Book 2 – Parson’s Klog 003

[Kyrt]

b) I'm not very interested whether this particular decision of Trem's is smart or not. Imagining that I were in his shoes (knowing ONLY what Trem knows), I'd proceed differently. (Unleash hell on the dwagons, apparently indiscriminately, but with the intent to croak the yellows AND Wanda, in such a way that deniability is maintained. If I really wanted a parley, I might spare some of the dwagons and Jack, and presumably Ossomer because of familial attachments.)

Thats the issue Tram has. He REALLY does want a parley. YOU do not. If Tram didn't want a parley, it doesn't seem like he'd have any issue about targetting the entire GK force. But...he does want that parley, so he can't do that. He will also have difficulty targetting Wanda because Parson placed her at the rear and had her and Jack screened. Its likely she would be among the last to fall and, following Jacks plan, one of the units with the highest chance to survive anyway. He can't get to Wanda without killing most of the rest of the force anyway.

Knowing only what Tram knows...you WOULD indeed proceed differently. But only because your goal differs from Trams. You end up "sparing" Jack and ossomer and some dragons at the cost of the parley you wanted.

Tram wants that parley. He wants to discuss matters with Parson. He wants to explore the possibility of a treaty, and try to arrange conditions that will not only have JS win the batle but survive the war. And once you take that desire for a parley into account...Trams options for wiping out Wanda and the rest of GKs forces narrow down to just about exactly whats he is doing. There doesn't appear to be anything else he can do.

c) The real problem, and I've railed against this before, is that Parson has no competent foil. I'd really, really love it if Trem turned out to be that foil, but it doesn't look like it will be the case. Setting aside any surprises, it looks as if Trem's gonna start his Parson-foiling with an enormous blunder.

The blunder, in this case, being to assume Erfworld physics can't be broken/bent

[Paladinian]

He wants to explore the possibility of a treaty, and try to arrange conditions that will not only have JS win the batle but survive the war.

Indeed, people keep seeming to forget that Spacerock knows that even if they wipe out every GW unit around their capital, they are still almost certainly going to be destroyed shortly afterward anyway. Gobwin Knob's conventional industrial capacity now far exceeds their own, even without the Decrypted advantage. The seemingly helpless air force is the only leverage they have and Tramenis hopes to exploit such to their full potential. He is smart to do that, as a dumber warlord would kill 'em all and still lose the greater battle.

He just can't perceive that the air force is not *actually* helpless.

I suspect when all is said and done Tramenis will manage to escape this battle, though likely his side won't survive. As others have mentioned we've already seen the Jet Pack, and the air space is very imminently going to be clear. We've already heard about how Spacerock can't afford to promote him to heir, but yet Charlie offers *just enough* bounty through Archon killing to cover it...

The Archons, not having the Food-Fight or Bannana-Exploits in their favour and being un-re-decryptable, are likely either going to be destroyed in the fall or left top-side as distraction / meat-shields. Their bounty is thus likely earned by-default. Whether Slately does the promotion himself to preserve his side or needs strong-arming from Charlie to make the call is the only real question to me here.

Whether Tramenis then goes on to re-found his side or spends time as a Barbarian (perhaps striving towards becoming an Anti-Parson specialist) is more hypothetical... personally I suspect he'll join up with Jillian over in Faq, or perhaps taken under the wing of Charlie. He certainly doesn't fill such a role now, but could he become one in the future? He seems the best candidate, as far as characters we've met go. (Well, Jack, but the circumstances of him turning against Parson seem the height of unlikelihood.)

As I reflect on Spacerock probably going down, I do wonder how much longer Stanley himself will kick around. Charlie still really, really wants a Toolist dead. Wanda will most likely survive this battle, against all odds. But Charlie is good with odds, and may take the opportunity to take down a distracted Gobwin Knob. And Parson, possibly with Sizemore and Maggie alongside, is about to transfer out of there, leaving him alone with just whatever Garrison lies within the city walls...

[barawn]

c) The real problem, and I've railed against this before, is that Parson has no competent foil. I'd really, really love it if Trem turned out to be that foil, but it doesn't look like it will be the case. Setting aside any surprises, it looks as if Trem's gonna start his Parson-foiling with an enormous blunder.

You mean like Parson started out his Ansom-foiling with an enormous blunder? (Not having a Foolamancer to veil the wounded dwagons/relying on Wanda's word).

I don't think you can judge Tramennis yet. His reasoning isn't that bad, and there's an interesting point here as well: suppose Tramennis had just ker-toasted everyone instead of parleying. From his point of view, which he's stated, this is not a long-term victory. Gobwin Knob is still very powerful in any case, and Jetstone's cash-strapped.

I think, from Tramennis's point of view, the only solution is to negotiate a real truce with Gobwin Knob. This is unsurprising given his predilection towards diplomacy, but practically, it's also true. So he gambled. It didn't work. This really isn't that different from Parson's first attempt at squashing Ansom. Now, you can make an excuse for Parson and say "yes, but he was still learning..." but the same holds true for Tramennis - who's still learning about Parson.

[BLANDCorporatio]

I'll be away for the weekend, and thought I'd clear a few things to steer the discussion away from repeating possible misunderstandings at each other.

Thats the issue Tram has. He REALLY does want a parley. YOU do not. If Tram didn't want a parley, it doesn't seem like he'd have any issue about targetting the entire GK force. But...he does want that parley, so he can't do that.

suppose Tramennis had just ker-toasted everyone instead of parleying. From his point of view, which he's stated, this is not a long-term victory. Gobwin Knob is still very powerful in any case, and Jetstone's cash-strapped.

I don't think you get me-Trem's (or even Trem-Trem's) brand of diplomacy. As long as some GK units survive, parley is possible.

Meaning, not all GK units need to survive to allow parley. Trem-Trem is obviously happy with sacrificing the yellows (and risking their riders as well). Me-Trem thinks that level of finesse is excessive, and as long as, say, a Foolamancer, a couple of Reds and Blues and a high-level musclebound Warlord survive, there's good cause to offer GK a peace offer, and allow survival of the previously mentioned units as a gesture of good-will. (Might even give the Pliers up, but only if negociations are really tough).

He can't get to Wanda without killing most of the rest of the force anyway.

Now, Slately's outburst in the previous comic update ("Why not the witch and the rest?") may be ill-conceived and not representative of what JS's air defenses can do, but as I said, a few GK remaining units, allowed to survive as a gesture of goodwill- it's the start of an offer. Me-Trem would consider that a fair exchange, particularly since they, the GK units, started pooping first. Our archers got fidgety and started firing all around. Ya know. Accidents happen, difficult to reestablish order in the field and all that. But hey, if the surviving 3 Dwagons and Carpet are allowed safe return, peace?

There's also another point to make here. {Me-, Trem-}Trem wants peace with GK. This needs, ideally, to have some Jetstone-enforceable component. A competent diplomat would know that a side with GK's reputation of handling parleys cannot be trusted to maintain an agreement just because.

Meaning, merely offering safe passage for some/all troops doesn't guarantee that GK sticks to the deal.

OTOH, we do not know what kind of hostage-conditions are possible under Erf rules. A-ha, you say, Trem is thinking of holding Wanda hostage to ensure that GK keeps the peace. While a possible strategy for Trem-Trem, Me-Trem doubts that GK would agree to such a condition anyway.

PS: Me-Trem should be replaced by BLAND-Trem to avoid any future confusion when everybody starts putting forth Me-Trems of their own.

[BLANDCorporatio]

{About Trem not being a competent foil, a rebuttal:}

You mean like Parson started out his Ansom-foiling with an enormous blunder? (Not having a Foolamancer to veil the wounded dwagons/relying on Wanda's word).

I don't think you can judge Tramennis yet. His reasoning isn't that bad.

This is a very good comparison.

I suppose the difference is that Parson, an Erfworld-naif, was fooled by Wanda, whereas Trem, an Erfworld-native, is, if anything, fooling himself.

I won't pick a side in the "what Trem is doing is stupid" debate, beyond saying that it's not what I'd do. Trem may have the best intentions and indeed, the best possible planning prepared, and it lead him to this particular course of action.

That said, this course of action will, unless some surprise (and I can think of one) saves him, result in a big disaster for JS. Much bigger than what Parson produced by mistake for GK in Book 1.

I hope that Trem, like Parson did back then, will live to fight another day, and improve his standing as a competent foil to the best warlord ever. However, that day is not today, and when the results are in (assuming no surprise), you won't be able to point out to a JS success.

EDIT: "not point out to a JS success"- Trem doesn't have to utterly defeat Parson to be a promising foil. There's measures of success/fail. For example, if somehow no blood were spilled in this battle and GK and JS were suddenly at peace, that would count as a success to Trem's diplomacy. However, if at the end of the battle Spacerock falls and Trem barely manages to flee to the second capital site, that would hardly qualify as success of any kind for him.

[HailGreen28]

What happens if the Garrison falls, but Slately is still alive?

[Native Jovian]

The garrison cannot fall until all defenders in it are croaked or captured. We don't know what happens to a side if its ruler is captured; if he's croaked then the side ends (making Spacerock neutral, but they won't freeze in time like has been described earlier because they're currently under attack). If he's out of the garrison but still in the city when the garrison is captured, then he (and all other Jetstone units in the city) is automatically captured. If he's out of the city, then Spacerock falls but the side continues.

[ErfDarg]

Just to throw in another idea:

Another reason that Parson may have gone with the "harvest" mechanic is to insta-pop more Hobgobwin ground forces. Back in an early Klog when Parson was interrogating Vert the Hobgobwin chieftain, he learned that natural allies have no treasury and must spend everything they receive on new units or upgrades.

Of course, this may have nothing to do with the current plan (it still seems more likely that the plan is to fall and decrypt), but if natural ally beefs are considered part of a sides "resupply" actions, then that would be something that could be done off-turn. Also, if the resupply was food, then if the game mechanics allowed units to pop whereever the extra food is (which most of the time is in a city), but in this case happens to be in enemy garrison, then that would also be a nice surprise exploit. Even if Parson couldn't move the forces until his turn, it would make his position much more defensible.

Can't wait for the next several updates.

[shalist]

If Jillian comes back, can Parson sink her ride by upgrading Ansom to a heavy?

Also, does this mean that the new heavy units will never be able to ride a dragon again, or can they be demoted to non-heavy units later on?

[Krennson]

Just to throw in another idea:

Another reason that Parson may have gone with the "harvest" mechanic is to insta-pop more Hobgobwin ground forces. Back in an early Klog when Parson was interrogating Vert the Hobgobwin chieftain, he learned that natural allies have no treasury and must spend everything they receive on new units or upgrades.

Of course, this may have nothing to do with the current plan (it still seems more likely that the plan is to fall and decrypt), but if natural ally beefs are considered part of a sides "resupply" actions, then that would be something that could be done off-turn. Also, if the resupply was food, then if the game mechanics allowed units to pop whereever the extra food is (which most of the time is in a city), but in this case happens to be in enemy garrison, then that would also be a nice surprise exploit. Even if Parson couldn't move the forces until his turn, it would make his position much more defensible.

Can't wait for the next several updates.

I think that rule only applies to schmuckers. food supplies would just be stored against future need. Also, the rations won't pop until next turn, and may never pop if the corpses are decrypted.

I still think that what people are missing is that dragons cannot voluntarily 'fall' out of the sky.

[holy_dwead]

Hey I saw a familiar face!



...

Barry isn't very lucky.

Seriously: I've been reading the blogs for months now, but felt moved to make an account just to say how much I appreciate this image. Celebrenithil, that was hilarious. Almost milk comes flying out of my nose funny. Thank you.

[Abnaxis]

Oh, Titans, the catch mechanic. A la Jillian "Four, get under the mount, I might not stick this landing!".

Everyone croaks their mounts so they fall at the same time. The EXACT same time. Right before the mounts hit ground, they all jump. One mass-decrypt later, all the falling riders have living - grounded - mounts perfectly positioned to catch them all. They land back on their mounts - and are now mounted in the Atrium, not the Airspace. Heavy Hobgobs hit-and-roll like Parson and Banana, of course, and that way they're not throwing away as many Dwagons' first lives, plus the Heavies should be better fighters anyway. I bet grounded Dwagons are still ridiculously powerful without whatever (if any) bonuses to defense flight gave them, especially assuming the Hammer gives a side-wide bonus to Dwagons (and the Pliers are giving their same-hex bonus to the decrypted Dwagons, as well!).

If this happens, I will gloat with the last of my remaining seconds before I die of "OMG"-ness.

This is exactly what I was saying two pages before that. No one seems to like it .

The hobgoblins are the advance catchers. 66% of them will live after the fall, and start hustling to catch the various units falling who could turn to dust (decrypted) or are too important to lose (Wanda, maybe Jack). The decrypted aren't being upgraded to heavies, not because it is impossible, but because the catchers need to move fast, and as soon as they catch a heavy their movement would be restricted (from Parson's Banana-falling lesson, the dwagon seemed to have trouble even moving on the ground before it launched itself)

1-Probability of death doesn't increase with distance, that's already been stablished. Whetever you're falling from the skies or from the stairs chance of death is the same(1/3).

2-Beggars can't be choosers. If Wanda croacks it's all over yes, but there's 66% chance she doesn't die, in wich case Jack patches her up and she proceeds to mass decrypt the hell out of Jetstone. 66% chance of victory surely beats 0% chance if you ask me, unless you have some other masterplan to get her on the ground instead of staying on the air where she's a tasty target for archers and spellcasters.

Thank you for reminding me of that fact. I had forgotten it, and couldn't find it.

In my mind, there is a world of difference between sacrificing a few warlords to take the city, and risking the lynchpin of your might as the uncontested superpower of Erfworld to take one city. It's the difference between sacrificing a rook to take a queen, and saying "to hell with it" and trying to chase down the queen with your king. One is most definitely stupid.

Whatever, happens, I don't think Parson's plan involves hinging the entire war on a 66% chance of success just so he can capture Spacerock

Do we really need any other reason? Geting your whole force on the ground at the same time is strategically much more sound than droping them one by one in this situation, in wich case Jetstone would be able to gank their troops more easily.

Suprise wins battles, so yes, it's well worth some sacrifices.

Surprise is a powerful force multiplier (if not in Erf mechanics, than in real-world logic at least), you are right. So is a legion of archers who can take potshots in the nearly-evacuated Atrium. And a swarm of casters and ground forces in a fortified tower. And fighting against a split invading force because not all units can fall to the ground.

Even if every single unit lives through the fall, I don't have all that much confidence they can even hold out before they get obliterated, let alone take the tower, and being in a controlled garrison with a large mass of units would help (more units = stronger walls). Losing units on the way down defeats this advantage, and I think it can be avoided by taking advantage of mount physics. I don't think this plan is entirely about the element of surprise.

[Kyrt]

I don't think you get me-Trem's (or even Trem-Trem's) brand of diplomacy. As long as some GK units survive, parley is possible.

That may be true, but the simple fact is, the more units he destroys, the weaker his negotiating hand becomes - especially as he wants to croak Wanda, get the bounty for the Archons AND keep the Arkenpliers. He needs something to hand back to GK to make them view the deal as worthwhile and a parley in good faith instead of the usual "lets offer ridiculous terms so we feel good after wiping them out."

Having him wipe out 90% of the GK force as a token of good faith isn't in his interests. Not to mention...Parson was planning on killing off most of those units anyway. He has some critical units he doesn't want croaked, and would like to save as much as he can, but death for those units likely wouldn't have derailed his plans.

Now, Slately's outburst in the previous comic update ("Why not the witch and the rest?") may be ill-conceived and not representative of what JS's air defenses can do

JS air defences can wipe the GK air force out. That is known by everyone.

ut as I said, a few GK remaining units, allowed to survive as a gesture of goodwill- it's the start of an offer.

And more likely seen as the usual Royal parley tactic. JS is already negotiating form a position of strength. Agree - or be wiped out. The mnor eunits he kills, the fewer hostages he has and his bargaining power is reduced.

Me-Trem would consider that a fair exchange, particularly since they, the GK units, started pooping first. Our archers got fidgety and started firing all around. Ya know. Accidents happen, difficult to reestablish order in the field and all that. But hey, if the surviving 3 Dwagons and Carpet are allowed safe return, peace?

JS gets peace and GK gets next to nothing? Yes...that is the usual Royal tactic.

There's also another point to make here. {Me-, Trem-}Trem wants peace with GK. This needs, ideally, to have some Jetstone-enforceable component. A competent diplomat would know that a side with GK's reputation of handling parleys cannot be trusted to maintain an agreement just because.

I would assume that would be what the million Schmucker bond was for...whoever broke the Treaty would lose a LOT of cash. Besides, as pointed out, JS and the RCC isn't snow white here either.

As it stands, you seem to be operating under the assumption that Tram feels that GK will accept a token survival of its forces as sufficient cause to agree to peace and this would justify Tram wiping out most of the units therein. I don't see that - JS needs to give GK back a powerful force to make the deal worthwhile. Stanley gets the dwagons for free after all and as far as Tram knows, GK has enough money to pop more warlords. The truly important units there are Jack and Wanda...one of whom he wants dead.

[pSycHOtic chICkeN]

I find it highly unlikely that the dwagons gave consent for that maneuver.

Subtle reference in this update maybe?

I'm offically very disturbed. Why would you do that to me?

I think Rob and Xin might enjoy disturbing the readers.

Mind you, by decrypting the whole of Jetstone forces, when the dust settles GK will be more than able to fortify that city pretty well. Jillian will be long gone, and Charlie clearly doesn't have a hidden archon army nearby, so they can afford to wait some turns.

I doubt if Jillian really is long gone. Those Megalos have huge movement, and it's still her turn. She was waffling about whether to go back to Jetstone, and I think she will. If she does come back, those few archons and Ossomer (all that's left in airspace) are just toast, and GK's main force, now on the ground, can't attack the airspace.

GK is about to take heavy losses on the ground, too--remember Jetstone has a dollamancer and a huge stock of cloth golems that'll be that much more powerful, and probably not decryptable. When a cloth golem fights a decrypted dwagon, Gobwin Knob gets weaker.

Slately can still escape with Ace Hardware's jetpack and catch up with Jillian.

[build6]

Indeed, people keep seeming to forget that Spacerock knows that even if they wipe out every GW unit around their capital, they are still almost certainly going to be destroyed shortly afterward anyway. Gobwin Knob's conventional industrial capacity now far exceeds their own, even without the Decrypted advantage. The seemingly helpless air force is the only leverage they have and Tramenis hopes to exploit such to their full potential. He is smart to do that, as a dumber warlord would kill 'em all and still lose the greater battle.

exactly. and the above is not debatable because the source of the "we're still doomed anyways" is JS itself.

the "other side" makes fair points about how Tramennis should've been more cautious etc., but the point here is that Tramennis, from his position - with quite a few turns of combat experience narrowing his perspective of what is possible in battle - has nothing to lose and everything to gain. It's not just that he wants to parley, he needs to parley - there is no point winning a battle and losing the war. if Tramennis was in an absolute position of strength and was just parleying for the sake of parleying, then alright - he's an idiot. And yes, Parson has made statements to that effect - but Parson doesn't know everything, and what he says is also coloured by his own perspective ("we'd have been fucked if he just did that, now I can pull out all the stops and show them what a PERFECT warlord can do"). Tramennis is just doing exactly what Parson does - trying to win. just that in this case, what Parson needs to win is resolved this turn - what Tramennis needs to do to win would have to play out over the next couple of turns (though at this rate, he's not going to have any more turns).

[Sieggy]

First, I doubt seriously that Slately would use the jetpack to escape - he would find it far too humiliating, and besides, I doubt if Ace made the straps long enough. And given the cute little wings on the tops of the pack, it's obvious recipient will be Trem. BTW, upon closer examination of the pack, there are no intakes anywhere on it, so it has to be a 'Rocketpack', as it's propulsion system is non-aspirating.

I think the 'parley' discussion is amusing, given the plot-mandated sense of irony in the story. Parson has been told that parley is a useless formality that royals engage in to assuage their consciences. He doesn't know Boop about Trem - Slately is the King, and all he knows about Trem is that he was appointed CWL to replace Ossomer (if even that . . .) He has NO idea what Trem is, how he operates, or that he might actually want to negotiate in good faith. All he knows is that the second parley is over, he's out of time. Which means he has to move NOW. His forces are literally under the guns, and face momentary annihilation. He can't wait to see what Trem actually wants - if he does, he risks losing everything. And losing everything means losing Wanda, which means losing the core of their strength. And he doesn't like to lose . . .

Now as far as Trem's POV, he's holding all the cards. He has as much time as he wants, as he has the GKAF holding formation under the muzzles of his guns. From his experience and everything he knows about the history of warfare on Erf, there is absolutely NOTHING that GK can do. They can't attack, they can't run, they can't do Boop. (except that Boop's happening) Even though Charlie warned him that Parson was trickier than anyone on Erf, Trem CANNOT conceive of a way of violating the most fundamental natural laws of his world.

This would be sort of like expecting the US Military to be able to anticipate that the Hounds of Tindalos could attack from any angle in any building anywhere, even if warned that 'they came from the spaces between the spaces'. They have no conception that the natural, physical laws that bind our universe might have loopholes visible only to those from outside our universe. Now, this isn't to say that once that unpleasant fact became clear, they couldn't adapt. They probably would, and in one hell of a hurry. But the opening actions would be exceptionally messy . . .

In spite of all the carrying on, Trem's not stupid. He's trying to take a longer view than merely winning this battle. Like a chess master, he's trying to think several moves ahead. As far as he's concerned, his opponent is pinned, which means he has options. His fatal error is in thinking that Parson has none. Much like Ansom when he besieged GK. He thought that Parson's only possible action could be digging in . . .

[jah77]

I think that Parson's upcoming plan has been hinted at, indirectly in this comic. Since Charlescomm knows Parson's battle plan, it seems clear that Charlescomm is trying to get Tramennis to foil that plan, without revealing that Charlescomm has the capability of intercepting communications, or that he is taking sides (i.e. that it is Charlescomm's desire for Stanley and/or Parson to fail, for whatever reason). It seems that above all else, at least for now, Charlescomm wishes to maintain the belief that he is a neutral party interested only in Shmuckers, otherwise he would have revealed Parson's plan to Tramennis.

That having been said, I think we can glean some critical information about Parson's battle plan from this comic. I believe that various posters have recognized each of these issues as possibly having an impact, however, I wanted to point out that this comic page strongly confirms these suspicions.

First, since Charlescomm wishes the archons dead (offering a bounty), the archons may play a fairly important role here. What that is, I'm not sure.

Second, Charlescomm knows that Slately might be dead, and that the entire Jetstone side might fall, and that Jestone currently has no heir, and therefore offers Tramennis enough of a "reward" for performing the service of killing the archons.

Third, (and this has been revealed already), Parson's plan will exploit a parley that Tramennis offers.

My personal speculation is that Slately will fall, but not before Tramennis is promoted to heir, and Spacerock will fall, but Tramennis will be given the Jetpack at the last moment so that he can escape.

[valce]

That's why he did the Heavy thing... Why is he killing his own dwagons? If only dead units can get onto the ground, why not just let them soak up some tower fire and then fall? Seems like a waste of dwagons. Plus if you had let them die after taking heavy fire it would be less suspicious.

So... yeah, why does he need the harvesting exploit?

Because if he relied on fire from the Tower to take them out, first, Wanda or Jack might be croaked. Second, If he relies on Tower fire croaking the Dwagons, they will fall piecemeal, at different times as they each take individual damage. This way, all the Dwagons get croaked at the same time, everyone drops at exactly the same time, everyone hits the ground at the same time, and Wanda only has to do a single decryption instead of doing them as they hit. It's why an amphibious assault force all hits the beach at the same time . . . Think back on why / how the French screwed up at Crecy . . .

This sort of makes sense. Wanda doesn't have to decrypt them as they fall, but I guess Parson is afraid of ground forces burning corpses before Wanda can get to them.

Stanley is gonna be pissed

Edit: A conversation with Stanley would be a good narrative trick to explain Parson's actions here.

[danhaas]

About the bubble kingdom: The usual erfworld strategy is to pop and send units off to the border for conquest or death. This seems to imply that poping a unit costs less than paying its upkeep for a long time, so you send most of your units off to the border so they earn their upkeep through conquest or they die and you stop paying for it. It also means that Overlords can't play defensively until they've popped enough units to steam-roll their opponents and so constant wars are guaranteed. Popping units may even have zero cost, provided you have the city with the proper level to pop the units you want.

And now with the latest klog, It implies cities can't choose to replace their popping orders with building orders or trade orders. Cities simply have to pop units non stop, and the only way to make any profit out of it is to pop heavies and harvest them, which is not interesting economically unless you have caster aided production.

Truely a terrible world for low level units.

[the_tick_rules]

Truely a terrible world for low level units.

Isn't that true everywhere?