Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Sat Aug 24, 2013 6:37 am

bladestorm wrote:I have dropped from second place to fifth place, and may soon join the ranks of negative quatloo.


A lot of that can be attributed to the 30q bet with fjord over evidence that the hammer can only levitate. Even if the hamer could only levitate, I have no idea why you accepted such a short horizon on the proof. Even though we suspected the book would be substantially longer at that time.

Also, your providing extra funds for the penny pools hurt.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Xarx » Sat Aug 24, 2013 9:03 am

mortissimus wrote:Oh, I did not realise that was a point of different interpretations.

Well, then: 5q on the army outside the gates being natural allies of Haffaton.


I'll take that.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Mon Aug 26, 2013 1:21 pm

drachefly wrote:
bladestorm wrote:I have dropped from second place to fifth place, and may soon join the ranks of negative quatloo.


A lot of that can be attributed to the 30q bet with fjord over evidence that the hammer can only levitate. Even if the hamer could only levitate, I have no idea why you accepted such a short horizon on the proof. Even though we suspected the book would be substantially longer at that time.

Also, your providing extra funds for the penny pools hurt.

The ending of Book 2 came up a LOT sooner than anticipated. I think the biggest impediment was the fact that it was getting to be so long in between substantial updates that I didn't have enough data for my predictamancy to work with. The outcomes were too fuzzy.

Regardless, it was necessary. Prior to this, there was like 70 points separating 2nd and 3rd place. Stimulus quatloo.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Fri Aug 30, 2013 9:13 pm

Darn, looks like I missed out on some primo bets while I was sick. I'll ask now so there isn't confusion in the future: What happens if Parson is declared to be some sort of omni or null caster? AKA has no prime school either because they're all prime for him, or nothing is. Or what if it is shown that there really isn't any way to determine it?

I was thinking about calling a loss on my bet with Mortissimus about the mide-wipe effect, as it looks like there was some kind of deal with Charlie to suppress information instead, but Jilian may get one from all this smoke. Will give it a few more updates to see. Still, doesn't look good for me there.

As for the broom, I'm not ready to call it. There is a prediction on if that is really an army out there or not, and even if it is, until we get proof that they set it as opposed to simply arriving around the time the broom's fire started. Still, this one also doesn't look great for me :(

Oh, and with the natural ally bet, you might want to clarify if the army has to be 100% natural allies with no Man commanders or anything like that, or mostly natural allies with a Man Commander or what. Just a suggestion.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby No one in particular » Sat Aug 31, 2013 4:21 am

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:Darn, looks like I missed out on some primo bets while I was sick. I'll ask now so there isn't confusion in the future: What happens if Parson is declared to be some sort of omni or null caster? AKA has no prime school either because they're all prime for him, or nothing is. Or what if it is shown that there really isn't any way to determine it?

My exact words were "Parson is a Date-a-mancer"... if he's anything else, I was wrong. The people who bet against me may have been thinking "no way, he's a signamancer/mathamancer/dirtamancer" or anything else, but what they bet on was "he's not a date-a-mancer."

If he's an omni/null caster instead of a date-a-mancer, I'd pay off on that. *shrugs*
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby wih » Sat Aug 31, 2013 4:34 am

This is why my offer (which no-one has taken up on) was "if Parson has a specific Discipline, it's Signamancy". Hedges for if he has all or none.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Sat Aug 31, 2013 7:48 am

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:As for the broom, I'm not ready to call it. There is a prediction on if that is really an army out there or not, and even if it is, until we get proof that they set it as opposed to simply arriving around the time the broom's fire started. Still, this one also doesn't look great for me :(

Agreed all around.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Sat Aug 31, 2013 8:21 pm

wih wrote:This is why my offer (which no-one has taken up on) was "if Parson has a specific Discipline, it's Signamancy". Hedges for if he has all or none.

Hmm, missed that that was open. I'll take you up on it for however many quat you bet. I'm guessing this will be a bust though, as my own prediction is that he doesn't have a normal class, or it'll be impossible for anyone to determine a caster's class if they don't already know it. No quat on... heck, I'll do a 5q bet on that if anyone is interested:

My bet is that Parson doesn't fall into one of the 23 standard classes of caster. Might be that his class is indeterminable, might be that he is good/bad at all of them, or that he is some other form of combo caster. Whatever the case, he won't simply be a sign/math/croak/whatever-a-mancer. You know, besides the fact that he is already a warlord.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Sat Aug 31, 2013 8:22 pm

Oh, and yeah, I said 23 classes. If he is a retconjurer, that's a win for me ;)
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby wih » Sun Sep 01, 2013 12:25 am

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:
wih wrote:This is why my offer (which no-one has taken up on) was "if Parson has a specific Discipline, it's Signamancy". Hedges for if he has all or none.

Hmm, missed that that was open. I'll take you up on it for however many quat you bet.

It was for 20q.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Sun Sep 01, 2013 4:34 pm

wih wrote:
Taikei no Yuurei wrote:
wih wrote:This is why my offer (which no-one has taken up on) was "if Parson has a specific Discipline, it's Signamancy". Hedges for if he has all or none.

Hmm, missed that that was open. I'll take you up on it for however many quat you bet.

It was for 20q.

I'll take you up on the full amount then.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby MadZuri » Mon Sep 02, 2013 12:42 am

MadZuri wrote:
Xarx wrote:New bet: 10q says that the troops outside the emerald city are really a veil cast by archons.

I'll also take that bet.

Well, confirmation that they were indeed the High elves. Evidently Charlescom has his turn after Haffaton, and moved in Archons. This doesn't disprove that there were no archons casting veils. Any neutral parties willing to call it?
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby mortissimus » Mon Sep 02, 2013 5:22 am

These all looks settled:

Kaed bet Mortissimus 10q that Crapsack set the garden ablaze.
~~~~
Takei no Yuurei bet Xarx 5q that the broom started the fire.
~~~~
Xarx bet GWvsJohn and MadZuri 10 each that the troops outside the El-Efbaum are veils cast by archons
~~~~
mortizzimus bet xarx 5q that the army outside the gates of El-Efbaum is (former?) natural allies of Haffaton.


Excellent. (What? No Burns smiley?)
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Xarx » Mon Sep 02, 2013 10:03 am

Yeah, looks like a net loss of 20q for me. I should have just bet that archons were present, but I probably wouldn't have gotten any takers.

Damn, I hate it when a pet theory goes down in flames.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Tue Sep 03, 2013 9:24 am

Yep, my first lost prediction. Ah well, had to happen sooner or later. And looks like my second won't be far behind it, as the mind wipe seems unlikely, though Jillian may get a dose of it. It's hard to say. I should have included a contract not to talk about it. So obvious with a bit of thought really.

Anyway, seems like the only reason the High Elves were working with Haffaton was for the chance to destroy the garden. Not really a prediction per say I suppose, and we may not hear anything else about it.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby mortissimus » Sat Sep 07, 2013 7:59 am

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:I should have included a contract not to talk about it. So obvious with a bit of thought really.


Then I wouldn't have taken it. :)

For the record, I did not see a NDA coming, I just thought mind-wipes unlikely for the reasons I then stated.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Sat Sep 07, 2013 3:12 pm

mortissimus wrote:
Taikei no Yuurei wrote:I should have included a contract not to talk about it. So obvious with a bit of thought really.


Then I wouldn't have taken it. :)

For the record, I did not see a NDA coming, I just thought mind-wipes unlikely for the reasons I then stated.

Yeah, my problem was that I was thinking that instead of a simple NDA, it would be an agreement to be mind wiped, which seemed more likely based on Jillian seeming to have difficulty with what Charlie was etc. But it could be she was fumbling with the NDA instead of not really able to remember.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lipkin » Sat Sep 07, 2013 6:19 pm

I'm gonna bet 5q against the 10q of someone else, that when Jillian's heir pops, it's a caster. Because it would be delicious irony.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Sun Sep 08, 2013 12:10 am

Lipkin wrote:I'm gonna bet 5q against the 10q of someone else, that when Jillian's heir pops, it's a caster. Because it would be delicious irony.

i'll take that.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby wih » Sun Sep 08, 2013 2:05 am

Offering the following bet, as a package of 45 Q/15 each section. If you're taking portions of it, take equal from the three:
- That during Book 3, there will be an attempt to bring a caster into an involuntary link
- That this link will be initiated by Charlie/the Arkendish
- That the target of this link will be Parson

To clarify, if you take this bet for all it's 15/45, and in Book 3 Charlie attempts to involuntarily link Wanda, the net sum would be 15 to me. If Parson tried to involuntarily link Charlie, it would be 15 to you. If you took 5/15, then those example numbers would be 5 each.
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