Book 2 – Page 49

[Beelzebuddy]

there might still be a chance for sizemore and maggie popping up out of the ground with scrolls to heal them both while parson talks to Tre-faboo.

This is where my money's going. More plot, more narrative, and most importantly like thirty more pages before this battle reaches anything that could even remotely be called a conclusion.

I just started reading a book by that guy and am becoming attached to some of the characters... should I be concerned?

Yes. Especially if your chosen characters show any signs of success or happiness. To borrow the TvTrope nomenclature, he's big on Rape The Puppy moments.

I think that what the text is getting at is that flying down close to the ground and jumping off your mount does not significantly change the odds.

I agree, at least regarding the odds for insta-croaking, which is probably why Parson didn't order them to fly as low as they could first. That still doesn't mean we can plug numbers in. "Essentially random" in no way implies "all outcomes have equal probability," it means "no matter what, falling can still kill you with high enough odds that you don't want to chance it routinely." In that klog entry, Parson was working out the odds. He knows what they are, in this situation. But he did not tell us. We do not know them.

So from complaining that others assume too much, you now say that I'm assuming too little?

Uh, no. "Glossing over assumptions" should be read as "making some real whoppers, but pretending they don't matter." To wit, you're still forced to just make shit up for h_c and h_i, which means everything downstream is equally meaningless. I think the best part is your conclusion:

you need to remember that h_s and h_i are numbers that are between 0 and 1, so you must intersect the area defined before with the square between (0,0) and (1, 1).

...meaning Wanda has somewhere between a 0% and 100% chance to survive. Inclusive. Way to go, Mandelbrot.

[BLANDCorporatio]

Uh, no. "Glossing over assumptions" should be read as "making some real whoppers, but pretending they don't matter." To wit, you're still forced to just make shit up for h_c and h_i, which means everything downstream is equally meaningless. I think the best part is your conclusion:

you need to remember that h_s and h_i are numbers that are between 0 and 1, so you must intersect the area defined before with the square between (0,0) and (1, 1).

...meaning Wanda has somewhere between a 0% and 100% chance to survive. Inclusive. Way to go, Mandelbrot.

Funny, but I did say "intersect" for two areas. You'll find that the process eliminates about half of the possible pairs (when the required chance of Decryption-ability is 0.5; if you want a higher chance, more points get knocked out).

As for equally meaningless, I think you're just trying to be difficult here. If it means this much to you, then the formula should be

h_s(Wanda) + h_i(Wanda)*h_s(Jack) and it would define a shape in 3D space.

But I just wanted, for illustration, to use the simpler to understand 2D shapes. We have not even reached an agreement on those simple matters, let alone 3D intersections.

[cdrcjsn]

the issue is, if wanda and jack are incapacitated. all it takes is JS deciding to volley the archons and end turn to TOTALLY SCREW GK over, since Wanda will die once the turn ends since JS is last in the turn order, oddly the rule about free move in your own city might allow them to attack the GK foes in the normally inviolate night, making for quite the slaughter and JS getting back the pliers.

A few problems with that though:
1) Tram is totally flummoxed right now. He has no clue what's going on. His surprised response in panel three shows that he even thought the tower magic was attacking all the dragons instead of the yellow ones. If he knew what was going on, he might be able to react as you've stated, but all indication is that he has no clue.

2) If GK forces are attacked, regardless of who's turn it is, then GK can respond. If JS attacks out of turn, then GK can likewise respond out of turn.

3) I think the rule for an incapacitated unit is that it needs to receive healing within one turn rather than the end of turn. So ending turn now doesn't necessarily mean an auto-death for Wanda.

[╒╦╧╬╩╦╦╛]

Just a thought: who said that the one shown falling ws the real Wanda? Jack is a masterclass foolamancer so al this could just be a sharade for Jetstone while any number of things is happening:
-The real Jack and Wanda are stilll where they were.
-The real Jack and Wanda did get a hobo each and are safely droping.
-The real Jack and Wanda flew near the ground so she can decrypt but are waiting to land after they take the zone.
-The whole stack is on the run.
-...

Considering Parson said that Wanda fell, it is not too much of a stretch to assume she did

[Cyberchihuahua]

You forgot to include Bogroll's fall in your sample set. It didn't kill him (does landing on Ansom not count as a fall?), but we don't know if he was (un)injured or incapacitated.

Also, Bogroll's regeneration may come into play somehow.


Also, LOVE the glance between Jack and Wanda. They look like they know should be dead 8 ways from Sunday no matter what they do, and they still can't wait to see what happens next anymore than the rest of us.

[Ace]

Some unanswered questions:

1) Why didn't Antium know that yellow dwagon cwap qualifies as siege that can destroy the roof?

Wouldn't make sense to use it, and also it may just be that Tram only considers it because of out of the box thinking. If you can fire crap, you would assumedly try to use it to hit the archers anyway.

2) Can you double-mount with a heavy?

This just seems to be a stuff up. It's a minor one, and they happen.

3) Are the slow falling hobgobwins more likely to survive than the free fallers?

Wouldn't make sense if they weren't better off really.

4) Why didn't the hobgobwins remount onto better dwagons since some of their dwagons will remain alive?

This also seems to be a screw up, with the (lame) explanation being "no time"

5) Can Wanda decrypt multiple times during a turn (I know she was walking around at the end of Book 1 but that might have been artistic license) and if so how many times?

I think this has already been answered, it seems to be yes (she's done it multiple times).

6) What's going to happen with the riderless dwagons and archons?

I assume any riderless ones would be killed too, by Archons if necessary. The Archons will probably hover in the confusion, then once GK has the Garrison they'll be able to advance on the tower... hopefully they can pretend to have a thinkagram for Tram, coem in to talk, and then the messenger can attack (they will be assumed not to be able to). It'd suck if they all got killed off. Ossomer will be with this group too, waiting to be able to attack (shouldn't take long).

9) Can siege attacks from reds and purples cross the garrison subzone borders to destroy the tower?

Well, once they have the garrison they should be able to advance to other zones, so I'd sure say so.

[Shusagi]

Possibilities, in order of least dramatic to most dramatic:

Both survive: Yay. Parson runs on through and we get our climax.
One survives, one incapacitaed: Still yay. Healomancy.
Both Croak, or Wanda Croaks: Oh crap.
Jack Croaks, Wanda Lives: We get a decrypted caster for the first time. Would be interesting.

But, the most dramatic

Both incapacitated: Upon learning that they're alive but unable to heal each other, Parson goes through the magic kingdom ANYWAYS. Sizemore or Maggie might be brought along to use the scrolls and heal them, or PARSON HIMSELF will heal them; as we've already been told by Janis, he's a Hippiemancer.

And of course, there's still the question of: Archons killed to promote Trem to heir? Trem can't go to Transylvito 'cause of a coup? Heads to FAQ? Charlie gets a captured Archon and learns more about the Arkenpliers?

I just really hope Trem gets a chance to talk to Parson.

Edit: Oh yeah, and what's Ossomer going to do?!

[Sieggy]

Ya know, I'm to laugh myself silly if Ossomer does a Bogroll. He waits until there are ground units in the Atrium (and he can cross the zones), reaches out to his father imploringly, begs forgiveness, then snatches the fat little git over the top of the parapet and they both take a dive off the carpet to a squishy 66%chance of doom . . . After all, Oss WANTED to withdraw, but Trem commanded him to remain, so who would expect it . . ?

There's out-of-the-box thinking, then there's over-the-edge thinking.

And once again, probabilities are moot - Plotamancy trumps Mathamancy. The Titans Will Be Done.

[ShirKhan]

3) Holy balls, stop it with the damn 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 thing.

There are only two possible outcomes: Either I win the lottery, or I don't. Thus obviously the chances are 1/2, 1/2. With a 50% chance of winning, I just need to play twice (50% + 50% = 100%) to win certainly. This is the point where I usually wake up.

Would it help if estimations were functions of h_c and h_i, where h_c is chance to croak, h_i is chance of incapacitation, and h_s = 1 - h_c - h_i is the chance of surviving more or less unscathed?

No it wouldn't, actually. You're still glossing over assumptions about the underlying system (h_c and h_i are certainly not independent variables),

Of course they aren't independent variables, because [in his model] they are constants. While I appreciate your valiant protection of good mathematical taste, he's actually right about that one.

I just started reading a book by that guy and am becoming attached to some of the characters... should I be concerned?

Only if you want to know how the story ends. Bets are up whether he dies of old age before finally finishing the series...

kR Shir Khan

[President_Allosaurus]

3) Holy balls, stop it with the damn 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 thing.

There are only two possible outcomes: Either I win the lottery, or I don't. Thus obviously the chances are 1/2, 1/2. With a 50% chance of winning, I just need to play twice (50% + 50% = 100%) to win certainly. This is the point where I usually wake up.

This is really all I have to say to the whole "Let's calculate what the odds assuming each possible option of three is exactly 33% chance of occuring" thing, but better said than I could have.

What happens when you fall is essentially random. You can croak from a 3-foot fall. Or survive with minor injuries from a high elevation. (Go Barry!)

[OneHugeTuck]

Woot! Time for a new avatar!

Awesome!

[Trotsky]

Just for laughs, I 'm going to redo the calculations based off of empirical evidence. If we go by the number of falling incidents we are aware of (Wanda and Ansom in book 1 and Parson/Banana in summer updates) then we have the observed probabilities as:
death = 0 Incapacitation = 1/4 Injured = 3/4.

Since straight death is, seemingly, impossible, it shall not be included in further calculations. Now for the absolutely useless (but highly entertaining) mathamancy:
Wanda survives:
injured only. Chances = 3/4
Incapacitated and healed by Jack. Chances= 1/4 * 3/4 = 3/16
total = 15/16

Wanda does not survive:
Both Wanda and Jack incapacitated. Chances = 1/4 * 1/4 = 1/16
Total = 1/16

I like them odds.

And even that observation has at least three basic assumptions, 1) the mount and rider have separate probabilities, 2) the mount doesn't cushion the fall in some way, and 3) there is no difference between falling from having your mount shot out from under you and falling because the guy riding you is fat and made you jump off a rampart. Also, four subjects spread across three incidents are hardly statistically significant.

Man, I love it when I get to auto-plagiarize in a topically appropriate manner, I didn't even have to rephrase anything to match the context.

P.S. I didn't include Ansom being tackled by Bogroll because I assumed Being tackled (and likely landed on) by Bogroll adds damage and skews the results. It was most definitely NOT because I forgot that that would have been considered a fall.

You forgot to include Bogroll's fall in your sample set. It didn't kill him (does landing on Ansom not count as a fall?), but we don't know if he was (un)injured or incapacitated.

Good catch, I did forget Bogroll. I'm not going to go back and rework the numbers because, as you say, we don't know whether he was injured or incapacitated.

[danhaas]

Ya know, I'm to laugh myself silly if Ossomer does a Bogroll. He waits until there are ground units in the Atrium (and he can cross the zones), reaches out to his father imploringly, begs forgiveness, then snatches the fat little git over the top of the parapet and they both take a dive off the carpet to a squishy 66%chance of doom . . . After all, Oss WANTED to withdraw, but Trem commanded him to remain, so who would expect it . . ?

There's out-of-the-box thinking, then there's over-the-edge thinking.

And once again, probabilities are moot - Plotamancy trumps Mathamancy. The Titans Will Be Done.

Ossomer can't go from the Airspace to the Tower directly, off-turn. He has to "cheat" and fall to the Atrium, dominate the Atrium, and then, if crossing subzones is possible off-turn, go into the Tower.

I assume any riderless ones would be killed too, by Archons if necessary. The Archons will probably hover in the confusion, then once GK has the Garrison they'll be able to advance on the tower... hopefully they can pretend to have a thinkagram for Tram, coem in to talk, and then the messenger can attack (they will be assumed not to be able to). It'd suck if they all got killed off. Ossomer will be with this group too, waiting to be able to attack (shouldn't take long).

After all that speech of tantrums, lower than a worm, honor, cowardice, etc., it would be really disheartening if Trem decided to murder his defenseless brother in cold blood.

And I'm glad to see Barry again, but I do hope we see Banana split soon. Yeah I did it.

[oslecamo2]

Hell yeah I hope this update teaches a lesson toall the people claiming "WWAAAHHH Hamster would never gamble Wanda's life WWAAAHH!"

Some other poster on the last thread predicted Trems would go WTF at the situation, meaning he will spend precious moments trying to understand what's hapening while Wanda gets up and starts decrypting stuff. Wherever you are, congratulations to you!

Also Wanda's clearly alive. Why?
-Eyes not crossed.
-Bruise on her shoulder. Wich is a sign of wound. So if she's wounded she's not outright killed. Death by falling would be a clean death.

The real question is if she's conscious and whetever Jack is able to get her back on her foot.

Also awesome art!

[Trotsky]

3) Holy balls, stop it with the damn 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 thing.

There are only two possible outcomes: Either I win the lottery, or I don't. Thus obviously the chances are 1/2, 1/2. With a 50% chance of winning, I just need to play twice (50% + 50% = 100%) to win certainly. This is the point where I usually wake up.

Actually, playing twice would only give you a 75% chance of winning. (though you would have a 25% chance of winning twice)

P.S. This forum has two possible outcomes, either we make wild, baseless assumptions and predictions and follow them to their logical conclusion for the sake of having something to discuss, or we limit ourselves to only what we can be sure about have to resort to starting KWW IV (I think that's where we would be now) in order to pass time between updates.

[Ace]

Ossomer can't go from the Airspace to the Tower directly, off-turn. He has to "cheat" and fall to the Atrium, dominate the Atrium, and then, if crossing subzones is possible off-turn, go into the Tower.

The rules are unclear at this point... once GK gains control of the Garrison, perhaps the aerial units can attack?

[Infidel]

The first panel, without panel 2 and 3 would be a great wallpaper.

[Fug]

I notice there don't seem to be any jetstone croaked in the atrium- I guess they took them with them or they are out of scene. I doubt this is simply an oversight.

[Infidel]

You forgot to include Bogroll's fall in your sample set. It didn't kill him (does landing on Ansom not count as a fall?), but we don't know if he was (un)injured or incapacitated.

Also, Bogroll's regeneration may com into play somehow.


Also, LOVE the glance between Jack and Wanda. They look like they know should be dead 8 ways from Sunday no matter what they do, and they still can't wait to see what happens next anymore than the rest of us.

I love it too. They have a lot of faith in Parson now. Earned the hard way.

[Sieggy]

Ya know, I'm to laugh myself silly if Ossomer does a Bogroll. He waits until there are ground units in the Atrium (and he can cross the zones), reaches out to his father imploringly, begs forgiveness, then snatches the fat little git over the top of the parapet and they both take a dive off the carpet to a squishy 66%chance of doom . . . After all, Oss WANTED to withdraw, but Trem commanded him to remain, so who would expect it . . ?

There's out-of-the-box thinking, then there's over-the-edge thinking.

And once again, probabilities are moot - Plotamancy trumps Mathamancy. The Titans Will Be Done.

Ossomer can't go from the Airspace to the Tower directly, off-turn. He has to "cheat" and fall to the Atrium, dominate the Atrium, and then, if crossing subzones is possible off-turn, go into the Tower.

I dunno . . . that's not what the rules say, though I'll concede that it's really kind of ambiguous. According to Klog #13 (tBfGK), "Once units are in any part of the Garrison, then they can attack any other zone in the Garrison". It doesn't say anything about whether only the units in that zone can attack other zones, or individual units having to 'touch base'. BUT - the Tower borders airspace and the Courtyard, and if you have units in the Atrium, it should leave the Tower vulnerable at that point. And I doubt very seriously if Trem will be aware of that fact.

Now, if this is the case, then the very second that GK has functioning units in the Atrium, then the Tower is open to attack by ANY GK unit, even ones who haven't gone to ground first. And that leaves Parson with some seriously interesting openings.

Ossomer and the Archons are right there . . . in the confusion (all will be chaos as Trem yells at the casters, the casters protest their innocence, Slately throws a tantrum, and the archers stand there open mouthed) they can wreak havoc with the forces all neatly grouped together in a nice, tight killing zone. That would give Wanda & Jack (who, BTW, looked like he was in a much better survival posture than Wanda, as he's still up on top of his purple, hanging on for dear life) enough time to get their forces decrypted & organized.

And while dealing with the first wave, they're not going to be paying any attention to what's going on down in the Atrium. IOW, the Archons will be a sacrificial diversion & soften up the units on the Tower . . . By the time Trem & his Merrie Men finish off the first wave, thinking they're in the clear, the second wave (the zombie horde) jumps up and cleans their collective clocks.

What role Parson & Sizemore have to play (and it's now a given that Sizemore will be accompanying him) remains to be seen, but it ought to be fun.