Summer Updates - 045

[Decorus]

Parsons is actually both a strategic and tactical genius.
How ever Ansom is not a tactical genius he is a strategic genius.

At its heart, tactics is a shifting amalgam of psychology, physics, and statistics.

Ansom has no understanding of psychology, and no real knowledge of statistics.
Parsons is actually limited by his lack of understanding of the physics of Erfworld...
Hence Parsons dramatic improvements as he understands more about how Erfworld works.

[Pindanin]

Here is a possible theory as to what Charlie is up to and why I think it.
We know that units require upkeep. We know that no one is buying anything from Charlie.
I believe Charlie's upkeep is higher than what he can naturally produce from his side. He depends greatly on the sale of his services to pay the bills.
He is recruiting the gobwins for mining purposes. He needs to get more units that can produce schmuckers for him. Gobwins would be best becasue it denies GK gobwins for thier own mining operations and since marbits cannot ally with GK they are left with whatever they can generate now. This may be why he is enter GK's battlespace. Looking for more gobwins.

Re: Love is a battlefield. I think that this relates to how there are several love triangles going on with the warlords and casters. Ansom loves Jillain. Ansom loves Wanda. Jillian loves Ansom. Jillian loves Wanda. Wanda loves no one. Either that or theres going to be a lot of dance fighting and finger snapping.

[Vreejack]

As has been mentioned - the notion of Archons wanting to do things beyond their strict set of orders has been observed. It seems strange that Parson has concluded that they are totally incapable of having their own desires.

Perhaps "liberal" units like that one archon are rare, but in any event these are not normal units, they are "decrypted" and therefor sacrifice much of what free will they ever had before.

[mortissimus]

So having natural allies means you have an independent source for producing troops, as long as you can put more schmuckers into their treasury?

Considering that GK is now probably one of the richest sides, and that units that long time to pop, anything that diminishes GKs troop building capacity (hobgobwins has given them at least 199 new units in 38 turns) would be worth while in the long run.

[Megaduck]

Well, it depends on their personality, and loyalty stat I think. If the Archons are like a prettier and eloquent version of Bogroll then yes, the notion of volunteering is foreign since all they'd want to do is serve.

It's the 'If' I'm not getting here. The Archons don't have a notion of volunteering, that's why parson had to explain it to them. It's the next sentence that I think explains why, they don't have the notion of volunteering before because they were never asked to.

[Tubal-Cain]

It occurs to me that if Charlie is able to cause the Gobwins to disappear...could he also have been behind the Gobwins turning on King Saline?

Charlie saw a threat a long way down the road and decided to nip it in the bud.

Charlie owns an Arkentool and presumably wants to keep it.
Stanley believes it is his destiny to control the Arkentools, and therefore is likely to try taking Charlie's at some point.
The Arkenhammer gives Stanley Xykon-like brute force which would crush Charlie in a two-party war.
Saline wouldn't rush into a war unprepared. Stanley would.
Stanley being an Overlord would keep the Arkenhammer at home, off the battlefield.
Saline is a Royal. Stanley isn't.
The Royals don't like Overlords, especially ones that try to conquer the world. A coalition is likely to be formed against Stanley, but less likely against Saline.
Without proper management and with the Arkenhammer out of play, Gobwin Knob can't survive against the combined might of the Royals.

[raphfrk]

So having natural allies means you have an independent source for producing troops, as long as you can put more schmuckers into their treasury?

It could be exponential. You give the unit schmuckers and there is a chance it will produce another unit. They went from 1 unit to 200 in 38 turns. That represents around a 15% population increase per turn.

Alternatively, it could be 1-2 knights per turn and 4-5 standard units.

[Pointyleaf]

Y'know, it has belatedly occurred to me (about two fricking years late) that the Gobwin Knobbers cannot possibly be the bad guys in spite of Parson's assumption that they were ("I've always wanted to play the bad guys, which we obviously are.") The reason? Simple: Who ever heard of an evil side with a Guy in Charge as staggeringly stupid as Stanley the Tool? I rest my case.

Apparently you've never read Atlas Shrugged - villains there are not only stupid but emo also.

Other thoughts: if exercise/food is related to weight, and weight is related to ability to ride a dragon, I wonder if Parson's dragon-riding abilities will change at some point? Probably not, but is possible.

Thus far, we've only seen casters/lords act voluntarily. These are also the only ones who can selectively engage in combat. Are Archons casters?

[warriortribble]

It's the 'If' I'm not getting here. The Archons don't have a notion of volunteering, that's why parson had to explain it to them. It's the next sentence that I think explains why, they don't have the notion of volunteering before because they were never asked to.

Ah I see. It seems I misread your post.

[scotchmonger]

First time poster, long time lurker. I was tempted to register last update just to further up the number but I didn't have much to add. Last night I found myself re-reading erfworld... Want to see something verrrry interesting that I came across that seems to possibly tie in with this update?

Spoiler: show

Perhaps Charlie was involved here. http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0087.html

I thought about this page when I read over the update. It all fits together in a neat way.

Using the Gobwins for internal capital strike (Sizemore thought it was odd) would have instantly ended GK's side and disbanded lowly attuned warlord Stanley and left the Arkenhammer unclaimed again. It only failed because Stanley was made an heir -- my personal suspicion is that it was done secretly.

A direct capital strike and ruler assassination has unique implications in Erfworld that make it very compelling. All other city units freeze and are taken out at leisure, Field units disband or at best become barbarians without a capital forced to subsist on a limited purse.

Doing it to Stanley right now would effectively end GK and leave the Arkenhammer in the city for the taking (Wanda might survive by virtue of being a caster or because she's attuned -- not enough information) because GK is in the same functional position as Unaroyal was when Queen Bea took herself out. I'm assuming it would take some time to gather enough Gobwins to successfully pull this off.

I haven't really had too many strong pet theories so far but I like the way this one ties together -- Charlie could either be doing it for himself (get all the tools) or he could have been hired to do it by someone else (plausible deniability). I lean toward personal gain but either works.

This would also explain why Stanley hates Charlie and won't consider hiring him. Lots of people see Stanley organizing the coup but I think it feels more natural for Charlie to be behind a sneaky gambit.

[Lord Kasavin]

Y'know, it has belatedly occurred to me (about two fricking years late) that the Gobwin Knobbers cannot possibly be the bad guys in spite of Parson's assumption that they were ("I've always wanted to play the bad guys, which we obviously are.") The reason? Simple: Who ever heard of an evil side with a Guy in Charge as staggeringly stupid as Stanley the Tool? I rest my case.

Apparently you've never read Atlas Shrugged - villains there are not only stupid but emo also.

Other thoughts: if exercise/food is related to weight, and weight is related to ability to ride a dragon, I wonder if Parson's dragon-riding abilities will change at some point? Probably not, but is possible.

Thus far, we've only seen casters/lords act voluntarily. These are also the only ones who can selectively engage in combat. Are Archons casters?

Ayn Rand is not a very good example. The "protagonists" the reader is suppose to identify with are amoral, aethesitc, and outright malignent. Plus...



Still, the point remains. Yes, there are stupid villains out there. The oldest one in the book might be the Devil himself, who before Milton was far less a schemer and much more a "beast." That is a primordial evil that capable of temptation and inflicting various ills and maybe coherent thought, but not long term planning.

[HailGreen28]

Wow. Three topics are very interesting.

1. It really matters what questions you ask the Bracer. It doesn't seem to twist your question. Just answer EXACTLY what you ask, which has it's plusses and minuses. A Bracer that thought through your question and gave you the answer you NEED, not the one you ask, would be better. But still very good. And to figure the probability Charlie's involved? Yeah, the Bracer accounts for knowledge Parson and his allies don't have.

2. Marbits in the tunnels! I would be horrified if i were in Parson's place.
a. There is a naturally hostile force right under GW's noses / feet. Why hasn't Parson or Stanley ordered a Marbit extermination squad, like yesterday?
b. Sizemore deliberately wrecked Gobwin Knob once before by collapsing tunnels. What if the Marbits can do the same?
c. The mines are where GW's wealth of gems is! Are the Marbits robbing GW as we speak?
d. As an afterthought, yeah maybe the Marbits are keeping GW from popping Gobwins. Parson should consult with Sizemore and Maggie, ask the Bracer more questions to try nailing down the source of the Marbit threat, what ELSE might be down there, and what hostile force strength is down there. Then send enough troops to crush them immediately.

3. If Parson's shyness has kept him from learning Charlie's secrets from the Archons, shame on Parson. Otherwise, as others have said, I'd like to think I'd do the right thing, but Parson is probably a better man than me.

[Gez]

The "protagonists" the reader is suppose to identify with are amoral, aethesitc, and outright malignent.

"Malignent" is "malignant", okay. But what does "aethesitc" mean? Aesthetic? Anesthetic? Atheistic? Antithetic? Ascetic? And why would any of these qualifiers be a bad thing?

[Justyn]

2. Marbits in the tunnels! I would be horrified if i were in Parson's place.
a. There is a naturally hostile force right under GW's noses / feet. Why hasn't Parson or Stanley ordered a Marbit extermination squad, like yesterday?
b. Sizemore deliberately wrecked Gobwin Knob once before by collapsing tunnels. What if the Marbits can do the same?
c. The mines are where GW's wealth of gems is! Are the Marbits robbing GW as we speak?
d. As an afterthought, yeah maybe the Marbits are keeping GW from popping Gobwins. Parson should consult with Sizemore and Maggie, ask the Bracer more questions to try nailing down the source of the Marbit threat, what ELSE might be down there, and what hostile force strength is down there. Then send enough troops to crush them immediately.

The Marbits are in the tunnel systems of the other mountains around Gobwin Knob, but not in the actual mountain Gobwin Knob is on. Take a look at the mountains in the background of the first panel of the first page of book 2... those are the mountains the Marbits are in.

[ftl]

Wow. Three topics are very interesting.

1. It really matters what questions you ask the Bracer. It doesn't seem to twist your question. Just answer EXACTLY what you ask, which has it's plusses and minuses. A Bracer that thought through your question and gave you the answer you NEED, not the one you ask, would be better. But still very good. And to figure the probability Charlie's involved? Yeah, the Bracer accounts for knowledge Parson and his allies don't have.

This really is turning into a pet peeve of mine. I'm trying to avoid it, but I can't help but comment...

You CAN'T tell what information is going into calculating a probability by what the probability is. I quite disagree that the bracer needs to account for information Parson and his allies do not have. The questions "what's the probability that something fishy is going on" and "what's the probability that charlie is behind it" just give us numbers, so you can't tell anything about the Bracer's reasoning for those numbers. The 92% might just be based on "something fishy is probably going on, and Charlescomm is pretty much the only agency around who would be involved in 'something fishy'." - no privileged knowledge necessary.

HOWEVER, the one question where we CAN compare the numbers to what actually happened supports the other side, that the bracer isn't omniscient! We know that
"His bracer put it at a 98 percent chance that the Archons should have spotted some Gobwins in the mountains or Sizemore found some below ground by now."

However, they did not find any. Clearly, the bracer was missing some critical information when it made that probability assignment! (Again, we can't tell this just from the number itself, but we CAN tell by comparison to what actually happened.)

If the Bracer had information that Parson did not, it would not put the probability so high, since it would know that "something fishy was going on."

However, if the bracer does NOT have predictamancy or lookamancy powers, and just mathamancy, then the sequence of questions and answers makes sense.

[ShieldOfAthena]

Parsons is actually both a strategic and tactical genius.
How ever Ansom is not a tactical genius he is a strategic genius.

At its heart, tactics is a shifting amalgam of psychology, physics, and statistics.

Ansom has no understanding of psychology, and no real knowledge of statistics.
Parsons is actually limited by his lack of understanding of the physics of Erfworld...
Hence Parsons dramatic improvements as he understands more about how Erfworld works.

That word, I do not think it means what you think it means.

[mortissimus]

So having natural allies means you have an independent source for producing troops, as long as you can put more schmuckers into their treasury?

It could be exponential. You give the unit schmuckers and there is a chance it will produce another unit. They went from 1 unit to 200 in 38 turns. That represents around a 15% population increase per turn.

Alternatively, it could be 1-2 knights per turn and 4-5 standard units.

If getting one gobwin would give GK 1-2 knights (or other good units) per turn and 4-5 standard units, then it is a sizeable loss not to get that single one (from what we know of production speeds). If it is exponential, then it is a huge loss. All assuming that GKs limit right now lies in production capacity and not schmuckers.

Exponential would make sense from a tribe perspective (it grows in numbers depending on how many they are), linear would make sense from an option perspective (either you have the option to let your natural allies pop more or you don't), sort of like having a special building that pops certain units in a RTS game. The more data we get, the more we need...

[Darkside007]

A Lookamancer and/or a Findamancer.
The Lookamancer could look at the field/caves to see where they are and when linked show the Foolamancer.(same as how Misty Showed Jack the field so he could project it onto the table)
While Findamancer would just find them(however that works) and show the Foolamancer where they are.
Simple, well except for the linking part......

Gobwin Knob had that exact setup and it was 100% impossible to do it.

That's up for debate. I have always read that line as meaning they couldn't use the Eyemancer linkup for the table AND vailing a stack at the same time.
But whatever it might still be possible with a Findamaner linkup.
Also, and I know I'm going to be sounding like a mod but, could you please try not to make two posts in the same thread so soon after each other, I mean we have an edit button for a reason.....

I don't think there's a 'quote combine' button for posts pages apart. Anyway,

http://www.erfworld.com/book-1-archive/?px=%2F064.jpg

They *can't* veil stacks when linked.
They *can't* veil stacks outside of their own.
They *can't* veil outside their turn.

If any condition is true, veiling cannot be done. Only if all conditions are false can veils be cast.

Ayn Rand is not a very good example. The "protagonists" the reader is suppose to identify with are amoral, aethesitc, and outright malignent. Plus...

Well, Bob the angry flower fails at reading comprehension.

Since, you know, most of the protags were farming at the beginning of Act 3.

[BoopingCynic]

THe should just kill all the marbits then relay Wanda and decrypt them .

[Welf von Ehrwald]

THe should just kill all the marbits then relay Wanda and decrypt them .

Exactly. Pop a warlord, and send him leveling for a turn with the decrypted marbits, gobwins and the golems. And then let Wanda decrypt them. Maybe catch some marbits and ask them what happened to the gobwins.