Book 2 – Page 48

[build6]

The Hammer vs. Plier argument is an interesting one, which brought me to this question:
If the Hammer tames dragons
And the Plier can decrypt fallen units, making them stronger AND cost zero upkeep

What's to stop someone possessing the Pliers, killing neutral Dragons and decrypting them, getting better units?

What's the benefit of the Hammer over the Plier? Except that it can crack walnuts, of course.

Worse yet: I'm pretty sure the pliers could be used to crack walnuts, too.

Nobody knows if (cue Highlander music) there can be only ONE who attunes to any particular arkentool. If it's not "fated" that Stanley and only Stanley can attune to the Arkenhammer, then the fact that the Pliers seem more powerful in practical terms (I'm finding Dwagons significantly weaker than what I'd thought Dragons would be, if mere archers could take 'em down) than the Hammer could well be because of who the Hammer attuned to - Stanley does NOT compare to Wanda.

What's Stanley's bonus? And his ability to rock out - is that innate to him, or conferred by the Hammer? If Stanley had to run from Transylvito's ambush, then he clearly isn't <insert preferred superhero who can fight thousands on his own - Neo, say, from the Matrix > level of awesome when it comes to fighting. And other than fighting ability, what "talents" would Stanley have? Certainly not strategy or tactics. In contrast - Wanda was already a Master-class necromancer before getting the Plier power-up.

I wonder if we'll find out more about Charlie in this Book...

[Sieggy]

Well. keep in mind that all the JS heavies are evacuating the Atrium. Some will flee into the Tower, where they can assist in the defense there, but most will likely flee through the doors out of the Garrison zone (they don't have move issues) into the outer city. All the GK forces have to do then is close and lock the doors behind them. (assuming the JS boyos don't do that themselves as a matter of course) The JS forces then trapped outside have to essentially re-take their own Garrison, breaching the walls. And without any siege, that may prove rather difficult.

All the archers, casters, Royals, courtiers, and anyone who is anyone is up on the top (from what we've seen thus far) to watch the humiliation and destruction of those dirty Toolists. Where they all think they're perfectly safe, because GK can't attack off-turn. Heh. Once the Courtyard is held by GK, they can then proceed to attack the other zones, those being Tower and Airspace. Parson will probably lead the attack on the Dungeon subzone. So, once the Atrium is in GK hands, all three other zones will be open targets of opportunity and subject to immediate attack.

They'll certainly take heavy casualties, but remember that because of Wanda's decrypt capabilities, they have effectively TWICE the forces JS sees. Admittedly, some of them are already decrypted, but we really have no way of knowing how many. At the point of beginning the attack, GK had 65 Dwagons of various types, 40 Hobbos, 28 Archons (all decrypted), 2 casters, and I'm assuming the remainder of the Dwagons carry various Warlords, decrypted and non-. I doubt any of the Dwagons are decrypted, so that means that GK has, for all intents and purposes, 130 Dwagons total.Yowsa! Stanley won't be happy about losing them, but he'd be even unhappier losing them and losing the battle as well . . . Not to mention whatever JS units Wanda can decrypt.

And once the Atrium is held by GK, the other Dwagons can proceed with Plan A, which was 'Slag the Tower'. They are no longer bound by hex restrictions, per Canon, so the Tower will be assaulted from both above and below. The Royals and casters will most likely retreat to the interior, where they will be officially caught between a rock and a hard place.

Regarding the assault on the Tower itself, remember that it's full of archers on top. All the infantry is (was) in the Atrium. Archers are pretty useless for tower defense once your enemy is inside it, and the lower levels are likely lightly defended. After all, the GK forces are entirely AB units, so why would they bother? Once the lower levels are taken, JS is officially screwed. Everyone is bottlenecked at the top, and as such it would be extremely difficult for them to fight their way down to the ground using archers. Especially since every JS unit that falls becomes a GK unit . . . And the absolutely simplest way to prevent the forces on top from trying to descend is to set fires on the lower levels. At that point, for all intents and purposes, the battle is over. All Parson has to do is go to cover and watch the Tower go up in flames, eliminating anyone without a jetpack or a Unipegatard to escape on, and even those will have to get past the Dwagons.

I think Slately is far to fat and conscious of his Royal image to make use of the jetpack, so if he tries to escape, it'll be on a Unipegatard, which, of course, will fail. (the red robe is a Mark of Doom) Trem, however, will make a successful getaway with the jetpack of course.

I still think the Archons can find cover on the roof of the tower, where they're shielded from the archers, and I strongly suspect that if they're physically sitting on the roof itself, they're pretty much immune to the Towers air defenses. AA doesn't do much good against troops sitting on top of the flack tower . . . And from there, they can interfere with the arrows raining down on the GK units inside the Atrium.

[Selexor]

And once the Atrium is held by GK, the other Dwagons can proceed with Plan A, which was 'Slag the Tower'. They are no longer bound by hex restrictions, per Canon, so the Tower will be assaulted from both above and below. The Royals and casters will most likely retreat to the interior, where they will be officially caught between a rock and a hard place.

Almost, but not quite: "City 'falls' when all units in the Garrison are croaked or captured." So long as there's still a single "active" Jetstone unit in the Tower or Dungeon, they still hold Spacerock, and the Gobwin Knob air units are still stuck in the Airspace. Once the Garrison falls, it becomes Gobwin Knob's city, and all Jetstone units in other Hexes are stuck... assuming they don't disband if Slately is croaked before naming an heir. Until then, the Tower's safe from an Airspace attack.

That's the biggest weakness I can see here. The Decrypted depend on Wanda, and she can't move until Gobwin Knob claims the Garrison, which means taking the Tower. I didn't mean to say that Gobwin Knob wouldn't be able to take the Tower through sheer force; if they do manage to get a sizeable ground force, by whatever means they can think up, they probably can. The difference is that they won't be able to do it fast, and they won't be able to do it without being incredibly obvious, and they need both of those things if they plan to take Spacerock before Tramennis runs out of patience.
Tramennis may be naive, but he's not stupid. If there are a couple of hundred powerful infantry, led by Hobgobwin Heavies, storming up the steps of the Tower? I'm betting he'd do what any of us would do... sigh, shake his head for a second in wonder at how he managed to screw up such a perfect situation, and give all the units on the Tower a simple order: "Croak the Witch." Which, considering that her shielding stacks are disappearing and Jack's Juice is bottoming out, is no longer even that difficult.

Storming the tower at all is only possible if a big pile of assumptions all manage to work in Gowbin Knob's favour, like I said on the last page. And even if they all do, Wanda is still a sitting duck with almost nobody left to be a human shield for her. And even if she wasn't, Tramennis still has his finger hovering over the "Kill Wanda" button and he's not quite stupid enough to hold off while a Hobgobwin hacks his head off.

That's why I think there must be more to this plan. Parson's got a chance because Tramennis is a tad gullible, but as it stands, this plan relies on him being dumber than a bag of sand, refusing to break parley even as the city falls, and every Jetstone unit then following his suicidal orders to do nothing. Parson cannot be assuming Tramennis is that stupid. So he must have some cards left to play in order to make this work... but for the life of me I can't think what.

[zilfallon]

The Hammer vs. Plier argument is an interesting one, which brought me to this question:
If the Hammer tames dragons
And the Plier can decrypt fallen units, making them stronger AND cost zero upkeep

What's to stop someone possessing the Pliers, killing neutral Dragons and decrypting them, getting better units?

What's the benefit of the Hammer over the Plier? Except that it can crack walnuts, of course.

Worse yet: I'm pretty sure the pliers could be used to crack walnuts, too.

Nobody knows if (cue Highlander music) there can be only ONE who attunes to any particular arkentool. If it's not "fated" that Stanley and only Stanley can attune to the Arkenhammer, then the fact that the Pliers seem more powerful in practical terms (I'm finding Dwagons significantly weaker than what I'd thought Dragons would be, if mere archers could take 'em down) than the Hammer could well be because of who the Hammer attuned to - Stanley does NOT compare to Wanda.

What's Stanley's bonus? And his ability to rock out - is that innate to him, or conferred by the Hammer? If Stanley had to run from Transylvito's ambush, then he clearly isn't <insert preferred superhero who can fight thousands on his own - Neo, say, from the Matrix > level of awesome when it comes to fighting. And other than fighting ability, what "talents" would Stanley have? Certainly not strategy or tactics. In contrast - Wanda was already a Master-class necromancer before getting the Plier power-up.

I wonder if we'll find out more about Charlie in this Book...

Well, dwagons aren't that weak. They aren't being croaked by "mere archers" they are being shot at with tower defences. Also, there are a crapload of archers with a dittomancer behind them.

Stanley is strong in close combat, but really...no matter how I look at it, he seems like a failure, let's pray that the little man starts a winning streak again

Also, not "necromancer", croakamancer

[Kyrt]

An observation upon reading this update again: Tramennis says that with holes in the roof, they'd risk friendly casualties if they fired arrows at the dwagons. So two more facts confirmed, I guess... one, the Tower can open fire on the Atrium. And two, you can unintentionally kill your own units with friendly fire.

Also possible they're worried about death by falling dwagon.

JS wasn't worried about friendly fire at the battle for the bridge.

[Foolamancer]

That's the biggest weakness I can see here. The Decrypted depend on Wanda, and she can't move until Gobwin Knob claims the Garrison, which means taking the Tower.

Not necessarily. Again, I think Wanda (and Jack, and Sylvia, and Ossomer) can move. They can fall. And they have Healomancy, which I am still willing to bet will allow them to avoid falling damage.

Also, I'm back. That was a craaaazy weekend.

1 - Thanks to the Atrium being splattered with Battlecrap, Gobwin Knob can still harm its own units here if they fill the Atrium and someone steps in the wrong spot. So the Atrium cannot be packed with units, or those units will simply croak.

How do you know that yellow dwagon crap continues to damage after the initial attack is complete?

2 - Not all the Infantry in the Atrium were croaked, since Tramennis ordered an evactuation. Even if 3/4 of the units in the Atrium have been croaked, that leftover force can combine with any and all leftover Jetstone units that were in the rest of the city - including heavies, wall defenders, and others - and provide pretty good resistance against whatever ground force Gobwin Knob can muster.
3 - If Wanda remains in the Airspace, she now has almost no cover with the Yellow Dwagons croaked, the Hobgobwins dropping out of the Airspace, and Jack almost totally out of Juice. If the Tower defences do open fire, her odds of survival are even smaller now. But even if Parson figures out a way for her to get down to the Atrium - very hard, considering it's unlikely she can use The Banana Exploit - she can still be shot down from the archers and casters in the Tower, because with the roof gone, the Atrium is now vulnerable to Jetstone's shooters.

But as soon as she gets to the Atrium, not only can she begin Decrypting the infantry there (thus providing her with ample meatshieldage), she can start dance-fighting, which apparently makes her much more powerful. And the dwagons which the casters are currently croaking can be Decrypted as well, since their bodies will fall to the Atrium ("stuff falls down, doesn't it? Everything and everyone falls down").

Not to mention a final point... a lot of assumption is being made here about how, if Gobwin Knob claims the Atrium, they can simply "take" the Tower. I really don't understand how that task fits any definition of simple.

I don't think it does, either. I just think it's possible.

Let's assume that Wanda can mass-decrypt every fallen Jetstone unit from the Airspace, which we still don't know.

We also still don't know that it's necessary. I've harped on the Healomancy scrolls for long enough that you really don't need (or want) me to repeat it.

Or, perhaps, we'll assume the Hobgobwins are going to pop a few bajillion allied units in the Atrium after they land, which may not be possible given that Gobwin Knob doesn't own this city yet.

I do think that's not going to happen, though.

And let's then assume that the remaining Jetstone army, which is not inconsiderable, is too weak to fight this newly-raised army, which we still don't know.

Actually, I'm pretty sure that we know that it is plenty powerful enough to crush Gobwin Knob's hypothetical new army. The question is whether or not it is in a position to do so.

The Atrium can be sealed, which means that most of Jetstone's units would be locked outside with no siege. That's the majority of the force stuck outside right there. I don't think Jetstone has any flyers, so nobody's coming in through the roof. That leaves the units in the Dungeon (which haven't been mentioned, and it seems unlikely that Jetstone currently has any there), the archers and casters and courtiers in the Tower, and the wounded infantry in the Atrium - which are soon to be part of Wanda's latest batch of Decrypted.

Which leads us to...

And then, having assumed all that, let's say that there's nothing stopping them from moving from the Atrium to the Tower and crossing a Sub-Zone off turn, which we also don't know is possible. Let's put every single assumption in Gobwin Knob's favour and say, sure, they can send a huge army of infantry into the Tower.

I don't think this is an assumption, really. I think it falls more under the category of "educated guess".

That Tower is currently filled to the brim with Jetstone's archers, who have been pumped up to maximum power with every bonus and magical item they could find to ensure they'd be able to croak the Gobwin Knob forces easily. They're backed up by no less than four Casters, including a Healomancer, Dittomancer and Dollamancer... extremely useful for defence.

Agreed. But the units in the Atrium comprise some of Jetstone's finest foot soldiers, and there's a lot. And, once they're Decrypted, they're suddenly getting Warlord bonuses from Ossomer and Sylvia, both of whom are high-level, and Wanda's Croakamancer bonus, and the dance-fight bonus. And they're accompanied by Hobgobwin heavies, as well as some Decrypted dwagons.

There's a large number of Jetstone courtiers (which, given that this is Erfworld, means that they're noble-class units with Leadership bonuses)

I don't think so. Nothing has ever said that Courtiers have Leadership. If they did, they'd be called Warlords. They may count as Commanders, but they probably don't have Leadership.

and whatever obligatory honour guard of infantry and pikemen the Royals would have following them around. And there's a decent-looking force of flight-capable units like the Unipegataurs there as well. And all of them, this entire bristling mass of military might, is being led by Jetstone's Chief Warlord

Who isn't exactly the most combat-oriented person in the world. The position of Chief Warlord was taken from Trammenis and given to Ossomer once the latter popped. This would seem to imply that Trammenis' Warlord bonus isn't as high as Ossomer's. And Ossomer's is now being applied to the Gobwin Knob units.

and its Ruler.

Who, as far as we know, does not grant any bonuses to units under his command.

Now that is one HELL of a defence force. Sure, infantry units might have the advantage over ranged, but they can be shot while they're in the atrium, and if they climb the tower, they're running up the stairs toward a bunch of guys who are shooting them in the face. Even if a huge swarm of highly-powerful infantry attack that Tower from below, there's still no reason to think that Gobwin Knob have a good chance to actually succeed in taking it.

I think they do have a pretty good chance. See above.

[zilfallon]

Also possible they're worried about death by falling dwagon.

No, Tram said it himself that he's worried about friendly fire.

[Selexor]

Very well put, Foolamancer. A lot of those do plug some of the holes in my observation, and make this assault much more likely to succeed, though I still have my reservations.

My reasoning that Battlecrap remains harmful is both straightforward and unfounded. Basically, it's viscous acidic sludge that gets on everything. It doesn't simply "disappear" upon landing, but remains where it was, like when Banana left a pile of crap behind in protest of Parson's attempt to fly. So unless there's an automatic "defusing" effect on the crap, I'm just assuming that acidic goo doesn't stop being acidic goo after a few minutes have passed. It might, of course, that's just what I'd assumed.

As for Wanda, well, I think we seem to agree that if she's still in her current situation when Gobwin Knob units attack the Tower, she's not likely to do well. You are right - we don't know enough about Healomancy to be sure what those scrolls will do. Hell, on the "Casters for Gobwin Knob" thread I even suggested a bunch of possibilities for what Healomancy could do, and any of those guesses could help Wanda survive the fall.
But, at the same time, there are the figures we know that make it extremely likely she'd croak upon falling, or at least be incapacitated - and possibly then be out of range of the Healomancy scrolls. And it's also where she falls: if she simply lands on the Atrium roof, she's an easy target for the Archers that we now know can hit her there. If she falls through one of the holes in the roof, not only can she still be hit by shooters in the Tower, but those holes are where the Battlecrap landed, and if my theory above works, if she lands in some that's pretty much instant death for a Caster, even one as combat-capable as Wanda. She's not a soldier, she wouldn't have the Hits to survive.

Like I said, if that's Parson's plan, it could work. But the way it is, the chances of it working are too slim. Now, those Healomancy scrolls could be the bonus that tips the scales, but if it's not them, it has to be something. Otherwise everything hinges on Wanda beating absolutely enormous odds in order to survive, something I can't see Parson relying on.

[Ansan Gotti]

As for Wanda, well, I think we seem to agree that if she's still in her current situation when Gobwin Knob units attack the Tower, she's not likely to do well. You are right - we don't know enough about Healomancy to be sure what those scrolls will do. Hell, on the "Casters for Gobwin Knob" thread I even suggested a bunch of possibilities for what Healomancy could do, and any of those guesses could help Wanda survive the fall.
But, at the same time, there are the figures we know that make it extremely likely she'd croak upon falling, or at least be incapacitated - and possibly then be out of range of the Healomancy scrolls.

I'm sorry, honest question, where are you getting the above?

We KNOW healomancy scrolls are able to cure the incapacitated, we've seen it twice in the text. We also know that Wanda MIGHT die outright from a fall, but that chance seems to be lower (and it may vary based on distance fallen) than the chance she will be either incapacitated or merely wounded/OK.

And it's also where she falls: if she simply lands on the Atrium roof, she's an easy target for the Archers that we now know can hit her there. If she falls through one of the holes in the roof, not only can she still be hit by shooters in the Tower, but those holes are where the Battlecrap landed, and if my theory above works, if she lands in some that's pretty much instant death for a Caster, even one as combat-capable as Wanda. She's not a soldier, she wouldn't have the Hits to survive.

Battlecrap may not remain acidic.
Most of it might have been used on the enemy troops.
It is probably not coating the entire floor so it might be avoidable.
The dwagon would probably take the bulk of that damage.
Maybe they'll drop a bunch of rations for a softer fall and to absorb acid.

There are a ton of variables which seem to indicate (to me, anyway) that landing on acidic battlecrap will not be an issue.

Like I said, if that's Parson's plan, it could work. But the way it is, the chances of it working are too slim. Now, those Healomancy scrolls could be the bonus that tips the scales, but if it's not them, it has to be something. Otherwise everything hinges on Wanda beating absolutely enormous odds in order to survive, something I can't see Parson relying on.

Again, honest question, no offense intended, but where are you pulling these "beating enormous odds" ideas? To the contrary, we have Jack extremely confident that Parson's plan will work, and Wanda smiling, and the protagonist of the story trump card. Based on the text, it seems very likely to me that the plan will work.

[Foolamancer]

My reasoning that Battlecrap remains harmful is both straightforward and unfounded. Basically, it's viscous acidic sludge that gets on everything. It doesn't simply "disappear" upon landing, but remains where it was, like when Banana left a pile of crap behind in protest of Parson's attempt to fly. So unless there's an automatic "defusing" effect on the crap, I'm just assuming that acidic goo doesn't stop being acidic goo after a few minutes have passed. It might, of course, that's just what I'd assumed.

Sounds reasonable. But there are areas of the Atrium which are not covered in crap. Even assuming that there are unled infantry wall-to-wall in there (and we know that this isn't the case), there's a limited number of yellow dwagons up there, and thus a limited amount of crap, and thus a limited amount of area covered by said crap.

My curiosity stems from the fact that I was under the impression that crap simply exploded on impact, then disappeared after dealing damage. It looks like I was mistaken, though. Several illustrations show infantry units coated in the stuff, so it does hang around.

As for Wanda, well, I think we seem to agree that if she's still in her current situation when Gobwin Knob units attack the Tower, she's not likely to do well.

Agreed.

You are right - we don't know enough about Healomancy to be sure what those scrolls will do. Hell, on the "Casters for Gobwin Knob" thread I even suggested a bunch of possibilities for what Healomancy could do, and any of those guesses could help Wanda survive the fall.
But, at the same time, there are the figures we know

No, there are the figures that we've guessed at. All our speculation on falling assumes that there is an even chance of Wounded, Incapacitated, and Croaked when falling. This isn't necessarily the case. There may be options for Slightly Wounded, Kinda-Sorta Wounded, Moderately Wounded, Severely Wounded, Gravely Wounded, and so on. Height does have some impact on it, and Wanda will presumably get as close to the ground as possible before risking the fall, so that will skew the figures even further.

The plain fact is that we have absolutely no idea of how falling works in Erfworld. We don't know the numbers at all. And we don't know what factors enter into it, or how much they affect the roll.

And it's also where she falls: if she simply lands on the Atrium roof, she's an easy target for the Archers that we now know can hit her there. If she falls through one of the holes in the roof, not only can she still be hit by shooters in the Tower, but those holes are where the Battlecrap landed, and if my theory above works, if she lands in some that's pretty much instant death for a Caster, even one as combat-capable as Wanda. She's not a soldier, she wouldn't have the Hits to survive.

The battlecrap "snaked through the air", remember? And the illustration showed it on a curved trajectory. The area beneath the holes is clear of crap, even if it is still acidic.

[RichMan]

I await the uncroaked dance-fighting dwagons ... of doom.

A croakamancer can lead the uncroaked in dancefighting. Does it apply to the new unit type?
Can all uncroaked dance fight if lead by a croakamancer?

I wonder if dwagons can even nornally be uncroaked and thus subject to the uncroaked dance-fighting bonus.

[Foolamancer]

A croakamancer can lead the uncroaked in dancefighting. Does it apply to the new unit type?

What - you mean Decrypted? Yes, the Decrypted can dance-fight. The Decrypted are identical to the unit that they were previously, possessing all their capabilities. Jetstone infantry has already demonstrated the ability to dance-fight (Ansom led them with a DDR attack on Gobwin Knob in Book One). These guys aren't Uncroaked, they're Decrypted.

Can all uncroaked dance fight if lead by a croakamancer?

Not all of them. Infantry can for sure, though.

I wonder if dwagons can even nornally be uncroaked and thus subject to the uncroaked dance-fighting bonus.

They can't be Uncroaked, but they can be Decrypted. But no, they can't dance-fight.

...At least, I don't think they can. If they can, it would be the most awesome thing ever.

Of all time.

[Angband]

I propose we name Parson's gambit "The Banana 'Sploit."

[Selexor]

No, there are the figures that we've guessed at. All our speculation on falling assumes that there is an even chance of Wounded, Incapacitated, and Croaked when falling. This isn't necessarily the case. There may be options for Slightly Wounded, Kinda-Sorta Wounded, Moderately Wounded, Severely Wounded, Gravely Wounded, and so on. Height does have some impact on it, and Wanda will presumably get as close to the ground as possible before risking the fall, so that will skew the figures even further.

The plain fact is that we have absolutely no idea of how falling works in Erfworld. We don't know the numbers at all. And we don't know what factors enter into it, or how much they affect the roll.

Of course, stupid me. You're right - all those figures were speculation based on our best knowledge, and we could be completely wrong. Hell, it could be something as simple as "Falling will take away a random number of hits." If we say that Incapacitated equals exactly zero hits, and Croaked equals anything below zero (a bit of a jump, I know, but it's got good precedence in various games), then that holds out pretty well. Things like the height of your fall would just shift the range of Hits Lost up or down, accordingly. And throw in a hypothetical Healomancy shield, or even a simple Luckamancy spell...
That being said, we do know that if you can croak from a three-foot fall, and that the odds of Croaking go up with height... there's a big chance that Wanda will just go splat if she jumps from her current height, no matter what spells are protecting her. And despite his insistence on the Parley being done properly, if he sees Wanda swoop down toward an Atrium full of croaked infantry, Tramennis would almost certainly open fire if she refused an order to go back into formation. No way is he letting the Witch get anywhere near a warm Jetstone body, after what happened to his brothers. If he opens fire, that's got to have an even greater chance of Croaking her than the fall does.

The battlecrap "snaked through the air", remember? And the illustration showed it on a curved trajectory. The area beneath the holes is clear of crap, even if it is still acidic.

Probably not in all cases; I'm guessing that, at the very least, the first gobs of crap that got through the roof would have fallen pretty much straight down. The Yellows could use their Natural Dirtamancy (I call it that for lack of a better term) to aim the crap once they had targets, but there'd still be some decent splatter right under the holes.
Still, I will agree that the spread of crap is wider, and therefore thinner, than I was first suggesting. So there's a better chance that Wanda won't land in any, though I maintain there's a decent chance of it.

Summary version:
There is, and always has been, a chance that Wanda would survive the fall into the Atrium. It's just... not a very good one, from what I can piece together. Something's gotta tilt the scales is all, because without her getting down there, I can't see Gobwin Knob taking the Tower successfully. But she can't stay where she is, and even the most optimistic conditions for her jumping down from her Dwagon still has a horribly high risk of her Croaking from the fall, from Jetstone's archers, from the Crap... to say nothing of the following attack on the Tower itself, which I still maintain is by no means a guaranteed victory for Gobwin Knob.

[Foolamancer]

Of course, stupid me. You're right - all those figures were speculation based on our best knowledge, and we could be completely wrong.

Yep. We have zero concrete information on the actual mechanism of a fall in Erfworld.

Hell, it could be something as simple as "Falling will take away a random number of hits." If we say that Incapacitated equals exactly zero hits, and Croaked equals anything below zero (a bit of a jump, I know, but it's got good precedence in various games), then that holds out pretty well. Things like the height of your fall would just shift the range of Hits Lost up or down, accordingly. And throw in a hypothetical Healomancy shield, or even a simple Luckamancy spell...

Exactly.

That being said, we do know that if you can croak from a three-foot fall, and that the odds of Croaking go up with height... there's a big chance that Wanda will just go splat if she jumps from her current height, no matter what spells are protecting her.

Agreed, but...

And despite his insistence on the Parley being done properly, if he sees Wanda swoop down toward an Atrium full of croaked infantry, Tramennis would almost certainly open fire if she refused an order to go back into formation. No way is he letting the Witch get anywhere near a warm Jetstone body, after what happened to his brothers. If he opens fire, that's got to have an even greater chance of Croaking her than the fall does.

...Trammenis has not killed the screening stacks. He very specifically targeted yellow dwagons alone. Wanda's protective screens are still present. And a simple dive into the Atrium would take very little time anyway.

Probably not in all cases; I'm guessing that, at the very least, the first gobs of crap that got through the roof would have fallen pretty much straight down.

Possible, but I don't know. If the yellows' Natural Dirtamancy can steer the crap, why would they not steer it simply because it had to go through the roof first?

And even assuming that Wanda is forced to land in yellow dwagon crap, we don't know how much damage it does, or even how much health Wanda has. "Ambient" crap may well do less damage than a direct hit from a yellow.

So here's what I see happening here:

The remaining live dwagons will act as a screen for Wanda, Jack, Sylvia and Ossomer, who simply dive straight down (still on their dwagons) towards the Atrium. The speed of this maneuver means that Trammenis may not get any attack opportunity at all, and if he does, he certainly won't get more than one volley, and probably not with his entire group of archers. Reaction time does enter into this, and Gobwin Knob isn't going to give Jetstone much of that.
The next bit depends on whether or not the diving dwagons can actually fly into the Atrium through the holes in the roof. If they can, they can basically fly down to the floor and let their riders off an inch from the ground. If not, they have to jump from the openings in the roof. Either way, they use Healomancy to survive the fall, and Wanda immediately Decrypts all the dead infantry in the Atrium, starting a dance-fight. The sudden boost in defense, and the presence of dwagons both Decrypted and alive, and the little juice the Jack still has in reserve, means that they'll likely survive the archers' attacks long enough to rush the tower. Once they get in, it's pretty much over for Jetstone.

[kagato23]

Selexor, Foolamancer I think you may have it. The system makes far more sense if we are in fact just going off of "x hit points lost" and having either teirs or distance being a "distance times roll = x hit points lost" or whatnot. So while you could in theory die or be incapacitated from a 1 ft jump (probably from "rolling a 1" and it manifesting as something like an awkard fall where you collapse and manage to twist your neck or hit your head going down), that's quite unlikely. And then odds are you lose 1 or 2 hits at most in nearly any other scinario. Rob may be shaking his head and laughing at us right now, but that makes more sense then percentages and contradicts nothing that we've already seen.

That also leads to speculation as to what causes incapatication. Looking back now, i'm guessing there are other circumstances where it comes about, and approaching it from this system makes it work. Heavy units likely have a better chance of causing it with a direct hit because of what we can safely assume is their higher damange per hit (or if it is a percentage game, heavy as a status increases the chances) So especially with lower level units, a heavy hit that doesn't croak you could leave you sprawled out. We've a probably already seen this in action actaully, when Webnair and Dora went down in the tunnel: Webnair wasn't getting up before that last hit, he was likely incapactated, with Dora in the same situation (or already croaked). Again with sammy bowed down before Ansom, oddly talking instead of trying to doge: it makes more sense if he simply couldn't because those piker hits had shaved his hits down to near death. We've already seen that units on the ground, even those with missing limbs (ford) can still put up a shield or swing weapons, so we know it's not simply cripping a limb. If we go by incapacitation being based off remaining hits though, these scenes (which I admit always struck me as odd) suddenly make perfect sense!

[Selexor]

...Trammenis has not killed the screening stacks. He very specifically targeted yellow dwagons alone. Wanda's protective screens are still present. And a simple dive into the Atrium would take very little time anyway.

No, but the Yellows are gone. And the Hobgobwins are dropping first of all, presumably to claim and hold the Atrium for Wanda's entrance. So there are less and less warm bodies to shield her... and by the looks of those Shockamancy attacks, if they really do arc like lightning, they could hit her anyway, even at reduced damage. Wanda's going to need to save every Hit Point she can to take the plunge. Hell, Jack only has six Hits, and he's extremely high-level for a Caster. He can't take much damage at all, and even if Wanda is tougher than him, we have no reason to think she'd be able to take much more.
Even if Wanda makes a successful dive before jumping off the dwagon, it's still messy as hell. The other dwagon-riders seem to be mostly Warlords, and every one that croaks makes Gobwin Knob weaker. Plus, not everyone can use scrolls - only a Caster can do that, and we don't know if the Archons count. If Jack croaks, Wanda could have no backup to heal the injuries she's guaranteed to suffer from the fall, or bring her back if she's incapacitated.
There's just not as many units to shield her as there were before. If she dives, it might indeed be that Tramennis only has time for a single shot. But that could very well be the only one he needs.

Possible, but I don't know. If the yellows' Natural Dirtamancy can steer the crap, why would they not steer it simply because it had to go through the roof first?

And even assuming that Wanda is forced to land in yellow dwagon crap, we don't know how much damage it does, or even how much health Wanda has. "Ambient" crap may well do less damage than a direct hit from a yellow.

Pure speculation as to the first shot being unaimed. My thought was that the first S-Bomb just dropped to make a hole, and from then on, the dwagons could see the units to aim at them, whereas they couldn't before. But it could easily have started its heat-seeking movements as soon as it entered, assuming its target stack wasn't straight down anyway.
And yeah, we don't know if crap will damage Wanda, nor how much damage it would do anyway. It just seems to me that it would probably do some damage, and really, given what we're talking about I don't think she can afford to spare a single Hit Point.

So here's what I see happening here:

The remaining live dwagons will act as a screen for Wanda, Jack, Sylvia and Ossomer, who simply dive straight down (still on their dwagons) towards the Atrium. The speed of this maneuver means that Trammenis may not get any attack opportunity at all, and if he does, he certainly won't get more than one volley, and probably not with his entire group of archers. Reaction time does enter into this, and Gobwin Knob isn't going to give Jetstone much of that.
The next bit depends on whether or not the diving dwagons can actually fly into the Atrium through the holes in the roof. If they can, they can basically fly down to the floor and let their riders off an inch from the ground. If not, they have to jump from the openings in the roof. Either way, they use Healomancy to survive the fall, and Wanda immediately Decrypts all the dead infantry in the Atrium, starting a dance-fight. The sudden boost in defense, and the presence of dwagons both Decrypted and alive, and the little juice the Jack still has in reserve, means that they'll likely survive the archers' attacks long enough to rush the tower. Once they get in, it's pretty much over for Jetstone.

This could work. Very good scenario. The key to it, though, is what you said - reaction time does enter into this. Tramennis' reaction, and what plans he can make in short order; the archers' reaction, and how accurately they shoot; the reactions of Jetstone's ground forces, and how quickly they move to the defence of the Tower. If the ground forces can enter the Tower and defend it, if Gobwin Knob's units find the tower harder to take than they suspected, if there are fewer bodies for decryption than Wanda is currently hoping...
It can absolutely work. But it's got to be fast, it's got to be brutal, and it has absolutely zero margin for error. One false step, one surprise move from Tramennis, one bad run of Numbers for the variables Gobwin Knob is facing, and the whole plan comes crashing down. And above all, Wanda has to hit the ground running, because probably the single most important part of the plan is speed. If she's too slow, she's screwed.

[nth]

Idle speculation:
I've got a bad feeling about Parson going through the portal. I keep noticing that Wanda -- assuming she survives the battle -- will have physical control of:
1) A capital site, probably including a lot of zero-cost royal administrators
2) territories which hadn't been able to generate much revenue under the previous owners
3) A large standing army, coincidentally also zero-cost
4) One perfect warlord

I can't shake the feeling that Goblin Knob isn't going to be in control of Jetstone, whether it's because something happens to Stanley, or because Wanda decides to break alliance and somehow start her own side.

[effataigus]

OK... many pages of discussion later, it doesn't seem as though anyone else thought that promoting units to heavy was possible until this last update. Until this update, I'd have made the argument that there is a weak-suggestion it is not allowed (from examples of heavy status being 100% linked to unit type). Marbitchow's suggestion that heavy units are on the continuum of infantry-piker-stabber-knight-heavy (from memory... order probably wrong) would imply that it could be a viable upgrade, but I couldn't find anything suggesting that this was the case. I'd have made a distinction between unit classifications (heavy, flier, siege) and unit rankings... it would have seemed almost equally weird to me if Parson had promoted Ansom's ground column to fliers so they could ignore Sammy/Tram and go after Jillian. I expect more forewarning of things that deviate so wildy from what we know to be the case on Earth.

So this really does seem to me to be the first rule of great significance that Parson knows, that wouldn't make sense from Earth-experience, and that is witheld from the readers for any length of time.

This kind of development to solve a problem that has been building for most of a year... well, to use a hyperbole... falls within the same circle in a venn diagram as if Parson had just invoked the "Rule of Consecutive Letters" which states: "any side with a chief warlord with a name that begins with a letter that falls immediately after the first letter of the side's king's name (in alphabetical order) must, upon request, surrender all troops and cities to the requesting party."

My hope for storytelling reasons is that Parson doesn't know for certain that he can promote the hobgobwins to heavies. That would make this plan working very lucky for him, but not (what in my mind seems to be), to co-opt a phrase, an author fumble.

[Selexor]

As for Wanda, well, I think we seem to agree that if she's still in her current situation when Gobwin Knob units attack the Tower, she's not likely to do well. You are right - we don't know enough about Healomancy to be sure what those scrolls will do. Hell, on the "Casters for Gobwin Knob" thread I even suggested a bunch of possibilities for what Healomancy could do, and any of those guesses could help Wanda survive the fall.
But, at the same time, there are the figures we know that make it extremely likely she'd croak upon falling, or at least be incapacitated - and possibly then be out of range of the Healomancy scrolls.

I'm sorry, honest question, where are you getting the above?

We KNOW healomancy scrolls are able to cure the incapacitated, we've seen it twice in the text. We also know that Wanda MIGHT die outright from a fall, but that chance seems to be lower (and it may vary based on distance fallen) than the chance she will be either incapacitated or merely wounded/OK.

Sorry for not answering, I only just noticed this post while reading back over the discussion.

We know that some Healomancy can, sure. But we don't know exactly what those scrolls are, nor what scrolls fall into Healomancy's discipline. As to the odds of her falling, even if we assume that the odds are exactly even of Incapacitated, Injured or Croaked - and we have no evidence at all to assume that - then there's only a 1/3 chance that she'll be conscious and alive after falling. If casting isn't allowed across City Zones when it isn't your turn, then Jack can't help her.
Both halves of my theory (Wanda is more likely to croak than survive, spells can't cross City Zones) are unproven, but at the same time both halves are strongly implied (height has some bearing on odds of surviving a fall, you can't shoot other things across Zones).
Foolamancer pointed out, and he's right, that we dont know any of this. But the hints are there, and, well, if none of this was a problem, then there wouldn't be so much trouble about the Gobwin Knob Airforce being stuck in place.

Battlecrap may not remain acidic.
Most of it might have been used on the enemy troops.
It is probably not coating the entire floor so it might be avoidable.
The dwagon would probably take the bulk of that damage.
Maybe they'll drop a bunch of rations for a softer fall and to absorb acid.

There are a ton of variables which seem to indicate (to me, anyway) that landing on acidic battlecrap will not be an issue.

Rather than repeat the Crappy Discussion that I had with Foolamancer, I'll let you pick out the bits and sum up by saying, to me, the battlecrap is a bit of an obstacle. Maybe not a huge one, but it'd suck if every other part of the plan went off fine, but Wanda faceplanted in a puddle of acid.
Though I don't think she can dive with her Dwagon. She's a Caster, so she probably can't be upgraded to a Heavy, and thus The Banana Exploit won't work with her. She's got to actually jump off her dwagon, and take the fall herself.

Again, honest question, no offense intended, but where are you pulling these "beating enormous odds" ideas? To the contrary, we have Jack extremely confident that Parson's plan will work, and Wanda smiling, and the protagonist of the story trump card. Based on the text, it seems very likely to me that the plan will work.

Oh, I agree that the plan will almost certainly work. I'm just having trouble figuring out what, exactly, the plan is. We don't know for sure what Parson is doing, and I'm quite sure nobody has thought of exactly what he's going to do yet in any of these theories we're all discussing. I'm just observing that the most popular working theory has a lot of holes in it, and that leaves me thinking there's got to be something else that we're all missing, but I'm buggered if I know what.

No offence at all taken on my part, and I hope none on yours. I don't want to seem argumentative or snide or anything of the sort, and I have no issue at all with the questions. I'm just enjoying the discussion.