Digdoug - Episode 7

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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lilwik » Sat Mar 01, 2014 8:01 pm

ManaCaster wrote:Wanda would have received plenty of chances to consult with Maya on what in the world had happened by that point. Plus, when she said that Fate would rig things when trying to deal with Olive, Marie, a Predictamancer, outright agreed with her.
I agree that it is entirely possible that Wanda and Olive are quite expert about Predictamancy in many ways. Nothing was stopping them from spending many turns studying any particular discipline of magic, but even if Wanda were the one Croakamancer who knows more about Predictamancy than any other Croakamancer in history, when Wanda disagrees with a Predictamancer about Predictamancy, the Predictamancer is probably right. Since Predictamancers are shown to believe that Predictions are guaranteed, I am forced to conclude that Wanda just never got that particular lesson in all her studies of Predictamancy. I'd bet that she actually did very little studying of Predictamancy. From Book 1, Page 13 we know that Wanda doesn't like studying non-Croakamancy disciplines; she just happens to have a natural talent for them.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby ManaCaster » Sat Mar 01, 2014 8:38 pm

Lilwik wrote:
ManaCaster wrote:Wanda would have received plenty of chances to consult with Maya on what in the world had happened by that point. Plus, when she said that Fate would rig things when trying to deal with Olive, Marie, a Predictamancer, outright agreed with her.
I agree that it is entirely possible that Wanda and Olive are quite expert about Predictamancy in many ways. Nothing was stopping them from spending many turns studying any particular discipline of magic, but even if Wanda were the one Croakamancer who knows more about Predictamancy than any other Croakamancer in history, when Wanda disagrees with a Predictamancer about Predictamancy, the Predictamancer is probably right. Since Predictamancers are shown to believe that Predictions are guaranteed, I am forced to conclude that Wanda just never got that particular lesson in all her studies of Predictamancy. I'd bet that she actually did very little studying of Predictamancy. From Book 1, Page 13 we know that Wanda doesn't like studying non-Croakamancy disciplines; she just happens to have a natural talent for them.

And what it is that Predictamancers say is, Fate is inevitable. They never say that it cannot be delayed, even indefinitely. Quite the contrary, they are wrong about when a prediction will happen all the time. Marie outright admitted as much.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lilwik » Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:12 pm

ManaCaster wrote:Quite the contrary, they are wrong about when a prediction will happen all the time. Marie outright admitted as much.
I'm having a hard time pinning that down. Was that Book 0, or Book 2? Was it about Predicting the fall of Faq? There's a big difference between being wrong and not having an answer. As far as I can tell Marie never claimed to know when Faq would fall. I'm sure that when a Prediction specifies the timing of some event, then the event really happens at the time specified.

We haven't seen many Predictions where the Predictamancer knows when the events will happen, but I expect they often do. For example, the Prediction that Weatherbug was going to be attacked would be completely pointless and obvious if it didn't include approximately when it was going to be attacked. It's a front-line city in a war, so everyone knows that it will be attacked many times with many different outcomes. I expect a Predictamancer to do better than that, especially since Posbrake pulled Digdoug out on the turn before the attack.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Omnimancer » Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:23 pm

Lilwik wrote:
ManaCaster wrote:Quite the contrary, they are wrong about when a prediction will happen all the time. Marie outright admitted as much.
I'm having a hard time pinning that down. Was that Book 0, or Book 2? Was it about Predicting the fall of Faq? There's a big difference between being wrong and not having an answer. As far as I can tell Marie never claimed to know when Faq would fall. I'm sure that when a Prediction specifies the timing of some event, then the event really happens at the time specified.

We haven't seen many Predictions where the Predictamancer knows when the events will happen, but I expect they often do. For example, the Prediction that Weatherbug was going to be attacked would be completely pointless and obvious if it didn't include approximately when it was going to be attacked. It's a front-line city in a war, so everyone knows that it will be attacked many times with many different outcomes. I expect a Predictamancer to do better than that, especially since Posbrake pulled Digdoug out on the turn before the attack.


That particular prediction warned about an "imminent" attack on Weatherbug, so it did specify a general timeframe.

I think that sometimes predictions have time frames, sometimes they don't. What information a prediction includes probably varies a lot depending on circumstance, and the caster predicting it.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Pohsib » Sun Mar 02, 2014 3:56 am

It really stood out to me that Prince Creen is a flying unit, and with all this talk of Predictions being technically correct, my wild guess is that the attack on Homekey will involve a flying Prince Creen trying to attack Posbrake up in his office! With no Homekey heir, the side (and all its units) will poof away, leaving the only units in the remaining Homekey cities to be... the Delkey units that are currently mixed in, who can then claim all of Homekey's cities in one fell swoop! /wildguess
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby ManaCaster » Sun Mar 02, 2014 4:57 am

Lilwik wrote:
ManaCaster wrote:Quite the contrary, they are wrong about when a prediction will happen all the time. Marie outright admitted as much.
I'm having a hard time pinning that down. Was that Book 0, or Book 2? Was it about Predicting the fall of Faq? There's a big difference between being wrong and not having an answer. As far as I can tell Marie never claimed to know when Faq would fall. I'm sure that when a Prediction specifies the timing of some event, then the event really happens at the time specified.

Here, she specifically says that King Banhammer will be croaked by Haffaton:
"Haffaton will be the agent of your destroction, and of the fall of Faq as well. I think soon."

She was completely right about Haffaton causing the fall of Faq. She was also right about Banhammer croaking, but by the time Banhammer croaked, neither Wanda nor Stanley could be said to be members of Haffaton.

Here, she admits to Jillian that Predictamancers can get pieces of Predictions wrong:
“These ah the ways of Prediction.”

“Including being wrong.”

“About specifics?” Marie straightened her shoulders defensively. “Yes, all the time. About the how and the when and the where, suhtainly.”

What Fate wants will always come to pass, but Predictamancers can be wrong when they try to puzzle out details.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lilwik » Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:07 am

ManaCaster wrote:Here, she specifically says that King Banhammer will be croaked by Haffaton.
You mean what she said at the end of Book 0, Episode 33. That certainly proves that Predictamancers can make mistakes. She clearly wasn't doing her Predictamancy properly, and it's not hard to imagine where her confusion is coming from. It seems that she is mixing up the two falls of Faq. Maybe she thinks that Faq will only fall once and doesn't realize that her Predictamancy is actually showing her two separate events. At first that confusion makes her unable to Predict who will attack Faq, but then she hears that Wanda is a Haffaton unit, and coincidentally Wanda is responsible for Faq's second fall and the death of Banhammer. It must have seemed like the pieces were all falling into place and maybe Marie made a little leap that wasn't fully supported by her magic.

Oddly, even though Marie clearly didn't intend this interpretation, there's even a way to interpret her Prediction so it was actually 100% correct. Haffaton may have ceased to exist before Banhammer died, but before Haffaton fell it effectively forced Wanda down Faq's throat. Entirely because of Haffaton's actions, Faq had no choice about accepting Wanda, and Wanda was a poison pill that caused Banhammer's death. The entire second fall of Faq was like Haffaton striking at Faq from beyond the grave using Wanda as a sleeper agent. Maybe that was even part of what caused Marie to give such a poorly worded Prediction, but it's no excuse; she clearly should have put some more time and juice into it.

ManaCaster wrote:Here, she admits to Jillian that Predictamancers can get pieces of Predictions wrong.
That's Book 0, Episode 75. She's being awfully cryptic there. She got caught in her mistake and she starts saying stuff that doesn't make much sense. It conflicts with the usual absolute certainty of Predictamancers as displayed by Delphie and even Marie herself at other times. It certainly can't be true that Predictamancy gets stuff wrong "all the time." We see plenty of examples of Predictamancy not getting stuff wrong, and if Predictamancy were wrong more often than right then no Predictamancer would be worth her upkeep. I can only imagine that Marie was choosing the bizarre tactic of defending herself at the expense of her discipline, similar to if she had said: "Yes, I was wrong, but that's just Predictamancy for you, always getting stuff wrong. It's not that I'm a bad Predictamancer." As if it looks better to be a good caster in a useless discipline. I think maybe she was a bit flustered and not thinking before she spoke, maybe because she's never gotten something wrong before.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Sir Shadow » Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:31 am

Um, guys. They got Wanda FROM Haffaton, so Banhammer's destruction DID come from Haffaton.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby ManaCaster » Sun Mar 02, 2014 3:28 pm

Sir Shadow wrote:Um, guys. They got Wanda FROM Haffaton, so Banhammer's destruction DID come from Haffaton.

You could interpret it that way, but really, you could stretch just about any interpretation, and Wanda was not on the Haffaton side at that point. Marie believed that Haffaton as a side would cause Banhammer's demise. The fact that she would admit to Jillian that Predictamancers can get stuff wrong proves as much.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lilwik » Sun Mar 02, 2014 7:00 pm

ManaCaster wrote:You could interpret it that way, but really, you could stretch just about any interpretation, and Wanda was not on the Haffaton side at that point. Marie believed that Haffaton as a side would cause Banhammer's demise. The fact that she would admit to Jillian that Predictamancers can get stuff wrong proves as much.
It's not really much of a stretch. Haffaton killed Banhammer the moment they forced Faq to accept Wanda's turning, even if no one realized it at the time. Contrary to being a stretch, it was as sure as a slow acting poison. If people had kept on assuming that Marie's Prediction must be right, they could have seen Wanda's betrayal coming. Unfortunately it seems that even Marie decided that her Prediction had been wrong.

The fact that Marie admitted to being wrong doesn't have as clear a meaning as it seems. It conflicts with the confidence we get from Predictamancers, so we can't just accept either the confidence or the admission of fallibility at face value; we need to find a way to reconcile them with each other. The situation in which she admitted fallibility seems to make it clear. A Prediction was right, but in a way that made it look like the Prediction was going to be wrong. With the end of Haffaton anyone could be forgiven for assuming that Haffaton had failed to kill Banhammer. So then Predictamancy reveals the inevitable future, but Predictamancers are only human and capable of making mistake both in how they report the future and in their own guesses about the future. So a Predictamancer's words don't always need to be right, but the Predictamancy that underlies those words is always right. That's why Marie and that other Predictamancer can be totally confident that Parson would get through the portal, because their Predictamancy was showing it to both of them as clearly as if they were seeing it with their eyes, and they know that (unlike eyesight) Predictamancy can't be fooled. The only way Predictamancy can get things wrong is if the Predictamancer misinterprets what Predictamancy shows her, as Marie must have done with the whole Faq/Wanda/Haffaton situation. (Unless Marie actually knew what Wanda was going to do and was deliberately keeping it from everyone for their own good.)

That's the only explanation that seems to fit. It means that Predictamancers can make mistakes, explaining Marie's admission, but it doesn't take the mistakes so far as to necessarily undermine the Predictamancer's confidence. If the magic of Predictamancy itself were capable of getting stuff wrong, like Foolamancy can fool the eyes and ears, then Predictamancers could never be confident. We especially know that Carnymancers can't act like Foolamancers for Predictions.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby Lamech » Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:51 pm

The prediction was amended when Wanda was brought up and I'm pretty sure the amended prediction was based on Wanda being the cause of the fall. It may not have been a true prediction at all.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 7

Postby ManaCaster » Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:12 pm

Anything Wanda says should be discarded because she messed up so badly she will never have a single clue what she's talking about. Olive, Slately, and Parson also have no idea what they're talking about. Carnymancers probably know what they're talking about, but they are guaranteed to be lying. And now, Predictamancers are apparently bad at explaining things too. Seems like we cannot get any reliable information on Fate whatsoever.
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