Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Speculation, discoveries, complaints, accusations, praise, and all other Erfworld discussion.

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby mortissimus » Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:47 am

Whispri wrote:4 quatloo say that Dove's plan will work.


I'll take that. I am hoping for another twist to this story.

And though the bet is somewhat vague, I am sure that we will be able to agree on wheter it did in fact work or not.
mortissimus
 
Posts: 395
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2009 6:04 am

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Fri Mar 14, 2014 2:36 pm

Shai_hulud wrote:Does this seem acceptable to you?


Okie-dokey-Loki
User avatar
drachefly
Print 2 Draw 3 Supporter!
Print 2 Draw 3 Supporter!
 
Posts: 1640
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 11:36 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lipkin » Thu Mar 20, 2014 11:47 am

No one in particular wrote:Here we are again! Another couple of months gone by, another 20q to throw in my pot.

Anyone want in on this? Anyone want to up raise their bet?

Refresher
Bet: Parson is a Date-a-mancer
Yes: (150)
    No one in particular - 150
No: (130)
    Lilwik - 10
    Taikei no Yuurei - 10
    drachefly - 20
    xarx - 20
    mortissimus - 30
    wih - 30
    0beron - 10
--edit--
MadZuri - 10 on No

Still taking these? I want to put as much as possible on no.
User avatar
Lipkin
Print 2 Draw 3 Supporter!
Print 2 Draw 3 Supporter!
 
Posts: 1045
Joined: Wed Mar 20, 2013 5:36 am

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:43 pm

Lipkin wrote:
No one in particular wrote:Here we are again! Another couple of months gone by, another 20q to throw in my pot.

Anyone want in on this? Anyone want to up raise their bet?

Refresher
Bet: Parson is a Date-a-mancer
Yes: (150)
    No one in particular - 150
No: (130)
    Lilwik - 10
    Taikei no Yuurei - 10
    drachefly - 20
    xarx - 20
    mortissimus - 30
    wih - 30
    0beron - 10
--edit--
MadZuri - 10 on No

Still taking these? I want to put as much as possible on no.

I think there is still 10 available for no.

Also, I was looking through my quatloo, and my current amount doesn't seem to match up with everything from the resolved bets. I seem to be 10q behind.
Taikei no Yuurei
Erfabet Supporter!
Erfabet Supporter!
 
Posts: 683
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 7:55 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lipkin » Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:50 pm

Then put me down for that last 10.
User avatar
Lipkin
Print 2 Draw 3 Supporter!
Print 2 Draw 3 Supporter!
 
Posts: 1045
Joined: Wed Mar 20, 2013 5:36 am

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Fri Mar 21, 2014 1:14 pm

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:Also, I was looking through my quatloo, and my current amount doesn't seem to match up with everything from the resolved bets. I seem to be 10q behind.


It appears I didn't get your bet with bladestorm onto the total. That's why I have the complete list right there...
User avatar
drachefly
Print 2 Draw 3 Supporter!
Print 2 Draw 3 Supporter!
 
Posts: 1640
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 11:36 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Godzfirefly » Fri Mar 28, 2014 5:54 am

I'd like to bet 25q that Posbrake will survive until the end of the Digdoug story.
Godzfirefly
 
Posts: 466
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2014 12:51 am

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Fri Mar 28, 2014 5:55 pm

Interesting... I'm too torn on that to bet. I'd actually consider offering the same bet, though likely at a lower amount.
Taikei no Yuurei
Erfabet Supporter!
Erfabet Supporter!
 
Posts: 683
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 7:55 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Sun Mar 30, 2014 1:09 am

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:Interesting... I'm too torn on that to bet. I'd actually consider offering the same bet, though likely at a lower amount.

I will take both at 80% confidence. Posbrake has a doom counter.
bladestorm
 
Posts: 683
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 10:11 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Sun Mar 30, 2014 11:33 am

They didn't phrase it as a confidence, so I can't put that up unless they give a confidence too.
User avatar
drachefly
Print 2 Draw 3 Supporter!
Print 2 Draw 3 Supporter!
 
Posts: 1640
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 11:36 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Godzfirefly » Sun Mar 30, 2014 12:43 pm

bladestorm wrote:
Taikei no Yuurei wrote:Interesting... I'm too torn on that to bet. I'd actually consider offering the same bet, though likely at a lower amount.

I will take both at 80% confidence. Posbrake has a doom counter.


Okay, if you require a confidence, I'll place at 85%.
Godzfirefly
 
Posts: 466
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2014 12:51 am

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Sun Mar 30, 2014 11:32 pm

Godzfirefly wrote:
bladestorm wrote:
Taikei no Yuurei wrote:Interesting... I'm too torn on that to bet. I'd actually consider offering the same bet, though likely at a lower amount.

I will take both at 80% confidence. Posbrake has a doom counter.


Okay, if you require a confidence, I'll place at 85%.

Cool. then I guess I will take the other as a straight bet, once the bet amount has been determined.
bladestorm
 
Posts: 683
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 10:11 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Mon Mar 31, 2014 7:55 am

I'll do 20q at 60% confidence.

So bet of 6.4q for me, and 9.6q for bladestorm.
Taikei no Yuurei
Erfabet Supporter!
Erfabet Supporter!
 
Posts: 683
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 7:55 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Wed Apr 02, 2014 6:45 pm

So, I've been chatting in that one thread about the book 3 kickstarter a bit, and figured I'd come over here and put my money where my mouth is. I bet 50q strait up (no confidence stuff) that it'll hit the ~200% funding goal needed to get book 3 in full comic format.
Taikei no Yuurei
Erfabet Supporter!
Erfabet Supporter!
 
Posts: 683
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 7:55 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Godzfirefly » Thu Apr 03, 2014 3:40 am

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:So, I've been chatting in that one thread about the book 3 kickstarter a bit, and figured I'd come over here and put my money where my mouth is. I bet 50q strait up (no confidence stuff) that it'll hit the ~200% funding goal needed to get book 3 in full comic format.

Shouldn't bet on something you can directly affect the outcome of. ;-)
Godzfirefly
 
Posts: 466
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2014 12:51 am

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Thu Apr 03, 2014 6:20 am

Godzfirefly wrote:
Taikei no Yuurei wrote:So, I've been chatting in that one thread about the book 3 kickstarter a bit, and figured I'd come over here and put my money where my mouth is. I bet 50q strait up (no confidence stuff) that it'll hit the ~200% funding goal needed to get book 3 in full comic format.

Shouldn't bet on something you can directly affect the outcome of. ;-)

As I will plunk down thousands of dollars to secure 50 quatloo without hesitation. Thus it is in your interest to bet against me to ensure that I'll donate enough that we make it ;)
Taikei no Yuurei
Erfabet Supporter!
Erfabet Supporter!
 
Posts: 683
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 7:55 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Thu Apr 03, 2014 8:56 pm

Godzfirefly wrote:I'd like to bet 25q that Posbrake will survive until the end of the Digdoug story.

etc.

Resulting bets:

Godzfirefly bet 17.1q to Bladestorm's 15.4q that Posbrake survives to the end of Digdoug... I'd rather avoid tenths, so you want it to come out more evenly, we can make that 11:10 or 21:19. Between, we're stuck with one or the other being around a half.
Taikei no Yuurei bet 6q to Bladestorm's 9q of the same proposition. Or 9:12, if you want to beef it up a bit.
User avatar
drachefly
Print 2 Draw 3 Supporter!
Print 2 Draw 3 Supporter!
 
Posts: 1640
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 11:36 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Thu Apr 03, 2014 10:38 pm

I'm good with 6:9 It's a low confidence bet after all.
Taikei no Yuurei
Erfabet Supporter!
Erfabet Supporter!
 
Posts: 683
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 7:55 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Godzfirefly » Thu Apr 03, 2014 10:50 pm

Yeah...yet another reason to dislike confidence betting...

I don't care if the bet is 17:15 or 21:19. I do not want 11:10 because I feel like it defeats the purpose of having requested a 25q bet to begin with.

I am not going to accept any confidence-based bets anymore. -_-
Godzfirefly
 
Posts: 466
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2014 12:51 am

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Fri Apr 04, 2014 7:53 am

Godzfirefly wrote:Yeah...yet another reason to dislike confidence betting...

I don't care if the bet is 17:15 or 21:19. I do not want 11:10 because I feel like it defeats the purpose of having requested a 25q bet to begin with.

I am not going to accept any confidence-based bets anymore. -_-

Yeah, the thing with confidence based bets is you have to bet about 2-3 times as much as you actually want to bet because of the way the math works out. It would be better if the formula would be tweaked so that you always bet your initial amount.
Taikei no Yuurei
Erfabet Supporter!
Erfabet Supporter!
 
Posts: 683
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 7:55 pm

PreviousNext

Return to Everything Else Erfworld

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests