Book 2 – Text Updates 038

[Rizban]

I doubt Charlie had anything to do with the number of Dwagons Stanley found on his way to take Faq.
Fate played a very cruel trick on Wanda.

This.

I don't understand why everyone is so eager to credit Charlie with the fall of FAQ.

Remember that Charlie is somehow influencing only marbits to spawn around Gobwin Knob, and prevent any gobwins from spawning. However he is doing that could probably also be used to influence dragons spawning also.

That being said, I don't think Charlie was responsible for it because neither side was paying him. Unless it was a play to somehow get the hammer for himself.

All he has to do is give the Marbit tribes schmuckers for them to populate more and overrun the Gobwins. Dwagons don't have Language and can't be natural allies, which means you can't just give them schmuckers to make them populate faster.

[BLANDCorporatio]

If one knew when a thinkagram was in progress and one knew the locations of both parties, one could predict how the vibrations would go along the gstrings. And when those vibrations were distorted even in the slightest, that was an indication that a third party was picking up the message. Monitor enough messages and one could get a sense of the direction of the third party.

Excellent! Too bad it's fan-fic, but I'd love to see some traffic analysis done by Erfworlders!

[atalex]

I doubt Charlie had anything to do with the number of Dwagons Stanley found on his way to take Faq.
Fate played a very cruel trick on Wanda.

This.

I don't understand why everyone is so eager to credit Charlie with the fall of FAQ.

Remember that Charlie is somehow influencing only marbits to spawn around Gobwin Knob, and prevent any gobwins from spawning. However he is doing that could probably also be used to influence dragons spawning also.

That being said, I don't think Charlie was responsible for it because neither side was paying him. Unless it was a play to somehow get the hammer for himself.

All he has to do is give the Marbit tribes schmuckers for them to populate more and overrun the Gobwins. Dwagons don't have Language and can't be natural allies, which means you can't just give them schmuckers to make them populate faster.

No offense, but that seems like circular logic to me. "Charlie could have manipulated gobwin numbers by bribing marbit tribes to wipe them out, but he couldn't have manipulated dragon numbers that way. Therefore, he couldn't have been responsible for the change in dragon numbers." However, if the change in gobwin numbers was not due to the reason you hypothesize but was due something else -- like manipulating gobwin pop rates through Luckamancy, Turnamancy or even Weirdomancy -- then the same effect might also be applicable to the dragon population anomaly. I'm not saying that Stanley's luck with the dragons was definitely due to Charlie, but both of those anomalies seem (to me anyway) to be weird but in similar ways.

[Rizban]

No offense, but that seems like circular logic to me. "Charlie could have manipulated gobwin numbers by bribing marbit tribes to wipe them out, but he couldn't have manipulated dragon numbers that way. Therefore, he couldn't have been responsible for the change in dragon numbers." However, if the change in gobwin numbers was not due to the reason you hypothesize but was due something else -- like manipulating gobwin pop rates through Luckamancy, Turnamancy or even Weirdomancy -- then the same effect might also be applicable to the dragon population anomaly. I'm not saying that Stanley's luck with the dragons was definitely due to Charlie, but both of those anomalies seem (to me anyway) to be weird but in similar ways.

The key difference being that there is a clear, simple method of increasing the size of a force of natural allies provided in canon, i.e. giving them schmuckers. There is no such method given at all in canon for changing the pop rate of animals like dwagons. As such, theories that Charlie manipulated the dwagons pop rate in the Misty Mountains are based on pure conjecture.

Also, pointing out that a theory falls apart if a base premise proves false isn't much of an argument. That's true of all theories and part of what makes them theories.

[Lor]

:shock: I have one thing to say... D'OH!

While reading the thread I'd forgotten what the actual update said

Don't be embarrassed. You did bring up some interesting possibilities. For the sake of the magic system, hopefully the senses aren't necessarily a sense of the REAL scores, but just some vague self-interpretation of the score.

Like in the way that few could tell the difference between the colors #FFDADA and #FFDADB (chosen at random - both pale pink), but the difference between those and #AA0000 (a dark red) is easy.

[Infidel]

If one knew when a thinkagram was in progress and one knew the locations of both parties, one could predict how the vibrations would go along the gstrings. And when those vibrations were distorted even in the slightest, that was an indication that a third party was picking up the message. Monitor enough messages and one could get a sense of the direction of the third party. The Bunny-Caesar thinkagrams were just one of many prearranged communications.

I don't know that this necessarily follows. It all depends on how invasive the method of "listening" goes. Sure, someone has to "pluck" the strings, but there is nothing to indicate yet that an interception requires anything more than picking a string and putting one's ear very close. If you have to take the string and connect it to a tin cup to listen, then yes, it could be done, provided that the distances involved are great enough and the instrumentation used, fine enough, to measure such.

[Oberon]

One thing that has always bothered me is that Stanley's backstory suggests that he was at one point a capable leader. Now, he's dumb as a post.

Stanley was a competent Warlord. That is a long cry from the skills necessary to be a competent Overlord. Stanley is the Erfworld poster-boy for the Peter Principle.

[Raza]

They were rather some distance away - enough to be uncertain about his identity in the first place, and the art emphasizes this as well. Also, it's doubtful whether speaking someone's name to a third party counts as addressing them.

So you think it vaguely plausible that someone - Charlie, say - capable of listening in on the MK could possibly NOT deduce that Sizemore was there and that he came through as a tri-link with Maggie and Wanda? You think failure to say his name would provide any meaningful degree of concealment?

I have a bag here, and the cat is in low Erf orbit.

Surveillance is always a matter of balancing limited resources against odds of finding out relevant information from a given area/source. A lot of its successes are semi-accidental. Nobody can afford to watch everything with all of their attention.

Assuming that only the lowest and highest levels of information security are of practical relevance is a common beginners mistake, at least when it comes to people desiring to avoid detection by law enforcement.


Also, there's more to the Red Mage's statement than pointing out Sizemore's presence. One could also infer from it that he(?) and Sagan knew Sizemore, knew that about one another, and thought it unexpected/relevant enough to point out. That said, there are plausible explanations for all of these, and the shushing only hurts those - you make a reasonable case. I consider it up in the air, then.

[teratorn]

'm not saying that Stanley's luck with the dragons was definitely due to Charlie, but both of those anomalies seem (to me anyway) to be weird but in similar ways.

There's a big difference, there is a reason for removing gobwins. But why would charlie help Stanley to finish Faq? It wasn't the hammer, if Charlie were that interested in the Hammer it would have been easier to dispatch a few tens of archons to each hex around Stanley's likely path to Faq. One possible reason would be removing a competitor for mercenary work, Jillian with her huge bonus could be getting all the big contracts. Charlie could have finished Faq when jillian left, but knowledge of what he had done would ruin his reputation as a side not interested in conquest.

Besides, do we even know if Charlie was active around that time? How old is Charlie's side?

[the_tick_rules]

That elf chick is the bottom right looks familiar. Anyone know who she is an omage to? I'm assuming gas mask is psycho mantis?

[fjolnir]

It's Zelda from the LoZ...

[Angband]

Could the male with the goatee in the upper right be... Rob Baldur?

[mastigo]

My reaction: so how many secret conspiracies ARE THERE in the MK? Perhaps one for each type of caster?

[Sieggy]

There's always one more than you know about . . .

[multilis]

There's always one more than you know about . . .

Of course... the datomancer conspiracy, the dwagon conspiracy (they communicate using secret sign language), and of course Charlie has several conspiracies...

But the biggest one of all is Sizemore and his secret stash of crap and arkenshovel, hidden right under their noses. Every day his shovel is "cleansed" and he has to apply another layer of dirt to hide its secret powers.

Crapzilla:
Ingredients
10 tonnes of regular crap
2 tonnes of assorted dragon crap
200 pounds of "ultimate warlord" crap

1 Linkup: dirtomancer(arkenshovel)-weirdomancer-thinkomancer

Result: Crap Golem with the strength and hitpoints of 20 normal golems, breath weapons of every type of dragon, and brains of a perfect warlord. Golem gets huge bonus if lead by a dirtomancer, and another bonus if arkenshovel is in same hex, and is able to hide/protect the dirtomancer in his butt.

(Of course now Rob will have to change the story because I just gave away his planned surprise ending )

[Sixty]

Could the male with the goatee in the upper right be... Rob Baldur?

Nah, Rob's hair is much darker. I doubt it's him.

[gatherer818]

Because dwagons are not a natural side that can accept shmuckers or otherwise be allied, it seems highly unlikely that Charlie could have somehow manipulated the dwagons with a turnamancer. This becomes even more unlikely when you remember that a caster can only target units in their own hex (thinkagrams being the only known exception) and that unled stacks, i.e. wild dwagons, automatically attack enemy units in their hex. It would be insanely difficult to get a turnamancer into a hex with wild dwagons long enough to speed up their "production" without the dwagons killing the mancer, not to mention actually finding a turnamancer willing to risk that danger.

However, it is quite possible that Charlie could have linked with a Luckamancer (and a Lookamancer?) to influence the probability of dwagons popping in the various hexes on Stanley's route.

Again dealing with the "caster in hex gets autoattacked off turn when dwagon pops" problem that results in either the death of the dwagon or the death of the caster.

The "Caster must be in the hex" restriction only applies if it is NOT the caster's turn. Every indication has been that on-turn Casters can target enemies in adjacent hexes, and that Casters with the ability to reach farther (Lookamancers, Thinkamancers at least) could do things besides direct attacks in any hex they were capable of perceiving. Linked Casters could stretch this farther - and we have no clue how exactly Luckamancy works. However, I'm willing to bet it's not a "requires-direct-line-of-sight-and-a-to-hit-roll" effect very often. Much more likely it can be cast like a blanket over a zone - especially in a link with Charlie, who was capable of producing the Spell-Which-Must-Not-Be-Named.

[Rizban]

However, it is quite possible that Charlie could have linked with a Luckamancer (and a Lookamancer?) to influence the probability of dwagons popping in the various hexes on Stanley's route.

Again dealing with the "caster in hex gets autoattacked off turn when dwagon pops" problem that results in either the death of the dwagon or the death of the caster.

The "Caster must be in the hex" restriction only applies if it is NOT the caster's turn. Every indication has been that on-turn Casters can target enemies in adjacent hexes, and that Casters with the ability to reach farther (Lookamancers, Thinkamancers at least) could do things besides direct attacks in any hex they were capable of perceiving. Linked Casters could stretch this farther - and we have no clue how exactly Luckamancy works. However, I'm willing to bet it's not a "requires-direct-line-of-sight-and-a-to-hit-roll" effect very often. Much more likely it can be cast like a blanket over a zone - especially in a link with Charlie, who was capable of producing the Spell-Which-Must-Not-Be-Named.

Turnamancy
As far as we know, a Turnamancer must be in the hex where the spells are being cast. Only known references to Turnamancy, the caster is always in the city, whether for speeding up production or casting that spell.

[Agaric]

That elf chick is the bottom right looks familiar. Anyone know who she is an omage to? I'm assuming gas mask is psycho mantis?

Could the male with the goatee in the upper right be... Rob Baldur?

Heh, the thread exceeded the reading span of people

On page 1 quite a few people have been compiled and verified already (with one notable addition later).
From left to right, from top to bottom:

Unidentified Neck Guy - Unidentified Blonde Lady With No Visible Clothes - Aristotle - Carl Sagan - Derren Brown
Spock - Neil deGrasse Tyson - Psycho Mantis
Unidentified Brunette - Zelda

So, as far as I can see there are only 3 more people to find now...

(Oh, before I forget - longtime lurker, first time poster here, hello everyone, and even I don't understand why I registered for the sake of this smartassery )

[Willowleafs]

Zelda could also be The lady Galadriël. But that is/was mere speculation the last time I read it here.