Book 2 – Page 25

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Re: Book 2 – Page 25

Postby ftl » Tue Mar 23, 2010 7:12 pm

Reclaimer wrote:Don't know about that one. Parson's bracer seems to take completely unknown variables into account during its calculations,


Not necessarily. If it took unknown variables into account, then Parson finding out about those variables wouldn't change the result. However, we know for a fact that the bracer started giving different numbers when Parson found out about the FAQ force, and would give different results depending on what caster would be there.

Charlie showed Parson that it could answer arbitrarily complicated questions. That does not mean that it has access to all information.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 25

Postby gazes_also » Tue Mar 23, 2010 7:58 pm

Reclaimer wrote:
gazes_also wrote:I think Charlie's NDA are completely (magically) binding - she can't say more than no comment even if she wanted to.


I think it's mundanely binding - if she violates the NDA, she breaks the contract, and Charlie is free to do whatever the hell he wants.

gazes_also wrote:He doesn't want Parson to know about his involvement because as long as he is an unknown variable Parson's calculations of battle strategy will be inaccurate.


Don't know about that one. Parson's bracer seems to take completely unknown variables into account during its calculations, an ability Charlie showed him completely by accident (And thus is aware of). I will admit, though, that I have no idea why he wants to remain in the shadows when a play like this could go a long way toward mending fences with Jetstone.


If there is no additional binding element to an agreement with Charlie then what would stop Parson from lying to him about the results of one of his calculations? Charlie has a way of keeping people to they deals that they are not even conscious of.

Parson's bracer gives results in ranges of probability, at times quite broad. The bracer knows the stats and capabilities of all forces potentially in play. It is therefore likely taking into account possible unknowns and weighting their probability. Charlie's involvement would be a high impact variable but a low probability one, therefore a small factor overall. The range becomes narrower the more known variables you can account for or exclude, so effectively Charlie is skewing Parson's curve, and what would be a calculated 1% probability is a certainty.

The calculation about whether getting answer to what happened to the Archons was worth giving up the rest of the calculations is not that complicated. There are only 3 questions to consider and the main variables involved are known - Charlie and Wanda.
1. What is the probability that the answer to this one question will turn out to be critically (life or death) important?
2. what is the probability that the answer to any other calculation will be critically important?
3. What is the probability that Charlie will find out the answer by other means before not knowing becomes critically important?

if the answer to 1 and 2 is 20%, and 80%
and the answer to 3 is 80%
then there is a 20% of 20% chance that it is worth giving up the rest of his calculations to know the answer - or 4% which was Parson's answer
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Re: Book 2 – Page 25

Postby Reclaimer » Tue Mar 23, 2010 8:06 pm

Those are all excellent points.

BTW, your Mathamancy is impeccable.

Edit:

badninja wrote:
Reclaimer wrote:The best countermeasure would be to croak Wanda and lock the 'Pliers up in a vault that even Danny Ocean can't get into. And we do know he wants to do at least one of those things for sure.


I am sorry this does not exist we all know that Danny would take it down on principal. Never disrespect Mr. Ocean he knows everyone you know and they like him better.


Just saw this and laughed for like ten minutes.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 25

Postby ftl » Tue Mar 23, 2010 8:39 pm

gazes_also wrote:If there is no additional binding element to an agreement with Charlie then what would stop Parson from lying to him about the results of one of his calculations? Charlie has a way of keeping people to they deals that they are not even conscious of.


I'm not sure we have to assume that it's Charlie specifically. It seemed to me to parallel the way deals in many IRL games work - they're binding, like in Settlers or something. You just can't make an agreement to do one thing, and then do something else; it's against the rules, usually. That's how I've assumed erfworld works - there's natural thinkamancy that happens to make deals binding, or something. (That's definitely an assumption and not a conclusion though, I don't think we've seen examples of anyone but Charlie even trying to make deals.)

Of course, it might be Charlie and the arkendish specifically (it is thinkamancy, after all), but it doesn't have to be.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 25

Postby Lord Kasavin » Tue Mar 23, 2010 10:12 pm

Reclaimer wrote:I will admit, though, that I have no idea why he wants to remain in the shadows when a play like this could go a long way toward mending fences with Jetstone.


I believe we can take him at his word from the earlier text update that he doesn't want Gobwin Knob to know he's working against them. Why? Because its always easier to beat an opponent who doesn't know you want to beat them. Plus, he probably still holds out hope of getting Parson to turn and doesn't want to build up any badwill. Or maybe, he realizes that FAQ itself is vulnerable to GK reprisal, and if thats what would happen if they believed FAQ and Charlie were teamed up to plot GK's downfall.

On another note, I have a feeling that Charlie is winging this one. Remember, he thought the battle was going to take place in Jetstone Airspace, not accross a bridge.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 25

Postby Reclaimer » Tue Mar 23, 2010 10:50 pm

Lord Kasavin wrote: Or maybe, he realizes that FAQ itself is vulnerable to GK reprisal, and if thats what would happen if they believed FAQ and Charlie were teamed up to plot GK's downfall.


Touche, salesman. GK might go there anyways, if they even have an army left after this. It looks like Jillian brought all her big guns to this fight.

Lord Kasavin wrote:On another note, I have a feeling that Charlie is winging this one. Remember, he thought the battle was going to take place in Jetstone Airspace, not accross a bridge.


Charlie is always winging it, he just generally has more panache than this. I still think he's being pissy with Haggar because his plans got messed with and they're a convenient outlet. If he expected Jetstone and FAQ to crush Wanda, he was probably just going to warn them off from attacking afterward, not have them walk into a meat-grinder.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 25

Postby Scaramouche » Wed Mar 24, 2010 2:37 am

robak wrote:GK should really try to ally with Haggar now. Come on, Rock out together! Sammy is the heir, right? He can survive with GK and rebuild his side in Spacerock.


I would pay cash money to see this. All hail the kings of ROCK. Only the democratic ways of Parliament Funkadelic could stand in its way. Also, if Sammy's the first wave, then is the army that follows him the New Wave? Next Wave? Ahem, anyway.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 25

Postby BLANDCorporatio » Wed Mar 24, 2010 6:07 am

Scaramouche wrote:I would pay cash money to see this. All hail the kings of ROCK. Only the democratic ways of Parliament Funkadelic could stand in its way. Also, if Sammy's the first wave, then is the army that follows him the New Wave? Next Wave? Ahem, anyway.


With Iron Maiden Jillian and Tremmennis channeling Glenn Tipton (or K.K. Downing, I can't decide)?

Maaay-be...
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Re: Book 2 – Page 25

Postby Best » Wed Mar 24, 2010 7:27 am

I really like this page- especially how the two princes deal with one another.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 25

Postby The Black Hand » Wed Mar 24, 2010 9:38 am

BLANDCorporatio wrote:
Scaramouche wrote:I would pay cash money to see this. All hail the kings of ROCK. Only the democratic ways of Parliament Funkadelic could stand in its way. Also, if Sammy's the first wave, then is the army that follows him the New Wave? Next Wave? Ahem, anyway.


With Iron Maiden Jillian and Tremmennis channeling Glenn Tipton (or K.K. Downing, I can't decide)?

Maaay-be...


I think Tramennis would be better as Dee Snyder, myself. He's got the hair for it.

But I seriously doubt they could beat Chief Warlord Ansom, especially if he channels Rob Halford.

Sure, Iron Maiden Zamussels and Twisted Sister Tramennis could rock out pretty hard - but if we wind up with a Judas Priest Ansom, I suspect he'd have this message for them:

"Out there is a fortune waiting to be had - you think I'll let it go? You're MAD! You Got Another Thing Comin'!"

Yeah, I went there XD
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Re: Book 2 – Page 25

Postby splintermute » Wed Mar 24, 2010 10:37 am

Dancing Cthulhu wrote:
Aquillion wrote:Why do you think Charlie cares about Ansom?

He's never given any real indication that he particularly cares about Ansom or Jillian. His sole reason for being in this fight is the Decrypted Archons, recall. They know some secret of his that he doesn't want revealed.


I'm fairly sure there has been no update that gives Charlie's primary motivation for helping Jillian as being the decrypted archons and what they might know.

What he might know about Ansom though is that Jillian just went off script big time. They had Wanda in the cross hairs and Jillian decided to go after the column instead.

I think Charlie knows significantly more about the Jillian-Wanda-Ansom triangle than we give him credit for, and that he's known for some time. Recall that he initially persuaded Jillian to ally with him by showing her a picture of Wanda and Ansom. Also, his archons detected Wanda's suggestion spell, and how Jillian's feelings for Ansom broke it, and Jillian used the archon thinkagram services to send a message to Ansom - they probably reported it to Charlie (or perhaps he automatically knows everything his archons do).
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Re: Book 2 – Page 25

Postby Hatu » Wed Mar 24, 2010 10:54 am

gazes_also wrote:
Reclaimer wrote:
gazes_also wrote:I think Charlie's NDA are completely (magically) binding - she can't say more than no comment even if she wanted to.


I think it's mundanely binding - if she violates the NDA, she breaks the contract, and Charlie is free to do whatever the hell he wants.

gazes_also wrote:He doesn't want Parson to know about his involvement because as long as he is an unknown variable Parson's calculations of battle strategy will be inaccurate.


Don't know about that one. Parson's bracer seems to take completely unknown variables into account during its calculations, an ability Charlie showed him completely by accident (And thus is aware of). I will admit, though, that I have no idea why he wants to remain in the shadows when a play like this could go a long way toward mending fences with Jetstone.


If there is no additional binding element to an agreement with Charlie then what would stop Parson from lying to him about the results of one of his calculations? Charlie has a way of keeping people to they deals that they are not even conscious of.


The deal with Parson may or may not be comparable to the deal with Jillian. But I'm inclined to think Jillian's deal is a lot less binding: otherwise, I have a hard time imagining how Charlie failed to required Jillian to attack and destroy Wanda's army once GK's turn ended. That's seems to have been the whole point of the operation, no? I doubt Charlie would leave it to chance.


Parson's bracer gives results in ranges of probability, at times quite broad. The bracer knows the stats and capabilities of all forces potentially in play. It is therefore likely taking into account possible unknowns and weighting their probability. Charlie's involvement would be a high impact variable but a low probability one, therefore a small factor overall. The range becomes narrower the more known variables you can account for or exclude, so effectively Charlie is skewing Parson's curve, and what would be a calculated 1% probability is a certainty.

The calculation about whether getting answer to what happened to the Archons was worth giving up the rest of the calculations is not that complicated. There are only 3 questions to consider and the main variables involved are known - Charlie and Wanda.
1. What is the probability that the answer to this one question will turn out to be critically (life or death) important?
2. what is the probability that the answer to any other calculation will be critically important?
3. What is the probability that Charlie will find out the answer by other means before not knowing becomes critically important?

if the answer to 1 and 2 is 20%, and 80%
and the answer to 3 is 80%
then there is a 20% of 20% chance that it is worth giving up the rest of his calculations to know the answer - or 4% which was Parson's answer



That's a very simplified analysis, but it still avoids the question of just how the bracer arrives at those percentages (80%, 80%, 20%). Unless it can evaluate unknown variables, how can it tell how critical the information would be to Charlie? Given that Parson doesn't even know what Charlie *wants*, I don't see how he could "program" the bracer to rate potential threats against his interest.

Unless the Bracer is just spewing out random numbers that people are giving unwarranted credence to (the classic Garbage In, Garbage Out problem), the bracers must have some ability to gauge unknown variables.

-H
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Re: Book 2 – Page 25

Postby Neko » Wed Mar 24, 2010 12:56 pm

The Black Hand wrote:But I seriously doubt they could beat Chief Warlord Ansom, especially if he channels Rob Halford.

Sure, Iron Maiden Zamussels and Twisted Sister Tramennis could rock out pretty hard - but if we wind up with a Judas Priest Ansom, I suspect he'd have this message for them:

"Out there is a fortune waiting to be had - you think I'll let it go? You're MAD! You Got Another Thing Comin'!"


Yeah...but remember the last time Ansom rocked out, all we got was a bucket of Uhn-Tiss...http://www.erfworld.com/book-1-archive/?px=%2F128.jpg

:shock:
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Re: Book 2 – Page 25

Postby Decorus » Wed Mar 24, 2010 1:21 pm

I think the bracer uses Mathamancy combined with some Date-a-mancy and Signamancy. Honestly I think the Bracer is Parson and not the actual object itself....
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Re: Book 2 – Page 25

Postby gazes_also » Wed Mar 24, 2010 1:27 pm

Lord Kasavin wrote:
Reclaimer wrote:I will admit, though, that I have no idea why he wants to remain in the shadows when a play like this could go a long way toward mending fences with Jetstone.


I believe we can take him at his word from the earlier text update that he doesn't want Gobwin Knob to know he's working against them. Why? Because its always easier to beat an opponent who doesn't know you want to beat them. Plus, he probably still holds out hope of getting Parson to turn and doesn't want to build up any badwill. Or maybe, he realizes that FAQ itself is vulnerable to GK reprisal, and if thats what would happen if they believed FAQ and Charlie were teamed up to plot GK's downfall.

On another note, I have a feeling that Charlie is winging this one. Remember, he thought the battle was going to take place in Jetstone Airspace, not accross a bridge.



Yes he was expecting Jillian to do something to take "The Prize" at Jetstone, but it was pretty much a certainty that Sammy wasn't going to join the battle on the RCC side without being leaned on, which is why I don't think the threat is an improvised bluff. Faq will already be in the crosshairs for GK reprisal for being the most actively involved faction in this battle.
There is still a larger plan to ultimately croak Stanley and get Parson which is still broad enough in scope that Jillian thinks she has some wiggle room to leave Wanda untouched and stay in Charlie's good graces to complete the mission.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 25

Postby oslecamo2 » Wed Mar 24, 2010 1:39 pm

Guys, guys, you all seem to be missing the main points of the last strip.

Two important but not essential forces are about to clash. Before, we were worried that either Wanda+Jack were croacked, and GK would be royally screwed, or Jetstone was "converted", in wich case GK became a rolling ball of doom curb stomping all oposition, neither result being satisfying.

Instead, the author now pits Ansom and a bunch of secondary characters stabbing each other whitout cheesy mancer links.

If any of them dies, the story can continue whitout much trouble. None of the main characters are involved except Jillian, and she'll probably pull back if things get too ugly. Ansom either gets to die in the battlefield (again) or stand over a mountain of dead royals.

So, the real question here is, how much rockers can Ansom take down under Hamster's tactical genius? Because from a commander's point of view, this is a golden oportunity. Destroy several of the enemy main leaderships, weaken their troops and make sure your actualy important units (the mancers and dwagons) run to fight another day. :mrgreen:

Because I don't know about you, but I believe the time for politics and dealings is ending, and we'll finally get some fine Erfworld-grade combat going on.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 25

Postby Lamech » Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:09 pm

That's a very simplified analysis, but it still avoids the question of just how the bracer arrives at those percentages (80%, 80%, 20%). Unless it can evaluate unknown variables, how can it tell how critical the information would be to Charlie? Given that Parson doesn't even know what Charlie *wants*, I don't see how he could "program" the bracer to rate potential threats against his interest.

Unless the Bracer is just spewing out random numbers that people are giving unwarranted credence to (the classic Garbage In, Garbage Out problem), the bracers must have some ability to gauge unknown variables.

-H
My guess is that the bracer knows the "rules" of Erf and it "knows" all that every unit of GK knows. We note that Charlie sees some of his Archons fighting at Turns since TBfGK: 20, but here we learn that Charlie learned Ansom is alive 18 turns after TBfGK. And since Charlie saw Ansom die, he knows that Ansom was raised from the dead to fight for GK. So when he asked how the Archons were fighting on GK's side he already knew the answer, and the archons which almost certainly got raised by flying Wanda know Charlie knows.

If the bracer can take information from all of GK it would know that the information Parson offers is worthless.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 25

Postby build6 » Wed Mar 24, 2010 4:29 pm

gazes_also wrote:I think Charlie's NDA are completely (magically) binding - she can't say more than no comment even if she wanted to.


Reclaimer wrote:I think it's mundanely binding - if she violates the NDA, she breaks the contract, and Charlie is free to do whatever the hell he wants.



I cannot imagine Jillian agreeing to a deal where Charlie has any sort of real "hold" on her. I'd see her as saying "screw it, I'll do it on my own". So I'd vote for "mundane hold" - Charlie was doing all sorts of things to "prove" himself as trustworthy to her, and then suddenly successfully demand that she do something like that? I don't see it.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 25

Postby Ninjaguineapig » Wed Mar 24, 2010 4:33 pm

Neko wrote:
The Black Hand wrote:But I seriously doubt they could beat Chief Warlord Ansom, especially if he channels Rob Halford.

Sure, Iron Maiden Zamussels and Twisted Sister Tramennis could rock out pretty hard - but if we wind up with a Judas Priest Ansom, I suspect he'd have this message for them:

"Out there is a fortune waiting to be had - you think I'll let it go? You're MAD! You Got Another Thing Comin'!"


Yeah...but remember the last time Ansom rocked out, all we got was a bucket of Uhn-Tiss...http://www.erfworld.com/book-1-archive/?px=%2F128.jpg

:shock:


That was before he became a GK trooper and learned the mystical ways of Rock from Stanley.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 25

Postby Hatu » Wed Mar 24, 2010 4:45 pm

Lamech wrote:My guess is that the bracer knows the "rules" of Erf and it "knows" all that every unit of GK knows. We note that Charlie sees some of his Archons fighting at Turns since TBfGK: 20, but here we learn that Charlie learned Ansom is alive 18 turns after TBfGK. And since Charlie saw Ansom die, he knows that Ansom was raised from the dead to fight for GK. So when he asked how the Archons were fighting on GK's side he already knew the answer, and the archons which almost certainly got raised by flying Wanda know Charlie knows.

If the bracer can take information from all of GK it would know that the information Parson offers is worthless.


Maybe. But if the bracer knows what Erfworld knows, why did it give Parson's plan to destroy Spacerock's tower any realistic chance of succeeding? It would have known that the RCC II could "time warp" in response to any attack on the city, which would make the odds of destroying the tower near zero.

I think it's simpler to assume that the bracer either runs on plot fiat, or that it will return gibberish if asked to analyze large unknowns. I'm hoping it's the latter. Bear in mind, we've seen very little testing of the bracer's accuracy.

-H
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