0beron wrote:The Carnymancy Natural Allies thing could be possible, however there is also another possibility. Obviously we don't know this, but perhaps Natural Allies of a given type will not pop wild nearby sides that have already "acquired" others of their kind. So Charlie may have swooped in, found a Tribe, allied them, and is keeping them (hidden) in the area to prevent further pops.
That's certainly a possibility, but I see one flaw with it. Different types of Natural Allies have an animosity
towards others, e.g. Elves and Marbits won't ally with a side that uses Gobwins, Hobgobwins, Witches or Daemons. If Charlie did have a formal alliance with a tribe of Gobwins hidden near Gobwin Knob, it might
cause negative repercussions in his dealings with other types of Natural Allies. Of course, it might not. All we know is that certain Natural Allies wouldn't ally with Charlie if he's allied with Gobwins, it doesn't necessarily mean they wouldn't interact with him in other ways. Heck, we don't even really know that. For all we know, due to his natural affinity with them, Charlie may be able to get Natural Allies that normally wouldn't work together to do exactly that. It's yet another question mark. Exactly how much influence does Charlie have over natural allies?
Lilwik wrote:That theory makes sense to me. It's speculation, but it could easily be correct. I would just like to point out that Luckamancy is in the business of boosting odds, so I don't think that Carnymancy does that. I suspect that when Carnymancy is involved, it's not a matter of chance at all anymore; it only looks like a matter of chance.
While I certainly may be wrong, this is the way I see it. To borrow Dice's die metaphor, Carnymancy changes the odds, Luckamancy changes the roll. We know that, in the Misty Mountains, there's about a one-in-two-hundred chance that a feral dwagon
will pop in any given hex. Image you're a GM running the game. This involves two rolls of a d20. First you roll to see if any unit pops in a hex. A unit only pops in the wild on a roll of 20. If a unit pops, you roll 1d20 again and consult a table to see what
pops. A dwagon only pops on a roll of 19 or 20. Anything else, and something else pops there. Okay, say you have a Luckamancer influencing the roll. You roll the first d20. You get a 16. The Luckamancer steals a 20 from somewhere else and replaces the 16 with it. So, now you roll on the table and roll a 12. The Luckamancer steals a 19 from somewhere and replaces the 12. Congratulations, you just popped a feral dwagon. Unfortunately, the next time you roll a 20, it will be replaced by that 18, and the next time you roll a 19, it will be replace by a 12. Now, let's look at a Carnymancer influencing the roll. He doesn't affect the roll, per se, instead he affects the odds. Instead of needing a 20 for a unit to pop, you only need 16 or better. The 18 does it. Now, instead of needing 19 or better for it to be a dwagon, you only need 12 or better, and you got a 12. The Luckamancer and Carnymancer both accomplished the same thing, but they did it in different ways. Now, the Luckamancer has a better chance of guaranteeing your success, but there is a greater price to pay for it. With a Luckamancer, you still pop that feral dwagon with a roll of a 1 and a 2, but you'll have to use that 1 and 2 eventually. With the Carnymancer, that 1 and 2 still wouldn't have been good enough. Now, the amount a Carnymancer can affect the odds depends on how powerful the Carnymancer is. For a very old and powerful one attuned to an Arkentool, the odds can be shifted to the point of you only succeed on a double critical or fail on a double botch. Of course, I can be completely wrong. That's just the way I see them working at this point in time.
ManaCaster wrote:I like the theory, and I've actually been considering something similar. It does have one problem though. If that is how he's doing it, the spell would require extraordinary range or duration, since Gobwin Knob has been keeping Charlescomm units out of the area.
If Carnymancy can influence the popping process, what sort of a caster link do you think it would take to make casters pop instead of warlords?
I would imagine the duration could very well be permanent. It's like Charlie has hacked the game and rewritten the odds for those specific hexes. To use my metaphor above, he may have simply deleted the Gobwin entry from the table or changed the odds so that they only pop on a roll of 1000 on a d20, or, if he couldn't do that, only pop on a roll of 1000 on a d1000. We know that Charlie can extend his range through archons. Have an archon start the turn outside the range of the Gobwin Knob patrols, fly to a hex, use his abilities and fly out. Gobwin Knob was only patrolling those hexes close enough for archons to fly to and return in one turn. They aren't keeping archons in the field when it isn't their turn. That allows Charlie to get in and out without them noticing. While they may be using other scouts, the archons can use veils to avoid them. Once again, that's just speculation.
As for the caster link needed to guarantee that a caster pops instead of a warlord, that's tricky. From what little we know, caster's pop as Fate decrees. Assuming it's even possible to affect this, I feel like a Predictamancer would need to be involved somewhere. Sometimes things just aren't possible, such as when Wanda was attempting to shoot down Olive. Tripling your chances of doing something doesn't do any good if you have a 0% chance to start. At the very least, you might need to consult a Predictamancer to find the best time to make the attempt, i.e. if you start popping a commander this turn, you have 2% chance of it being a caster, but if you wait 3 turns, it becomes a 7% chance. I do think a Carnymancer would probably be the best candidate for this, but you may need to link them with a Luckamancer. The Carnymancer improves the odds from virtually non-existent to simply improbably, and then the Luckamancer guarantees that the roll succeeds. Of course, then you have the usually price of using the Luckamancer. Of course, it's also said that the Titans read the heart of the ruler when determining whether or not a caster pops. So, Banhammer, who loved his court of casters philosophizing kept popping caster, while Jillian, who just wants to stab things and hated the court, doesn't pop any. If that's the case, the best way to pop casters is to have a Thinkamancer play around with the head of the ruler so their "heart" wanted casters more than anything else.
I'm sure that really isn't helpful, but it's the best I can come up with.