Lipkin wrote: jah77 wrote:
Lipkin wrote:Earlier in the latest text update we saw that the bracer's results are not instantaneous, and that it displays data as it computes. It is not that 98% was the final number that got changed to 0%, it's that 98% was the number until the bracer lastly figured fate into the equation. The bracer is working the same as it always has, no Foolamancy involved.
I agree this sounds more plausible than some sort of active fate. However, we've also seen that the bracer requires information in order to make certain calculations, and that the bracer is not necessarily "all-knowing." The text updates with the bracer making calculations shows that the bracer requires Parson to specify certain conditions, and we've also seen that the bracer requires information from Parson, i.e., when Wanda is talking to Parson about battle plans in the initial stages of the invasion of Spacerock.
On the other hand, the information required by the bracer may simply be constraints on the question that Parson is asking the bracer, and the bracer may actually have Predictamancy capabilities, which of course could take fate into account.
I like your explanation better than the "active fate" or "Titans vs. Charlie" explanations, but I still want
Jack to be alive.
We know the bracer has predictamancer capabilities, because it predicted that Charlie would find the calculations more valuable than having the answer to the question of Decryption from Parson.
Also, on the topic of Jillian taking Gobwin Knob, she isn't nearby. Last we heard she was heading back to Faq, striking targets of opportunity along the way. Spacerock is on the edge of Gobwin Knob territory, so she is not heading in GobWin Knobs direction. If Faq were near Gobwin Knob, GK would be attacking Translyvito, not Jetstone. Stanley is fine until he has to venture out to reset the capital.
Faq isn't very far away from GK. Stanley was heading there to reclaim a capitol site when he thought tBfGK was hopeless. We don't know the exact distance, how much move his dwagons had, or how much move megalogwiffs have. We also don't know if terrain affects their move or not. If the megalogwiffs have higher move, or are not impeded by terrain (while dwagons are), then Jillian may well be within striking distance. Maybe GK is 50 hexes away from GK. If the lowest move of Stanley's stack going to Faq was 32, but the lowest move of Jillian stack going to GK was 54, it would take Stanley 2 turns to get to GK, but may only take one for Jillian to get to GK. GK could be 30 hexes away from Faq, but if terrain modifiers ate up more than 1 move per hex (steep mountains eating up a LOT more move than flat plains), Stanley could have been hindered by that, but if Jillian hasn't gotten to the mountains yet, she could still be on easy terrain to traverse, making it a lot more possible for her to reach GK this turn. There are lots of numbers we just don't have.
TV and Faq were both minor players in the RCC. Jetstone was the leader of it, and it was Prince Ansom that lead the assault. compared to Unaroyal and Jetstone, TV and Faq are minor targets. It wouldn't surprise me, though, if after Jetstone is wiped out and GK replenishes its forces, if TV and Faq aren't among the next targets. At least until Charlie holds up another lightning rod for Parson's wrath to be drawn to.
Of course that may be part of Charlie's plans. He may know that he cannot launch a strike against GK without endangering his already tarnished image, but if he provokes GK into attacking him, a victory under those circumstances would reinforce his reputation as a fighting force. Defensive strategies and offensive strategies are completely different. Parson has shown that he was NOT going to be beaten in a downgraded GK, so how much damage could Parson do in the new GK with its improved defenses? GK is currently missing most of its tunnel-capable units, which limits their ability to assault Charlescomm through the mountains. They'd pretty much have to use as much firepower as they could muster through an air assault, which would be so many wins for Charlie. He could capture Parson, the bracer, the Pliers, and the Hammer all in one choke-point.