Summer Updates - 037

[hanglekuk]

This move suggests to me that Don is making very long term plans, and believes Faq can stay out of the war at least until the new heir pops. By keeping Jillian's army much smaller than it would normally be, he is insuring that Jillian won't attack Stanley until much later than she would have otherwise have done. He's holding Faq in reserve, while putting the burden of fighting Stanley on Transylvito and the other members of the formal Royal alliance.

Well put, Don is very very smart. There might be another reason involved too - for now Faq is financed by Don and there is no intelligence about Stanley, besides he's retaking cities as fast as possible. You don't have to pop the gwiffons unless you absolutely sure they will be needed (You paying for them and their upkeep). And 60 turns delay should give enough information to decide which units should be popped in Faq.

[atteSmythe]

Something tells me that Jillian is going to be very grateful that she didn't go with her original naming impulse.

[quindraco]

This lends credence to the theory that Parson is a signamancer, I think; before, we had no basis for guessing what kind of hippie he is (assuming Janis wasn't lying), but it strikes me as plausible that his mindset fits differentiating between what appears obvious and what's really true, and manipulating the obvious. It fits his entire fighting style, in fact - see his trick from the tunnels.

Of course, he could still be a florist or a matchmaker (the official term I just invented for a date-a-mancer), so who knows. I do like getting more information about any mancy.

[imgran]

All this still doesn't explain why he wouldn't have forced Jill to reveal the location of Faq and be done with it or croak her when Faq was in sight and have Caesar create new TV cities at the Faq sites.

It really depends on what you're after. When it comes to popping heirs, FAQ doing it presents fewer liabilities and obligations to Transylvito if the heir is unacceptable. It creates a layer of protection from the worst case scenario.

If the heir is unacceptable, send him into battle and Uriah him. Then tell FAQ to try again.

Of course, TV could still do it itself, but this is also a protection from whatever loyalty consequences stem from murdering your own heir.

[fehler]

I think this is a direct reply to the thoughts Jillian had when "accepting" the position of Queen: Faq's three cities, popping gwiffins and megalogwiffs on a full war footing. Don sees her doing this, and sees that her defenses are lacking. She needs to slow down, to keep her from attacking too soon, without knowing the threat, and forcing her to get an heir is one way to do that.

It also highlights why some units are "promoted" rather than "popped" to their positions. Schmuckers vs. turns.

[Glenn]

If Don really is planning to make a Faq heir the heir to Transylvito, then I'd say there is a very good chance that the current heir, Caesar, will try to launch a coup sometime during the next 60 turns. It's even possible that he might try to make a deal with Stanley. This is increasingly becoming an ideological war, between the supporters of Royalty, and those, like Stanley, who claim that Royals don't have a right to rule. Since Caesar isn't Royal himself, he would probably agree with Stanley that Royals have no Titanic mandate to rule.

[Anton Gaist]

If Don really is planning to make a Faq heir the heir to Transylvito, then I'd say there is a very good chance that the current heir, Caesar, will try to launch a coup sometime during the next 60 turns. It's even possible that he might try to make a deal with Stanley. This is increasingly becoming an ideological war, between the supporters of Royalty, and those, like Stanley, who claim that Royals don't have a right to rule. Since Caesar isn't Royal himself, he would probably agree with Stanley that Royals have no Titanic mandate to rule.

True, but highly doubtful. As soon as he stopped being the heir, Caesar would no longer be able to act against TV in any way. And I have the feeling that as soon as the existence of Decrypted units becomes public knowledge no one will want to deal with GK.

[Roketter]

When Jillian talked to the Don, he mentioned he had some talks with Ansom's father, the king of Jetstone, and that there are some things that only royals can talk about.

I wonder if Jetstone has anything to do about it... surely they'll want to avenge Ansom just as much as Jillian wanted to.

And ther's also his whole talk about "Royalty matters". It wasn't really necesary to convince Jillian so the Don could have been mentioning something greater than just making Jillian asume her title again ? Perhaps the royals think it's up to them to destroy Stanley once and for all ? Or maybe they want to restore the royals and kingdoms wich Stanley erradicated.

Whatever the case, if The Don thinks he can waste his ally's next 60 turns in poping a heir, perhaps the royal factions have much greater armies that they haven't yet used, and they expect royalty leadership bonuses and skills in battle will be more decisive than just a few more gwiffon units. Using a great heir's bonus (Or Jillian's) might make a more significant contribution by Faq than just building units that will likely get uncroaked/decrypted by Wanda.

[Liam]

My expectation is that the next 60 turns will be: TV, popping out as many units as possible, while Faq creates it's heir.

Once the heir is popped then TV will consolidate alliances and units to take on whatever forces are out of GK. It is plausible that Don will ask Jillian to go into the field and lead the armies of TV, w/ Caesar and its alliances. While the Royal heir can continue on Faq while Jillian’s is out waging war (cause let’s face it, she doesn’t belong in the palace – she belongs in the field).

I believe Don understands that the only way to really beat this new threat is to stack bonus on top of bonus. Because lets face it, Ansom and his +33 is a little extreme. He isnt really even buffed yet

i don’t know who to cheer for. GK or Jillian.

[DevilDan]

I'm going to start a deadpool on some of these theories... and put all my money on the next update.

[Anton Gaist]

Whatever the case, if The Don thinks he can waste his ally's next 60 turns in poping a heir, perhaps the royal factions have much greater armies that they haven't yet used, and they expect royalty leadership bonuses and skills in battle will be more decisive than just a few more gwiffon units. Using a great heir's bonus (Or Jillian's) might make a more significant contribution by Faq than just building units that will likely get uncroaked/decrypted by Wanda.

The definitely do. TV only sent Vinnie and his bats, not a single Goyle or Skank. Jetstone committed the most units, but I highly doubt that number represented more than 20% of their total fighting force, tops.

As for ordering Wanda to pop an heir, I think it has to do with Don King using Faq as a rallying banner for the other royal factions. It was nearly destroyed once already, and if anything happened to Wanda before her heir was popped, that royal line would disappear for good. Sure, any one of TV's warlords could reclaim the site and rebuild, but it wouldn't be Faq Royalty.

[DevilDan]

I´m troubled by the assumption that Don King is just thinking about a straight battle. I think that there's a lot more groundwork that he feels he needs to lay before even committing to a course of action.

[moose o death]

everyone should keep in mind as far as any side is concerned GK has as many units as jillian. which is why they are so amazed they are taking cities again. when the word finally does get out proper as to whats happening then the panicked retaliations start. some small kingdoms will get wiped out. but when GK hits the bigger sides they will get pummeled. decryption is only good if there is corpses to decrypt.

[DevilDan]

everyone should keep in mind as far as any side is concerned GK has as many units as jillian. which is why they are so amazed they are taking cities again. when the word finally does get out proper as to whats happening then the panicked retaliations start. some small kingdoms will get wiped out. but when GK hits the bigger sides they will get pummeled. decryption is only good if there is corpses to decrypt.

It all makes me wonder what Stanley's plans are now, or if they're just vague "take over Erf" fantasies. If so, what is Wanda's angle? Ansom is just a "believer" and will go with whatever he's told.

As to how strong GK could get now, think about it this way: instead of having to slow down after taking a city (because of troops lost and because of the need to garrison said city), the GK forces will actually gain momentum as they amass a greater and greater number of cost-free units. Remember, GK is stronger after every single battle that it wins. Every city means more troops, and free upkeep means a complete upheaval of conventional military capabilities on Erf.

[HandofShadows]

I'm going to start a deadpool on some of these theories... and put all my money on the next update.

Shouldn't that be a "Croakpool"?

[gameboy1234]

As to how strong GK could get now, think about it this way: instead of having to slow down after taking a city (because of troops lost and because of the need to garrison said city), the GK forces will actually gain momentum as they amass a greater and greater number of cost-free units. Remember, GK is stronger after every single battle that it wins. Every city means more troops, and free upkeep means a complete upheaval of conventional military capabilities on Erf.

Not quite, I think. Remember GK needs to leave behind a garrison to guard the city. If GK loses even one decrypted unit in the assault, that's one less unit for the next assault, assuming they decrypted and use the old garrison for their new garrison.

Of course, if GK seizes cities, they'll be able to pop more regular units, and use those as garrison. But I'm seeing the Akenpliers as a kind of force multiplier for regular armies, not something that can exist on its own, because of the attrition of decrypted units themselves. If you use the Arkenpliers after you kill a force with regular troops of your own, then you gain a big bonus. But if you use only decrypted, you slowly wear down the decrypted units you have, because you will loose some. You still need a big war machine, lots of cities popping units, to fuel the Arkenpliers, or their advantage is much less.

This assumes that you can't decrypt or uncroak a decrypted unit. If you can, all bets are off.

[raphfrk]

Not quite, I think. Remember GK needs to leave behind a garrison to guard the city. If GK loses even one decrypted unit in the assault, that's one less unit for the next assault, assuming they decrypted and use the old garrison for their new garrison.

Of course, if GK seizes cities, they'll be able to pop more regular units, and use those as garrison.

Right, and then you can move the decrypted unit to the strike force, as they are replaced by regular units. Regular troops are better as garrison than decrypted, as decrypted only get a bonus if Wanda is around. Thus as much as possible you want decrypted in the strike force.

The garrisons might be a weakness for GK. Ironically, being defended poorly makes them less valuable once captured.

[gameboy1234]

Right, and then you can move the decrypted unit to the strike force, as they are replaced by regular units.

But not immediately, which was my point.

I play a lot of Sid Meier games (Civilization, Alpha Centauri) and this is a common problem when you build a huge stack and start rolling through enemy cities. Each city you conquer, you need to leave about two units behind to hold it against counter-attack. You can start building a garrison right away, but it takes a couple of turns, at least. And cities that have just been conquered are kinda messed up, and often need some infrastructure right away, because something was destroyed in the attack, or because "unrest" in the population makes governing more difficult.

Eventually you can stabilize your conquered city with infrastructure and new garrison, and move your old attack units out, but it does take a while. You can "rush" build stuff too, units and infrastructure, but that takes a lot of cash to do repeatedly, so you can't normally keep rush building up for long.

So the end result is that your stack eventually runs out of steam and has to start playing defense in the cities you just conquered.

[Angband]

The discussion of the decrypted force dynamic reminds me of playing Risk. You could get a big stack of armies and roll along through several wins on one turn, but your stack would get progressively smaller after every battle, not only through armies lost but from having to leave armies behind in the spaces you conquered. The same is true in Erfworld, as a conquering army would have to leave a garrison behind, making their army weaker as they roll along. (I see gameboy1234 made the same point about Civilization while I was typing this).

Wanda and the Decrypted do not have this problem. Defeated enemy units are converted, so you wind up with a garrison as strong as the one you just defeated. Strong and fast enemy units can also be added to the strike force, and all the members of the strike force are leveling up as well (making the reasonable assumption that Decrypted, like Uncroaked, can gain levels). As long as Wanda's loss ratio is 1:1 or better, her strike force will get stronger with every battle. The increase is also multiplicative -- the stronger the strike force is, the more overwhelming the victories will be, and the stronger the strike force will become.

We also don't know if croaked Decrypted can be re-decrypted or not. If that is the case, then as long as Wanda's side wins, the strike force can only gain strength. In which case it becomes the Katamari Damacy of armies -- keep rolling over progressively larger and larger things until eventually there will be nothing you can't go over.

All of which doesn't make for a very good story. So my guess for what's going to happen (storywise) is...

Spoiler: show

With Faq reestablished, when Wanda comes face to face with Jillian she will face a loyalty check with a huge penalty (queen to her former side; guilt over guiding Stanley to conquer Faq, and her personal affection for Jillian). This will result in her leaving Gobwin Knob along with all the Decrypted. Book 2 then becomes how Parson manages to save GK from Jillian seeking revenge.

[bathysphere]

Eh. Since Don doesn't seem too thrilled about Stanley, I'd figured the plan was for Jillian to pop an heir, to for someone to crunch Stanley, and have Jillian's heir split off and start up a new side with its capital in GK. Royals looking out for royals, don'cha know.