Book 2 – Page 13

[build6]

Wanda is really out of hand

this is sort of an understatement

anyways, it seems clear from her responses ("it was certainly one reason" and "ansom didn't, you didn't"- implying that she wasn't necessarily part of that category...) that she's acting "for herself" ...

[Gez]

I've liked the theory that the bracer is just doing what Parson himself could do, with a bunch of research, careful thought, and a lot of scratch paper. The same sort of benefit that the calculator watch would have provided to his math ability, but across the whole spectrum of numerical deductive reasoning.

The problem with this is that the theory is no good. No general can spend a lot of research, careful thought, and use a lot of scratch paper to give odds the way the bracer does. What were the odds of the Allied forces taking Normandy? No one had a clue, but it needed to be done and the allies did everything they could to nudge the odds in their favor. But if any general gave an actual percentage to their chances, with 3 significant digits, it would be a total BS answer.

Real world units do not have precise, exact stats that determine their damage output and how much hits they can take. Erfworld does. Rather than a general computing the odds the Allied forces have of taking Normandy, you should look at an obsessive nerd computing the odds the Terrans have to win over the Zergs in a specific tournament map.

[noxharrington]

Real world units do not have precise, exact stats that determine their damage output and how much hits they can take. Erfworld does.

In that case, I don't see how the bracer comes up with probabilities at all. Most of the questions that have been asked of it have been 'what are the odds that X will beat Y if we attack in A fashion?' If Erfworld is as simple as you say (and I agree, by the way, it's just that the 'Erfworld is not a game-rs' are really inclined to argue against these sort of claims) then wouldn't it give 100% more often? Or, rather, 100% based on current information, which is very likely to be useless?

I have a hard time (given the questions and answers we have seen thusfar) imagining a way the bracer works that would make it both useful not ridiculously overpowered.

"The bracer can make sophisticated predictions about the future," Parson said. Paraphrasing. And Charlie - who knows much more about Mathamancy - did not disagree. Now, they could both have been lying to each other, but based on what we know now... well. It's very confusing, and if I were Parson, possessing only the information we have as readers, I wouldn't trust the numbers the bracer gave any farther than I could throw it into lava while cursing. I would test it. Thoroughly.

[Gez]

In that case, I don't see how the bracer comes up with probabilities at all. Most of the questions that have been asked of it have been 'what are the odds that X will beat Y if we attack in A fashion?' If Erfworld is as simple as you say (and I agree, by the way, it's just that the 'Erfworld is not a game-rs' are really inclined to argue against these sort of claims) then wouldn't it give 100% more often? Or, rather, 100% based on current information, which is very likely to be useless?

Die rolls. Which are the province of luckamancers, by the way.

[theseus2x]

I've liked the theory that the bracer is just doing what Parson himself could do, with a bunch of research, careful thought, and a lot of scratch paper. The same sort of benefit that the calculator watch would have provided to his math ability, but across the whole spectrum of numerical deductive reasoning.

The problem with this is that the theory is no good. No general can spend a lot of research, careful thought, and use a lot of scratch paper to give odds the way the bracer does. What were the odds of the Allied forces taking Normandy? No one had a clue, but it needed to be done and the allies did everything they could to nudge the odds in their favor. But if any general gave an actual percentage to their chances, with 3 significant digits, it would be a total BS answer.

Real world units do not have precise, exact stats that determine their damage output and how much hits they can take. Erfworld does. Rather than a general computing the odds the Allied forces have of taking Normandy, you should look at an obsessive nerd computing the odds the Terrans have to win over the Zergs in a specific tournament map.

First : Regarding the bracer - we've already determined it can do some form of predictamancy based on information Parson couldn't possibly have. (i.e. when it told Parson and Charlie the value of the remaining calculations vs. the information re: Wanda) So as smart as Parson is, he couldn't do that. At the same time, the bracer didn't seem to predict the presence of Jillian's force when it calculated the odds of taking the city by air (originally), so obviously there are limits. (Maybe Parson just needs to ask the right question...)

Second : Remember that while Erfworld units have stats (unlike RW units), there is still a random element regarding success and failure. (Some of us know them as dice ... ) Otherwise, the calculations Parson keeps coming up with would be absolute one way or the other.

[Watsit Hoohow]

I just realized - Parson confirms that Gobwin Knob has additional forces in the area. Maybe there'll be a reason for Wanda to call in the cavalry in the near future.

[Sinrus]

What you thought that the entire army was dwagons?

And on the subject of the bracer, I don't see what the big deal is. Parson can't just ask 'What are the chances of taking Spacerock,' he needs to enter in all of the useful information. So if he doesn't know something (like Jillian's surprise air force) it won't be included in the calculations. Also, since he doesn't know the caster type, he enters in 1 caster and the bracer calculates the odds for all caster types, then either averages them or just tells him a range.

[Ninjaguineapig]

How exactly does the bracer work? Does it have some sort of Thinkamancy power that lets Parson run data into directly from his head, or does it have a boopload of buttons?

[Krennson]

How exactly does the bracer work? Does it have some sort of Thinkamancy power that lets Parson run data into directly from his head, or does it have a boopload of buttons?

Thinkamancy. Parson has to MENTALLY specify the variables involved, and we're not certain how reliable, accurate, or powerful the bracer really is when parson specifies very ambigous or open-ended variables.

[Krennson]

First : Regarding the bracer - we've already determined it can do some form of predictamancy based on information Parson couldn't possibly have. (i.e. when it told Parson and Charlie the value of the remaining calculations vs. the information re: Wanda) So as smart as Parson is, he couldn't do that. At the same time, the bracer didn't seem to predict the presence of Jillian's force when it calculated the odds of taking the city by air (originally), so obviously there are limits. (Maybe Parson just needs to ask the right question...)

Second : Remember that while Erfworld units have stats (unlike RW units), there is still a random element regarding success and failure. (Some of us know them as dice ... ) Otherwise, the calculations Parson keeps coming up with would be absolute one way or the other.

maybe it runs some sort of monte carlo simulation?

assume that parson plays both sides: One side uses estimates of charlies strength, force disposition, financial status, and known methods of operations, the other side uses gobwin knob as parson expects it to behave.

You COULD run several million scenarios, where you tweak the assumed starting parameters slightly each time, then play the game out, with parson-style players on both sides, for a few years.

Then you report the difference between charlies endgame position when he DID buy the information, versus when he DIDN'T.

That's a very UNRELIABLE number, because parson doesn't KNOW what exactly charlies position is, or his methods, or what the future will hold for all the third party sides involved, and he either has to assume all possibilities are equal, or biase the initial assumptions towards a starting scenario he likes... either of which cab easily come around to bite him.

BUT, if parson, who should know that, is stubborn enough to ask anyway, the bracer is apparently stubborn enough to give him an answer, in spite of all the problems such an answer face in being calculated.

It's like asking "If I choose black, what are the odds I will win this chess game?" in terms of VERY BROAD STATISTICS, At grand master level, about 49%. At high school level, about 50-50. But that doesn't take into account ANYTHING about the skills of the two players. But if parson is stupid enough to ask a question that general, the bracer will GIVE an answer that general.

[Krennson]

Hey, that's a fun test that parson could run to check the reliability and power of his bracer!

have the trolls make a checkers set, a scoreboard, and a rules card.

Pick, say, two archons, at random. Ask the bracer what the odds are the one or the other of the archons will win over time.

Then, have them PLAY the game, say, a hundred times, and keep score.

Repeat several times with different combinations: Different levels of units, different unit types, different people but who are the same unit type and level....

If the bracer always gives a prediction of 50-50 when two new players play their first game ever, that tells us something.

If the bracer CHANGES its predictions to match the ongoing score as those two players get closer and closer to the 100-game total, that tells us something too.

And when the bracer gets to the point where it can calculate odds between two experienced players who just haven't played EACH OTHER before, and it gives odds DIFFERENT than 50-50, which later experimentation confirms....
that would be VERY interesting.

[Ninjaguineapig]

That doesn't only show things about the bracer, but it could give Parson some insight on experience. If individual units learn to play better, but aren't gaining and EXP, how are they changing? Can a unit's skill increase actively, by training and practice, or do stats only go up with leveling, leadership and magic?

[multilis]

This reminds me of Star trek 2, the wrath of khan where Spock says khan is using good strategy *but* only thinking in 2 dimensions.

Wanda and Ansom are only thinking in 2 dimensions, like most of their foes. Wanda only asks very focused questions, following a specific game plan. (We have yet to see if she will screw up worse by letting emotions screw up her attack) Only Parson and to a degree Charlie so far seem to think further.

At a time like this, since its your turn till you end it, you should look at all the options just like in Book 1. Eg Parson in book 1 playing his opponents diplomatically, trying to gain allies, etc. "But the enemy won't follow your plan so you roll with it..."

[theseus2x]

I just realized - Parson confirms that Gobwin Knob has additional forces in the area. Maybe there'll be a reason for Wanda to call in the cavalry in the near future.

Explain?

[theseus2x]

assume that parson plays both sides: One side uses estimates of charlies strength, force disposition, financial status, and known methods of operations, the other side uses gobwin knob as parson expects it to behave.

You COULD run several million scenarios, where you tweak the assumed starting parameters slightly each time, then play the game out, with parson-style players on both sides, for a few years.

Okay, but when the bracer (normally) gives calculations, it doesn't seem to be running scenarios. Scenarios are Parson's thing, and while the bracer obviously helps with that, that's not what its doing. When Parson says "We have a 57% chance of winning", he's not saying "With me as a commander" or with "me as the commander of the army attacking us". In other words, he's not playing both sides in a game of chess. (Though I'm sure he's tried that, too....)

Then you report the difference between charlies endgame position when he DID buy the information, versus when he DIDN'T.

That's a very UNRELIABLE number, because parson doesn't KNOW what exactly charlies position is, or his methods, or what the future will hold for all the third party sides involved, and he either has to assume all possibilities are equal, or biase the initial assumptions towards a starting scenario he likes... either of which cab easily come around to bite him.

Yes, there are a lot of things Parson can't know about Charlie, and a lot of future variables Parson and Charlie can't (presumably) know when making that sort of calculation. Yet the bracer gave them a number anyway, and both seemed to take it as a viable number, and not as the bracer's equivalent of an error message because it couldn't compute. This makes me think there's more going on here than just the bracer going "What the fuck...? You didn't provide X, Y or Z in this equation. Fine. I'll give you an answer that won't be worth bull----".

BUT, if parson, who should know that, is stubborn enough to ask anyway, the bracer is apparently stubborn enough to give him an answer, in spite of all the problems such an answer face in being calculated.

In fairness to Parson, he asked because Charlie pressed him, not because he was too stubborn. As for the personality of the bracer, see my opinion above.

It's like asking "If I choose black, what are the odds I will win this chess game?" in terms of VERY BROAD STATISTICS, At grand master level, about 49%. At high school level, about 50-50. But that doesn't take into account ANYTHING about the skills of the two players. But if parson is stupid enough to ask a question that general, the bracer will GIVE an answer that general.

True. However - It seems to me that MOST fights in Erfworld tend to be fairly straightforward at the tactical level. "Strategy" mostly comes into play in manuvering, creating situations where you're stronger than your opponent. Warlords seem to know that if they bring 7 knights to a skirmish and their opponent only brings 4, the side with 7 knights will win 85% of the time. (Or whatever it is.) If you can arrange situations like that consistently, you're a great strategist. People don't seem to think in terms of "What tactics can I employ to get the side with four knights the win?"

This seems to be going out-of-date with the presence of Parson, however, who's strategic mind alone can obviously change the above situation. If the side with 4 knights has Parson and he gets his side to do something crazy, those odds change rapidly.

Other sides are taking note. Hence, Charlie and Jillian are pulling whatever they're pulling with Jetstone : Straightforward strategies just wouldn't cut it anymore.

So TRADITIONAL Erfworld maybe is like that chess game; the post-Parson Erfworld? Well.... stay tuned.

[ftl]

Do people really think we learned something new about the bracer here???

This is the most basic type of calculation there IS for it! "We know our composition of forces. We know the composition of the enemy forces, with one unknown variable. What are the odds of winning based on all the possible values of that variable."

That's... exactly the calculation that's easiest. Known forces on both sides, what's the odds of winning. The exact same calculation that it's been doing since day 1. The only twist is that they don't know the type of caster - but that's trivial, there's a small list of possibilities, the wiki in fact has a list of *all possible* casters it could be.

[gameboy1234]

This is a great look for Wanda. Characters change, and she's probably going to get even weirder as time goes on. You might as well warm up to the idea now.

Unlikely, only reason she has that look is for the pop culture reference and joke...

Personally I think there's some "signamancy" in Wanda's and Jillian's outfits. I'm not 100% sure what (I posted some guess earlier, when Jillian's costume was first revealed), but I doubt Wanda will change until we've seen some sort of outcome from their assumed roles.

[gameboy1234]

I'm guessing it's been brought up but why would wanda wanna just erase a side?

Well, Jetstone is the primary opponent of GK right now. Jetstone is pushing the RCCII the hardest, acting as the leader and rallying point, they forced Hagar to join at sword point, etc. Dust Jetstone and you've dusted the biggest threat, and GK gets a lot safer.

[Dancing Cthulhu]

First : Regarding the bracer - we've already determined it can do some form of predictamancy based on information Parson couldn't possibly have.

Kind of yes. It will be interesting to see a predictomancer in action. The Faq one seemed to be right on the money every time. Accurate enough to base Faq's entire first line of defense on with Jack. I wonder if Parson's bracer would have been able to act as a substitute for the caster in that scenario....

Second : Remember that while Erfworld units have stats (unlike RW units), there is still a random element regarding success and failure. (Some of us know them as dice ... ) Otherwise, the calculations Parson keeps coming up with would be absolute one way or the other.

I think there could well be more then one "random" element in play. Or certain unknowables. Luck + maybe a units intelligence/ingenuity/creativity (or the Parson factor). So you can still get a very good calculation on your chances based on things like troop numbers/troop types/weather/etc but there will always be those unknown factors which could influence things one way or another.

Explain?

I'm assuming Watsit Hoohow is referring to the fact Wanda could have dropped back to the forest and consolidated with the forces there. Not sure if it is exactly a surprise though, since it should be the rest of Wanda's strike force that isn't with the dwagons.

Do people really think we learned something new about the bracer here???

I agree with your post, I don't think anything new has come to light, although it is nice to get more examples of it being used.

It's incredible. It's like you can't even keep straight in your head what you're arguing anymore. Pretty much nothing in your last post contradicts what I just said... I don't even know why you bothered posting most of it. The whole point you contested was my claim that it was now obvious killing slately and his heir ends the side, which you disputed... and now you seem to be agreeing (while trying to create the impression you're not).

No, it was the level of certainty I was debating.

1 - You say "Parson/Wanda/Oss" would know what is what, so if it is said the side will end, then it will end with Slately dead.
To which I said - Parson is saying "should". Based on his knowledge of how things work, and assuming he somehow knows Oss was the heir, then Jetstone should end if Wanda burns the tower and kills Slately. But the should, to me, still reads like Parson isn't 100% sure it is the case - maybe Oss isn't the heir etc.

2 - You aksed if Parson wasn't sure the side would end with Slately dead why put Wanda onto this course of action.
To which I said - it was always going to be be a kill Slately mission, and even if the side wouldn't end automatically it would still win the battle and mess up Jetstone completely. If Oss was heir, well, in the original plan he wasn't going to be killed first up, meaning they still saw the value in taking out Slately even if the heir was still alive and free for a short time.

You'll have to direct me to the trees, though again I don't see how this matters alot... GK is doing a hit and run... they will see the Archons coming a mile away, and adjust accordingly (if they're in the hex, which would be stupid for reasons covered already). If there are too many Archons, they will retreat (possibly after croaking Slately, since Jack can just make them invisible if need be apparently, buying them lots of time), if there aren't enough to overwhelm them then you have to wonder why not (are Charlie and Jillian super smart, or super stupid, be consistent).

Going back to read the post I pointed out it was in page two of this book. On the Jetstone side. Trees. Woods. Hills. You have been arguing all sorts of reasons why Archons couldn't be there and if they were it would be DEM because warlords would see them or Jack would see them and turns/battlespace etc etc Seeing that again (warlords would see them) I said "ok, woods in the Jetstone hex - maybe if there are Archons they could be hidden in the trees. Or behind them" Unless Jack has x-ray eyes I doubt he is going to spot some grounded Archons, veiled in a wood off in the distance. Likewise I imagine Jetstone isn't wasting it's warlords searching its own forests.

And I've said before, I still don't know why you think Archons could only possibly be useful in overwhelming numbers. It's not like the times we've seen them at their best it hasn't been in small groups. The Flash mob, the shock treatment attack with the dwagons, the three with Jillian (mainly the one who talked her through it), the couple leading Ansom in the dance fight... and considering possible magics - hmmm, foolamancy, shockmancy, thinkamancy, different levels... yes, I can easily imagine a small strike force of high level archons could have a big impact, it doesn't have to be hundreds of them. If that is even the plan (hence the silly criticism of something that hasn't even happened).

I'm guessing it's been brought up but why would wanda wanna just erase a side? They're no good to anyone dusted. Unless as a croakamancer and guided by an unclear destiny she feels she has this method has an appeal to her?

I not sure she wants to erase any side, but for Wanda if that is what it takes, well, so be it, no skin off her nose.

It is possible a side can only have 1 heir at a time.

It seems that a royal side can pop as many royal heir units as they want. Jetstone had three princes, TV once had a prince and princess. I'd guess that when they have more then one though the ruler picks the one that will take the throne when they croak, while the others are in reserve (or for making a new side) and have to be manually selected should anything happen to the first in line.

[Sinrus]

On the subject of the bracer, here's a couple lists, followed by my opinion.

What We Know:
The bracer calculates odds.
Parson enters information in, through some method or another.
Parson knows everything about the consistencies of both forces, minus some elements.

What Parson Doesn't Know:
The caster type (but he does know that there is a caster)
Charlie has forces in the battlespace

My Take on the Bracer's Method:
Parson enters everything he knows. (Forces of both armies, and a caster [does not specify caster type])
Bracer runs odds for the scenario.
Semi-known element (caster), so bracer re-runs scenario with all different caster classes/levels.
A percentage is created for each possible scenario, for example, 70% for a Master Class luckamancer and 90% for level 1 predictamancer.
Bracer presents Parson with the range (or average) percentage of success.

Note:
Parson does not know that Charlie has forces in the battlespace. Therefore, they are not included in the calculation. So, the actual chances are lower than the bracer tells us.

On the subject of heirs, I think it's best to post this link: http://www.erfworld.com/book-1-archive/?px=/079.jpg

What We Know:
Heir come in two types: Heir Designate (appointed) and Royal Heir (popped)
Royal Heirs take longer to pop than warlords and most (all?) other units.
When a ruler croaks, all remaining units become barbarians.
If the capital falls, all units with the heir do not disband.
An Heir Designate who becomes ruler is retitled Overlord
A Royal Heir who becomes ruler is retitled King (or Queen)
Multiple Royal Heirs can be popped.

What We Can Infer:
Multiple Royal Heirs can be popped, but only one can be the real heir to the throne. Presumably, other are backup. They are essentially just Royal Warlords (as opposed to Noble warlords for royal sides, or regular warlords for other sides).
I have a hard time believing that Oss or Ansom could still be Royal Heirs to Jetstone after being decrypted. So that means that until Jetstone's turn, Trammennis is just a Royal Warlord and will become a barbarian if Slately is croaked. Or, if Gk takes Spacerock instead of just razing it, he will disband.