Digdoug - Episode 7

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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Jacinth and Rubies » Thu Feb 27, 2014 4:29 pm

cheeseaholic wrote:I'm a bit curious about the end of the conversation here. The king says they'll need another loophole, but the prediction that he says doesn't require one for them to survive. They "will face a major attack on the City of Homekey, and that it will come by air". Why do they need a loophole for that? I mean, I can see some. Enemy units come and threaten attack but then leave maybe. Or the father nation threatens to break alliance with massive air units. But why do they *need* a loophole? Why is fighting not simply good enough? I wonder if there's more to that prediction. Hell, there's not even a vague timeframe reference. If I were the king I'd set up a line of succession with a contract that the city will automagically change name if the king is croaked and then head off somewhere else. If there's more to the prophesy than is stated, such that the attack is imminent, hire Charlie to attack the city and blame it on the enemy to try to make the parent nation more afraid and less likely to turn then try to patch up relations with them. Or maybe just buff up defenses then.

Oh, and I forgot to mention, change the capital.


Well, the thing about Predictions is that they tell you what will happen - not what you should do about it, or what actions will best benefit you. King Posbrake's capital is not set up for air defence, and his army isn't expecting it, as Numloch has little in the way of air units and they are allied (for now) with Delkey. So he knows that a major attack is coming by air on Homekey - but what should he do? How best to prepare for it? It seems Posbrake wasn't told the outcome of the attack (or he is possibly holding it back), but having learned from the first prediction that any Prediction's wording is important, he's trying to figure out how best to move forward to ensure victory for his side. Maybe his gambles will work, maybe they won't, but if they do work, his continued success will hopefully indicate to future rulers that some traditional wisdom is erroneous, and can be used to tactical advantage in some cases.

I expect changing the capital costs major schmuckers, way too much to hide from Delkey - from whom we are expecting the atttack. They'd just change their destination accordingly. And you still need to have a capital city on your side.

LOL, I wonder if there ever was a ruler stupid enough to try eliminating his own capital, inadvertently made himself a barbarian in the process, lost all his units and such, and had to abandon the place as his purse didn't have enough income to re-found the side, and watched as his former kingdom was subsumed by his neighbours?
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby MadZuri » Thu Feb 27, 2014 4:36 pm

cheeseaholic wrote:Actually, hell, just gift the city to someone and avoid taking it back. That way you won't come under attack there until you're tricked into taking the city back. Which will be a long time from now. Which you'll have to be around to do.

That may be their only capital site, and also most likely their highest level city and the source of the majority of their income.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lilwik » Thu Feb 27, 2014 4:46 pm

mcw0933 wrote:View #2 implies that Fate rules. Basically, there is a single, set future. Predictamancy is merely the act of seeing some bit of the future and telling people about it. The Prediction itself changes nothing - because nothing can change.
That's not what it means. Things that will happen no matter what don't need to be fixed for all time. Take a baseball and pitch it. You choose when and in what direction to throw the ball. Up until the moment you begin to throw you have total control over where the ball will go, but after that it's course is inevitable. The fluid course of events can naturally lead to situations where certain outcomes are fixed at certain times. If Predictamancy is restricted to only making Predictions about those outcomes when they become fixed, then that is also a #2 type of Predictamancy, but it's far less radical than what you describe.

0beron wrote:There are in Erfworld "Fixed Points", however not all of the details of these fixed points are static. The event may occur at any given time, or it may involve differing individuals, or etc, but it will always happen in some manner. These "Fixed Points" are connected by spans of totally free time that may progress based on the free-will actions of units and the environment.
That sounds like a straight-forward description of the behaviour of Predictamancers as we have observed it, except that I would also add the possibility of fixed points coming into existence over time. A Predictamancer can see which direction you will dodge before you actually do it, but only a moment before because until that moment even you hadn't decided your dodge. While the future is still being shaped by people's choices and random events, the fixed points don't exist. They only form as outcomes become inevitable because people become committed to certain paths.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby mcw0933 » Thu Feb 27, 2014 5:08 pm

Lilwik wrote:The fluid course of events can naturally lead to situations where certain outcomes are fixed at certain times. If Predictamancy is restricted to only making Predictions about those outcomes when they become fixed, then that is also a #2 type of Predictamancy, but it's far less radical than what you describe.


I think we agree? But I'm calling that view of Fate's role as View #3, which is also similar to 0beron's "fixed points." Your dodge example suggests that you don't think Predictamancy "fixes" an unfixed outcome, it just observes the outcome.

I'm not trying to argue "whether or not a Prediction will come true." (It will.) What I am trying to discuss is what type of reality Erfworld is. Meaning, how "strong" is Fate versus Numbers. We can't say for certain whether or not all of Erfworld's history was preordained by the Titans.

(But in a meta sense... it pretty much is! :D)
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Free Radical » Thu Feb 27, 2014 5:48 pm

Lilwik wrote:That sounds like a straight-forward description of the behaviour of Predictamancers as we have observed it, except that I would also add the possibility of fixed points coming into existence over time.

I think we have evidence of that - Marie's description of points in time where everything after is hard for her to see suggests it quite strongly:

"Shouldn't you know?" he asked, absently. The conversation was less real than the displacement of dirt, the Stuffmancy of constructing beams and lights, packing the tunnel floor solid. But some part of him couldn't help being curious. Predictamancers were hard to talk to about their discipline. This was a rare chance.

"Oh I should," said Marie. "Yes. But turns like this, they come up time to time and everything afta is cloudy. Something has to get decided today, Sizemore. Fate will go fowad from there."
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lilwik » Thu Feb 27, 2014 7:03 pm

mcw0933 wrote:I think we agree? But I'm calling that view of Fate's role as View #3, which is also similar to 0beron's "fixed points."
No, I think Type 3 Predictamancy is quite unlikely. My impression from everything I've seen is that Predictamancy is a purely passive magic that is strictly in the business of making predictions about the future, not in the business of actually causing anything to happen. Type 3 Predictamancy causes things and is directly responsible for the outcomes that it Predicts because it locks in outcomes that didn't necessarily have to happen otherwise. 0beron's fixed points don't include anything like that.

I respect that we have no way of really knowing which type of Predictamancy Erfworld actually has. I think Arky is exactly right about that, but I still think certain possibilities are more likely than others just because they make more intuitive and thematic sense. For example, if Predictamancy is actually controlling the future rather than just predicting it then Predictamancy is terribly misnamed, and we should expect that it's not misnamed, therefore Type 3 is unlikely.

mcw0933 wrote:I'm not trying to argue "whether or not a Prediction will come true." (It will.)
I think at this point everyone agrees with that. At least it would come as a major shock to everyone if Predictamancy ever gets something wrong.

mcw0933 wrote:We can't say for certain whether or not all of Erfworld's history was preordained by the Titans.
That's technically true, but I'm still pretty sure that it isn't preordained. The Titans created a world with Luckamancy and that would be a strange thing to do if they had already preordained all of Erfworld's history.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Arky » Thu Feb 27, 2014 7:48 pm

Jacinth and Rubies wrote:LOL, I wonder if there ever was a ruler stupid enough to try eliminating his own capital, inadvertently made himself a barbarian in the process, lost all his units and such, and had to abandon the place as his purse didn't have enough income to re-found the side, and watched as his former kingdom was subsumed by his neighbours?


We've seen some pretty stupid people in Erfworld. It has probably happened. I don't think Stanley would have made that specific mistake, but you can see someone manipulating another Stanley-esque ruler into thinking it is a cunning plan for some reason or other (perhaps stepping in at a critical point with a Moneymancer to siphon off some Schmuckers so that the idiot ruler suddenly can't re-found the side as he thought he could).
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Omnimancer » Thu Feb 27, 2014 11:06 pm

Arky wrote:
Jacinth and Rubies wrote:LOL, I wonder if there ever was a ruler stupid enough to try eliminating his own capital, inadvertently made himself a barbarian in the process, lost all his units and such, and had to abandon the place as his purse didn't have enough income to re-found the side, and watched as his former kingdom was subsumed by his neighbours?


We've seen some pretty stupid people in Erfworld. It has probably happened. I don't think Stanley would have made that specific mistake, but you can see someone manipulating another Stanley-esque ruler into thinking it is a cunning plan for some reason or other (perhaps stepping in at a critical point with a Moneymancer to siphon off some Schmuckers so that the idiot ruler suddenly can't re-found the side as he thought he could).


That might not be a bad strategy in some situations though...

Let's say your last city, the capital faces imminent attack, and is certain to be captured. A ruler could potentially spend the rest of the treasury popping good units, stack with them, then ends his side by razing the capitol for shmuckers to maintain his own upkeep. Then he escapes with the units as a barbarian.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby cheeseaholic » Thu Feb 27, 2014 11:14 pm

Omnimancer wrote:
Arky wrote:
Jacinth and Rubies wrote:LOL, I wonder if there ever was a ruler stupid enough to try eliminating his own capital, inadvertently made himself a barbarian in the process, lost all his units and such, and had to abandon the place as his purse didn't have enough income to re-found the side, and watched as his former kingdom was subsumed by his neighbours?


We've seen some pretty stupid people in Erfworld. It has probably happened. I don't think Stanley would have made that specific mistake, but you can see someone manipulating another Stanley-esque ruler into thinking it is a cunning plan for some reason or other (perhaps stepping in at a critical point with a Moneymancer to siphon off some Schmuckers so that the idiot ruler suddenly can't re-found the side as he thought he could).


That might not be a bad strategy in some situations though...

Let's say your last city, the capital faces imminent attack, and is certain to be captured. A ruler could potentially spend the rest of the treasury popping good units, stack with them, then ends his side by razing the capitol for shmuckers to maintain his own upkeep. Then he escapes with the units as a barbarian.


Best of all, that makes them barbarians, which means first turn strike.

That would be a hilarious way to gain a turn to say, attack an enemy capital before they can attack you. Your chief warlord/heir is almost there, but they're gonna reach you first. Have everyone join the warlord's stack and then store/spend all the treasury and burn down the capital.

Hell, you could do that for any target high value enough if you got the oppurtunity and it was worth the shmucker cost. Say the enemy ruler with an early turn order was assaulting your cities personally....

Moneymancers making gems of all your cash would make that a fairly cheap strategy, if you had a weak capital, since you could just gem all your money. Assuming you had a late turn order anyway. Easier than a turnamancer trimancer link to try I'd guess.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lilwik » Thu Feb 27, 2014 11:27 pm

Omnimancer wrote:Let's say your last city, the capital faces imminent attack, and is certain to be captured. A ruler could potentially spend the rest of the treasury popping good units, stack with them, then ends his side by razing the capitol for shmuckers to maintain his own upkeep. Then he escapes with the units as a barbarian.
That sounds a lot like what Charlie did in Book 0, Episode 68, except for some reason he didn't raze the city. I guess that his purse was already full, so more shmuckers would have been useless to him.

Remember that a side doesn't end just because its capital is lost. The ruler is the real critical point of a side; if there are no heirs then the side will die with the ruler. Losing the capital just demotes the side to barbarians and disbands most units in the field. I'm sure that's a huge blow to a side, but Faq has proven that it is survivable.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Nows7 » Fri Feb 28, 2014 4:06 am

The next attack bing coming by air doesn't mean archons or gwiffins attacking the tower; it means Prince Creen daintily floating in and attacking their soverinty and their schmukers.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lilwik » Fri Feb 28, 2014 4:33 am

Nows7 wrote:The next attack bing coming by air doesn't mean archons or gwiffins attacking the tower; it means Prince Creen daintily floating in and attacking their soverinty and their schmukers.
People in Erfworld know what an attack looks like, and they would not be at all amused by that bit of cleverness. A Predictamancer that tried to claim that something like that was the Predicted attack would be traded away or disbanded so fast and she would have ruined the reputation of Predictamancy among the people of that side. I think there's close to zero chance that an attack by air means anything other than an actual battle.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Jacinth and Rubies » Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:58 am

Nows7 wrote:The next attack bing coming by air doesn't mean archons or gwiffins attacking the tower; it means Prince Creen daintily floating in and attacking their soverinty and their schmukers.


Prince Creen might be leading, but he definitely won't be alone; the Prediction did say "major attack", and I sincerely doubt that Posbrake's reason for tower reinforcement is that he is seriously worried about his dandy of a brother plinking away at the tower all by himself.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby YRM_DM » Fri Feb 28, 2014 11:40 am

If he didn't want to open the books because he hired a predictomancer, and the reason for the air attack is that he wouldn't open his books, then it was another erf-fulfilling prediction.

Any idea when the next comic book might start? Has Rob mentioned it somewhere and I missed it?
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby cheeseaholic » Fri Feb 28, 2014 12:38 pm

I just hope he doesn't buff up the air defenses so much that he leaves the garrison mostly undefended. Creen and a moderate group of allies could land there and then turn and take the city if he loads up the tower/walls with archers and leaves a modest garrison.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Gnomeo » Fri Feb 28, 2014 1:49 pm

Forgive me if this theory has been brought up before, but I think Posbrake is focusing his schmuckers in the wrong place by shoring up the tower.

Sides avoid Predictamancy because it's "bad luck". This stems from the unreliability of the information received as it is dependent on interpretation. Posbrake thought he would lose Weatherbug because Predictamancy determined that all speaking units would croak, but Weatherbug held because a non-speaking unit survived. His interpretation of the Predictamancy was incorrect.

Now he sends Digdug to fortify a tower because, “The Predictamancer also said we would face a major attack on the City of Homekey, and that it would come by air." What if his interpretation here is incorrect as well? What if the Predictamancer actually said, "the attack will come by heir"? That would mean the attack could be from land, which would pose a problem for a strategy focused on defending against air units.

Just my 2 schmuckers.

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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby mcw0933 » Fri Feb 28, 2014 1:55 pm

Gnomeo wrote:What if the Predictamancer actually said, "the attack will come by heir"?


Yeah, I'm worried that our second-hand version of this Prediction has been subjected to the Telephone game, on top of the standard "delicate phrasing."

On a related but totally cheeky note, I was thinking that if it had been Marie doing the prediction, she'd have said "... kum by yahr", which would suggest... an invasion of Hippiemancers through the portal? :D
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lipkin » Fri Feb 28, 2014 2:10 pm

Shit, if the attack was by the heir that was traded away to get Digdoug, that would be cruel irony indeed.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby NYbear » Fri Feb 28, 2014 2:18 pm

cheeseaholic wrote:I just hope he doesn't buff up the air defenses so much that he leaves the garrison mostly undefended. Creen and a moderate group of allies could land there and then turn and take the city if he loads up the tower/walls with archers and leaves a modest garrison.


The Tower and Dungeon are part of the Garrison as well, and the courtyard walls are part of the Courtyard. All units in all 3 subzones (Tower, Dungeon, Courtyard) would need to be croaked or captured for the Garrison to fall. Not just 1 zone.

He can easily load up the tower and courtyard walls with tons of archers and leave the courtyard itself empty. If Prince Creen and entourage turn while in the courtyard i'd assume archery on the walls could still be taking shots at them in the courtyard while they assault the tower; and since the walls count as part of courtyard, they would need to clear out those archer to claim that zone - plus they'd still have to take the Tower and Dungeon before winning the Garrison as a whole.

Its not as vulnerable as you seem to imply. (Actually if you plan for it well, it makes for a nice trap)
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lamech » Fri Feb 28, 2014 3:04 pm

I think one of the main advantages of most flying units is well... flying. Plus pretty most fliers seem to be siege free beside dwagons. (And those are arkentool only.) TV has a handful of fire birds, but that seems ineffective when a dirtamancer can put out infernos. (Plus they are probably really slow on the ground.) Otherwise you have Unipegaturs, Orlies, doombats, Gwiffions, archons, goyles, all siege free. They would need to hop the garrison walls and still open themselves to attack.
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