This is a good analysis, but if the solution is to come from a carnimancer, and a good one, then there's one other aspect that you can be sure of: the house always wins. A carnimancer would not only foil the prediction, but play it to his advantage. So it would not be enough to swap the capital -- a king may think of such a plan, but a carni can do better.Mathamancer wrote:What we know of the prediction:The Predictamancer also said we would face a major attack on the City of Homekey, and that it would come by air. This information is especially included in your secrecy order.
1) The City of Homekey will:
a) Face a major attack [...major attack on the City of Homekey...] AND
b) Be under Homekey's control when the attack comes [...we would face...] AND
c) The attack will come by air
2) What is not explicitly stated in the prediction is:
a) The name of the attacking side
b) Whether the attacker or defender wins
c) Whether the attack is by combat (perhaps a political attack via skywriting, for example? Or maybe the Prince of Delkey will shout insulting things at King Posbrake from a flying mount?)
d) Whether it is THIS city of Homekey (could a Carneymancer rig the game by swapping city names, say so that Weatherbug becomes Homekey and vice versa?)
e) Whether Homekey is the capital at the time (If Homekey can secure another Capital site, they can ensure survival by moving the capital)
f) When the attack will take place (the predicition could potentially be deferred indefinitely if the capital were moved, the city razed, and no significant force belonging to Homekey ever gathered there again)
g) Whether Homekey is the side that we care about when it comes true (perhaps they could spin off a new side, move all of their resources and their king to it, and leave the heir they promised to pop with the one city right before the attack in a tragic sacrifice play)
h) Whether Homekey will be defending or attacking when it goes down (Homekey loses city to Side A, units go Barbarian and move in to take it back, find that Side B is fighting both them and Side A in a major attack)
I'm sure there are many ways to rig the game so that the prediction either:
a) Comes true, but in a relatively harmless way (the attack, though major, is not devastating)
b) Comes true, but someone other than Homekey suffers for it (hurting the attacker more than Homekey, true to Homekey's asymmetric warfare strategy)
c) Is put on a very long-term hold (but comes back when a vengeance when the hold is up)
This suggests a new question: How can an major attack on the City of Homekey by air be to Homekey's advantage? Ideas:
1)A political attack by Delkey can easily be imagined to go horribly wrong.
2)Backstab the enemy while their forces are committed to the capital fight. This way the attack is their own undoing. Trouble is, how to make this happen if you don't know who the attacker will be?
3)The city of Homekey encounters a tornado or hurricane. But with dirtamancer and carnimancer protections, it is not only prevented from harming the city, but is harnessed to provide permanent military advantage to the side.