Digdoug - Episode 7

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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Mr. Goodwraith » Fri Feb 28, 2014 3:39 pm

I'm going to hope against hope that Lady Chains either lost her voice or somehow wasn't in the city when it fell and managed not to be one of the "no surviving speaking units."
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lilwik » Fri Feb 28, 2014 4:27 pm

Gnomeo wrote:Sides avoid Predictamancy because it's "bad luck". This stems from the unreliability of the information received as it is dependent on interpretation.
But we've always seen Predictamancy to be very, very reliable in all of its information. There has never been a Prediction that has failed to come true, and it always comes true exactly as it was stated, with no trickery of words. It has never once been misleading at all. If that happens this time, it will be the first time in the story. I'm sure that the bad luck of hiring a Predictamancer is really the danger that the Predictamancer will give you bad news, like Predict the fall of your side or your own personal croaking. Of course it would have happened anyway, but Erfworlders blame the Predictamancer often enough to give them a bad reputation.

Gnomeo wrote:Posbrake thought he would lose Weatherbug because Predictamancy determined that all speaking units would croak, but Weatherbug held because a non-speaking unit survived. His interpretation of the Predictamancy was incorrect.
Not really. He naturally concluded that if Numloch won the battle then they would take the city. Numloch won the battle exactly as predicted, but they decided to leave the city instead of claiming it. I doubt even a Predictamancer could be expected to foresee bizarre behaviour like that, but the point is that the Predictamancer didn't say anything about what Numloch would do after winning. Posbrake's expectations about that were all his own ideas.

Gnomeo wrote:Now he sends Digdug to fortify a tower because, “The Predictamancer also said we would face a major attack on the City of Homekey, and that it would come by air." What if his interpretation here is incorrect as well? What if the Predictamancer actually said, "the attack will come by heir"?
Then that Predictamancer should face an enforcement council and get his Predictamancy license taken away. He would be a traitor to his discipline, and if Homekey is destroyed because of it then Digdoug would walk into the Magic Kingdom to tell everyone the story. The shame would have no end. From that day forward all Predictamancers would always remember that "heir" sounds like "air".
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby CarniDollMancer » Fri Feb 28, 2014 4:31 pm

Alright. If we're still stuck on discussing Fate here's my take on the situation: Posbrake is the right unit to look at because of his attitudes, specifically his penchant to 'follow the letter rather than the spirit.' He hears what the Fate of Weatherbug is and he adapts the city so that the Fate it has will not have as much of an effect on him. He accepts that what has been Predicted will pass, but considers the specificity of the Prediction and makes his adjustments within the words by removing only the highest value speaking unit from the city.

In other words, Predictions will do exactly what they say they will but yu can do anything you want to achieve that end. Predictions are about the words only, not the spirit. What the caster or receiver of a Prediction intends (the spirit) will not effect the outcome (the letter). Think Delphi's Prediction of the fall of the ruler of Haffaton.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lilwik » Fri Feb 28, 2014 4:49 pm

CarniDollMancer wrote:What the caster or receiver of a Prediction intends (the spirit) will not effect the outcome (the letter). Think Delphi's Prediction of the fall of the ruler of Haffaton.
That was Maya Calendar's Prediction, not Delphi's, and that Prediction was perfectly straight-forward with no tricky wording as far as we know. I'm also pretty sure that the Predictamancer herself knows what her Prediction is supposed to mean. I would be surprised if the Predictamancer were being fed words to say like an actor reading a script, but there's no way to really know.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby mcw0933 » Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:15 pm

Lilwik wrote:But we've always seen Predictamancy to be very, very reliable in all of its information. There has never been a Prediction that has failed to come true, and it always comes true exactly as it was stated, with no trickery of words. It has never once been misleading at all.


I think you impart much too much rationality onto the average Erfworlder. To us forum readers, yes, you're completely correct. What is misleading, perhaps, to Erfworlders is that upon hearing a prediction they'll likely envision a different outcome than what occurs. Certainly that's true in Posbrake's case, and Banhammer's.

People asking "what does the future hold" don't just want an answer, they want their mental image of the answer to match the future outcome. And since that tends not to happen, that's what gives Predictamancy a sketchy reputation (to Erfworlders).
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby CarniDollMancer » Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:32 pm

Thats right. Thank you for the reminder about Maya, Lilwik. But I still do not think they know the details, but get just the letters, the basics, the parameters. I am not saying you are wrong or that I am right, because I admittedly came up with that theory on my lunch break and didn't have time to troubleshoot it before I decided to post it. That is my feeling on the subject with no source to back it. But I am pretty sure that there is nothing to say that view is invalid (accepting sourced dissent, but I see no reason to believe that the caster hired by Homekey knew one way or the other whether Digdoug would be present, Or that Maya knew who the ruler of Haffaton would be at the time of her Prediction.) And once again I'm writing this in crunch time and if totally off base will withdraw, but I wanted to put the thought out there.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Althernai » Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:55 pm

Lilwik wrote:Not knowing a thing doesn't tend to create additional possibilities in real life, so why would we assume that it works that way in Erfworld? If you have a sealed box and you don't know what is in it, you can imagine there might be a million dollars in the box, but that doesn't make it actually possible. The mere fact that you don't know what's in the box doesn't change what's actually in the box.

It does work that way in real life, although the thing that reduces the number of possibilities is not so much the act of knowing in and of itself as the measurement process without which you cannot know. Of course, it only works this way for quantum phenomena so unless your sealed box is somehow rigged to be linked to a quantum effect (see the Schroedinger's Cat scenario for one such sealed box example), it won't work. We don't know whether predictions are an observation that changes the things being observed or one that simply perceives what is there without any other effects.

I also wouldn't be so sure that they can't be wrong. We haven't seen any examples yet, but Jojo does say that you can fight fate and win so it's not that unlikely that the Carnymancers have some trick that might do it.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lilwik » Fri Feb 28, 2014 7:07 pm

Althernai wrote:I also wouldn't be so sure that they can't be wrong. We haven't seen any examples yet, but Jojo does say that you can fight fate and win so it's not that unlikely that the Carnymancers have some trick that might do it.
Actually it is quite unlikely, because we have more than just failing to see an example of a Predictamancer getting something wrong. We also have Book 2, Page 90 where two Predictamancers acknowledge total confidence in the infallibility of their Prediction. Their Prediction was that Parson was going to get through the portal, and let's not forget that the opposing force was a group of Carnymancers. So if Carnymancy is capable of making a Prediction wrong then it seems that the Predictamancers of the Magic Kingdom have never heard of it.

We also don't know exactly what Jojo was talking about. Maybe his fighting Fate means only lesser things than avoiding a Prediction and that's why Predictamancers can be so assured of their Predictions. There have to be some limits. Whatever magic was going on with Sylvia sure seems worthy of being called manipulating Fate, so maybe Jojo was only talking about that sort of thing.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby ManaCaster » Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:39 pm

Lilwik wrote:Actually it is quite unlikely, because we have more than just failing to see an example of a Predictamancer getting something wrong. We also have Book 2, Page 90 where two Predictamancers acknowledge total confidence in the infallibility of their Prediction. Their Prediction was that Parson was going to get through the portal, and let's not forget that the opposing force was a group of Carnymancers. So if Carnymancy is capable of making a Prediction wrong then it seems that the Predictamancers of the Magic Kingdom have never heard of it.

Notice though, that Marie was genuinely terrified when Jojo tried to use that scroll on Parson. By the time those 2 expressed complete confidence, the scroll was in Parson's possession.

It hasn't been precisely explained, but it was mentioned by Delphie that Fate has some sort of debt associated with it. Possibly some sort of karma score. Maybe, the bigger the debt, the harder it is to fight it. The fate magic surrounding Parson is utterly Erf shattering. It may simply be that the Carnymancers present didn't have the skill to fight against Parson's fate, especially without the right tools available. And Fate was letting the Predictamancers know that all was in hand.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lilwik » Fri Feb 28, 2014 10:28 pm

ManaCaster wrote:Notice though, that Marie was genuinely terrified when Jojo tried to use that scroll on Parson. By the time those 2 expressed complete confidence, the scroll was in Parson's possession.
What Marie was terrified over and what she was later confident in are two unconnected issues. At no point was she confident in Parson's survival. We don't even know if Parson has a Prediction that requires his survival. She only got confident when it was Predicted that Parson would get through the portal, and even then she was only confident that he would get through and was explicitly willing to put herself in danger to ensure that he survived going through. So what I see is a worried and cautious caster who suddenly becomes totally confident when a Prediction is made. Prediction is what she trusts; everything else about the situation is what worries her.

It's unfortunate that we don't know what those three (well, four) prophecies about Parson actually say. We can't even be sure they were all made by Predictamancy. Some of them might be better described as hopes rather than Predictions, perhaps even the one that the Predictamancers are holding on to. Even Predictamancers don't know everything. Knowing that detail would clear up so much uncertainty about several issues.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Chit Rule Railroad » Sat Mar 01, 2014 4:52 am

Lamech wrote:I think one of the main advantages of most flying units is well... flying. Plus pretty most fliers seem to be siege free beside dwagons. (And those are arkentool only.) TV has a handful of fire birds, but that seems ineffective when a dirtamancer can put out infernos. (Plus they are probably really slow on the ground.) Otherwise you have Unipegaturs, Orlies, doombats, Gwiffions, archons, goyles, all siege free. They would need to hop the garrison walls and still open themselves to attack.

Moreover, in this case they can't just land in the courtyard. Homekey has a roofed atrium like Spacerock did.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Omnimancer » Sat Mar 01, 2014 2:15 pm

Lilwik wrote:
ManaCaster wrote:Notice though, that Marie was genuinely terrified when Jojo tried to use that scroll on Parson. By the time those 2 expressed complete confidence, the scroll was in Parson's possession.
What Marie was terrified over and what she was later confident in are two unconnected issues. At no point was she confident in Parson's survival. We don't even know if Parson has a Prediction that requires his survival. She only got confident when it was Predicted that Parson would get through the portal, and even then she was only confident that he would get through and was explicitly willing to put herself in danger to ensure that he survived going through. So what I see is a worried and cautious caster who suddenly becomes totally confident when a Prediction is made. Prediction is what she trusts; everything else about the situation is what worries her.

It's unfortunate that we don't know what those three (well, four) prophecies about Parson actually say. We can't even be sure they were all made by Predictamancy. Some of them might be better described as hopes rather than Predictions, perhaps even the one that the Predictamancers are holding on to. Even Predictamancers don't know everything. Knowing that detail would clear up so much uncertainty about several issues.


We also don't know if a prediction is 100% irrevocable. Could Carnymancy thwart one?
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lilwik » Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:17 pm

Omnimancer wrote:We also don't know if a prediction is 100% irrevocable. Could Carnymancy thwart one?
How could Carnymancy do that without Predictamancers knowing about it? Of course there are some abilities that are closely guarded secrets; we know that from Thinkamancy, but in order to keep this secret no Carnymancer could ever defy a Prediction in such a way that a Predictamancer could ever notice for the entire history of the Magic Kingdom. Once something like that gets out it would be passed down the generations of Predictamancers and Marie would surely have heard about it. The fact that there were four Carnymancers whose stated goal was in direct opposition to the Prediction should have given the Predictamancers cause to wonder about what those Carnymancers might do.

So either Carnymancy can't thwart a Prediction, or else the ability is such a well guarded secret that it can never be used in any situation where there are non-Carnymancers around to view the Prediction failing, making it almost useless. Either way, it means that Jojo wasn't telling Parson that he could escape a Prediction, since that is either impossible or else too big a secret to be blabbing to an enemy.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby ManaCaster » Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:54 pm

Lilwik wrote:
Omnimancer wrote:We also don't know if a prediction is 100% irrevocable. Could Carnymancy thwart one?
How could Carnymancy do that without Predictamancers knowing about it? Of course there are some abilities that are closely guarded secrets; we know that from Thinkamancy, but in order to keep this secret no Carnymancer could ever defy a Prediction in such a way that a Predictamancer could ever notice for the entire history of the Magic Kingdom. Once something like that gets out it would be passed down the generations of Predictamancers and Marie would surely have heard about it. The fact that there were four Carnymancers whose stated goal was in direct opposition to the Prediction should have given the Predictamancers cause to wonder about what those Carnymancers might do.

So either Carnymancy can't thwart a Prediction, or else the ability is such a well guarded secret that it can never be used in any situation where there are non-Carnymancers around to view the Prediction failing, making it almost useless. Either way, it means that Jojo wasn't telling Parson that he could escape a Prediction, since that is either impossible or else too big a secret to be blabbing to an enemy.

It is possible for them to both be right in a way. Olive Branch and Wanda Firebaugh both believed that you technically can defy a Prediction. It's just that Fate will try again and again. So Carnymancy might be able to drag things out, but sooner or later, Fate will try to catch up. And the harder Fate is denied, the bigger the associated debt will grow. If too much bad karma builds up, someone defying their Fate may well end up fighting the very Erf itself. Ultimately, nothing short of apotheosis will outright spare them. But as long as they are clever enough, they can delay their Fate for an indefinite period of time. Remember, Marie said that Predictamancy is more about the what. It cannot predict the how, the when and the where.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby mcw0933 » Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:01 pm

There's a third option. They can rig things so the prediction remains literally true, but turns out in a favorable way that satisfies it.

Predictamancers don't know everything, only what matters.

My guess is that's what scared Marie about Jojo being on the scene. It means her confidence about anything not explictly predicted is shaken. So a prediction that Parson goes through is doubly comforting: it strongly suggests he lives, and gets out of Jojo's reach.

But I wonder if there was a potential "natural 1" outcome where he went through as a corpse for Wanda to decrypt.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby joosy » Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:10 pm

Lilwik wrote:
Omnimancer wrote:We also don't know if a prediction is 100% irrevocable. Could Carnymancy thwart one?
How could Carnymancy do that without Predictamancers knowing about it? Of course there are some abilities that are closely guarded secrets; we know that from Thinkamancy, but in order to keep this secret no Carnymancer could ever defy a Prediction in such a way that a Predictamancer could ever notice for the entire history of the Magic Kingdom. Once something like that gets out it would be passed down the generations of Predictamancers and Marie would surely have heard about it. The fact that there were four Carnymancers whose stated goal was in direct opposition to the Prediction should have given the Predictamancers cause to wonder about what those Carnymancers might do.

So either Carnymancy can't thwart a Prediction, or else the ability is such a well guarded secret that it can never be used in any situation where there are non-Carnymancers around to view the Prediction failing, making it almost useless. Either way, it means that Jojo wasn't telling Parson that he could escape a Prediction, since that is either impossible or else too big a secret to be blabbing to an enemy.


They may not be able to thwart a Prediction but perhaps they can alter it by forcing the conditions for the Prediction to come true to occur at a different time and place, or to come true but have the consequences not be as great or even reversed.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Werebiscuit » Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:46 pm

Omnimancer wrote:We also don't know if a prediction is 100% irrevocable. Could Carnymancy thwart one?
Lilwik wrote:We also don't know exactly what Jojo was talking about. Maybe his fighting Fate means only lesser things than avoiding a Prediction and that's why Predictamancers can be so assured of their Predictions. There have to be some limits. Whatever magic was going on with Sylvia sure seems worthy of being called manipulating Fate, so maybe Jojo was only talking about that sort of thing.


We have to be careful what we mean by 100% irrevocable and thwarting Fate. I believe the 2 aren't mutually exclusive. Jojo only forestalled Sylvia's eventual croaking which could be counted as thwarting Fate since incapacity lasts usually only one turn before you either heal or croak. What Jojo did was to use magic to keep Sylvia incapacitated till he got the "right result" of her being healed. He "rigged" her Fate. He used his Carnymancy the only way he could in the absence of a healer. A Healomancer could also have been used to thwart Sylvia's Fate in this way however even the best Healomancer will croak eventually so even their Fate is 100% irrevocable. Likely a Luckamancer would have had the same effect on Sylvia by different means... so thwarting Fate is not the province Carnymancers alone.

You may believe that what happened in those example above is not thwarting Fate... but for that to be true her Fate has to be defined as "croaking" and not " croaking from her incapacity at that time" which is what I mean about being careful by what we mean in my original statement. She was not predicted to die at that time but it was expected that it would be her Fate.
On another point I'm not sure what you mean by 100% irrevocable... can something be 50% irrevocable ..or do you mean that somethings can't be denied (lets say the letter of a prediction) but that the outcome can be negated or mitigated ( the spirit of the prediction can be changed).
To use an example Lets say that we've predicted that an arrow fired into the air will fall... we know it will. However if we can fire it hard enough it will go into orbit... it will continually fall towards the earth...without hitting it.

Someone already posted about the "genie effect" where the wording of a wish is important to avoid unwished for consequences. I think the obverse may be true for predictions... if you know exactly how a thing is predicted then the circumstances of the prediction can possibly be manipulated so that the effect of the prediction can be reversed from it's percieved effects when the prediction was made while still allowing that prediction to be true. That's what I think Carnymancers meant by fighting Fate.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Werebiscuit » Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:56 pm

joosy wrote:
They may not be able to thwart a Prediction but perhaps they can alter it by forcing the conditions for the Prediction to come true to occur at a different time and place, or to come true but have the consequences not be as great or even reversed.


I'd note that forcing a prediction to occur at a different time/place can only be true if the time and place are not specified in the prediction.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lilwik » Sat Mar 01, 2014 7:05 pm

ManaCaster wrote:Olive Branch and Wanda Firebaugh both believed that you technically can defy a Prediction. It's just that Fate will try again and again.
I know what you mean. Wanda and Olive both believed that Jillian might be killed. Wanda thought killing Jillian would be a mistake because something worse would take Jillian's place. That seems like a natural expectation since Wanda had been burned by Fate before and was surely eagerly waiting to see Olive get stomped on by Fate. In the end, it seems that they were both wrong; by the time Olive got around to actually killing Jillian it was already too late.

So really all that Book 0 tells us is the opinion of two casters who are neither Predictamancers nor Carnymancers. We should trust Wanda least of all since we know how poorly she understood Predictamancy earlier in that story. Olive was a Florist which is a non-Fate-aligned discipline, and Ace told us that alignment matters: "Dollamancy is Fate magic, so I know something about that. Jetstone must've been fated to have a Dollamancer." (Book 2, Text 30) In both cases, I'm going to trust a Predictamancer's opinion more.

Everything else seems like fair game for Carnymancers. If Carnymancy can do what Jojo did for Sylvia, then very little seems to be beyond its power. It seems highly unlikely that Carnymancy can stop a Prediction from coming true, but much like an evil genie, I expect that a Carnymancer can make a Prediction come true in the worst possible way. I doubt one would even have needed Carnymancy to kill Parson as he stepped through the portal, but I expect a Carnymancer could cast a spell that causes a Prediction to come true in a bad way many turns in advance. That seems like the theme of Carnymancy to me; it's a discipline of trickery, not a discipline of ultimate power. I guess that within the boundaries of what is already possible a Carnymancer can rig anything to happen, but they are quite limited at doing more exotic things. Rhyme-o-mancy is another kind of Stagemancy and it also has wildly broad powers, but only in enhancing things that are already possible by improving focus and boosting other spells. Maybe Carnymancy is like that.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby ManaCaster » Sat Mar 01, 2014 7:29 pm

Lilwik wrote:So really all that Book 0 tells us is the opinion of two casters who are neither Predictamancers nor Carnymancers. We should trust Wanda least of all since we know how poorly she understood Predictamancy earlier in that story. Olive was a Florist which is a non-Fate-aligned discipline, and Ace told us that alignment matters: "Dollamancy is Fate magic, so I know something about that. Jetstone must've been fated to have a Dollamancer." (Book 2, Text 30) In both cases, I'm going to trust a Predictamancer's opinion more.

Wanda would have received plenty of chances to consult with Maya on what in the world had happened by that point. Plus, when she said that Fate would rig things when trying to deal with Olive, Marie, a Predictamancer, outright agreed with her.

As to Olive, not only would she have had a chance to consult Maya, she is also the daughter of the strongest Carnymancer in the entire world and has performed many caster links with him. A certain Carnymancer who is fighting some mysterious godlike enemy that can plant stuff in people's heads. A certain carnymancer who is trying to get rid of Parson, who has some sort of Fate involving him. Olive isn't some inept novice like Wanda was. She was level 12, highly experienced, and had been dealing with Fate for some time.
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