Book 2 – Page 110

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Re: Book 2 – Page 110

Postby Lipkin » Mon May 27, 2013 9:25 pm

jah77 wrote:
Lipkin wrote:Earlier in the latest text update we saw that the bracer's results are not instantaneous, and that it displays data as it computes. It is not that 98% was the final number that got changed to 0%, it's that 98% was the number until the bracer lastly figured fate into the equation. The bracer is working the same as it always has, no Foolamancy involved.


I agree this sounds more plausible than some sort of active fate. However, we've also seen that the bracer requires information in order to make certain calculations, and that the bracer is not necessarily "all-knowing." The text updates with the bracer making calculations shows that the bracer requires Parson to specify certain conditions, and we've also seen that the bracer requires information from Parson, i.e., when Wanda is talking to Parson about battle plans in the initial stages of the invasion of Spacerock.

On the other hand, the information required by the bracer may simply be constraints on the question that Parson is asking the bracer, and the bracer may actually have Predictamancy capabilities, which of course could take fate into account.

I like your explanation better than the "active fate" or "Titans vs. Charlie" explanations, but I still want Jack to be alive. :)

We know the bracer has predictamancer capabilities, because it predicted that Charlie would find the calculations more valuable than having the answer to the question of Decryption from Parson.

Also, on the topic of Jillian taking Gobwin Knob, she isn't nearby. Last we heard she was heading back to Faq, striking targets of opportunity along the way. Spacerock is on the edge of Gobwin Knob territory, so she is not heading in GobWin Knobs direction. If Faq were near Gobwin Knob, GK would be attacking Translyvito, not Jetstone. Stanley is fine until he has to venture out to reset the capital.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 110

Postby junovalkyrie » Mon May 27, 2013 9:33 pm

Lipkin wrote:Earlier in the latest text update we saw that the bracer's results are not instantaneous, and that it displays data as it computes. It is not that 98% was the final number that got changed to 0%, it's that 98% was the number until the bracer lastly figured fate into the equation. The bracer is working the same as it always has, no Foolamancy involved.


That's what I was going to say. The bracer was originally described in terms of mathamancy, but the summer update where Charlie's questioning prompted Parson to discover more about its capabilities suggests that it may involve elements of predictamancy as well. My guess is that it simply recognized the question as one that could be interpreted in terms both of mathamancy (what is the theoretical probability that I will succeed if I attempt to cast this spell now?) and of predictamancy (what is the actual probability that I will succeed if I attempt to cast this spell now?) and thus utilized both in its calculations. Possibly the predictamancy overrode the mathamancy because the bracer treated the actual answer as taking precedent over the theoretical; possibly the predictamancy/factoring in of fate simply occurred later in the process than the mathamancy, and the bracer was displaying data as it computed.

Edit: Truly, truly, I say unto you: this topic is full of ninjas.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 110

Postby Thecommander236 » Mon May 27, 2013 9:34 pm

One last theory, the burnt soldiers name will be "Bernie". Why? Because it will amuse me.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 110

Postby Vreejack » Mon May 27, 2013 10:25 pm

Thecommander236 wrote:Does anyone want to see Antium and his two soldiers survive? That guy with the brunt face went through a lot and I feel he deserves to live. Also, it figures Janis would stop the conflict in the magic kingdom. How come I didn't think of that? She hates conflict.

It is her primary skill, after all. But yes, Parson needs to ensure those units survive, personally. Hard to do that if he is out, though.
Thecommander236 wrote:I figure the new page is already planned and started, so I doubt anything will be changed from our comments, but I feel that Antium especially can be a very workable character. I believe that at least he should survive to tell Tramennis to back down.

I suspect that the fact that they went through so much to save Parson will prove to be important. Perhaps it will the key to tying them to Parson instead of Wanda. In any event they ought to affect Parson's emotional development.
Thecommander236 wrote:By the way, who else thinks that Jack's body may now be too damaged to be resurrected? I have this feeling Balder planned it so that Jack's death would seem meaningless and irreversible in order to give it more meaning and, therefore, had the fire there to destroy he body. Alternatively, Jack is resurrected but the process changes him so much that everyone is creeped out (after that, I would say there's a 50% chance that Jack would be faking the change).

Gobwin Knob was devastated by flowing lava, but the only corpse that was too destroyed to be decrytped was Bogroll's, apparently because it was intentionally destroyed. Note that Ansom's croaked corpse looked simply dusty even though he likely broke Bogroll's fall and was then submerged in lava and bombarded with lava bombs. Intention to destroy a corpse seems to be the key; it's probably an action a unit can perform.
Last edited by Vreejack on Mon May 27, 2013 11:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
So...Watashi wa mizugorō ga sukina koto o kiita, neh?
A Prediction is what would have happened had there been no Prediction. What is scary is that they are also what will happen in spite of the Prediction.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 110

Postby Vreejack » Mon May 27, 2013 10:36 pm

jah77 wrote:
Lipkin wrote:Earlier in the latest text update we saw that the bracer's results are not instantaneous, and that it displays data as it computes. It is not that 98% was the final number that got changed to 0%, it's that 98% was the number until the bracer lastly figured fate into the equation. The bracer is working the same as it always has, no Foolamancy involved.


I agree this sounds more plausible than some sort of active fate. However, we've also seen that the bracer requires information in order to make certain calculations, and that the bracer is not necessarily "all-knowing." The text updates with the bracer making calculations shows that the bracer requires Parson to specify certain conditions, and we've also seen that the bracer requires information from Parson, i.e., when Wanda is talking to Parson about battle plans in the initial stages of the invasion of Spacerock.

On the other hand, the information required by the bracer may simply be constraints on the question that Parson is asking the bracer, and the bracer may actually have Predictamancy capabilities, which of course could take fate into account.

I like your explanation better than the "active fate" or "Titans vs. Charlie" explanations, but I still want Jack to be alive. :)


Jack will be decrypted. Why do you doubt this?

But as for the bracer having actual predictamancy, I doubt it. It seems merely to be observing the Predictions of other casters.

Can a Prediction exist without an original caster to Predict it? I suspect not. Thus if you ask the bracer's odds on a coin toss, it will always be 50/50, for the bracer has no ability to "Predict" an individual toss. But if the toss impinges upon a caster's Prediction, then the bracer can take that into account. For example, if a predictamancer Predicts that the next toss will be heads, then the bracer will call it 100% heads. If Parson needs to travel to Dwagoncon to satisfy a Prediction, and he flips a coin to decide which city to go to next, then maybe his bracer would take that into account and mark the coin toss as something other than 50/50, depending on how important it was for the Prediction. The bracer is a Prediction detector, but it is not a predictamancer

(retconjured for clarity)
So...Watashi wa mizugorō ga sukina koto o kiita, neh?
A Prediction is what would have happened had there been no Prediction. What is scary is that they are also what will happen in spite of the Prediction.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 110

Postby Jinren » Mon May 27, 2013 10:52 pm

jah77 wrote:Also, I don't understand how Charlie could be affecting Parson's bracer with Carnymancy. Charlie's unmatched, long distance skill is in thinkamancy, through the arkendish, not Carnymancy. So how would Charlie be affecting Parson's bracer?


Was it ever established that the Arkendish only provides thinkamancy?

Four tools across 24 disciplines, seems odd to assume the powers of a tool are limited to only one. I would be inclined to assume until shown otherwise that the Attuned are just using the tools in the best way they know how at the moment.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 110

Postby Magothys » Mon May 27, 2013 11:07 pm

Random observation: it hasn't been that long since Parson entered the portal the first time, but panel 8 seems to make it clear that the GMTTA are no longer present, yet the predictamancers are. Weren't the GMTTA worried about Parson? The predictamancers staying at the portal should have been a red flag...
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Re: Book 2 – Page 110

Postby Vreejack » Mon May 27, 2013 11:10 pm

"Clem" was a typical name for a gullible rustic that became a carny insider word for a mark, but it can apparently refer to a townie/carny fight as well. Probably from "clem fight."

"Wrang!" must be an idiosyncratic way of saying "ready for action." "Wrangy" means energetic.
So...Watashi wa mizugorō ga sukina koto o kiita, neh?
A Prediction is what would have happened had there been no Prediction. What is scary is that they are also what will happen in spite of the Prediction.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 110

Postby Vreejack » Mon May 27, 2013 11:20 pm

Random observation: Xin set a really high standard in this one. Impressive.
So...Watashi wa mizugorō ga sukina koto o kiita, neh?
A Prediction is what would have happened had there been no Prediction. What is scary is that they are also what will happen in spite of the Prediction.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 110

Postby WhirdCheese » Tue May 28, 2013 1:03 am

arbo wrote:(A)

We haven't heard of Jillian in a long time. But she is too important a character. This book wouldn't just end without her playing a huge role.

(B)

We know King Saline IV made Stanley, his beloved Chief Warlord, heir designate. That's got to be one of Stanley's most treasured memories. Also, on a recent text update, there was a gratuitous mention of Stanley willing to someday "groom" Parson to start his own side... More often than not, when Rob gratuitously mentions something it becomes important later.

Therefore...

Law of Conservation of Detail meets Death By Character Development.

Faq's air force, who were hiding close to Gobwin Knob as instructed by Charlie, invade the city right after it ceases to be a capital.

While battle ensues, Jillian goes straight to Stanley and croaks him at last.

Stanley, just before being croaked, on a last desperate gesture makes Parson, his Chief Warlord, heir designate.

Parson crosses the portal to Spacerock, goes barbarian, sits atop the throne and starts his own side.


I see a problem. There's no way a flight of gwiffons can get from Spacerock to Gobwin Knob. I'm not saying this can't happen ever just not this turn.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 110

Postby reteo » Tue May 28, 2013 2:53 am

Well, if decryption works enough to allow casters to cast, then we'll have an expert in no time to have a look at the bracer and determine if tampering is involved. Don't forget, Ace Hardware was among the croaked, and magic items are... uh... WERE his... um... er... hat.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 110

Postby Fjord » Tue May 28, 2013 4:45 am

arbo wrote:
Parson crosses the portal to Spacerock, goes barbarian, sits atop the throne and starts his own side.


I dig it, but he doesn't have to go barbarian if Stanley is dead ;)
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Re: Book 2 – Page 110

Postby Pokota » Tue May 28, 2013 7:22 am

Per Book 1, if the ruler is defeated while he is out of the capital, the side loses their turns.
zyxophoj wrote:Also, it depends rather heavily on Wanda ... not being Wanda.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 110

Postby Beeskee » Tue May 28, 2013 7:44 am

Faq hitting Gobwin Knob this turn is a remote possibility, but a more likely one is Jillian returning to Spacerock. If we assume (I know) that the cities are roughly evenly spaced, more or less, Jillian is at about the halfway mark and still has a chance to turn around and make it back with her remaining move. The only thing keeping her away was Wanda.

The only hitch is that, with the portal switched and the city under their control, I imagine the first thing Parson will do is to order all his units in the MK through the portal, once he quits slacking off being badly burned and regains consciousness.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 110

Postby dirocyn » Tue May 28, 2013 8:14 am

cheeseaholic wrote:The groundhog can fight. Where did it come from then? If it can fight it should be a unit. Do animals spawn in the MK or what?


That groundhog is Punxutawney Phil, the official groundhog of Groundhog's Day. I suspect the animal itself is the predictamancer (the stupidworld Punxutawney Phil predicts spring based on whether he sees his shadow at dawn on Feb. 2), the guy with the hat is just carrying him.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 110

Postby Duric » Tue May 28, 2013 10:12 am

The hat guy is no longer present with the carnies.

Gives a tiny hope that jack was not jack
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Re: Book 2 – Page 110

Postby frei » Tue May 28, 2013 10:35 am

1) What *exactly* happens when a side loses it's capital but still has its ruler? I think the only instance we've seen of this happening is Olive taking FAQ. Were they still a unified side, or are all the units effectively barbarian? Like, if Spacerock fell, would Gobwin Knob still have its treasury and cities and the like?

EDIT: Wanda still joins the side of FAQ, and Jillian is still acting in her capacity as chief warlord when she accepts her and such, so it still seems like there's a coherent side, I suppose.

2) I think we can pretty definitively say at this point that everything that Parson did after the "let's do lunch" maneuver -- so his involvement in the last year (or two?) of story -- was pointless and ultimately even stupid.

Things would have been way better if he didn't go through the portal. The supposed foreshadowed "cost" of the let's-do-lunch plan was actually zero. The three dead GK units died because of the *other* plan, the let-me-through-the-portal plan, which was tactically unrelated. It may have originally seemed important to give the Spacerock units the chief warlord bonus. But when it became clear (to him, in the MK) that he was trading this bonus for Wanda's presence, or when he saw (when he walked through the portal and spoke to Jack) that there wouldn't even be that many units left to boost, he should have backed out.

I'm pretty disappointed that Parson didn't figure some ingenious way out of Charlie's trap. Even worse, he was actually trying to read the stupid scroll! This is a major victory for Charlie. Even if he doesn't get rid of Parson, Charlie forced the outcome he wanted against the best efforts of Parson. In existential terms, Parson is still alive, but psychologically, Parson conceded the loss, gave the gg, and chose to go back home.

In Book 1 the frustrating stuff was when Parson was coming up with ingenious ideas and they were failing, because the story necessitated that he come up with yet more ingenious ideas, culminating in a truly epic and winning maneuver. In Book 2 apparently the story just demands that Parson fails, and in the meantime, his ideas totally suck and he concedes a loss. Parson's role in affecting the story is very minimal.

It's good that all these mechanisms about how fate works are being revealed, and I like that they are going to play an important role in the story going forward. But couldn't fate have interfered with Parson doing something cool, instead of Parson doing something of extremely marginal importance? I mean, even he is exasperated by the short-sightedness of his own planning, in the thinkamancy realm with Isaac and Maggie.

Just to be clear, I still *really love* the story and look forward to every update. I overall like the plot and the revelations about the mechanics of the world, and I like how most of the characters have been behaving. Charlie has been great, the Spacerock characters have been great, Stanley and the MK crowd have been great, etc., etc. But going forward, can we please get back to characterizing Parson sensibly? I hope there's space enough left in Book 2 for it to start happening, but if not, then in Book 3.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 110

Postby effataigus » Tue May 28, 2013 10:44 am

Not badly put, Frei. I'm still having loads of fun with the comic as well.

Timeout is badass. :D

Carnymancy is the magic of breaking the rules. Carnymancy is the magic of defying fate. Carnymancy is the magic of stacking plates. Most of all, carnymancy is the magic of doing whatever it is that I need to be done for my theory to work. Could someone link the original version of these lines on carnymancy so we can stop missquoting them?
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Re: Book 2 – Page 110

Postby jah77 » Tue May 28, 2013 11:55 am

frei wrote:2) I think we can pretty definitively say at this point that everything that Parson did after the "let's do lunch" maneuver -- so his involvement in the last year (or two?) of story -- was pointless and ultimately even stupid.

Things would have been way better if he didn't go through the portal. The supposed foreshadowed "cost" of the let's-do-lunch plan was actually zero. The three dead GK units died because of the *other* plan, the let-me-through-the-portal plan, which was tactically unrelated. It may have originally seemed important to give the Spacerock units the chief warlord bonus. But when it became clear (to him, in the MK) that he was trading this bonus for Wanda's presence, or when he saw (when he walked through the portal and spoke to Jack) that there wouldn't even be that many units left to boost, he should have backed out.

I'm pretty disappointed that Parson didn't figure some ingenious way out of Charlie's trap. Even worse, he was actually trying to read the stupid scroll! This is a major victory for Charlie. Even if he doesn't get rid of Parson, Charlie forced the outcome he wanted against the best efforts of Parson. In existential terms, Parson is still alive, but psychologically, Parson conceded the loss, gave the gg, and chose to go back home.

In Book 1 the frustrating stuff was when Parson was coming up with ingenious ideas and they were failing, because the story necessitated that he come up with yet more ingenious ideas, culminating in a truly epic and winning maneuver. In Book 2 apparently the story just demands that Parson fails, and in the meantime, his ideas totally suck and he concedes a loss. Parson's role in affecting the story is very minimal.


I have a hunch that Parson's Maggie-initiated contact w Charlie way back in book 1 involved some sort of suggestion spell by Charlie, causing parson to act more rashly than he otherwise would have and giving Charlie some degree of control over parson. Hence parsons inexplicable urge to traverse the deadly MK and go into battle himself without a plan. Very un-parson like don't you think?
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Re: Book 2 – Page 110

Postby Mindless Automaton » Tue May 28, 2013 11:56 am

Thecommander236 wrote:One last theory, the burnt soldiers name will be "Bernie". Why? Because it will amuse me.


What makes you think its not Crispin?
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