Book 2 – Page 114

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Re: Book 2 – Page 114

Postby Lilwik » Tue Nov 05, 2013 5:09 am

Mrtyuh wrote:What if one of the things Carnymancy does is create Fates.
That's what I've always thought Carnymancy was about ever since we learned about Sylvia. It seems obvious to me that Sylvia never had a Fate until Jojo worked his magic, because surely natural Fate doesn't work that way. The things that happened to Sylvia were just wildly unlikely. Natural Fate would work by natural means, the way Wanda was forced to join Haffaton entirely by force of the situation with no bizarre coincidences popping up to make it happen. Sylvia's Fate, on the other hand, was obviously rigged, surely because Carnymancy magically contrived to have things happen that way. And I doubt that Sylvia had a different Fate before Jojo's spell, because the confidence of Predictamancers makes me sure that once a unit has a Fate, there's no changing it.

Or perhaps I'm misrepresenting the details. Perhaps Sylvia was Fated to die from burning before Jojo cast the spell. Perhaps everyone becomes Fated to die from the thing that kills them moments before dying, if not earlier. So by the time Jojo got to Sylvia it was too late for him to change that part of her Fate. Then using Carnymancy he pushed and pulled at her Fate to see where the rules of Fate magic would allow him to make changes, re-targeting her death to a fire far in the future, but he can only make that happen if he rigs her Fate so that nothing else can kill her until that fire. Arrows might try to croak her, but in order for the rules of Fate magic to allow the spell to work, the Carnymancy has to delicately plot her trajectory so it avoids every single one. I guess.

However the details work out, I'm quite sure Sylvia had an artificial Fate.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 114

Postby Shai_hulud » Tue Nov 05, 2013 11:33 am

Olive had a natural fate, but the game was "rigged" like Carnymancy to save her from anything other than Jillian.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 114

Postby Denar » Tue Nov 05, 2013 1:07 pm

I'd have thought Jillian had the Fate to be the one that croaked the ruler of Haffaton. Olive being Ruler was incidental, Fate didn't care who it was as long as Jillian croaked them.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 114

Postby 0beron » Tue Nov 05, 2013 1:13 pm

Denar wrote:I'd have thought Jillian had the Fate to be the one that croaked the ruler of Haffaton. Olive being Ruler was incidental, Fate didn't care who it was as long as Jillian croaked them.
That is harder to say. The Prediction is that she was to croak the Ruler of Haffaton. The use of a title rather than name could imply that Fate didn't care who it was (as you suggest), or instead could simply mean the Prediction was incomplete as Predictamancy often is.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 114

Postby Shai_hulud » Tue Nov 05, 2013 2:24 pm

I only meant that natural fate also causes weird improbable misses like Carnymancy. So improbable that people observing, even a Predictamancer, thought it was unusual. So the theory that natural fate doesn't cause crazy nonsense to pigeon hole people into events appears to be wrong in that case. That's all I was pointing out.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 114

Postby Lilwik » Tue Nov 05, 2013 7:07 pm

Shai_hulud wrote:I only meant that natural fate also causes weird improbable misses like Carnymancy. So improbable that people observing, even a Predictamancer, thought it was unusual.
What are you specifically talking about? I don't remember anything like that happening.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 114

Postby 0beron » Tue Nov 05, 2013 7:11 pm

Well for example, Jillian killing Olive seems to be "Natural Fate" as now known Carnymancy was practiced on her. Yet unusual events and fate "rail-roading" still ocurred. So I think what Shai is saying is that regardless of how the Fate is created, the mechanics to enforce it will be the same.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 114

Postby Lilwik » Tue Nov 05, 2013 7:28 pm

0beron wrote:Well for example, Jillian killing Olive seems to be "Natural Fate" as now known Carnymancy was practiced on her. Yet unusual events and fate "rail-roading" still ocurred. So I think what Shai is saying is that regardless of how the Fate is created, the mechanics to enforce it will be the same.
But there were no unusual events of the contrived or unlikely sort, and the rail-roading was all of the natural sort. I mean, Jillian wanted to kill Olive. She didn't need rail-roading for that. Faq was nearly surrounded by Haffaton territory, and Haffaton cities were temptingly undefended. In a situation like that, given Jillian's mission, Jillian's original capture was practically inevitable for entirely natural reasons. Everything that followed from that seemed natural too. The least likely thing was Jillian's escape which required serious cleverness, but that was working against her Fate, not toward it.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 114

Postby Keighvin1 » Tue Nov 05, 2013 9:08 pm

Perhaps they are talking about how Olive couldn't be shot down until the broom was targeted, not too dissimilar to Sylvia being saved from the arrows.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 114

Postby ftl » Tue Nov 05, 2013 9:55 pm

It is, on the other hand, a little weird that Jillian never killed *Judy*. Olive deliberately put her ruler, defenseless, in the same place as an unshacked violent prisoner, and what happened? Nothing.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 114

Postby Lilwik » Tue Nov 05, 2013 10:11 pm

Keighvin1 wrote:Perhaps they are talking about how Olive couldn't be shot down until the broom was targeted, not too dissimilar to Sylvia being saved from the arrows.
Of course the fact that they had a hard time hitting Olive wasn't weird at all. Jillian made that clear.

Book 0, Episode 64: “Oh, one? Against a high-level caster? I mean...” Jillian couldn’t see what harm it would do. “We can try it,” she said. “But it would have to be one really lucky shot.”

It's amazing that they managed to hit anything at all, but of course that wasn't natural; that was Predictamancy at work turning a single shot into effectively many shots by making hypothetical shots as good as real shots. Marie allowed Wanda to try to shoot and miss countless times without actually wasting the real shot. The fact that Wanda didn't hit until she deliberately aimed for the broom instead of the rider realistically shouldn't mean anything since at that distance she could easily have aimed for the rider and hit the broom, or aimed for the broom and hit the rider. Perhaps some Erfworlders have the same subconscious urge to avoid shooting people that many Stupidworlders have and that's what was making Wanda miss.

ftl wrote:It is, on the other hand, a little weird that Jillian never killed *Judy*. Olive deliberately put her ruler, defenseless, in the same place as an unshacked violent prisoner, and what happened? Nothing.
Judy was adorable. I have a hard time imagining anyone less evil than Olive wanting to kill Judy.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 114

Postby ftl » Tue Nov 05, 2013 10:20 pm

You really have trouble imagining Jillian, a warlord, wanting to croak the ruler of an enemy side? Really?

Do you think that when Jillian is out on mercenary contracts, she typically spares people who are "adorable"?
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Re: Book 2 – Page 114

Postby ftl » Tue Nov 05, 2013 10:43 pm

Personally, I would expect any unit of any side which considers Haffaton an enemy to want to croak Judy. And FAQ would fit that bill.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 114

Postby Lilwik » Tue Nov 05, 2013 10:45 pm

ftl wrote:You really have trouble imagining Jillian, a warlord, wanting to croak the ruler of an enemy side? Really?
It wasn't a battle. Killing Judy would have been murder, and on top of that Judy seemed harmless. Jillian even mistook Judy for a prisoner until informed otherwise, and Jillian had no way of knowing that killing Judy would improve anything. We happen to know that it would have made things worse for Jillian (so much for the Easy Way). In that case Jillian killing Judy would seem a bit weird, though I agree there was always a chance that it could have happened. I'm sure Olive was surprised that it didn't happen.

ftl wrote:Do you think that when Jillian is out on mercenary contracts, she typically spares people who are "adorable"?
I doubt she encounters many adorable people in battle. The ones she kills are probably mostly trying to kill her. If earning her pay ended up requiring her do some murder than I guess she might do some murder, but killing Judy was not that situation.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 114

Postby Shai_hulud » Wed Nov 06, 2013 12:39 am

Keighvin1 wrote:Perhaps they are talking about how Olive couldn't be shot down until the broom was targeted, not too dissimilar to Sylvia being saved from the arrows.

Yeah, that. Arrows couldn't hit Sylvia no matter how many shots were fired. Magic missile couldn't hit Olive no matter how many pseudo shots were fired.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 114

Postby Lilwik » Wed Nov 06, 2013 1:00 am

Shai_hulud wrote:Yeah, that. Arrows couldn't hit Sylvia no matter how many shots were fired. Magic missile couldn't hit Olive no matter how many pseudo shots were fired.
There is such a huge difference. Sylvia had bizarre luck about arrows being deflected, avoiding being shot when by nature she should have been shot. Olive didn't have any luck like that; she was merely a distance away and a high level caster in the sort of situation where by nature she should have escaped. Jillian considered trying to shoot Olive to be a pointless gesture. It was only Predictamancy that allowed Olive to be captured.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 114

Postby Mrtyuh » Wed Nov 06, 2013 5:51 am

Denar wrote:I'd have thought Jillian had the Fate to be the one that croaked the ruler of Haffaton. Olive being Ruler was incidental, Fate didn't care who it was as long as Jillian croaked them.

True, and that vagueness is exactly why Olive was so keen to have Judy be the subject of the Prediction, so that she would be free of that particular Sword of Damocles hanging over her reign.

0beron wrote:
Denar wrote:I'd have thought Jillian had the Fate to be the one that croaked the ruler of Haffaton. Olive being Ruler was incidental, Fate didn't care who it was as long as Jillian croaked them.
That is harder to say. The Prediction is that she was to croak the Ruler of Haffaton. The use of a title rather than name could imply that Fate didn't care who it was (as you suggest), or instead could simply mean the Prediction was incomplete as Predictamancy often is.

Of course there is another option. Predictamancers can make choices, and they can choice to withhold information and even outright lie. We also know that the better one knew Dame Branch, the more likely they would be to dislike her. While we know nothing to support this, the option exists that Maya Calendar knew exactly to whom the Prediction referred, but chose to keep the specifics secret to help ease Olive on her path.

Lilwik wrote:But there were no unusual events of the contrived or unlikely sort, and the rail-roading was all of the natural sort. I mean, Jillian wanted to kill Olive. She didn't need rail-roading for that. Faq was nearly surrounded by Haffaton territory, and Haffaton cities were temptingly undefended. In a situation like that, given Jillian's mission, Jillian's original capture was practically inevitable for entirely natural reasons. Everything that followed from that seemed natural too. The least likely thing was Jillian's escape which required serious cleverness, but that was working against her Fate, not toward it.

At the time she was a fugitive, Haffaton controlled thirteen capital sites, excluding Haffaton itself, which Jillian was fleeing. They also possessed an unknown but commensurate number of lesser cities. Despite this, the city Jillian finally worked up the courage to approach was Goodminton. When she razed Goodminton, she landed on a tannenbaum and was recaptured, after having decided to launch a capital strike against the city of Haffaton instead of conspiring with Wanda. As soon as Olive decided to croak Jillian if she didn't turn, King Banhammer arrived to rescue his daughter. While it may not have been as overt as with Silvia and Artemis at the Battle of Spacerock, there seemed to me to be plenty of railroading going on with Jillian.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 114

Postby Lilwik » Wed Nov 06, 2013 6:33 am

Mrtyuh wrote:At the time she was a fugitive, Haffaton controlled thirteen capital sites, excluding Haffaton itself, which Jillian was fleeing. They also possessed an unknown but commensurate number of lesser cities. Despite this, the city Jillian finally worked up the courage to approach was Goodminton.
That is an interesting coincidence, but it's hard for me to call it railroading since it seems to be a meaningless coincidence rather than something forcing Jillian in a certain direction. Jillian happened to stop in Goodminton which happened to give Delphie a chance to give Jillian some advice. If it had been any other city Delphie wouldn't have been able to give advice, but otherwise it probably wouldn't have changed much, especially since Jillian ignored the advice.

Mrtyuh wrote:When she razed Goodminton, she landed on a tannenbaum and was recaptured, after having decided to launch a capital strike against the city of Haffaton instead of conspiring with Wanda.
We don't know that Jillian ever had a real possibility of escaping all the way back to Faq. With or without railroading I expect Olive would have recaptured Jillian eventually. Even if Jillian could have made it all the way back to Faq, Olive would probably have captured Jillian when Haffaton invaded Faq. It all seems perfectly natural to me.

Mrtyuh wrote:As soon as Olive decided to croak Jillian if she didn't turn, King Banhammer arrived to rescue his daughter.
That's not as strange a coincidence as it might seem. Olive had excellent reasons not to kill Jillian, so it's no surprise that Olive delayed doing it for so long. At the very least Olive had to delay killing Jillian until after the invasion of Faq because that had a good chance of causing Jillian to turn. As soon as the invasion happened the clock started ticking toward Banhammer coming to rescue Jillian, and Olive still needed time to return from Faq to make another attempt at turning Jillian, plus allowing some time for Jillian to think about turning. By the time Olive could seriously consider killing Jillian, Banhammer must have been nearly to Efbaum.

That just leaves the coincidence of Banhammer arriving on the exact same turn that Olive decided to kill Jillian. Actually those events have a perfectly natural connection: Olive knew that Faq was in the battlespace when she decided to kill Jillian. It could easily be that Olive only made that choice because she realized that she was almost out of time. (This all happens in Episodes 56 and 57.)
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Re: Book 2 – Page 114

Postby Lipkin » Wed Nov 06, 2013 7:06 am

Can you explain how Delphie predicted Jillian would come to Goodminton and find the message if it wasn't rail roading that brought her there?
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Re: Book 2 – Page 114

Postby Mrtyuh » Wed Nov 06, 2013 9:14 am

Lilwik wrote:It wasn't a battle. Killing Judy would have been murder....

Jillian said, “You know, I think I did my part just by not croaking her.” Jillian did at least entertain the notion of croaking Judy, and she relished the idea of croaking Olive, even when she was a prisoner. If it wasn't for her Loyalty to Banhammer, who was against it and even prevented it once, she would have croaked Dame Branch sooner. The only reason Jillian didn't croak Judy is because she liked her. I seriously doubt Jillian has any moral compunctions against committing murder. In her mind, the fact that it's an enemy unit is plenty of justification.

Lilwik wrote:But there were no unusual events of the contrived or unlikely sort...The least likely thing was Jillian's escape which required serious cleverness, but that was working against her Fate, not toward it.


Lilwik wrote:That is an interesting coincidence, but it's hard for me to call it railroading since it seems to be a meaningless coincidence rather than something forcing Jillian in a certain direction. Jillian happened to stop in Goodminton which happened to give Delphie a chance to give Jillian some advice. If it had been any other city Delphie wouldn't have been able to give advice, but otherwise it probably wouldn't have changed much, especially since Jillian ignored the advice.

In literature, the difference between a coincidence and a contrivance is how natural it seems. The more coincidences that pile up, the more likely they will be seen as contrivances, but it is subjective to the individual reader. To you, it seemed completely natural. To me, it was somewhat contrived by the end. To other readers, it may have seemed hamfisted. Also, given that Delphie Temple Predicted that Jillian would come to Goodminton, it was her Fate to do so, so she was not working against her Fate, she was fulfilling it.

Lilwik wrote:We don't know that Jillian ever had a real possibility of escaping all the way back to Faq. With or without railroading I expect Olive would have recaptured Jillian eventually. Even if Jillian could have made it all the way back to Faq, Olive would probably have captured Jillian when Haffaton invaded Faq. It all seems perfectly natural to me.

Jillian had an easy way to avoid capture. She could have messaged Wanda by hat. If the two had conspired together, Wanda probably could have given a virtually complete, if not entirely complete, disposition of Haffaton's units. That would have guaranteed Jillian avoiding recapture. Wanda could have given her the location of Judy and Olive, guiding her towards her Fate. Instead she chose to attack the city of Haffaton. There was a problem with that, though. Neither Judy nor Olive were there, so Fate had to intervene and literally drag her insensate to Efbaum, where her Fate awaited.

Lilwik wrote:That's not as strange a coincidence as it might seem. Olive had excellent reasons not to kill Jillian, so it's no surprise that Olive delayed doing it for so long. At the very least Olive had to delay killing Jillian until after the invasion of Faq because that had a good chance of causing Jillian to turn. As soon as the invasion happened the clock started ticking toward Banhammer coming to rescue Jillian, and Olive still needed time to return from Faq to make another attempt at turning Jillian, plus allowing some time for Jillian to think about turning. By the time Olive could seriously consider killing Jillian, Banhammer must have been nearly to Efbaum.

That just leaves the coincidence of Banhammer arriving on the exact same turn that Olive decided to kill Jillian. Actually those events have a perfectly natural connection: Olive knew that Faq was in the battlespace when she decided to kill Jillian. It could easily be that Olive only made that choice because she realized that she was almost out of time. (This all happens in Episodes 56 and 57.)

It's a bigger coincidence than you realize. Jillian had sent the Faq contingent towards the city of Haffaton, but they came to Efbaum instead. I can't remember it being stated how they found her, but it was probably a combination of Marie's Predictamancy and Orwell's Lookamancy. Still, given that Haffaton only encountered el-Efbaum after a long period of expansion, it isn't unreasonable to think that the two cities are not exactly in the same environs. To me, at least, the threat to Jillian's life was a fairly unsuccessful ploy to build suspense. This is a prequel. There was never any question of where she'd end up, only a question of how she got there. So that part of the story seemed very forced to me. As I stated before, different readers will have different view on the flow of events. Your views are completely valid, but so are dissenting views.
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