Digdoug - Episode 8

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Re: Digdoug - Episode 8

Postby King Mir » Tue Mar 04, 2014 3:34 am

Mathamancer wrote:What we know of the prediction:
The Predictamancer also said we would face a major attack on the City of Homekey, and that it would come by air. This information is especially included in your secrecy order.


1) The City of Homekey will:
a) Face a major attack [...major attack on the City of Homekey...] AND
b) Be under Homekey's control when the attack comes [...we would face...] AND
c) The attack will come by air

2) What is not explicitly stated in the prediction is:
a) The name of the attacking side
b) Whether the attacker or defender wins
c) Whether the attack is by combat (perhaps a political attack via skywriting, for example? Or maybe the Prince of Delkey will shout insulting things at King Posbrake from a flying mount?)
d) Whether it is THIS city of Homekey (could a Carneymancer rig the game by swapping city names, say so that Weatherbug becomes Homekey and vice versa?)
e) Whether Homekey is the capital at the time (If Homekey can secure another Capital site, they can ensure survival by moving the capital)
f) When the attack will take place (the predicition could potentially be deferred indefinitely if the capital were moved, the city razed, and no significant force belonging to Homekey ever gathered there again)
g) Whether Homekey is the side that we care about when it comes true (perhaps they could spin off a new side, move all of their resources and their king to it, and leave the heir they promised to pop with the one city right before the attack in a tragic sacrifice play)
h) Whether Homekey will be defending or attacking when it goes down (Homekey loses city to Side A, units go Barbarian and move in to take it back, find that Side B is fighting both them and Side A in a major attack)

I'm sure there are many ways to rig the game so that the prediction either:
a) Comes true, but in a relatively harmless way (the attack, though major, is not devastating)
b) Comes true, but someone other than Homekey suffers for it (hurting the attacker more than Homekey, true to Homekey's asymmetric warfare strategy)
c) Is put on a very long-term hold (but comes back when a vengeance when the hold is up)
This is a good analysis, but if the solution is to come from a carnimancer, and a good one, then there's one other aspect that you can be sure of: the house always wins. A carnimancer would not only foil the prediction, but play it to his advantage. So it would not be enough to swap the capital -- a king may think of such a plan, but a carni can do better.

This suggests a new question: How can an major attack on the City of Homekey by air be to Homekey's advantage? Ideas:
1)A political attack by Delkey can easily be imagined to go horribly wrong.
2)Backstab the enemy while their forces are committed to the capital fight. This way the attack is their own undoing. Trouble is, how to make this happen if you don't know who the attacker will be?
3)The city of Homekey encounters a tornado or hurricane. But with dirtamancer and carnimancer protections, it is not only prevented from harming the city, but is harnessed to provide permanent military advantage to the side.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 8

Postby King Mir » Tue Mar 04, 2014 3:49 am

Lilwik wrote:I would have said that reputation is the most important thing in the world to a Predictamancer, so a Predictamancer would never lie. But then I immediately thought of Delphie, and realized that sometimes Predictamancers do lie. It's hard to know what's real.

Here's a crazy theory. Maybe it was neither luck nor conspiracy that lead Digdoug straight to Dove. Maybe it was Carnymancy. A bit of debris deflects an arrow and saves Sylvia's life; that wasn't luck; that was Carnymancy, and if Carnymancy can do things like that, then what would a group of unemployed Carnymancers spend their days doing in the Magic Kingdom when they have no good use for their juice? I imagine they spend their days twisting Fate around their fingers in a quiet competition to arrange to be the one to meet whoever next comes into the Magic Kingdom looking to hire Carnymancer. Maybe whenever anyone goes looking for a Carnymancer some Carnymancer just happens to be in the first place you look.
If there is a trap like that, I'd think it would not be toward casters looking for Carnymancers, but rather Casters visiting the magic kingdom for the first time. No one could be a better mark.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 8

Postby technicalvault » Tue Mar 04, 2014 6:28 am

Every form of magic in Erfworld seems to have it's downsides, some more well known to the wider world than others. Luckamancers to give luck have to take it from elsewhere. Thinkamancers can mess with your head. Carnymancy seems to be distinct from Luckamancy in how it works, a Carnymancer can change the rules, a temporary warp on reality. I think it's got a bad rep because it's like playing an RPG and someone introducing Fluxx cards into the game. You've worked really hard to build up really high walls and suddenly the Master Carny changes the rules so that for one turn everyone in the hex walks on the walls rather than on the floor but with the tradeoff that the city cannot be taken that turn and siege is useless. You're suddenly faced with a massive infantry battle you weren't expecting and next turn you'll have to defend the city with what survives.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 8

Postby Xarx » Tue Mar 04, 2014 7:37 am

Mathamancer wrote:3)The city of Homekey encounters a tornado or hurricane.

Weather seems to be a permanent terrain feature in Erfworld. Meaning you could encounter a hurricane only in a hurricane hex - presumably no-one would build a city in one, but you might encounter them out at sea. The mind boggles at the idea of a tornado hex. :shock:
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 8

Postby Archaic » Tue Mar 04, 2014 8:05 am

Working on the assumption that these episodes are meant to give us knowledge about the workings of Erfworld that have direct relevance to the main plot, and assuming that during the course of the following Digdoug episodes we find out that Carnymancy can indeed rig (already made) predictions to some extent....

I'd wonder what predictions relating to himself Charlie is aware of (perhaps through his spies with the Thinkermancers?), and just how many of those that either he himself, or the group of Carny's that he associates with, would be able to twist to his own advantage.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 8

Postby King Mir » Tue Mar 04, 2014 9:57 am

Xarx wrote:
Mathamancer wrote:3)The city of Homekey encounters a tornado or hurricane.

Weather seems to be a permanent terrain feature in Erfworld. Meaning you could encounter a hurricane only in a hurricane hex - presumably no-one would build a city in one, but you might encounter them out at sea. The mind boggles at the idea of a tornado hex. :shock:
No, I don't think this is the case. Except in Weatherbug which, given the name, doesn't tell you anything.

But if Homekey did become a Tornado hex, that would fulfill the prophesy, I think.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 8

Postby NYbear » Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:03 am

0beron wrote:There's always going to be trade-offs and backlash. If the two casters work together (or even link, all the better) then here is how I think it would work:


Just as a reminder during some of the speculation, only Thinkamancers can link. So 2 non-thinkamancer casters can certainly work together, but only in the mundane sense. (Not that it can't be powerful, we saw the power of using multiple casters in FAQ's powerful defense strat, Ace+Cubbins, etc)
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 8

Postby Free Radical » Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:37 am

King Mir wrote:No, I don't think this is the case. Except in Weatherbug which, given the name, doesn't tell you anything.

No, they do seem to be permanent terrain features. DigDoug explains rain hexes here:
Drying out a city was impossible, of course. Rain hexes were the Titans’ work. They served as headwaters for all the world’s streams and rivers.

If rain hexes moved about, they couldn't serve as headwaters for rivers, and he would have said "drying out this city was impossible" instead of "drying out a city was impossible".
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 8

Postby cheeseaholic » Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:54 am

I'd like to point out that you can, in fact, fight fate. And win. But there's normally a cost involved.

"“She could try. But it would be a dire mistake,” said Wanda. “Either something would go wrong and you would escape again, or you would perish. But then, something worse would take your place. Worse for her, I mean. Some instrument of Fate that Olive would like even less than you. And she certainly doesn’t like you. Olive knows she would suffer, for having turned away from Fate.”"

http://www.erfworld.com/2012/12/inner-p ... isode-055/

Perhaps a carnie can help avoid some/all of the cost?



Also, I have to wonder if Charlie is helping the carnies out with upkeep or finding jobs. Carnies stick together.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 8

Postby 0beron » Tue Mar 04, 2014 11:19 am

bladestorm wrote:Or the Carny could modify the unmentioned details of the Fate. Or shifting the undesired Fate to Creen while accepting a Fate that Creen has but doesn't know about-- a trade of one fixed point for another.
Yes, the first part of your post is what I was referring to with my theory. I imagine there being several points in the future that all have the Fated details in common, but all other details exist in every possible combination. So you pick the future point that has the un-Fated details which are most favorable to you. I don't know if it has a formal name, but this is like a stupid-world version/theory of reality, where every single decision we make causes the universe to split into multiple copies where in each one we make a different decision. Except because Fate intervenes, some of those copies/paths don't exist/are impossible.

As for your second theory, very interesting. It's possible, but I think only if the Fate isn't specific enough. If the Fate includes Posbroke or the side or anything identifying, then shifting it onto someone else would change the Fate, something I don't think Carnies are capable of. Carnies seem to find loopholes and tricks, rather than completely break the rules. To use a card-game metaphor, Carnies seem to keep Aces up their sleeve, whereas what you propose would be like removing cards from the deck, or introducing a new card that says "I win".

NYbear wrote:Just as a reminder during some of the speculation, only Thinkamancers can link. So 2 non-thinkamancer casters can certainly work together, but only in the mundane sense.
I am aware, I was suggesting that Posbroke could make use of a Thinkamancer as well.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 8

Postby 0beron » Tue Mar 04, 2014 11:25 am

cheeseaholic wrote:I'd like to point out that you can, in fact, fight fate. And win. But there's normally a cost involved.

"“She could try. But it would be a dire mistake,” said Wanda. “Either something would go wrong and you would escape again, or you would perish. But then, something worse would take your place. Worse for her, I mean. Some instrument of Fate that Olive would like even less than you. And she certainly doesn’t like you. Olive knows she would suffer, for having turned away from Fate.”"

http://www.erfworld.com/2012/12/inner-p ... isode-055/

Perhaps a carnie can help avoid some/all of the cost?
I'm not sure I'd call that fighting Fate, and I certainly wouldn't call it winning, if you suffer the same outcome eventually. I do not recall the details of the Prediction about Olive, and I'm not even sure we know the exact original wording, but recall that Predictions are often misinterpretted. Wanda and Olive think it's Jillian who must be the one to croak the Overlady, but that detail may never have been defined in the actual Prediction. Like I was saying in my theory, there could be many different futures that fit the Prediction without involving Jillian. Kill Jillian, and you just suffer one of those alternative futures.

Wanda is biased from her experience to think that she is being made by Fate to suffer, when in reality it's probably just a completely cold mechanic. Her actions prevented any possible futures where she didn't suffer, so she had to walk down painful paths instead because those were all that remained to take her to her Fate. Fate didn't punish her, she simply screwed herself over without knowing it. At least that's how it can be seen under my theory of the future and Fate.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 8

Postby bladestorm » Tue Mar 04, 2014 12:22 pm

0beron wrote:As for your second theory, very interesting. It's possible, but I think only if the Fate isn't specific enough. If the Fate includes Posbroke or the side or anything identifying, then shifting it onto someone else would change the Fate, something I don't think Carnies are capable of. Carnies seem to find loopholes and tricks, rather than completely break the rules. To use a card-game metaphor, Carnies seem to keep Aces up their sleeve, whereas what you propose would be like removing cards from the deck, or introducing a new card that says "I win".

I was thinking more of (and to use the card analogy) something like this:
We have four lucky ladies here, one queen for each suite. Queen of Hearts, Spades, Clubs and Diamonds. I shall lay them all face down. You pick any one, and hold it in your hand, but don't let me see it. I will guess which one you have.
<card is drawn, and the mark hold the Queen of Spades in his hands>
Now, I will shuffle the three remaining cards, and wave the magic wand at your card.
First card is Queen of Hearts. Second card is Queen of Hearts. And the third card is ALSO the Queen of Hearts. Therefore, my good man, you must also have the Queen of Hearts.
<The mark smirks smugly> Ha! I win, I have the Queen of Spades. <Mark slams down the Queen of Hearts> Huh?
Thank you, come again. And just to show I am a good sport, you can have your watch back. And your wallet.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 8

Postby 0beron » Tue Mar 04, 2014 12:32 pm

Ok I think I understand. Not sure I agree, because that would still involve changing the specifics of what is Fated, assuming I understand correctly. If Posbroke is currently holding the Spade as you say, so to speak, then giving him a Heart is a change to what he's currently got, even if you're copying it from someone else.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 8

Postby joosy » Tue Mar 04, 2014 12:33 pm

I also find it interesting that another term for a barbarian caster is "free". That could have some implications as to how some casters view being bound by Duty to a side or Overlord/King/Queen.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 8

Postby 0beron » Tue Mar 04, 2014 12:47 pm

joosy wrote:I also find it interesting that another term for a barbarian caster is "free". That could have some implications as to how some casters view being bound by Duty to a side or Overlord/King/Queen.
Oh, yeah! I totally meant to comment on that, and something else, before I got distracted by future-talk.
I find the 'free" term to be interesting and also a bit ironic, considering that they charge for their work, sometimes for more than it's technically worth.
And on a related note, it's interesting to hear that there are sides who forbid/limit access to the MK. I wonder what brings that about, if it's a decision of the Ruler being hateful of magic, a caster who pissed someone off in the MK so he's not welcome, or any other possibilities. I wonder if there are sides who have tried to break MK rules before like Parson has, and have consequently been banned?
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 8

Postby joosy » Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:57 pm

0beron wrote:
joosy wrote:I also find it interesting that another term for a barbarian caster is "free". That could have some implications as to how some casters view being bound by Duty to a side or Overlord/King/Queen.
Oh, yeah! I totally meant to comment on that, and something else, before I got distracted by future-talk.
I find the 'free" term to be interesting and also a bit ironic, considering that they charge for their work, sometimes for more than it's technically worth.
And on a related note, it's interesting to hear that there are sides who forbid/limit access to the MK. I wonder what brings that about, if it's a decision of the Ruler being hateful of magic, a caster who pissed someone off in the MK so he's not welcome, or any other possibilities. I wonder if there are sides who have tried to break MK rules before like Parson has, and have consequently been banned?


I wonder that as well.. back to the "free' term:

We know casters are rare to pop and that the Magic Kingdom is full of 'barbarian' casters. I wondered why those casters weren't falling over themselves to pledge loyalty to sides that are caster deficient. Is it because of snooty Royalist rulers who disdain anything labelled 'barbarian' except out of necessity? Perhaps there is a greater upkeep cost for non-homegrown casters? Maybe there is a stigma/bad luck superstition attached to casters who survive their sides downfall.

I'd like to think that once they are 'free' casters begin to realize what few other Erfworlders can fathom much less experience: Freedom - bound to no Duty but their own.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 8

Postby 0beron » Tue Mar 04, 2014 2:43 pm

Well I think part of it is finding that freedom, and part of it is a degree of suspicion from capital sides. Barbarian casters would have to Turn to a new side, and it's common knowledge that Turned units have lower Loyalty, so having a unit with that much power on your side who isn't heavily loyal is probably something Rulers are wary of. Further, Rulers would basiclaly have to spend time and energy convincing the Barbarian that this is a side they want to become part of, like a sales pitch basically. Look at Tisha's story, she took a long time to accept a side's offer to Turn.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 8

Postby Jacinth and Rubies » Tue Mar 04, 2014 3:28 pm

joosy wrote:We know casters are rare to pop and that the Magic Kingdom is full of 'barbarian' casters. I wondered why those casters weren't falling over themselves to pledge loyalty to sides that are caster deficient. Is it because of snooty Royalist rulers who disdain anything labelled 'barbarian' except out of necessity? Perhaps there is a greater upkeep cost for non-homegrown casters? Maybe there is a stigma/bad luck superstition attached to casters who survive their sides downfall.

I'd like to think that once they are 'free' casters begin to realize what few other Erfworlders can fathom much less experience: Freedom - bound to no Duty but their own.


I suspect that they would throw themselves at sides if the MK didn't have their barter/Rands system in place, and with no demand/will to take on caster work externally, I suspect the MK economy would be considerably poorer (though perhaps still viable). Still, we know that not all disciplines are equal in demand, and thus some people (Dirtamancers) are filthy rich, while others (Hippies, Carnys?) are very poor. Upkeep is upkeep, though - and is probably pretty high for casters. What good is freedom if you are only free to disband or barely meet your upkeep?

I don't think that Freedom is the mere absence of Duty; after all, the eradication of one's Duty (if it can be well and truly eliminated) may not actually open up the largest number of possibilities for an individual, and simply opening up a large number of possibilities may not open up very many attractive or enjoyable ones; there may be better choices with fewer overall options.

(Speaking of which, we haven't really seen what happens when Upkeep is not met - only that there are multiple ways of meeting Upkeep for units, and know that if the "essential" portion of that upkeep isn't met, the unit disbands. The Hippies seem to have some capacity for farming, but what of the other disciplines?)
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 8

Postby multilis » Tue Mar 04, 2014 4:09 pm

If you join a side, they can order you to do things, disband you, etc.

In magic kingdom, as long as you can make enough income from producing scrolls all day you are relatively safe and free. If you need more income you can take some risks as mercenary.

In this case, we are dealing with Charlie's allied casters and Charlie may normally be a good source of income for them seeing as how eager they were to help his side. Charlie might even be involved in this current situation, given them a tip and sharing in the income as a result, as well as learning how his enemy fate can be defeated.

Charlie would have use to quietly horde *lots* of scrolls in his private stash even if he had no other immediate use for casters... so whenever the asking price is low (canaries are desperate), he likely provides work.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 8

Postby MadZuri » Tue Mar 04, 2014 4:55 pm

Rolan7 wrote:
It's possible that carneymancers can break those rules. Remember Sylvia? She was supposed to die, but her fate was changed and safeguarded... at great price.


Jojo never really broke that rule, though. Sylvia was supposed to croak in a fire in a garrison. Jojo just delayed that fate. Not only did she croak that way later, but she was also dusted that way. This should show you that carnies can't break fate. They can delay it. Maybe they can change how one gets to it, but they can't change it.
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