Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby EthericSentinel » Fri Jul 26, 2013 1:24 pm

drachefly wrote:I offer 10q each to up to 5 people that Banhammer did not just disband Jillian's mount out from under her.


I haven't gambled yet until now, but I'm confident enough about the gwiffon that I'll come out of lurking to take that bet. ;)
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Fri Jul 26, 2013 1:57 pm

And with that, I am now fully committed on that bet. Anyone else, you will need to find another taker if you want in.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Fri Jul 26, 2013 5:47 pm

Well, you're either about to really rake in or fork out the quatloo.

Oh, and I'd like to put a 5q bet that some form of mindwipe happens before the end of book 0.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Kaed » Sat Jul 27, 2013 12:02 am

I think I'll join in.

I submit the following bets to any takers:

The reason Charlie's Capital is able to naturally pop Archons at 1/turn is a result of high level Carnymancy (possibly through the Dish, but not necessarily BECAUSE of it) employed on his city. 30q

Further, the reason he only pops them is because the price for this rigged city production is he CAN'T produce anything else now. 10q

Charlie somehow wrangles a magical contract with Faq as part of this trial that stipulates they forget everything they know about his past afterwards. 10q

I also call for a betting pool regarding the next caster type we learn a significant capability about that we previously did not know (ex. Dirtamancers can put out Infernos, Lookamancers can blind), moving forward from today (7/26/13), and bet 5q each on both Weirdomancer and Changemamcer.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Sat Jul 27, 2013 6:07 pm

I'll take you up on the first two bets, though I imagine that will go unanswered till near the end of the third book if at all.

We agree on the third, so no bet there ;)

And I'm unsure what will be next, though I'm guessing it'd be more likely we'll see something from one of the FAQ casters/olive/Charlie. Not going to throw a bet in that pool just yet. Maybe next turn when I have more juice :D
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Sat Jul 27, 2013 9:22 pm

Anyone interested in a betting pool on if Charlie is an Erfworlder or a Stupidworlder? Or some third possibility perhaps.

I'd put 5q on him being an Erfworlder.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby mortissimus » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:44 pm

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:Oh, and I'd like to put a 5q bet that some form of mindwipe happens before the end of book 0.


I'll take that.

Kaed wrote:Charlie somehow wrangles a magical contract with Faq as part of this trial that stipulates they forget everything they know about his past afterwards. 10q


And I'll take that too.

Mostly because I think it would be lazy writing to disconnect actions in book 0 by way of a mindwipe. And Rob is anything but lazy.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Kaed » Mon Jul 29, 2013 11:28 am

Er, I don't quite follow how removing knowledge of his secrets is laziness in writing, honestly. Charlie's first throught was to me clearly to ally with Olive and MURDER ALL OF THEM to secure an information leak.

Well obviously that is not a thing that happened, so you must be expecting something more convoluted I guess?
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby mortissimus » Tue Jul 30, 2013 6:53 am

Oh, I am going for meta-reasoning rather then characther reasoning. I have no doubt Charlie wants to mindwipe or kill anyone who knows his any of his secrets.

I just figure writing a good prequel is hard because in addition to the audience knowing the ending conditions, you need to keep track of what information revealed here changes about the already written stories. Using mindwipes takes away the second condition, making it signifcantly easier (as George Lucas has no doubt discovered consideirng how many times C3PO was mindwiped offscreen between movies (and that is canon according to Wookiepedia)). Rob has not struck me as an author that makes things easy for himself, ergo he will not use mindwipes to make the prequel fit the already published books.

But of course we can be wrong. The beauty of betting is that we don't have try to convince each other, the fact that we do think in different ways is instead turned into a source of fun.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Whispri » Thu Aug 01, 2013 11:22 pm

drachefly wrote:~~~~
Mrtyuh bet Whispri 10q that Cubbins will become the first decrypted caster.
~~~~
Nnelg bet Balerion 5q that someone important (ex. Parson, Wanda, Jack, etc.) defects from GK by the end of Book 2.
~~~~
Itoh bets Whispri 20q that Charlescomm or a side allied (at least informally) with Charlescomm gains possession of the Arkenpliers by the end of book 2 (not counting a CC alliance with GK)
~~~~
Itoh bets Whispri 15q that Charlescomm or a side allied (at least informally) with Charlescomm gains possession of the Arkenhammer by the end of book 2 (not counting a CC alliance with GK)
~~~~
I bet Bladestorm 5q that if Jack does croak this turn, he is eventually decrypted (and if he's not croaked this turn, bet is off) (The turn in Book 2)
~~~~
Mortissimus bet Bladestorm 5Q that if Jack is dead he will be decrypted. If he is dead and is decrypted Mortissimus win 5Q, if he is dead but is not decrypted (lets say by the end of book 2 to make sure there is an end even if somebody puts up a mobile Jack corpse movement service) the Bladestorm wins 5Q. If he did not die on page 105 due to some mancy or trickery this bet is voided.
~~~~

Looks like all these have been answered.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby mortissimus » Fri Aug 02, 2013 8:37 am

And these too:

Sixty has bet me 10 that Parson will prevent himself from having access to the bracer during Book 2.
~~~~
effataigus bet Mrtyuh 10q that Jillian will come back to JS (or an engagement involving Tram outside of JS) before the end of book 2.
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet me 5q that Tramennis will be captured by Gobwin Knob by the End of Book 2.
~~~~
bladestorm bet fjord 30q that we'll see in book 2 that the hammer can only levitate, not fly (see page 25)
~~~~
Mortissimus bet Walpurgisborn 10q that no live (not decrypted or uncroaked) Jack will appear before the end of book 2.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Fri Aug 02, 2013 10:38 am

Done for now. I think we can also call the genius idea pool as a tie between me (not a tri-link) and Werebiscuit (Bracer but not scroll) since Parson surely used the bracer to estimate the chances of this working. Unless his genius idea wasn't the honor guard, but is yet to be revealed, in which case it could go either way (they could use the scroll, in which case I win, or they could tri-link, in which case Werebiscuit wins). Eh. I'll leave it unresolved.

So I guess that's it. Good day for Whispri, not so good for Bladestorm.

NEXT POOL:
Location of first panel of book 3. 20q to buy in. At most one guess per day. I won't guess until tomorrow. Most specific correct answer wins.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby YesNinja » Fri Aug 02, 2013 11:00 am

I guess I'll get in on the pool (first time posting). I'm gonna guess that it'll start off in FAQ, in the tower, specifically in their form of a 'war room'.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Fri Aug 02, 2013 11:19 am

Hmm, and interesting pool. I'd love to get into it, but that is still too far out. There is going to be some epilogue stuff, and I'd like to get an idea of how far that goes before placing any bets on where book 3 will actually start.

Also, looking good for my bets about no deaths occurring. It could happen during the epilogue, but that doesn't seem likely at this point. I won't try and claim it yet though, until the turn actually ends.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Fri Aug 02, 2013 1:17 pm

Or book 3 could start this turn. Not too likely, but possible.

Stepping back a little, I would like to submit a previously resolved bet for re-judgement. I felt comfortable temporarily assigning it to my 'lost' column, but before I reverse that to a 'win' I'd like either a concession or consensus.

GJC's 5q to my 10 that Parson's plan involves using Decrypted troops to directly attack MK casters, with the aim of gaining a degree of control over the MK. (It sure looked like that starting book 2 page 113. Could be reversed depending on outcome)


No attack has occurred, and Parson restrained them from responding to a call-to-arms. Now, the best argument I can see for letting it stand is that using decrypted troops to attack MK casters does appear in Parson's plan - even though it is not the preferred outcome, it does involve this as a contingency.

However, the bet was offered and accepted after the troops had already been decrypted. The idea that self-defense would not come up in a contingency plan is absurd, so it cannot be what the bet is about. If it was, then the bet was blatantly unwinnable and is thus void.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby GJC » Fri Aug 02, 2013 6:12 pm

I meant to address that previously! Sorry about my absence, been busy.

Lemme start with this:

However, the bet was offered and accepted after the troops had already been decrypted. The idea that self-defense would not come up in a contingency plan is absurd, so it cannot be what the bet is about. If it was, then the bet was blatantly unwinnable and is thus void.


You seem confused on some of the dates. I offered the bet, and you accepted, on the 29th of June. The date this comic was published: http://www.erfworld.com/wp-content/uplo ... eb_900.jpg

In that comic, there is only mention of transferring dead troops through the MK, no mention of decrypting them there. At most, we could be fairly sure that there'd be decrypted casters, but those aren't troops, I think. Decryption of troops in the MK happened more than 2 weeks after the bet was accepted and settled. Therefore, at the time of the bet, alternate courses of action were possible. The fact that Parson said to "stack the corpses like cordwood" actually made me doubt a decryption was even going to happen in the MK. Alternate courses of action could have been to simply change the capital back to GK, and evacuate the corpses back into the capital for decryption there, in order to save valuable troops and warlords. Alternately, a sneak attack on charlie's portal via tunnels could have been an option, had Sizemore had enough juice. Neither of them particularly likely, but certainly possible.

However.

I agree that construing the bet to mean "any contingency at all" isn't appropriate. That'd basically reduce the bet to "I bet Parson is going to decrypt troops in the MK", which, I don't think, is worth 5:10 odds. It certainly wasn't within the spirit of the bet, and I don't deserve to win on those grounds. My intention was that I'd win in the case of aggressive use of his troops.

I would point out, though, that this isn't pure passive self-defense. Sure, Parson is guaranteeing his own safety via troops. But he's using the troops specifically to guarantee his safety in an area (to wit, the Magic Kingdom) and his use of that area, against the will of (many of) that area's inhabitants. He's going so far as to threaten the use of this force should the Magic Kingdom's inhabitants go so far as to attempt to enforce the Kingdom's laws against him, and even threatening to attack should they be "obstructed". That means if, say, a dirtamancer creates a trench in front of them, to prevent them from further accessing the MK? He's likely to get Artemis'd before Parson even knows what's going on. Those forces are on a hair trigger.

That goes way beyond self defense. He's using troops to force the casters to allow him access to their Kingdom, whether they like it or not. Against any coherent side, that'd be a military invasion. A very polite invasion, Olive-style, where you don't bring your overwhelming force to bear unless you really have to, but an invasion nonetheless.

On the other other hand, while I think that engaging is a very real contingency in Parson's mind (and one he's more than willing to apply), that's not his main plan. His main plan is to use the threat of that engagement to get his way without bloodshed. And since my bet wasn't "Parson's plan involves him scaring the MK with decrypted troops", I think it'd be easiest all 'round for me to concede this.

And next time I'll bet on what actually happens, as opposed to what a character is thinking. Because the latter can be kinda tricky to determine.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Fri Aug 02, 2013 9:18 pm

GJC wrote:In that comic, there is only mention of transferring dead troops through the MK, no mention of decrypting them there.


oops. Sorry 'bout that. With that in mind, and the troops almost constituting an attack by their mere presence, I don't feel comfortable winning either. How about we just null it? Agreed on your point that more measurable criteria are best.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby GJC » Sat Aug 03, 2013 3:41 pm

I'm just fine with a tie.

Though I'm still waiting to see whether Tramemnis ends up ruler of Jetstone, to settle my first bet. Hoping that might come up at some point in book 3. : p
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Sun Aug 04, 2013 5:05 am

GJC wrote:I'm just fine with a tie.

Though I'm still waiting to see whether Tramemnis ends up ruler of Jetstone, to settle my first bet. Hoping that might come up at some point in book 3. : p

I don't see why he wouldn't be. There was some oddity with the clone, but he was successfully made heir, and then the clone, who was acting ruler, died.

Also, about the bet between you and drachefly, I'd agree that a tie would be in order. That or I honestly would put my voice behind drachefly winning. A tie on the grounds that his plan did involve gaining a degree of control over the MK. A win for drachefly on the grounds that his plan didn't involve using troops to attack. It involved using the troops to threaten retaliation for attack, which is kind of the difference between a country nuking another country, and a country having nukes. Still, if you two agree to a tie, I certainly won't complain about it. The bet is between the two of you after all.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Mon Aug 05, 2013 6:13 pm

Well, we got our answer as to Banhammer's disband order. And just as I predicted we got it quite quickly.

Edit: How many qatloos were riding around on that anyway? Like 60-70ish right?
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