Digdoug - Episode 7

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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Knott » Wed Feb 26, 2014 4:25 pm

DyolfKnip wrote:If Predictamancers are so cheap, why are they suddenly having to cook the books to such an extent to cover for a short-term hiring of one? Just hire a Dollamancer for a new royal outfit, and inflate the cost by whatever the Predictamancer cost.


If Chief Bucky isn't a secret caster, then they would need to contact the Magic Kingdom by proxy, which could cost more and maybe cause expenses too different to merge.
Besides the Book Cooking Homekey is doing isn't outright cheating. In order to comply with the alliance contract they must provide a balance report every turn; so they must make it less detailed, but still somewhat truthful.

Contact by proxy can be very risky if you want to keep the contact secret though, Links in chains and all that. ;)

but joosy does make a good point about how contact with a predictamancer could be aquired
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Sixty » Wed Feb 26, 2014 4:38 pm

Jacinth and Rubies wrote:
The Prediction said all living units would be wiped out - so, while they might have won the battle and wiped out Numloch's forces (rather than just scraping by), Digdoug would still have fallen, and only golems would be left in the city. Stop fighting the predictions! They are describing events that will happen (in the same way that mathamancer's dice describe battles and such) - hiring a Predictamancer does not set you on the path to a certain Fate, you were on that path from the very day you popped. Posbrake is making good use of Predictamancy in that he used what he was told to help keep the losses to his side small - he's accepted what the Predictions say, and used the information to take the path that benefits his side the best.


Unless the Prediction took into account that Posbrake would remove Digdoug upon hearing the prediction of major action at Weatherbug and that knowledge changed the prediction.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lilwik » Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:24 pm

drachefly wrote:I like how he used predictamancy in ways that don't trigger its worst effects. Ask about things that you actually need to know, where any answer is useful.
Knowledge is always good. You should ask about things you need to know, but surely there aren't actually any bad questions that have bad effects. Surely Predictamancers are only in the business of predicting stuff; they aren't actually responsible for unfortunate predictions. From what I've seen, the bad effects of Predictamancy aren't caused by too much knowledge, but instead by people who misuse their knowledge. If you know that something bad will happen, don't try to make it not happen; get out of its way!

DyolfKnip wrote:Posbrake didn't just know that an massive attack was coming, but that it would wipe out nearly all units. So his response was to remove a high-value unit that could conceivably have changed the results of the battle.
Predictamancy makes a mockery of causality, so that it becomes hard for anyone to say what they know about what would have happened on paths not taken. In a sense Posbrake did know that if Digdoug had stayed in Weatherbug then Digdoug would have died, because Predictions always come true. On the other hand, Predictamancers have no responsibility to talk about paths that won't be taken, so Posbrake really has no guarantee about what would have happened. There's no way Digdoug could have actually won the battle against those odds, but he might have at least managed to survive by hiding. Depending on which way you look at it, Posbrake both knew that Digdoug would have died and didn't know. Posbrake seems like a pretty thoughtful guy, so I expect that he is aware of this.

DyolfKnip wrote:You have to ask the right questions, and avoid learning too much like the plague. So by all means, ask about what sorts of attacks are coming, but never ever ask about their outcome, because once you do you're locked into the answer.
I seriously doubt that Predictamancy causes its own Predictions to be true. I have no proof of this, but surely Predictamancy is a lot like Lookamancy, an observational power that just reveals the world for what it is. In other words, the answers are already locked in whether you ask the questions or not. Choosing to reject knowledge is simply choosing the bliss of ignorance. It is a truly bizarre idea that asking questions might change the answers. I suppose that is inspired by quantum physics, but I've never seen anything that suggested that Predictamancy is anything like quantum physics.

Jacinth and Rubies wrote:Hiring a Predictamancer does not set you on the path to a certain Fate, you were on that path from the very day you popped.
That's a deterministic view, but we have no reason to think that Erfworld is a deterministic place. To me the fact that there are some things that Predictamancers cannot Predict suggests that Erfworld probably isn't deterministic. Luckamancy and Mathamancy both operate in a world of "maybe". Predictamancy just shows us that sometimes chance and choice line up to head in a certain direction and they lose the ability to turn away fast enough to avoid certain outcomes. All that we really know is that at the time the Predictamancer was hired, the Predictions were all unavoidable. If Posbrake had hired the Predictamancer a turn earlier, the situation might have been quite different. If he had time to re-enforce Weatherbug with more troops, the Predictamancer would probably have helped him win that battle rather than just helping him reduce his losses.

Althernai wrote:It could be that Predictamancy works like a measurement in classical physics. That is, as you say, it merely describes the state of the world as it always was and always will be.
Measurements in classical physics don't do that. You would need to measure the entire universe to know how any part of it always was and always will be. As soon as the thing you measure interacts with anything you haven't measured you no longer know what is going to happen. Predictamancy could just be like taking extensive but limited measurements of a classical physics universe.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby joosy » Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:02 pm

Regardless of the speculation, Posbrake is one of the few units we have seen who actually tries to work with Predictamancy instead of against it. Once Posbrake knew that no speaking units would survive he made the best decision he could. He risked fate by pulling out DigDoug and then prepared for the worst (organizing forces to retake Weatherbug as he expected it to fall). However, the temptation to always ignore or defy a prediction is always there. Even Banhammer let himself (or at least let himself appear to be) lulled into complacency when Faq was defeated the first time. He didn't croak as predicted and instead of considering that more in depth, he (along with Jillian) ignored that detail.

As noted by Marie - With Predictamancy the how, the when and the where are never certain, but the why is always the same. Fate is fate.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby mcw0933 » Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:04 pm

Sixty wrote:Unless the Prediction took into account that Posbrake would remove Digdoug upon hearing the prediction of major action at Weatherbug and that knowledge changed the prediction.


Lilwik wrote:In a sense Posbrake did know that if Digdoug had stayed in Weatherbug then Digdoug would have died, because Predictions always come true. On the other hand, Predictamancers have no responsibility to talk about paths that won't be taken, so Posbrake really has no guarantee about what would have happened. There's no way Digdoug could have actually won the battle against those odds, but he might have at least managed to survive by hiding. Depending on which way you look at it, Posbrake both knew that Digdoug would have died and didn't know. Posbrake seems like a pretty thoughtful guy, so I expect that he is aware of this.


I look at Predictions the way I look at "genie of the lamp" wishes. Much rests on the precise wording, and (even more) on what's not said. The prediction didn't say "No matter what you do, O King..." or mention Digdoug specifically. So, I'm with Sixty on this one: Posbrake was told no speaking units would survive, and none did. That tells us nothing about the outcome of the scenario where Digdoug stays put.

I don't think we can say "there's no way Digdoug could have won..." precisely because that wasn't asked, or tried.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lilwik » Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:29 pm

mcw0933 wrote:I look at Predictions the way I look at "genie of the lamp" wishes. Much rests on the precise wording, and (even more) on what's not said.
I can't believe that Predictions could be deliberately misleading. Predictamancers are already undervalued by Erfworld; there's no way they are going to do anything to make their discipline look even worse. I'm sure they always make sincere attempts to do the best they can for any side that will hire them. For the same reason I'm sure they don't make bad Predictions that are self-fulfilling. Predictamancers must hate making bad Predictions, and if a Predictamancer can avoid a bad outcome just by not speaking, that's what the Predictamancer would do.

mcw0933 wrote:The prediction didn't say "No matter what you do, O King..." or mention Digdoug specifically. So, I'm with Sixty on this one: Posbrake was told no speaking units would survive, and none did. That tells us nothing about the outcome of the scenario where Digdoug stays put.
We know that Weatherbug was brutally outnumbered, and would still be brutally outnumbered if Digdoug had stayed. We can also be pretty sure that the Predictamancer was trying to provide good service to Posbrake and thereby protect the reputation of Predictamancy. Therefore I'm pretty sure that if Digdoug had stayed it wouldn't have allowed Homekey to win the battle or improved the outcome in any significant way. That's not as certain as a Prediction, but it still seems to be backed by pretty solid evidence.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lamech » Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:37 pm

mcw0933 wrote:
Sixty wrote:Unless the Prediction took into account that Posbrake would remove Digdoug upon hearing the prediction of major action at Weatherbug and that knowledge changed the prediction.


Lilwik wrote:In a sense Posbrake did know that if Digdoug had stayed in Weatherbug then Digdoug would have died, because Predictions always come true. On the other hand, Predictamancers have no responsibility to talk about paths that won't be taken, so Posbrake really has no guarantee about what would have happened. There's no way Digdoug could have actually won the battle against those odds, but he might have at least managed to survive by hiding. Depending on which way you look at it, Posbrake both knew that Digdoug would have died and didn't know. Posbrake seems like a pretty thoughtful guy, so I expect that he is aware of this.


I look at Predictions the way I look at "genie of the lamp" wishes. Much rests on the precise wording, and (even more) on what's not said. The prediction didn't say "No matter what you do, O King..." or mention Digdoug specifically. So, I'm with Sixty on this one: Posbrake was told no speaking units would survive, and none did. That tells us nothing about the outcome of the scenario where Digdoug stays put.

I don't think we can say "there's no way Digdoug could have won..." precisely because that wasn't asked, or tried.

That's not how predictions have been shown to generally work. In general predictions are ironclad, but only in what they say. Had Digdoug remained Fate would have offed him anyway. All roads lead to the same end. That's how predictamancy has been shown to work. Fate forces the outcome, but you chose the path.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lilwik » Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:06 pm

Lamech wrote:Had Digdoug remained Fate would have offed him anyway. All roads lead to the same end. That's how predictamancy has been shown to work. Fate forces the outcome, but you chose the path.
That's too strong. Not all roads lead to the same end in two ways. For one way, there is always more than one end that makes a Prediction true and Predictamancers have limited access to the future, which undoubtedly requires them to word their Predictions quite carefully, so they only say what they are sure about, while trying to not be confusing or misleading. For another way, not all roads need to lead to the Prediction being true; there are always going to be roads that would make the Prediction false. Those roads are just so unappealing that there's no chance of them ever being taken. For example, Wanda could have killed herself, and Jillian could have spared Olive's life. There was no chance that they would actually do those things, but the options existed.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Althernai » Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:25 pm

Jacinth and Rubies wrote:True - people who value free will above all other things should avoid Predictamancy - if it does indeed work like quantum physics (which I am not inclined to believe - see below). However, Posbrake values his kingdom and his Dirtamancer even more than he does his free will. Why is free will so precious if you can save your life and the life of others you care for at its expense?

It's valuable because it might allow you to get better outcomes despite being less informed. For example, in this case, it's possible that had Posbrake never talked to the Predictamancer, Digdoug would have stayed at Weatherbug and his traps, fortifications and golem leadership would have made the difference between losing every talking unit and driving back Numlock with only moderate casualties. We don't know that this is what would happen (it's also possible that Digdoug would have died along with Lady Chains and the rest), but it was possible until Posbrake asked for the Prediction. In other words, forcing the future to take a shape and knowing that shape allowed Posbrake to cut his losses, but not doing so might have allowed him to win.

Notably, there are times when Predictions can't be made (if Marie's talk about "cloudiness" is to be believed); because of this I don't think either measurement analogy works for Erfworld time/predictions, because in both the deterministic and quantum analogies, you can always make a measurement.

In that specific example, Marie is not the most reliable of narrators (it's quite likely that she was protecting Wanda). However, as an experimental physicist, I take issue with the idea that you can always make a measurement. Sure, an omnipotent being can always do it and similarly the Titans of Erfworld know all. However, the Predictamacers are mere mortal and like mortals from our world, they have their limitations. We certainly can't make every measurement -- many are either beyond our tools or we just haven't thought of how to do it yet.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby name lips » Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:34 pm

We learned before that not all things are Fated. The death of Wanda's brother, for instance, was not Fated and could have been avoided.

It's not that all future events are set in stone and cannot be changed. But there are some events that are either foreordained by Fate, or else inevitable no matter what choices anybody makes.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lilwik » Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:38 pm

Althernai wrote:We don't know that this is what would happen (it's also possible that Digdoug would have died along with Lady Chains and the rest), but it was possible until Posbrake asked for the Prediction. In other words, forcing the future to take a shape and knowing that shape allowed Posbrake to cut his losses, but not doing so might have allowed him to win.
Not knowing a thing doesn't tend to create additional possibilities in real life, so why would we assume that it works that way in Erfworld? If you have a sealed box and you don't know what is in it, you can imagine there might be a million dollars in the box, but that doesn't make it actually possible. The mere fact that you don't know what's in the box doesn't change what's actually in the box.

Althernai wrote:In that specific example, Marie is not the most reliable of narrators (it's quite likely that she was protecting Wanda).
Marie certainly seemed to be evasive so there's no trusting her about that, but it's really beside the point since we know without a doubt that there are things that Predictamancers can't predict. All casters have limits and taking away all limits would always make a discipline overpowered. Clearly since Predictamancers are so undervalued, then can't be overpowered.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Omnimancer » Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:50 pm

Predictamancers remind me a lot of Greek prophecies. The prediction of a bad thing might itself be the catalyst that causes it to happen.

I think it's important to realize that this doesn't mean all predictamancy is bad, and that every prediction dooms its side. Just that sometimes it backfires. Other times, probably most of the time, it works out fine. But this kind of self-fulfilling prophecy happens often enough to give predictamancy a bad reputation.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lilwik » Wed Feb 26, 2014 8:13 pm

Omnimancer wrote:I think it's important to realize that this doesn't mean all predictamancy is bad, and that every prediction dooms its side. Just that sometimes it backfires. Other times, probably most of the time, it works out fine. But this kind of self-fulfilling prophecy happens often enough to give predictamancy a bad reputation.
That is assuming that Erfworlders are fairly judging Predictamancy. We shouldn't jump to the conclusion that just because Erfworlders are afraid of Predictamancy that they actually have good reason to be afraid of it, especially not after seeing the fall of Goodminton. Predictamancy was doing everything it could to pull Goodminton out of the fire. Predictamancy gave them the leverage they needed to get major concessions out of their deadly enemy, and they thoroughly ruined their own situation by mistrusting Predictamancy.

All that we have seen of Predictamancy suggests that it is a good and very useful discipline that is being terribly misjudged by Erfworlders. We have never seen a Prediction doom a side or any sort of self-fulfilling bad Prediction. We can guess that the Prediction about Weatherbug might have been self-fulfilling, but we have no evidence to suggest that's actually true. Until we see a case of Predictamancy causing something bad to happen, we should probably assume that it's just what it appears to be: an amazing tool for gathering intelligence.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Darth Curious » Wed Feb 26, 2014 9:07 pm

"This guy seems like a match for Parson, with all the unconventional thinking."

which is why Parson is reading his exploits, along with those of the previous storyline....think library
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Omnimancer » Wed Feb 26, 2014 9:42 pm

Lilwik wrote:
Omnimancer wrote:I think it's important to realize that this doesn't mean all predictamancy is bad, and that every prediction dooms its side. Just that sometimes it backfires. Other times, probably most of the time, it works out fine. But this kind of self-fulfilling prophecy happens often enough to give predictamancy a bad reputation.
That is assuming that Erfworlders are fairly judging Predictamancy. We shouldn't jump to the conclusion that just because Erfworlders are afraid of Predictamancy that they actually have good reason to be afraid of it, especially not after seeing the fall of Goodminton. Predictamancy was doing everything it could to pull Goodminton out of the fire. Predictamancy gave them the leverage they needed to get major concessions out of their deadly enemy, and they thoroughly ruined their own situation by mistrusting Predictamancy.

All that we have seen of Predictamancy suggests that it is a good and very useful discipline that is being terribly misjudged by Erfworlders. We have never seen a Prediction doom a side or any sort of self-fulfilling bad Prediction. We can guess that the Prediction about Weatherbug might have been self-fulfilling, but we have no evidence to suggest that's actually true. Until we see a case of Predictamancy causing something bad to happen, we should probably assume that it's just what it appears to be: an amazing tool for gathering intelligence.


Yeah, I think predictamancy is almost certainly beneficial most of the time. But I doubt everyone would be wary of it if there wasn't a grain of truth to the rumors. We don't know that Weatherbug was a self-fulling prophecy, but it definitely seems possible, and that alone is pretty scary.

The other big risk of predictamancy is that it provides absolutely true, but incomplete information. If you try to fight it you'll inevitably fail, and this probably leads to self-fulfilling prophecies that doom sides. But completely trusting the prediction and following it blindly might also lead to disaster, since you might be taking drastic actions to follow a destiny that might not be worded clearly. The safest way to use predictamancy is probably verrrrrry carefully, always wary of the possibility of loopholes and multiple meanings. Acting on unclear information might sometimes be worse than not acting at all.

Aside from predictamancy, can we also talk about changeamancy? This post clarified a few more things about it. For example now we know for sure that changeamancy includes chemical engineering and/or alchemy. It seems likely the field also covers things like material science, or at least the magical quasi medieval equivalent of it.

In addition to creating and enchanting items, it's possible that changeamancers could do things like create gunpowder for bombs and rockets. And the entangling bubblegum attack of a pink dragon might be a changeamancy special. In combat a changeamancer might be able to do things like unleash a cone of acid attack, or summon a sticky web to impede enemies, and other spells that involve summoning materials with harmful properties.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Deezee » Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:10 pm

Yeah, I think predictamancy is almost certainly beneficial most of the time. But I doubt everyone would be wary of it if there wasn't a grain of truth to the rumors. We don't know that Weatherbug was a self-fulling prophecy, but it definitely seems possible, and that alone is pretty scary.

The other big risk of predictamancy is that it provides absolutely true, but incomplete information. If you try to fight it you'll inevitably fail, and this probably leads to self-fulfilling prophecies that doom sides. But completely trusting the prediction and following it blindly might also lead to disaster, since you might be taking drastic actions to follow a destiny that might not be worded clearly. The safest way to use predictamancy is probably verrrrrry carefully, always wary of the possibility of loopholes and multiple meanings. Acting on unclear information might sometimes be worse than not acting at all.

Aside from predictamancy, can we also talk about changeamancy? This post clarified a few more things about it. For example now we know for sure that changeamancy includes chemical engineering and/or alchemy. It seems likely the field also covers things like material science, or at least the magical quasi medieval equivalent of it.

In addition to creating and enchanting items, it's possible that changeamancers could do things like create gunpowder for bombs and rockets. And the entangling bubblegum attack of a pink dragon might be a changeamancy special. In combat a changeamancer might be able to do things like unleash a cone of acid attack, or summon a sticky web to impede enemies, and other spells that involve summoning materials with harmful properties.


One way to interpret is this: You are not necessarily better off asking a predictamancer for information; it may set in motion a self-fulfilling prophecy to your detriment, like if all speaking units were going to die only because Digdoug was not present to save them. But if you have already asked, you are always better off following their prediction, seeing as while there may hypothetically be choices that lead to better outcomes than the one Predicted, you are already fated not to take them.
That said, deciding whether to ask a predictamancer a question is an inherently uninformed question, and especially given that on most such difficult questions the ruler is as likely to choose a bad option as a good one, they are probably better off asking.

On the subject of magic itself, I get the impression that Dirtamancy focuses on terrain, converting it into traps or even units based on the terrain type utilized and being able to alter it in a limited form (mining and burrowing) or on a much grander scale while linked. This might explain why Dirtamancers are capable of altering plants that play a structural role, like the beams Sizemore uses, but are not capable of modifying living plants, which is in the domain of Flower-power. Note that while plants are not units, they do seem to be alive in a meaningful sense in universe; Olive makes a big deal out of it in her first meeting with Wanda, and Flower-power contains the life element while Dirtamancy does not, so it would make sense that Dirtamancers are restricted to non-living plant matter.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lilwik » Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:20 pm

Omnimancer wrote:But I doubt everyone would be wary of it if there wasn't a grain of truth to the rumors.
It seems only natural to me that people would have an irrational fear of Predictamancy. People have a very understandable expectation of forward causation. They get bad news from a Predictamancer and they blame the Prediction because at an emotional level they can't understand backward causation and blame the Prediction for the bad outcome, instead of blaming the bad outcome for the Prediction. Even if Predictamancy never did a single bad thing, I would expect misunderstanding causation alone to give Predictamancy a bad reputation.

Omnimancer wrote:We don't know that Weatherbug was a self-fulfilling prophecy, but it definitely seems possible, and that alone is pretty scary.
I agree that self-fulfilling prophecy is worth watching for every time we encounter Predictamancy. It could happen, but we haven't yet had a clear example of it, so maybe it doesn't happen. In the particular case of Weatherbug it doesn't seem like a serious possibility considering how outnumbered they were, and every warlord seems to think that Digdoug would have made no difference. Warlords are the experts in that area and so they are almost certainly right, while Digdoug's doubts are more likely fueled by guilt and a caster's natural ignorance of combat.

Omnimancer wrote:If you try to fight it you'll inevitably fail, and this probably leads to self-fulfilling prophecies that doom sides.
Why is that probable? If the Prediction is the fall of the side, then struggling to survive should make the Prediction less likely to be true, not more likely. If you are fighting Fate then the Prediction is coming true in spite of giving everyone a warning, not because of itself. In order to be a self-fulfilling prophecy it would need to be especially tricky and trick people into causing the thing that they are trying to prevent. That requires a convoluted situation and it's not something that we should expect.

Omnimancer wrote:But completely trusting the prediction and following it blindly might also lead to disaster, since you might be taking drastic actions to follow a destiny that might not be worded clearly.
The Predictions of a Predictamancer aren't announcements from some supernatural authority that must be accepted as given, no questions asked. A Predictamancer is just a caster like any other, giving advice to a ruler or chief warlord, so if the wording is unclear in any way, the caster can be ordered to clarify it. You can sit down and have a long conversation with the Predictamancer until every aspect of the Prediction is fully understood; there's no need to depend upon interpreting a particular choice of words.

Omnimancer wrote:In addition to creating and enchanting items, it's possible that changemancers could do things like create gunpowder for bombs and rockets.
Fabrication with Motion is Dollamancy, so I suspect that gunpowder, bombs, and especially rockets all require Dollamancy, though I'm sure that a Changemancer would be very useful in conjuring the parts that the Dollamancer needs to build a rocket.

Omnimancer wrote:And the entangling bubblegum attack of a pink dragon might be a changemancy special. In combat a changemancer might be able to do things like unleash a cone of acid attack, or summon a sticky web to impede enemies, and other spells that involve summoning materials with harmful properties.
I think you're probably right about that. It would probably be a lot of fun to see a Changemancer in a fight.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lamech » Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:48 pm

Lilwik wrote:
Althernai wrote:We don't know that this is what would happen (it's also possible that Digdoug would have died along with Lady Chains and the rest), but it was possible until Posbrake asked for the Prediction. In other words, forcing the future to take a shape and knowing that shape allowed Posbrake to cut his losses, but not doing so might have allowed him to win.
Not knowing a thing doesn't tend to create additional possibilities in real life, so why would we assume that it works that way in Erfworld? If you have a sealed box and you don't know what is in it, you can imagine there might be a million dollars in the box, but that doesn't make it actually possible. The mere fact that you don't know what's in the box doesn't change what's actually in the box.

Althernai wrote:In that specific example, Marie is not the most reliable of narrators (it's quite likely that she was protecting Wanda).
Marie certainly seemed to be evasive so there's no trusting her about that, but it's really beside the point since we know without a doubt that there are things that Predictamancers can't predict. All casters have limits and taking away all limits would always make a discipline overpowered. Clearly since Predictamancers are so undervalued, then can't be overpowered.

It might not be just the knowledge. Under some systems of time travel the past cannot be changed. The future cannot be changed. There is one path. But what if you look into the future? If you see something you don't like you will avoid it. Or try to at least.

But that's impossible of course. Now the Hollywood thing to do would have the universe conspire against you in highly improbable ways starting when you try to avoid that unwanted future. The Universe will pick one of solutions that results in you failing. Even if it requires quantum tunneling your brain into the ocean. But the universe isn't bound by causality. It can conspire well before hand. More over it could simply give you a vision of the future you won't try and avoid.

So what does this all have to do with predictamancy? If it functions as above getting a prediction could eliminate a lot of possible ways to resolve a situation. It could be that what generally happens is more favorable paths get eliminated.

Of course if this the case it can be abused too! Consider the Mighty Oracle golem. It can predict the things it will say. Then when it comes time to make the predicted statement it will ponder over how things have went. If they have gone "good" for the ruler, it will say its predicted statement. If they are "bad" it will say something else. But since it can never vary from the prophecy things will must have gone "good".
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby ManaCaster » Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:51 pm

Omnimancer wrote:We don't know that Weatherbug was a self-fulling prophecy, but it definitely seems possible, and that alone is pretty scary.

I think we've had one likely example of a self-fulfilling prophecy thus far. Parson is apparently Fated to defeat Charlie. Charlie appears to be attempting to defy the prophecy. And in his attempt to do so, he ensures Parson will go after him. Up until Charlie's intervention, Parson was just fine with managing a city. Then Charlie's interference puts him back in charge of the war effort and makes things personal enough to make Parson mad at him.

Had Charlie done nothing, Parson almost certainly would have been pressured into fighting him in some other way sooner or later. We know other forces were counting on that. But even so, it still technically qualifies as self-fulfilling.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lilwik » Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:24 am

ManaCaster wrote:I think we've had one likely example of a self-fulfilling prophecy thus far. Parson is apparently Fated to defeat Charlie. Charlie appears to be attempting to defy the prophecy. And in his attempt to do so, he ensures Parson will go after him.
I recognize that as a possibility, but I can't believe it. We know so little about Charlie, but his most clear qualities are cleverness and being manipulative. Plus, he's a caster in a Fate axis discipline, which ought to give him a head start on understanding Predictamancy. That's no guarantee, judging from Wanda, but I still can't believe that Charlie would be as foolish as Wanda and fight directly against Fate. The fact that Charlie tried to get rid of Parson should be considered strong evidence that Charlie doesn't know that Parson is Predicted to defeat Charlie. We don't know what has been Predicted about Parson. Maybe he's only Predicted to be skillful enough to defeat Charlie. Maybe Charlie isn't going after Parson because of any particular Prediction, but instead because Charlie's own cleverness tells him that Parson is a threat.

If a Predictamancer had clearly Predicted that Parson would defeat Charlie and Charlie knew about that Prediction, then it would be truly bizarre if Charlie chose to attack Parson. We can see that course of action would just accelerate the confrontation, so surely Charlie could see it too. Instead, I expect that Charlie would try to make friends with Parson at any cost. That should convince Parson to make Charlie a low-priority target. All it does it buy Charlie time, but that's the best that Charlie could hope for, and Charlie would know that.
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