Summer Updates - 039

[raphfrk]

if Wanda was "destined" to attune to the arkenpliers that seems to negate the possibility of anyone else attuning to them, no matter how many tried. so even if every warlord, caster, piker, sourmander, whatever, tried to attune to the pliers, it wouldn't work as long as wanda is alive.

Each tool might have a chance of picking the "destined-one" from all of the units alive. Once it "locks on", it stays locked on until that unit croaks and also probably increases that unit's luck stat.

The implication with Wanda's destiny was that he was protected by the prophesy from death.

[DevilDan]

I wouldn't put it past Parson to interpert
"Tell me the odds that learning what happened to my Archons right now will be worth giving up those calculations in the future."
creatively. The best thing for Parson to have done would be to make certain 'assumptions' about the value of the calculations, and about the value of the information, and base his result on those assumptions.

Then, having given what he knows to be worthless information, imply that he is now better than he actually is. Now Charlie has a peice of inaccurate information, and he thinks he paid for it.

This assumes that he can knowingly lie to Charlie about the results of his calculations or even lie indirectly by manipulating the input or the phrasing of the question. Charlie must surely be smarter than to give him that sort of room. Anyway... that only means that Charlie "wasted" a single question: if he had manipulated the question to increase the percentage significantly—a mean trick, to be sure—Parson would have stood a chance of getting Charlie to give up all his questions for something that, let's face it, Charlie is probably already pretty close to sussing out.

[Pax]

if Wanda was "destined" to attune to the arkenpliers that seems to negate the possibility of anyone else attuning to them, no matter how many tried. so even if every warlord, caster, piker, sourmander, whatever, tried to attune to the pliers, it wouldn't work as long as wanda is alive.

Not necessarily true. They maybe COULD attune to them ... until the very moment when Fate had decided they should become Wanda's.

Then that prior unit would simply ... croak. Or disband. Or be captured (and the pliers siezed). Or be smart, and hand them over. *shrug*

[Doctor Grumpus]

I don't know if this has been said, but the limitations of the bracers can readily be tested.

Two cups, one ball. Jack puts the ball under one cup without Parson seeing it.

Parson turns around and calculates the likelihood that the ball is under cup number 1. It should be 50% (or perhaps less, since Jack may be up to tricking Parson and he didn't place the ball under either one. But let's discount that for now).

Then Jack lifts up the cup with the ball for Parson to see.

Parson recalculates the odds: If it is the same as he previous answer, then it's more mathamancy.
If the answer changes to more certitude, then it is predictamancy (if I'm understanding those forms of magic correctly).

At least, that's what I would do: I'd want to know how much the bracers rely on my own information of the world.

[Hari Seldon]

Awesome experiment there.

Though I believe Predictamancy is predicting the future (ex: Wanda's "Fate" as told by a Predictamancer), and doesn't involve probabilities at all (at least Wanda thinks that her Fate is 100% certain or else she wouldn't have sold out her own city (Faq) for a say 80% chance to get a Tool, that would be ridiculous).

So the possibilities would be:
1. Mathamancy bracer (the NAME of Parson's pracer y'know) that does probability calculations simply on Erfworld Physics
2. Mathamancy bracer does probability calculations based on Erfworld Physics and what Parson knows

or my favorite, 3rd option:
3. Mathamancy bracer that does probability calculations based on Erfworld Physics as well as "inside information" about where the pieces actually are (like Players in a tabletop game knowing a whole lot about every single Side playing that game - though perhaps not everything ex: hidden units might be cards face down or something).

If the Mathamancy bracer was option #3, it could substitute for the Lookamancer in the Eyetable setup. That would be awesomeness.

[Doctor Grumpus]

Yes, I know the bracers are Mathamancy, but some posts back, there was some questions/theories raised about whether it calculated only knowledge that Parson had access to, or whether it calculated true (Erfworld) information, beyond what Parson would know.

This test would be one step in teasing that out.

And I think its open question the degree to which Mathamancy becomes Predictamancy: Is Predictamancy just Mathamancy at 100%?

[TheWombat]

all things are restored to full capacity at turns start

Except for consumables. A scroll doesn't regain it's use. Food doesn't become whole again. Gems that were mined this turn and turned into Shmuckers don't reappear in the mountain next turn. A battery could technically be a consumable and not technically a part of Parson's raiment like his sock. It could be a loan from the spell that created him, gifting him the ability to make the complex calculations needed at the moment, until it feels that he should be able to do them on his own. I could be wrong, but that's just how I see it.

[DevilDan]

"Numbers" are one of the essential elements of what makes Erf Erf. And Fate is a real force, apparently. We should be very hesitant to make assumptions regarding the interrelationships between these forces and their effects.

[Lord Kasavin]

I don't know if this has been said, but the limitations of the bracers can readily be tested.

Two cups, one ball. Jack puts the ball under one cup without Parson seeing it.

Parson turns around and calculates the likelihood that the ball is under cup number 1. It should be 50% (or perhaps less, since Jack may be up to tricking Parson and he didn't place the ball under either one. But let's discount that for now).

Then Jack lifts up the cup with the ball for Parson to see.

Parson recalculates the odds: If it is the same as he previous answer, then it's more mathamancy.
If the answer changes to more certitude, then it is predictamancy (if I'm understanding those forms of magic correctly).

At least, that's what I would do: I'd want to know how much the bracers rely on my own information of the world.

I think the answer to the experiment would depend less on the bracer and more on the question itself. If the Question is "What are the odds the ball is under cup 2 given that its not under cup 1?," then the answer would be 100%. If its "What are the odds that the ball is under cup 2 [assuming nothing about either cup]?," then the answer would still be 50%. Now, the bracer seems to understand understood facts. So, Parson could ask it the second question while meaning the first and still come up 100% as the answer. Maybe. It's all quite vague.

[moose o death]

if Wanda was "destined" to attune to the arkenpliers that seems to negate the possibility of anyone else attuning to them, no matter how many tried. so even if every warlord, caster, piker, sourmander, whatever, tried to attune to the pliers, it wouldn't work as long as wanda is alive.

Not necessarily true. They maybe COULD attune to them ... until the very moment when Fate had decided they should become Wanda's.

Then that prior unit would simply ... croak. Or disband. Or be captured (and the pliers siezed). Or be smart, and hand them over. *shrug*

if you've ever read hitch hiker's part 5 it's quite easy to control fate to achieve a goal.

but you need to be open minded to the genius of the hitch hikers guide. there is alot about erfworld that reminds me of the adventures of arthur dent.

[Danetrix]

Thinking about what Charlie must know with what he has.

He knows, (like all the other sides, pg 138, panel 6 onwards) that when the multihex dirtamancy trap set-off, he lost all his units that were in that sphere. As in, they were croaked.

Then, he sees that his units again, units that he is aware he lost in GK, (as he knows them by name he would know which ones specifically burned to the ground) when flying too close to Wanda's strike force.

Assuming he has a visual on them, (as he recognised them, or was relayed what they looked like) this would seem very odd to him, as they would not have appeared uncroaked, but in "that black rainment"

So, what would he think from here?
If they are uncroaked, it is not in its usual form. This has the implication of "what the heck is this new trick Parson has up his sleeve?"

So, from that point, he asked Parson.
Looking at this snippit:

CharlsNChrg:What were they doing in that black raiment, fighting for Gobwin Knob?
LordHamster: If you read that question again, Charlie, you'll notice that it answers itself.
CharlsNChrg: Cute.
CharlsNChrg: You know what I mean.

I took Charlie's last comment to mean, he was more asking, "What were they doing alive and well and fighting for GK, no less?"

In short, Charlie has no idea what this form of Croakamancy is, (as the uncroaked Archon and the decrypted Archon look very different) or where it came from.

Ways he could figure it out? Ask Jetstone. They must have records of how the Arkenpliers fell into their hands to begin with. Maybe something in there said about the Decrypt effect. At the very least, he would discover they do not hold the Arkenpliers anymore, an artifact he was seeking. From there, he may put the theroy together that the Pliers which are an effective uncroaked weapon and this new type of Croakamancy may be related.

Edit: Charlie also knew that the pliers were at GK, so he might not even have to think that hard, if he knew their unattuned ability. If he did not, then it is back to asking Jetstone.

[moose o death]

the pliers were effective against the only units stanley threw at ansom enmasse. and even that was only a most. not an all.

your correct in the rest of the assumptions though charlie KNOWS the pliers were on site. and he knows the previous wielder is now croaked. he wont know HOW the tool made his archons switch sides. just that, they are the cause.

keep in mind if stanley's side attuned the arkentool that could have caused the dirtamancy trap (epic dirtamncy ability) it could have been a foolamancy trap and all sides were informed they had lost all troops where in fact they hadn't. epic level thinkamancy trap that mass converted all troops to GK. the pliers are NOT alligned to craoakmancy re read page 22-25 one of them has the magic misquoted lines. and the "sound effect" for using the pliers on uncroaked, is essentially dusting the uncroaked, it also ZAPPS dwagons so don't get too excited about it's combat abilities from when ansom had them.

[raphfrk]

I think the answer to the experiment would depend less on the bracer and more on the question itself. If the Question is "What are the odds the ball is under cup 2 given that its not under cup 1?," then the answer would be 100%. If its "What are the odds that the ball is under cup 2 [assuming nothing about either cup]?," then the answer would still be 50%. Now, the bracer seems to understand understood facts. So, Parson could ask it the second question while meaning the first and still come up 100% as the answer. Maybe. It's all quite vague.

What Parson should ask is something about the current state of a hex that he knows nothing about. If he doesn't get a 100% or 0% answer, then it doesn't seem to work as lookamancy.

Ofc, there was a suggestion by someone that Erf works like (or uses) quantum mechanics. A hex doesn't have a state until someone enters the hex . This would mean that when an Archon enters the hex, the random roll is taken to decide if a dwagon popped there, and not when the day starts.

This leads to more complexities about who/what counts as an observer. Is it only Parson, units from GK, or units from any side. I think any GK (or whatever side controls the bracer) would be the correct choice for probabilities for Parson. That gives pretty much the same result as the bracer using all info Parson and/or GK has access to.

A scroll doesn't regain it's use. Food doesn't become whole again. Gems that were mined this turn and turned into Shmuckers don't reappear in the mountain next turn. A battery could technically be a consumable and not technically a part of Parson's raiment like his sock.

That leads to a recommended question "What is the expected number of questions before the watch/bracer stops working due to one or both of the parts wearing out?". Before that he should ask "what is the probability per question that the bracer can wear out?" and "what is the probability per question that the watch will wear out?".

The way the bracer is arranged, it seems to protect the watch from having to be moved. Also, if the bracer directly communicates with the IC (rather than using the buttons), the watch would last much longer. Also, if it is a battery thing, then he can extend the lifetime by removing the battery, but that could do more damage than being worth it.

Finally, it is possible that even if the battery runs out, he might be able to use magic to provide alternative power. That hammer allows lightening, so one of the caster types might cover electricity.

[moose o death]

IF the bracer IS limited in use it would still be per turn. eg 5 calcs per turn

[raphfrk]

IF the bracer IS limited in use it would still be per turn. eg 5 calcs per turn

Alternatively, it might have a 0.1% chance of breaking per turn, no matter how many questions.

[falard5]

ROFLMAO @ charlie, that was a big whoops, his reaction to parsons last message was frickin awsome, when i read that i had tears running down my cheeks i was laughing so hard

[Danetrix]

keep in mind if stanley's side attuned the arkentool that could have caused the dirtamancy trap (epic dirtamncy ability) it could have been a foolamancy trap and all sides were informed they had lost all troops where in fact they hadn't. epic level thinkamancy trap that mass converted all troops to GK.

I thought of the above as another conclusion that Charlie may draw, but stumbled on that I would think that Charlie, whom appears to have an Arkentool which is related to Thinkamancy, would be more likely to pull something like mass conversion off then a simple lone Thinkamancer. A linked Thinkamancer/Foolermancer then, could be a case?

This idea also would rely on whether Charlie did not have any chance to know/discover that Stanley had his foolermancer with him for that mountain pass against Jillian, Vinney and TV, which would put the foolermancer out of action here. Of which Ansom knew of one (not only one though, there is a difference. We're yet to see a case for a side having multiple casters of the same *ancy, though) from that Faq sacking.

[MarbitChow]

Ofc, there was a suggestion by someone that Erf works like (or uses) quantum mechanics. A hex doesn't have a state until someone enters the hex . This would mean that when an Archon enters the hex, the random roll is taken to decide if a dwagon popped there, and not when the day starts.

Technically, the dwagon is an observer.
If a dwagon popped, the state of the hex is now established.
If no dwagon popped, the hex is still unknown.

[joosy]

ugh .. all these debates about Schrodinger's dwagons makes my head hurt..

I think we are overthinking it. Based on the 'fact' that there is a 1 in 200 chance a feral dwagon will pop and based on the number of reachable mountain hexes around GK, there is a chance that there are anywhere from zero to 3 dwagons in those hexes on any given turn. Send out the archons to pinpoint if there are any an in which hexes and then send out Stanley. It should be just that simple. But alas, we are nerds. and mathy ones at that

on a completely unrelated note.. I wonder if Charlie was trying to see how close he could get to GK to do some aerial spying. 'just passing through' HA. Likely story. The 'how much for passage' was probably just a ploy to see if he could get units close enough to observe GK so he can sell that information to the highest bidder(s). If I was Parson I would viciously safeguard the knowledge of the arkentools, their attuning to Wanda, and anything related to Decryption.

[raphfrk]

ugh .. all these debates about Schrodinger's dwagons makes my head hurt..

Was going to make the same reference .

I think we are overthinking it. Based on the 'fact' that there is a 1 in 200 chance a feral dwagon will pop and based on the number of reachable mountain hexes around GK, there is a chance that there are anywhere from zero to 3 dwagons in those hexes on any given turn. Send out the archons to pinpoint if there are any an in which hexes and then send out Stanley. It should be just that simple. But alas, we are nerds. and mathy ones at that

That isn't the issue. The issue if what represents the "given" part when he does probabilities.

If the bracer only has access to what Parson (or maybe GK) knows, then he can't use it for lookamancy. If it has access to Erfworld's underlying data, then it is even more massively power.

The collapse of the wave function part of QM represents a similar effect. Once you know something (due to an observation), then that fact becomes fixed.

It could be implemented that wild life isn't simulated unless a unit enters the hex. Once the dwagon becomes a GK unit, it gets to count as an observer.

on a completely unrelated note.. I wonder if Charlie was trying to see how close he could get to GK to do some aerial spying. 'just passing through' HA. Likely story. The 'how much for passage' was probably just a ploy to see if he could get units close enough to observe GK so he can sell that information to the highest bidder(s). If I was Parson I would viciously safeguard the knowledge of the arkentools, their attuning to Wanda, and anything related to Decryption.

Also, he may have done some troop veiling and the GK Archons pierced it.