Digdoug - Episode 15

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Re: Digdoug - Episode 15

Postby Lipkin » Thu Apr 17, 2014 12:15 am

jeffseadot wrote:
Omnimancer wrote:I doubt carnymancers can break contracts in general. Charlie + arkendish + tri-link might be an exception to that.

It's also possible that even if you can break a contract (which is dubious), it's harder to break a bigger contract than a smaller one. A contract for 1,000 shmuckers might be exponentially easier to break than one for 100,000.

In addition, carnymancy often involves making a "trade". Breaking the rules comes with a pretty steep consequence sometimes. So breaking a contract might have some horrific cost, rather than just being a free way to get out of a deal.


I doubt carnymancers *would* break contracts. It's just not their style. I see them as being like an evil genie who will give somebody *exactly* what they ask for, but in an unexpectedly negative way. It could be that they appreciate rules and contracts, just so that they could have something to twist around.

One recurring theme I've noticed is that casters seem to have a unique appreciation for whatever is the opposite of their discipline. Jack the foolamancer was very alert and aware of his surroundings; Wanda the croakamancer has shown an appreciation for life that was unheard of in its scope. Maybe there's something about a carnymancer's ability and inclination to break rules that gives them a unique perspective on the matter of defying a contract.

And a Signamancer would probably be the opposite of a Carny.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 15

Postby OneHugeTuck » Thu Apr 17, 2014 1:09 am

jeffseadot wrote:One recurring theme I've noticed is that casters seem to have a unique appreciation for whatever is the opposite of their discipline. Jack the foolamancer was very alert and aware of his surroundings; Wanda the croakamancer has shown an appreciation for life that was unheard of in its scope. Maybe there's something about a carnymancer's ability and inclination to break rules that gives them a unique perspective on the matter of defying a contract.



I don't know that it's 'the opposite', so much as the very basics of.

A foolamancer would have to be a master of the real terrain.
A croakamancer would have to be a master of the qualities of life (lost when croaked) and how an uncroaked could mimic them.
A carnymancer would have to be a master of the rules to understand how to break/manipulate them.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 15

Postby Lilwik » Thu Apr 17, 2014 1:26 am

Lipkin wrote:With mind control, the person being manipulated has no choice. With violence, the person being manipulated can choose to be punished. One gives the option for rebellion, the other does not.
If it were a matter of punishment then you would be right, but we're not talking about punishment. If there is a Fate force then it is not a dictator in the sky screaming down commands to his underlings and then punishing them if they disobey. What we are talking about is like a ghost, so silent and mysterious that it probably doesn't exist. It doesn't give people commands and therefore it obviously can't punish disobedience. There is no choosing to be punished when choices are not permitted.

Parson tried to choose to use the scroll, but he didn't actually have that choice because of the beam that was going to fall on him. He only had the illusion of choice. He only has free will enough to desire things, but he cannot act upon those desires by his own choices because he can only do things to the extent that the Fate ghost permits him to act. Therefore the Fate ghost is making the actual decisions and Parson is just along for the ride, like a backseat driver whose only freedom is his ability to complain about where the ghost chooses to take him.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 15

Postby Lipkin » Thu Apr 17, 2014 1:44 am

Lilwik wrote:
Lipkin wrote:With mind control, the person being manipulated has no choice. With violence, the person being manipulated can choose to be punished. One gives the option for rebellion, the other does not.
If it were a matter of punishment then you would be right, but we're not talking about punishment. If there is a Fate force then it is not a dictator in the sky screaming down commands to his underlings and then punishing them if they disobey. What we are talking about is like a ghost, so silent and mysterious that it probably doesn't exist. It doesn't give people commands and therefore it obviously can't punish disobedience. There is no choosing to be punished when choices are not permitted.

Parson tried to choose to use the scroll, but he didn't actually have that choice because of the beam that was going to fall on him. He only had the illusion of choice. He only has free will enough to desire things, but he cannot act upon those desires by his own choices because he can only do things to the extent that the Fate ghost permits him to act. Therefore the Fate ghost is making the actual decisions and Parson is just along for the ride, like a backseat driver whose only freedom is his ability to complain about where the ghost chooses to take him.

That's what Predictamancy is. Fate saying what it wants to happen. The ghost analogy is apt. A predictamancer in that scenario is a medium, communicating with the ghost.

Had Parson not chosen to use the scroll, the beam would not have fallen on him. Had he not dinked around with his bracer running calculations and just tried to cast it immediately, the beam would still have fallen on him when he tried to cast it, even though e would have been casting it earlier. He was not fated to have a beam drop on him. His fate simply wouldn't let him leave.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 15

Postby Lilwik » Thu Apr 17, 2014 2:05 am

Lipkin wrote:That's what Predictamancy is. Fate saying what it wants to happen.
We don't know that. I agree that it is possible, but it contradicts Delphie's statement about Wanda being free to kill herself, so we would have to assume that Delphie was wrong about that.

The question of whether something would have stopped Wanda from committing suicide is right at the core of the issue. If Delphie had said, "You wouldn't be able to," then we'd be left wondering what exactly would stop Wanda, but since Delphie said, "You could," it falls to us to come up with a theory that gives Wanda the freedom to commit suicide in a world where Predictions are always correct. My theory is that the only reason Wanda had a Fate was because she wasn't the sort of person who would kill herself, so Wanda's own free choice determined her Fate. No ghost is necessary to keep Fate on track when the Erfworlders decide Fate rather than having a plan imposed upon them.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 15

Postby Godzfirefly » Thu Apr 17, 2014 4:00 am

Lilwik wrote:
Lipkin wrote:That's what Predictamancy is. Fate saying what it wants to happen.
We don't know that. I agree that it is possible, but it contradicts Delphie's statement about Wanda being free to kill herself, so we would have to assume that Delphie was wrong about that.


Delphie never said Wanda was free to kill herself...only to throw herself out the window.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 15

Postby Lipkin » Thu Apr 17, 2014 4:12 am

Lilwik wrote:
Lipkin wrote:That's what Predictamancy is. Fate saying what it wants to happen.
We don't know that. I agree that it is possible, but it contradicts Delphie's statement about Wanda being free to kill herself, so we would have to assume that Delphie was wrong about that.

The question of whether something would have stopped Wanda from committing suicide is right at the core of the issue. If Delphie had said, "You wouldn't be able to," then we'd be left wondering what exactly would stop Wanda, but since Delphie said, "You could," it falls to us to come up with a theory that gives Wanda the freedom to commit suicide in a world where Predictions are always correct. My theory is that the only reason Wanda had a Fate was because she wasn't the sort of person who would kill herself, so Wanda's own free choice determined her Fate. No ghost is necessary to keep Fate on track when the Erfworlders decide Fate rather than having a plan imposed upon them.

That is your one argument that you keep going back to as if it is the most solid thing in the world. But it's open to plenty of interpretation.

Parson's bracer gave him the same response to his question about whether he could cast the scroll. 97% chance that it would work, 0% chance it would happen. Wanda has a 97% chance of attempting suicide, and a 0% chance she would succeed.

But then, you don't think that's what the bracer meant, so you won't agree with this argument. We've said all this stuff before.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 15

Postby Lilwik » Thu Apr 17, 2014 5:08 am

Lipkin wrote:That is your one argument that you keep going back to as if it is the most solid thing in the world. But it's open to plenty of interpretation.
It is quite solid and it's the only bit of evidence that speaks directly about this issue. We have Delphie saying that Wanda could commit suicide, and committing suicide would clearly falsify a Prediction. Of course I'm aware that some people think that's not what Delphie was saying, but it's the obvious and straight-forward meaning of her words and I really have to stretch to read a different meaning into them. I've never seen anyone tell a convincing story of how Delphie might not have meant what she seems to be saying, so until there's some evidence that contradicts Delphie I'm going to assume that she is correct for all of my theories about Fate.

Lipkin wrote:Parson's bracer gave him the same response to his question about whether he could cast the scroll. 97% chance that it would work, 0% chance it would happen.
This is what it looks like when something is open to plenty of interpretation. All we have are two numbers and no indication of what the numbers might mean, leaving us totally free to guess. I can see so many possibilities for what those numbers might mean that I have no confidence at all that any of my guesses are right. I don't think we should try to use our guesses about what it meant to support any theories until we get more information. Maybe someday we'll see the bracer do it again and comparing the two incidents will give us clues about the cause.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 15

Postby Lipkin » Thu Apr 17, 2014 6:45 am

How about what Clay said? He said that even though she was protected by fate, she could still die. Because she's just one die against many, many much more powerful than she.

Nothing we have seen points to fate being all powerful, in control of everything, but we have seen plenty of fate guiding things into being.

Edit: Lilwik, unless prompted by other discussion, can we let the subject of fate drop until we get more information? It's the one thing we consistently argue about, neither of us will give ground, and it's getting exhausting for me to keep butting heads with you about it. And I feel compelled to butt heads with you about it any time you bring it up. Can we table it?
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 15

Postby Lilwik » Thu Apr 17, 2014 7:52 am

Lipkin wrote:How about what Clay said? He said that even though she was protected by fate, she could still die. Because she's just one die against many, many much more powerful than she.
That's an interesting point! How can it be that Fate's protection might allow Wanda to die? Just like any other sort of protection, if it lets you die then it was never really protecting you. If Fate gave Wanda a magic force field or deflected arrows or dropped beams on people who try to kill her, then there would be no way that Wanda could die. Fate would have to step in and fix things before she actually croaked because otherwise it would go directly against a Prediction. So then doesn't that indicate that Fate is doing nothing like that, at least according to Clay?

What Clay said makes so much more sense if Fate works the other way around. Suppose it's not Fate that magically protects Wanda, but rather Wanda and the other Goodminton units are responsible for protecting themselves and Fate just notices that they are up to that challenge. If Wanda weren't careful she really could have died, but just as Wanda wouldn't actually commit suicide, she also wouldn't actually allow herself to die in battle. Just as Lookamancy sees distant places, why shouldn't Predictamancy see the future and the results of Wanda's own free choices? Wanda can have her Fate just because of who she is and not because of a role that's been assigned to her in a plan that she has no control over.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 15

Postby Lipkin » Thu Apr 17, 2014 8:47 am

Lilwik wrote:
Lipkin wrote:How about what Clay said? He said that even though she was protected by fate, she could still die. Because she's just one die against many, many much more powerful than she.
That's an interesting point! How can it be that Fate's protection might allow Wanda to die? Just like any other sort of protection, if it lets you die then it was never really protecting you. If Fate gave Wanda a magic force field or deflected arrows or dropped beams on people who try to kill her, then there would be no way that Wanda could die. Fate would have to step in and fix things before she actually croaked because otherwise it would go directly against a Prediction. So then doesn't that indicate that Fate is doing nothing like that, at least according to Clay?

What Clay said makes so much more sense if Fate works the other way around. Suppose it's not Fate that magically protects Wanda, but rather Wanda and the other Goodminton units are responsible for protecting themselves and Fate just notices that they are up to that challenge. If Wanda weren't careful she really could have died, but just as Wanda wouldn't actually commit suicide, she also wouldn't actually allow herself to die in battle. Just as Lookamancy sees distant places, why shouldn't Predictamancy see the future and the results of Wanda's own free choices? Wanda can have her Fate just because of who she is and not because of a role that's been assigned to her in a plan that she has no control over.

Expect that Wanda was reckless as boop because she thought she was protected. She's done nothing to preserve her own life, because she's convinced she's invincible. So far, she's been right.

True or false, Lilwik. You personally do not want fate to be a reactive force.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 15

Postby Godzfirefly » Thu Apr 17, 2014 9:13 am

Lilwik wrote:
Lipkin wrote:That is your one argument that you keep going back to as if it is the most solid thing in the world. But it's open to plenty of interpretation.
It is quite solid and it's the only bit of evidence that speaks directly about this issue. We have Delphie saying that Wanda could commit suicide, and committing suicide would clearly falsify a Prediction. Of course I'm aware that some people think that's not what Delphie was saying, but it's the obvious and straight-forward meaning of her words and I really have to stretch to read a different meaning into them. I've never seen anyone tell a convincing story of how Delphie might not have meant what she seems to be saying, so until there's some evidence that contradicts Delphie I'm going to assume that she is correct for all of my theories about Fate.


Frankly, as evidence, it's a piece of boop.

1) It's a HUGE stretch to try believing that Delphie was saying Wanda could "commit suicide" from what was said there or that jumping out the window would in any way falsify a Prediction. It makes a HUGE assumption that we actively know is not necessarily true. (The assumption is that Wanda throwing herself out the window would kill her.) 2) In addition to it having a big assumption, it's also a huge stretch because IT'S JUST NOT WHAT WAS SAID. Why do we have to peer closely at every prediction to see what possible multiple meanings must be applied to it, but this bit of prediction can only possibly have one meaning that isn't even what the words say? 3) Delphie is the lieing-est liar of all of Erfworld. Anything she says should be treated with a grain of salt because she'd lie about anything in a desperate attempt to get her own way. I'm more inclined to believe that if Delphie said it then it's evidence of its falsehood than otherwise.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 15

Postby Lilwik » Thu Apr 17, 2014 11:04 am

Lipkin wrote:Expect that Wanda was reckless as boop because she thought she was protected. She's done nothing to preserve her own life, because she's convinced she's invincible.
She's like that now. I was mostly talking about her Goodminton days when she still had sanity on her side and was Predicted to serve Olive. While Wanda was with Haffaton she didn't have any Predictions that required her to survive as far as we know, so her recklessness didn't matter, and by the time she finished helping Haffaton expand to its final enormous size she was surely already a high level Croakamancer and that might have been enough to guarantee her survival during her Gobwin Knob days when she was Predicted to attune.

Maybe it was highly unlikely that Wanda would survive to attune the pliers, especially when she flew out to face Ansom, but even so we can't use that as evidence of anything. We would have to claim that Predictamancy was unrealistically good at making accurate predictions, that it couldn't possibly have seen that coming without help from someone arranging events, but Predictamancy is magic so we have no foundation at all to say that some amazing feat of prediction is beyond it.

Godzfirefly wrote:The assumption is that Wanda throwing herself out the window would kill her.
This isn't specifically about jumping out of a window. This is about committing suicide. From B0E24, what Wanda actually said was, "I could...buy some poison and drink it! What would Fate do, then? Huh? I could jump off this tower right now!" To me there's no doubt at all what Wanda is trying to say, and no believable way that Delphie could have misunderstood. The fact that Wanda might survive the fall is irrelevant because she could just use the poison or some other method that prevents luck from being an issue.

Wanda was asking exactly what we're talking about here: what does Fate do to keep people on track? And the answer according to Delphie is that Fate wouldn't stop Wanda from doing whatever she wanted, but in the end it won't need to. "Yes, you could. But you won't."
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 15

Postby Godzfirefly » Thu Apr 17, 2014 11:24 am

Godzfirefly wrote:The assumption is that Wanda throwing herself out the window would kill her.
This isn't specifically about jumping out of a window. This is about committing suicide. From B0E24, what Wanda actually said was, "I could...buy some poison and drink it! What would Fate do, then? Huh? I could jump off this tower right now!" To me there's no doubt at all what Wanda is trying to say, and no believable way that Delphie could have misunderstood. The fact that Wanda might survive the fall is irrelevant because she could just use the poison or some other method that prevents luck from being an issue.

Wanda was asking exactly what we're talking about here: what does Fate do to keep people on track? And the answer according to Delphie is that Fate wouldn't stop Wanda from doing whatever she wanted, but in the end it won't need to. "Yes, you could. But you won't."[/quote]

Method of attempt is irrelevant to the point. The point is, even at face value, Delphie is only saying Wanda can try. She never said she could succeed. (And, even if she did say that, Delphie is still a lieing liar whose word should NEVER be used as evidence to support ANYTHING.)
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 15

Postby Lilwik » Thu Apr 17, 2014 12:02 pm

Godzfirefly wrote:Method of attempt is irrelevant to the point. The point is, even at face value, Delphie is only saying Wanda can try. She never said she could succeed.
I agree, but the difference between trying and succeeding is naturally assumed to be unimportant. If Wanda can try to commit suicide then Wanda can choose a technique that cannot fail, such as drinking the poison in a sufficient quantity. If Fate were going to step in then it would need to step in before Wanda could even try that because once it's drunk it's all over.

Delphie and Wanda were discussing Predictamancy and Fate. Delphie knew that Wanda wasn't asking for advice on which suicide techniques are best. The point was that Wanda wanted to find something that would prove that Predictamancy can't always be right. It's just a hypothetical, so for the sake of discussion they're sure to assume that Wanda would use some technique that would force Fate to either physically stop her or allow her to die.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 15

Postby Godzfirefly » Thu Apr 17, 2014 12:20 pm

Lilwik wrote:Delphie and Wanda were discussing Predictamancy and Fate. Delphie knew that Wanda wasn't asking for advice on which suicide techniques are best. The point was that Wanda wanted to find something that would prove that Predictamancy can't always be right. It's just a hypothetical, so for the sake of discussion they're sure to assume that Wanda would use some technique that would force Fate to either physically stop her or allow her to die.


1) You're assuming that Erfworld offers some sure-fire method of offing oneself. I do not believe that to be the case.

2) If Wanda wants some evidence that Predictamancy (or at least the things Predictamancers say will happen) isn't always right, Delphie telling everyone that Wanda would be a warlord when she ended up a caster should be evidence enough. Either Delphie Predicted that Wanda would be a Warlord and was wrong but lied about it afterward to hide the fact she was wrong or she didn't Predict that Wanda would be a Warlord but let everyone believe she did. Either way, it is clear that not everything Predictamancers say will happen is 100% sure to happen. (And, if I heard someone say X would happen, and then when Y happened instead that someone said they knew Y would happen all along but that someone said X would happen to ensure Y happened properly, I'd call that someone a fraud and treat everyone else with the same method of prediction with extreme skepticism.)
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 15

Postby jeffseadot » Thu Apr 17, 2014 1:25 pm

Lipkin wrote:And a Signamancer would probably be the opposite of a Carny.


I could see it being the case that signamancers are just as tricksy and untrustworthy as carnies. If a carny needs to have masterful knowledge of rules in order to break them, then a signamancer would need similar knowledge of loopholes, technicalities, workarounds, and nuance. Not just for making contracts, but for defining the things of Erfworld and interpreting those things. There's a lot of potential mayhem in being able to say "X isn't *really* X, it's Y."
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 15

Postby Lipkin » Thu Apr 17, 2014 2:13 pm

Godzfirefly wrote:
Lilwik wrote:Delphie and Wanda were discussing Predictamancy and Fate. Delphie knew that Wanda wasn't asking for advice on which suicide techniques are best. The point was that Wanda wanted to find something that would prove that Predictamancy can't always be right. It's just a hypothetical, so for the sake of discussion they're sure to assume that Wanda would use some technique that would force Fate to either physically stop her or allow her to die.


1) You're assuming that Erfworld offers some sure-fire method of offing oneself. I do not believe that to be the case.

2) If Wanda wants some evidence that Predictamancy (or at least the things Predictamancers say will happen) isn't always right, Delphie telling everyone that Wanda would be a warlord when she ended up a caster should be evidence enough. Either Delphie Predicted that Wanda would be a Warlord and was wrong but lied about it afterward to hide the fact she was wrong or she didn't Predict that Wanda would be a Warlord but let everyone believe she did. Either way, it is clear that not everything Predictamancers say will happen is 100% sure to happen. (And, if I heard someone say X would happen, and then when Y happened instead that someone said they knew Y would happen all along but that someone said X would happen to ensure Y happened properly, I'd call that someone a fraud and treat everyone else with the same method of prediction with extreme skepticism.)

Not to mention Delphie had a vested interest in Wanda believing she couldn't avoid her fate. If she believed it, maybe she would still go to Haffaton, and Goodminton would be spared.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 15

Postby Lilwik » Thu Apr 17, 2014 6:07 pm

Godzfirefly wrote:You're assuming that Erfworld offers some sure-fire method of offing oneself. I do not believe that to be the case.
Of all the things that Wanda could do to herself, how could it be possible that none of them could be certain death? She could even stab herself with a sword. No amount of luck would allow her to survive that if she does it correctly.

Godzfirefly wrote:If Wanda wants some evidence that Predictamancy (or at least the things Predictamancers say will happen) isn't always right, Delphie telling everyone that Wanda would be a warlord when she ended up a caster should be evidence enough.
That was just Delphie lying about what Predictamancy foretold, according to Wanda in B0E10. Merely proving that Predictamancers sometimes lie wouldn't have helped Wanda escape her Fate of leaving Goodminton because Delphie wasn't lying about that Prediction, or at least Wanda didn't think it was a lie. Wanda wanted to prove that the magic of Predictamancy can be thwarted because that's the only way Wanda could justify everything she had done to fight her Fate.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 15

Postby Godzfirefly » Thu Apr 17, 2014 6:25 pm

Lilwik wrote:
Godzfirefly wrote:You're assuming that Erfworld offers some sure-fire method of offing oneself. I do not believe that to be the case.
Of all the things that Wanda could do to herself, how could it be possible that none of them could be certain death? She could even stab herself with a sword. No amount of luck would allow her to survive that if she does it correctly.


Casters aren't very good with swords. I doubt she'd have the skills to reduce her Hits to zero with one stab...or maybe not even several. (And, if you're imagining her just putting the sword to her neck and pressing for an auto-crit, that is applying Stupidworld logic to Erfword mechanics. And, that is clearly wrong.)

Lilwik wrote:That was just Delphie lying about what Predictamancy foretold, according to Wanda in B0E10.


You assume that is correct, and Wanda is basing her belief on what the liar told her. She doesn't know.

I don't buy that we 100% know Delphie was telling the truth about lieing about what Preditamancy foretold. She's clearly a liar, so why assume she's telling the truth about that?

If I choose to believe that Delpie's Prediction simply failed to be accurate and she's lieing to cover her boop, then it is supported by just as much evidence as your belief that Predictamancy is always 100% accurate. Perhaps more, since your belief is more fantastic in nature and is only supported in-comic by a proven liar.
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