian can convince Wanda to end GK's turn before attacking her, she will still have a turn to do quite a bit in response; INCLUDING allying with Charlescomm, thus giving Charlescomm's forces a chance at attack no matter where they are...like possibly having spent their move on their turn getting into position around GK, then using the new, allied turn to attack. Jillian getting Wanda to turn would just be icing on the cake; all she really has to do is stand aside and let Wanda use her turn taking out Jetstone's tower, and then have Wanda end turn to parlay about the POSSIBLE turning to Faq. So long as Wanda does not obliterate Jillian's forces on GK's turn, Charlie and Jillian have carte blanche to attack GK.
Second, let's talk about GK's vulnerability:
Remember that Charlie has been frustrated in his attempts to gain much in the way of intel like he's used to having. His Archon scouts have been detected by the decrypted Archons, and GK's forces have obviously been on high alert, so let's think about what Charlie knows right now about GK. We're talking about Charlie's PERCEPTION of how vulnerable GK is, and thus the likelihood of him attacking, NOT GK's real strengths and weaknesses and whether or not any Charlescomm attack would be successful.
1. Charlie guessed, and had confirmed by Parson, that the volcano that blew the RCCI away was the result of a powerful trimancer link. Charlie can see very clearly that 2 of GK's most powerful casters are with Wanda's forces at Jetstone, and therefore such a link is no longer possible. He knows the capabilities and limitations of thinkamancy in extreme intimate detail, so his guesses about whether a two-caster linkup could now achieve the same effect, regardless of the state of the volcano right now, are very likely to be spot on. If he thinks that Sidemore and Maggie couldn't do it without a third, he's most likely quite correct.
2. Wanda has a very sizable force of dwagons with her. Before the last battle with the RCCI, Charlie would have had an exact count of how many dwagons Stanley possessed. Even given the time in between and the likelihood of Stanley popping more dwagons, it would be quite reasonable for Charlie to assume that Stanley has very few dwagons with him at this time. He has no way of knowing that Stanley has been taming wild dwagons, because he can't get anywhere near enough to get an accurate count, so it's extremely likely that he would vastly underestimate the size of GK's current airforce DEFENSE, after seeing the strength of Wanda's OFFENSIVE air force.
3. Charlie may not be able to get near GK, but it's likely he can at least scout some of Stanley's newly conquered citites, enough to see what sort of units are being popped, and in what numbers. We know that Stanley has Hobgobwins popping, and decrypted forces for defense in the meantime (which, by the way, would then turn on Stanley's forces if by chance Wanda DID turn to Faq; a nice if not entirely necessary bonus). But not dwagons. It would be quite reasonable for Charlie to assume that Stanley is busily popping dwagons at GK's capitol, and Hobgobwins in outlying areas. It makes good sense to do so, and given the assumption that Stanley is "low on dwagons" right now, that's what he SHOULD be doing.
4. Charlie has no way of knowing that GK's treasury is bursting with schmuckers due to Sidemore's gem find. It would be reasonable to assume that most of the treasury was depleted just by rebuilding the fortress itself, so imagining Stanley doing what he actually IS doing, speeding unit popping so that he builds his forces exponentially, is unlikely for any reasonable person to guess. Given the length of time it would normally take a super-heavy unit like a dwagon to pop, without the influx of extra schmuckers, it would seem as if Stanley can't have more than a very few dwagons left with him, since most are on location with Wanda. Same goes for Hobgobwins: if Stanley is popping dwagons, he HASN't been popping Hobgobwins.
So, logically, Stanley is sitting in GK nearly undefended, with a hugely depleted airforce, which is Charlie's strong point, two casters, neither of whom would normally be the "battle" type of caster, especially if you don't go near Sidemore's purview at ground level, few, if any, natural allies (no gobwins at ALL!!), and one brilliant but underutilized warlord that Charlie covets for his own. Throw the Arkenhammer in to sweeten the pot, and GK looks like a pretty tempting target for someone who KNEW a few turns ago that only 14 Archons would be enough to take the entire garrison. Throw in the fact that most of the Archons he had in this particular area of the world are sorta sitting around unemployed, and Jillian keeping Wanda's forces busy over at Jetstone (whether turning her or fighting her, Wanda is not coming to GK's rescue any time soon); GK looks like a ripe plum for Charlie's picking.
And that completely leaves out the very real possibility that Charlie is involved in some chicanery with the gobwins and the possible use of them to attack from below. All in all, from Charlie's knowledge, the only thing that would cause him to hesitate in the least is his new-found respect for Parson's military genius. But that is a two-edged sword, because as much as it might make him hesitate, it also tempts him, because he WANTS Parson for his side.
We look at GK and think how much stronger it was than before, and that it's only getting more and more impregnable, especially with Parson there. Charlie (and possibly Jillian) thinks of GK and thinks that now is the time, possibly the ONLY time, to attack. It's obvious that as time wears on, GK is only getting stronger. So that hint of desperation is also a driving force...even if GK is a tough nut to crack, it may be the one and only time it's at all vulnerable, and that's a gamble worth taking. I look forward to Charlie getting badly outclassed yet again by Parson, and coming away with far more than a bloody nose this time. And his resulting fury.
Last edited by
Hiai on Fri Feb 12, 2010 12:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
), it doesn't sound like even if Jillian went all out against 'em, they'd be able to stop GK (barring some kind of lucky shot that takes out Wanda). So maybe getting on Wanda's good side is the only way for Jillian to get close enough to Stanley to off him, or something like that? I really have no idea how this is gonna work 
