Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Speculation, discoveries, complaints, accusations, praise, and all other Erfworld discussion.

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby GWvsJohn » Sun Sep 22, 2013 3:33 pm

bpzinn wrote:
GWvsJohn wrote:bpzinn, I'll take 50 of flavor 1, with the caveat that Charlie providing Thinkamancy and Carnymancy to a link does not cause you to win.

I have added a caveat to my win conditions. Is it acceptable?


Alright chums, lets do this.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lipkin » Tue Oct 08, 2013 9:15 am

20q that it will become Parson's goal to make Caesar ruler of Transylvito.

Another 10q that Caesar will be ruler of Transylvito by the end of Book 3.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Tue Oct 08, 2013 1:50 pm

Lipkin wrote:20q that it will become Parson's goal to make Caesar ruler of Transylvito.

Another 10q that Caesar will be ruler of Transylvito by the end of Book 3.

This may put me close to my limit, but I'll take both. I'm of the mind that Caesar will split off onto a new Side not aligned with Royals, being that he is not a Royal and being replaced by a Royal heir. Parson happens to know of several Capitol Sites that Caesar could use, and could arrange to have them barely defended to make them easy to capture. The interesting part would be where Bunny would go.

And I should probably work the math to find out how close I am to my credit limit.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Oberon » Sat Oct 12, 2013 10:32 pm

Is anyone even keeping the book on this thing any longer?
How using capslock wins arguments:
Zeroberon wrote:So we know with 100% certainty that THIS IS HOW TRI-LINKS WORK, PERIOD END OF STORY.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Sat Oct 12, 2013 11:01 pm

I'm not entirely sure what you mean. It's been 4 days since a bet was made, and a bit longer since one resolved, which makes sense since we're between books.

Do you mean a particular pool?

(edited: I just added a bet. Looks alive to me.)
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby zilfallon » Mon Oct 14, 2013 8:20 am

So...I say that Parson's gaming group will be summoned to Erfworld by Charlie in hopes of countering him. (prolly he'll try to summon "genius warlords who know parson" or somethn)

Anyone taking this long-term bet?

I didn't read all the bets so, sorry if this is already bet.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Whispri » Mon Oct 14, 2013 8:48 am

Doesn't matter eitherway, you can freely offer a new bet identical to one someone else has placed. That said, you need to put up some quatloo before a bet can be made.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby No one in particular » Tue Nov 19, 2013 2:25 pm

Another couple of months gone by, another 20q to throw in my pot.

Anyone want in on this? Anyone want to up raise their bet?

Refresher
Bet: Parson is a Date-a-mancer
Yes: (130)
    No one in particular - 130
No: (110)
    Lilwik - 10
    Taikei no Yuurei - 10
    drachefly - 20
    xarx - 20
    mortissimus - 20
    wih - 30
--edit--
And just for my own ease of record keeping...
0beron - 10 on "No"
mortissimus + 10 (total of 30)
Last edited by No one in particular on Tue Nov 19, 2013 4:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby 0beron » Tue Nov 19, 2013 2:29 pm

Wow it's been ages since I have bet, I have a huge debt limit by now haha. I will add 10Q in for No.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby mortissimus » Tue Nov 19, 2013 3:27 pm

Sure, I'll add another 10Q to my bet too.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby mortissimus » Tue Nov 19, 2013 3:49 pm

That reminds me to check my bets.

Shai-hulud bet mortissimus 10q that Wanda has seen what Charlie really looks like, if only briefly, by the end of the current (Jillian/FAQ) storyline of Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower). She does not need to meet him.


With episode 81 being the end of part 2 of book 0, I'd say I won that. (The floating head was noted as not being how Charlie actually looks.)

Takei no Yuurei bet Mortissimus 5q that some form of mindwipe happens before the end of book 0.


With the description of what happened to Jillian in episode 81, I lost that one.

Which means I won one (with Kaed, stipulating mind-wipes all around as part of a FAQ-Charlie deal during the trial) and lost one the mind-wipes. The mind-wipe being used only on Jillian with the rest merely forbidden to talk about it, avoids the trap of just erasing the consequences of the prequel. Instead it adds a suppressed content to Jillians relationships with Jack, Wanda and Charlie. Gotta keep that in mind next time I re-read books one and two ("may I call you mind-slave" suddenly looks more sinister). I bet against a poor storytelling device and get a really good one, so I am glad to loose that one.

Oh, and that should land me at second place, ahead of Drachefly but still trailing Whispri. Unless there are some bets that should be closed in Drachefly's favor, of course.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby GJC » Wed Nov 20, 2013 6:02 am

GJC bet Lamech 10q that, by the end of Jetstone's turn, Tramennis will be ruler of Jetstone. A Slately clone depopping at the end of turn counts. (We'll wait for direct confirmation on the extreme off chance that Ansom ends up being ruler)


This one seems to be settled, finally.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Whispri » Wed Nov 20, 2013 10:23 am

mortissimus wrote:Oh, and that should land me at second place, ahead of Drachefly but still trailing Whispri. Unless there are some bets that should be closed in Drachefly's favor, of course.

Huh. Looks like there's something I have to do...

*Swims in quatloos like Scrooge McDuck*
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Wed Nov 20, 2013 10:45 am

Updating...
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Whispri » Wed Nov 20, 2013 10:47 am

drachefly wrote:Whispri is at 95q and has 79q outstanding

First off, by my count I only have 49 quatloo outstanding.

Second off...

drachefly wrote:~~~~
Lamech bet SNfinity 10q that Ansom became king of Jetstone when real Slately died. See page 11 for exact terms.
~~~~
Kandarin bet Bladestorm 10q that sometime in Book 0, Wanda will try to uncroak a caster and find out the hard way that they can no longer cast.
~~~~
Oberon (Oh) wagers Bladestorm 20 quatloos that Parson and at least but not limited to Wanda do pass through the Jetstone portal. This does not have to be together, but it will be this day. (Wanda passed through the Spacerock portal on page 111, but it was no longer the Jetstone portal)
~~~~
Takei no Yuurei bet Bladestorm 10q that no more than 2 units die in MK by the end of the turn.
~~~~

Looks to me like these ones have been resolved for certain.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Wed Nov 20, 2013 11:09 am

On the second - Book 0 is not over. Part 2 of book 0 is over. ETA: ohright. Wanda did decrypt Olive. Checking it out to see whether she learned the hard way that she couldn't cast. We don't see directly, but signs are that she didn't.

I resolved the first and third during a crosspost. I didn't see the fourth; I'll get it.

I'll go and recheck the 'out' figures. Yeah, there were a few errors. That's why I keep the full list on hand.
~~~~
Now, we need to do something about the pool on what Parson's genius idea was. As I see it, there are two roughly-equally valid candidates:
*winner?* Drachefly: Something that is not a tri-link. (pretty self-explanatory)
*winner?* Werebiscuit: Something that involves the bracer but not the scroll (He probably used the bracer to calibrate the forces, but the plan itself did not involve the bracer)
I can split it, but I'll accept if the crowd thinks one or the other of us was more precise or less accurate.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Werebiscuit » Wed Nov 20, 2013 12:09 pm

drachefly wrote:.
~~~~
Now, we need to do something about the pool on what Parson's genius idea was. As I see it, there are two roughly-equally valid candidates:
*winner?* Drachefly: Something that is not a tri-link. (pretty self-explanatory)
*winner?* Werebiscuit: Something that involves the bracer but not the scroll (He probably used the bracer to calibrate the forces, but the plan itself did not involve the bracer)I can split it, but I'll accept if the crowd thinks one or the other of us was more precise or less accurate.


I'll concede on that count as there's only a "probably used" the bracer and not any certainty...and secondly even if it was used it was only used indirectly to calibrate and not involved directly in the plan
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Wed Nov 20, 2013 12:13 pm

In that case I'm ahead again. Kind of sad that I won 25q with a catch-all like that. Seriously, no one took the 'take over the MK!' position in that pool? We were all talking about it.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Werebiscuit » Wed Nov 20, 2013 12:20 pm

drachefly wrote:In that case I'm ahead again. Kind of sad that I won 25q with a catch-all like that. Seriously, no one took the 'take over the MK!' position in that pool? We were all talking about it.

We obviously don't consider ourselves geniuses (or is that genii ?) as the "invade the MK" seemed too obvious and not genius enough to be considered his entire plan
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Fri Nov 22, 2013 10:26 pm

With Book 0 wrapping up soon, several more bets may be determined. Hopefully with the other prequel and Book 3 coming up, I can dust off my predictamancy skills, which are basically caked with cobwebs at this point and losing me points.
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