Book 2 – Page 51

[drachefly]

There is a difference between colloquial "proof" and logical proof. The latter is usually just induction with a huge number of examples behind it. It is ninety-nine-point-bar-over-nine percent likely to be correct simply from the massive number of examples you have backing it, but it isn't guaranteed to be, simply because there's no way to show that there isn't a counterexample out there somewhere.

(emphasis added)
If we're going to nitpick that much, you don't get away with using the bar, because that is equal to 100%.

Squishalot is right. An argument being logical does not mean that the argument is proof.

Amusingly, in the given argument, the conclusion is true even though neither the major nor minor premise is true.

[Smoker]

First off, being told a truth and not believing it is stupidity.

You guys do realise that you were originally talking about this, before you slid wildly off topic, right?

Oberon, look. what. you. have. done.

[atalex]

Again....without Parsons game breaking ploy....would Ossomer have connected him to Parson as Tram requested?

Probably, but Parson would be more likely to talk to Tram if Ossomer doesn't say "After a round of insult Tram wants to talk to you." and doesn't say "Tram tried to turn me". If Tram wanted to use Ossomer as a recommendation he should have tried NOT insulting and being serious. Or simply telling Ossomer to put him through with someone in authority.

He did ask to speak to Parson. He wasn't looking for an Alliance. The disagreement lies in whether or not he should have simply called Parson out of the blue and without giving Parson any reason to accept his call or believe him trust that Parson would talk to him instead of going through Ossomer and gettign Parson to accept a call from his own Warlord.

Unless Ossomer gives some sort of recommendation there is no reason for Parson to be more likely to talk to Tram simply because he got Ossomer to play messenger boy. On the other hand if Ossomer says Tram is being insulting or tried to get him to turn Parson will be less likely to take the call and more likely to conclude the parley was in bad faith.

I mentioned this two threads ago but I will repeat myself: There are no remotely plausible circumstances under which Parson should have accepted a thinkagram from Trammenis and he would have been monumentally stupid to have done so. Having suffered the effects of Kingworld, Parson knows or should at least suspect the presence of a thinkamancer-turnamancer link. If he then learns that the leadership of Jetstone is surprisingly insistent on communicating directly with him and that, shockingly, the leadership of Jetstone is open to some kind of negotiated truce despite their commanding position, he must assume that it's a trap, that the linkup is still active, and that Jetstone wants to use the thinkagram to launch a long-range thinkamancy and/or turnamancy attempt against him. Accordingly, he proceeds as planned: have Oss stall while they set up and engage the exploit. Taking Tram's call under those circumstances would be an example of Parson picking up the Idiot Ball.

[Aquillion]

I mentioned this two threads ago but I will repeat myself: There are no remotely plausible circumstances under which Parson should have accepted a thinkagram from Trammenis and he would have been monumentally stupid to have done so. Having suffered the effects of Kingworld, Parson knows or should at least suspect the presence of a thinkamancer-turnamancer link. If he then learns that the leadership of Jetstone is surprisingly insistent on communicating directly with him and that, shockingly, the leadership of Jetstone is open to some kind of negotiated truce despite their commanding position, he must assume that it's a trap, that the linkup is still active, and that Jetstone wants to use the thinkagram to launch a long-range thinkamancy and/or turnamancy attempt against him. Accordingly, he proceeds as planned: have Oss stall while they set up and engage the exploit. Taking Tram's call under those circumstances would be an example of Parson picking up the Idiot Ball.

You're assuming it's even possible to turn people via Thinkagram. What probably would have happened is he would have said "Hey, Maggie, is it possible to turn people via Thinkagram" and she'd say something like "I do not know the full powers of the Arkendish, but I do not believe so", at which point he'd do what he did the first time he contacted Charlie, and tell her to break things off at the first sign of anything suspicious.

[Lamech]

I mentioned this two threads ago but I will repeat myself: There are no remotely plausible circumstances under which Parson should have accepted a thinkagram from Trammenis and he would have been monumentally stupid to have done so. Having suffered the effects of Kingworld, Parson knows or should at least suspect the presence of a thinkamancer-turnamancer link. If he then learns that the leadership of Jetstone is surprisingly insistent on communicating directly with him and that, shockingly, the leadership of Jetstone is open to some kind of negotiated truce despite their commanding position, he must assume that it's a trap, that the linkup is still active, and that Jetstone wants to use the thinkagram to launch a long-range thinkamancy and/or turnamancy attempt against him. Accordingly, he proceeds as planned: have Oss stall while they set up and engage the exploit. Taking Tram's call under those circumstances would be an example of Parson picking up the Idiot Ball.

First problem, if Jetstone possesses some strange power to send spells through the thinkagrams Parson certainly doesn't seem be concerned; he is getting thinkagrams from the field of battle. Two, the kingworld caster has left the field of battle, and was talking to Jillian. Three, if Parson does want to be mildly paranoid he can simply have an archon thinkagram a stray unit in GK and relay messages like that. Four, if Tram has concluded for some reason GK will fear any sort of communication getting a alliance is impossible. Five as pointed out we have precedent for what Parson would do in this situation.
We don't have much in the way of evidence that Charlie can simply control people from afar. Suffering a large cost for a fear of a totally unseen ablity would be folly. Sure maybe have the archon act as a buffer, and have Maggie check for foul play, but what you suggest is pure paranoia.

[twhitt]

On another note entirely, who thinks that Vanna can cast Turn Uncroaked?

[Oberon]

First off, being told a truth and not believing it is stupidity.

Adressing the first point quoted: according to jetstone's so called logic, he probably doesn't have to do anything to prove his worth, being a prince is probably enough (from jetstone pov anyway)

True. There probably isn't anyone else who could have been appointed CWL without affronting Tram terribly, and possibly reducing his Loyalty and/or the Loyalty of other units. Jetstone does pop a lot of Warlords though, and given that Tram has been being a diplomat rather than a combatant there may be one or several warlords who out-level him. Unless by assigning a unit diplomatic duties you also give him the ability to earn experience from doing diplomatic things...

and adressing the second point, I know you are smart Oberon so I' m pretty sure you can phrase the truth vs stupidity idea a lot better... because right now it sound like you would alway know when you are told the truth... even from a deceptive and manipulative b*tch such as Charlie. Sometime the truth just won't look so right, you know, especialy from some mysterious mastermind. Imagine the common medieval peasant being told the earth is round, disbeleiving the truth would not be caused by stupidity (but admitedly this typical peasant is probably stupid anyway), but more likely would be caused by conditionnal factors such as education (or lack of), common sense or predispositions.

You phrased it much better than I. No character should be shown to never be able to be deceived, unless they have some magic helping them out. But the smart diplomat being given completely truthful information by Charlie and deciding that one statement was false while seemingly accepting the entire rest of the information and dossier at face value as being truthful, that is kind of odd, don't you think? When a character talks himself into disbelieving truthful statements, I tend to find them to have been fooled, even if only by themselves.

I mentioned this two threads ago but I will repeat myself: There are no remotely plausible circumstances under which Parson should have accepted a thinkagram from Trammenis and he would have been monumentally stupid to have done so.

I mentioned this a few times, but I will repeat myself: Plenty of plausible circumstances have been presented under which Parson would have accepted a thinkagram from Trammenis. You may choose to dismiss them all, that is your right. But you do not have the ability to define what is or is not plausible for anyone else. If nothing else, we have never (to my recollection) seen Parson refuse contact by anyone, ever. And we have seen that he likes to reach out and speak to the main players in a conflict. But if a 100% track record of being open to communications isn't enough for you to even consider that it might be plausible, see bolds below.

A shmoke und a pancake. You know, a flapjack und a shigarette? No? Shigar und a waffle? No? Pipe und a crepe? No? Bong und a blintz? No? Well, then there ish no pleashing you.

First off, being told a truth and not believing it is stupidity.

You guys do realise that you were originally talking about this, before you slid wildly off topic, right?

Oberon, look. what. you. have. done.

I seem to be good at this, even when I don't intend to be.

The speed of light is 299,792,458 meters per second. Exactly. Precisely. To a bajillion zeroes (or however many you want to stick on).

Through what medium? In a space bent by the presence of what amount of matter?

On another note entirely, who thinks that Vanna can cast Turn Uncroaked?

She's going to get a chance to give it a try, with Ansom.
Edit: Er, at least Turn Decrypted...

[atalex]

I mentioned this two threads ago but I will repeat myself: There are no remotely plausible circumstances under which Parson should have accepted a thinkagram from Trammenis and he would have been monumentally stupid to have done so. Having suffered the effects of Kingworld, Parson knows or should at least suspect the presence of a thinkamancer-turnamancer link. If he then learns that the leadership of Jetstone is surprisingly insistent on communicating directly with him and that, shockingly, the leadership of Jetstone is open to some kind of negotiated truce despite their commanding position, he must assume that it's a trap, that the linkup is still active, and that Jetstone wants to use the thinkagram to launch a long-range thinkamancy and/or turnamancy attempt against him. Accordingly, he proceeds as planned: have Oss stall while they set up and engage the exploit. Taking Tram's call under those circumstances would be an example of Parson picking up the Idiot Ball.

First problem, if Jetstone possesses some strange power to send spells through the thinkagrams Parson certainly doesn't seem be concerned; he is getting thinkagrams from the field of battle. Two, the kingworld caster has left the field of battle, and was talking to Jillian. Three, if Parson does want to be mildly paranoid he can simply have an archon thinkagram a stray unit in GK and relay messages like that. Four, if Tram has concluded for some reason GK will fear any sort of communication getting a alliance is impossible. Five as pointed out we have precedent for what Parson would do in this situation.
We don't have much in the way of evidence that Charlie can simply control people from afar. Suffering a large cost for a fear of a totally unseen ablity would be folly. Sure maybe have the archon act as a buffer, and have Maggie check for foul play, but what you suggest is pure paranoia.

See now, that's what I used to think. Then, I read 25 straight pages of comments suggesting that Tram was "holding the idiot ball" (complete with hyperlinks to the relevant TV Tropes page) because he failed to anticipate that Parson would come up with something completely unforeseen that would instantly take GK from "certain doom" to "probably going to win," and accordingly he wasted an entire 60 seconds bantering with his recently Decrypted brother when he should have been frantically thinkagramming Parson to beg him for an alliance. Consequently, he must be viewed as an abject failure as both diplomat and chief warlord.

If people are going to say Trammenis such an idiot that it reflects bad writing on the part of the author simply because he failed to anticipate something which has never been done before, then it only seems fair to me that every character be expected to constantly anticipate and prepare for heretofore impossible things lest they too be accused of carrying the idiot ball. If Tram is considered an idiot because it never occurred to him that GK would find a way to transition their flyers to the ground off-turn, then Parson should be thought an idiot if he doesn't suspect that the guys who just used a turnamancer-thinkamancer link (possibly even a trimancer link) might try to turn him via thinkagram. Sauce for the goose and all that.

[Oberon]

See now, that's what I used to think. Then, I read 25 straight pages of comments suggesting that Tram was "holding the idiot ball" (complete with hyperlinks to the relevant TV Tropes page) because he failed to anticipate that Parson would come up with something completely unforeseen that would instantly take GK from "certain doom" to "probably going to win," and accordingly he wasted an entire 60 seconds bantering with his recently Decrypted brother when he should have been frantically thinkagramming Parson to beg him for an alliance. Consequently, he must be viewed as an abject failure as both diplomat and chief warlord.

When you consistently misstate the position you disagree with it is very easy to make a point that appears to be valid, isn't it?

[decius]

I realize it would take a miracle for Trem to realize this (and I have already stated it before), but I still offer my previous action as a viable means of at least balancing the odds- Ending the turn.

If Trem can figure out that the dragons were harvested, he can end turn and remove from decrypting all of the dragons except the yellows (and possibly the one armored red). His own dead units should also de-pop (I think they vanish at end of turn, not at start of their next turn?), removing them as viable units for Wanda.

Seeing as how GK units can attack during Trem's turn, the opposite is also true.

End turn to remove 70+% of the available dragons and possibly most of your dead units.
Use the remaining tower spells (if any) on the remaining fliers (transelvito had this happen to them, so you can use it on other's turns).
Swarm the atrium with any heavies that can stand up to dragons and any leadership units (left) still capable of directing traffic, possibly Trem himself. Yellow dragons crap attacks will probably make them very vulnerable while they stay on the ground. If they decide to take off into the air, the only change in the situation is that wanda and the remaining fliers are now FAR weaker than they were a turn ago.

It would show a very impressive lateral thinking motion by Trem as he learns to cope with Parson's abilities and keeps the battle far more balanced than it is about to be. It also provides our Queen of Faq with the time needed to come back and further muck up the situation (should she wish it).

This works, but requires one adjustment: JS must join a Chalescomm-led alliance. They end their turn, and then (since all sides in an alliance share the sequence of the leader) they start their turn, performing cleansing.

[Smoker]

Then, I read 25 straight pages of comments suggesting that Tram was "holding the idiot ball" (complete with hyperlinks to the relevant TV Tropes page) because he failed to anticipate that Parson would come up with something completely unforeseen that would instantly take GK from "certain doom" to "probably going to win," and accordingly he wasted an entire 60 seconds bantering with his recently Decrypted brother when he should have been frantically thinkagramming Parson to beg him for an alliance. Consequently, he must be viewed as an abject failure as both diplomat and chief warlord.

As far as I'm aware, the above sentiments are at the very most, marginal among those who contributed in the discussion.

If people are going to say Trammenis such an idiot that it reflects bad writing on the part of the author...

I dont recall seeing anyone say that. I've seen one other poster refer to it as a plot-device which was out-of-character, but I dont think that equates to what you are saying here. If someone actually did post that it was "bad writing", again I'll point out that view can only be held by very, very few. They way you are phrasing this post makes it seem like your tarring everyone who doesn't agree with you with the same brush. Please respect that everyone here has a unique angle, and although they can often be dived roughly into two schools of thought, you should be careful how you address, or refer to, groups of posters.

In any case, and I direct this to anyone who feels tempted to take this issue up again: This topic has been discussed in previous threads, and left there. If we revive this issue again it will result in yet more repetition of previous statements, and I think the degree to which the issue has already been discussed shows us that those who are inclined to change their minds one way or the other have already done so, and those who have not, will not.

If anyone does think there's still meaningful discussion to be had on this point, I suggest we move it to Everything Else Erfword. Personally I would much rather explore newer territory, now that the comic has moved on a few pages.

In closing (I sincerely hope)
So Bob thinks Tram's an idiot, Larry thinks he's a genius, Sam thinks he's made a few mistakes and Sally thinks he's doing okay... thats fine with me, and I hope its fine with everyone else.


Now, this is more like it:

I realize it would take a miracle for Trem to realize this (and I have already stated it before), but I still offer my previous action as a viable means of at least balancing the odds- Ending the turn.

This works, but requires one adjustment: JS must join a Chalescomm-led alliance. They end their turn, and then (since all sides in an alliance share the sequence of the leader) they start their turn, performing cleansing.

I agree that it would totally change the layout of the battle, but I think the biggest problem is getting Charlie to effectively give up a turn. Whats more you only have a few seconds to state your case, because it wont take Wanda very long to raise a few dwagons, and when she does, she'll be applying the decrypted bonus to them, so they'll be even stronger than before.

And as a general rule, allowing Parson to have his turn can be assumed to be a bad thing. If this is what he can do with zero options, what can he do when its actually his turn? But still I'm interested to play with the theory - its a good one.

So lets assume that Charlie allied and Ended turn - its now GK's turn, and all the incapacitated/croaked units have depopped..

If say, Archers+Cubins+Towerdefenses > GK Archons

and Cloth Golems+Ace+The Copywright+The Healomancer > Wanda + Jack + Decrypted Jetstone forces + Remaining GK riders + Surviving Dwagon + The Decrypted Red

It could work, but WWPD?

[barawn]

E=mcc is somewhat of a special case. It is proven if one assumes relativity to be true.

It's actually not "proven" or "disproven" at all. It's the definition of rest energy, that's all.

That's why I said it was a special case. If you accept the current definition of rest energy, it is proven.

But E=mc^2 is a definition, not a theory. It's like Newton's second law, F=ma - it's not a theory, it's the definition of force.

Exactly. They're proven if you accept that our current understanding of the universe is correct, because they're the definitions we use to model that understanding of the universe. The only way to disprove E=mcc or F=ma would be to completely overturn our understanding of physics.

No, you're missing the point. There is no other definition of 'force' or 'rest energy.' Nothing could disprove them. At all. In any world, Earth, Erfworld, Monkeyworld - it doesn't matter - F will still equal ma (more precisely, dp/dt) and rest energy will still be mc^2. They're just mathematical definitions. Whether or not they're useful is an entirely separate question (E = mc^2 is useless for basic low-speed physics, for instance, but it's still true, because, again, it's just a definition).

In fact, it somewhat gets back to the "all horses are black" argument, and back to Erfworlders. If all you've ever seen are black horses, and then someone comes along with a white one, you can perfectly well say "that's not a horse," because, quite possibly to you, horses are black, and the white thing that looks like a horse is, well, something else. It's easier to understand if you imagine that the person who believes all horses are black has a different language than the newcomer.

[Squishalot]

I agree that it would totally change the layout of the battle, but I think the biggest problem is getting Charlie to effectively give up a turn. Whats more you only have a few seconds to state your case, because it wont take Wanda very long to raise a few dwagons, and when she does, she'll be applying the decrypted bonus to them, so they'll be even stronger than before.

Benefit: Wiping out the incapacitated units. No change to croaked units they won't de-pop until Jetstone's conventional turn (potentially.... unless you think that the accelerated turn = accelerated de-pop'ing? Booping hell...)

Cost: Charlie demands Jetstone's entire production for the next 50 turns or so. (??? Dream up the wildest, most insanely outrageous price, then double it.)

It's questionable whether Wanda actually needs LoS to the corpses to decrypt. We've seen her mass decrypt in the past, after all.

[Smoker]

Indeed, and I think its reasonable to say that when she decrypted the Jetstone army, most of them would have been under a pile of rubble. We didn't see any body-excavation work being done... of course that doesn't mean it didnt happen, but what we have seen leads me to think that decryption is a non-target spell. Just fire it to the left, and any bodies to the left get up again.

So I believe she can just wave the 'pliers around the hex(or zone, if you like) and raise everything all at once.

[fjolnir]

The only problem with the jetstone/charlescomm alliance to cleanse the uncroaked when the turns start is the fact that Allied sides take their turn on the side with the lowest side in the initiative order, which ruins the plan because jetstone goes last, the only thing they can hope to do is grovel to charlie, pay the rest of their side's wealth in fees and hope he's willing to mop up at dawn and leave them with what almost resembles a side when done.

[╒╦╧╬╩╦╦╛]

and adressing the second point, I know you are smart Oberon so I' m pretty sure you can phrase the truth vs stupidity idea a lot better... because right now it sound like you would alway know when you are told the truth... even from a deceptive and manipulative b*tch such as Charlie. Sometime the truth just won't look so right, you know, especialy from some mysterious mastermind. Imagine the common medieval peasant being told the earth is round, disbeleiving the truth would not be caused by stupidity (but admitedly this typical peasant is probably stupid anyway), but more likely would be caused by conditionnal factors such as education (or lack of), common sense or predispositions.

You phrased it much better than I. No character should be shown to never be able to be deceived, unless they have some magic helping them out. But the smart diplomat being given completely truthful information by Charlie and deciding that one statement was false while seemingly accepting the entire rest of the information and dossier at face value as being truthful, that is kind of odd, don't you think? When a character talks himself into disbelieving truthful statements, I tend to find them to have been fooled, even if only by themselves.

Now that you mention it I may have overlooked it a bit, but I used think he didn't believe the dossier and that he wanted to check "what" the real Parson was instead of taking Charlie's info at face value (and trying to make hypothesis about the reasons of Charlie generous gift of said info), making him suspect everything instead of one odd affirmation (Parson will screw you if you dare to parley). I tought he wasn't taking anything given freely by Charlie as truth and that he wanted to know why Charlie would give him freely such informations (true or false). It may be a possible explanation of Tramenis' actions or I may, have missed something and thus have acheived dubbious conclusions.

[Smoker]

The only problem with the jetstone/charlescomm alliance to cleanse the uncroaked when the turns start is the fact that Allied sides take their turn on the side with the lowest side in the initiative order, which ruins the plan because jetstone goes last, the only thing they can hope to do is grovel to charlie, pay the rest of their side's wealth in fees and hope he's willing to mop up at dawn and leave them with what almost resembles a side when done.

Dawn, yes! That ruins it. They will have night before GK's turn, during which Wanda can decrypt everything.

Yep, I'd be running about now.

[Squishalot]

The only problem with the jetstone/charlescomm alliance to cleanse the uncroaked when the turns start is the fact that Allied sides take their turn on the side with the lowest side in the initiative order, which ruins the plan because jetstone goes last, the only thing they can hope to do is grovel to charlie, pay the rest of their side's wealth in fees and hope he's willing to mop up at dawn and leave them with what almost resembles a side when done.

Dawn, yes! That ruins it. They will have night before GK's turn, during which Wanda can decrypt everything.

Yep, I'd be running about now.

Is that verified in canon? It makes sense, certainly, to avoid exploits like what we're discussing, and explains why barbarians like Jillian didn't hold up the turn order.

It's questionable whether Wanda can cast at night if not engaged first (e.g. casting off turn). The first instance of decryption occurred on GK's turn; every instance that has occurred off-turn has been after an opposition has engaged the stack (KC, red dwagon this comic). If Jetstone ends turn and Wanda isn't attacked by any stray infantry, does this mean that she won't be able to decrypt? We don't know whether decryption is an off-turn allowable spell like baffles and thinkagrams and so forth.

If she can't decrypt off-turn without being engaged, it's possible that Charlie could come in and mop up before she gets a chance to do anything in the morning.

[the_tick_rules]

maybe decrypting doesn't count as casting? I'm assuming it's not but heck I could easily be wrong. It's possible Charlie could intervene, but I dunno if what's left of his archon force is really a contender in this battle. I don't think he can ship forces that quickly there if he doesn't, can he?

[Atomic]

Goodness, you guys sure know how to talk about nothing. Don't get me wrong, you do it well, but black horses and Sasquatches? Seriously? Really?

Loved the update, of course. As far as Xin's art goes, I think the curving backgrounds are all part of her artistic prerogative; it adds a bit of flavor to the panels and changes the typical view. Dwagon placement is...suspect at best...but again, it's part of her artistic license. My only issue is where the Black Dwagons have gone during this siege. I hope they haven't been RetCon'd out!

As far as Adam's arm; I'd like to think it'll regrow. From the impression the Summer Intermission gave us with Wrigley, I was one to think of the prisoners as being beheaded, one-by-one. Although, I'll be the first to admit it might add a bit of a twist to things if Adam comes back with only one arm. I could see, because of his uselessness, him being assigned to Parson over the upcoming turns. Adam functioned well with Tramennis, so I can only imagine he'd work well alongside Parson. Of course, my hope is that Tramennis is Decrypted before the end of the battle, but that's just because I want him on our team. Well, I mean, Gobwin Knob's team, not our team. He already appears like he's on our team in that manner, but whatever.

Question for all you black-horse-rs out there: If I were to examine every breed of penguin on the planet, say that "penguins cannot fly", then write a book on it...would I be wrong if, ten years down the road, a flying penguin appears? I honestly don't have a side on it and I'm not trying to play devils advocate or anything; I'm just wondering where the relativity of truth, verses knowledge, comes into play with the different opinions out there.

Also... Regardless of night, we have no way of knowing whether or not the lights turn off when Jetstone ends turn. In addition, Casting has nothing to do with being 'engaged' or not. If it's not your turn, the only other prerequisite we've seen is that an enemy is in the same hex... It'd be silly to assume that because an enemy isn't attacking you you can't cast. The use of Kingworld was off-turn, yet usable (like a dozen other spells we've seen) because an enemy was in the hex at the time of casting... If Wanda were unable to cast in what I'm gonna call an "Active Hex" (Ace is rolling over in his grace right now), this would be the first instance I'd be genuinely upset with Rob. It'd be a total Du Ex Machina for Charlie and contrast everything we've seen so far... But whatever. Ce La Vie.