Book 2 – Page 36

[Lamech]

Here's a nasty proposition. Wanda and crew approach the tower to parley, Slately or Tremennis do what Wanda did and fire off the whole of the whole tower defense system in one shot, incinerating all of them.
Why (apart from plot armour) not?

a) It wouldn't be noble.
b) They will almost certainly be the ones initiating the parley, what better way to make sure no one trusts them again ever.
c) They probably don't have the fire power to blast everything out of the sky; notice how numerous units survived Wanda unloading everything. Well a handful orlies and a warlord. But Wanda's airforce is composed of dwagons, a lot of stuff will survive. And Wanda will almost certainly shield the first volley away, so she will survive until she runs out of juice.

Or a possibility that an Arkentool can provide some protection from incapacitation? (I remember fallen Wanda asking Ansom to touch her with the pliers).

It might provide protection from croaking. As FF would say "auto-decrypt". But that is just speculation. (Would be kind of funny if the incapacitated Wanda was croaked only to come back more powerful.)

Also has Wanda tried doing anything with the arkenpliers other than decryption? Like a croakamancy death spell?

[Ansan Gotti]

However, Wanda has a 33% chance of surviving a fall with only an injury.

I have noticed that it is popular to assume that the three options are equally distributed, but as far as I can remember all that has been said is that one of three things happen.

I think Parson said they were roughly equally distributed, although I think he also said height of the fall did seem to have some bearing.

Keep in mind that even if Wanda has only a 33% chance of coming out active, they could also send Jack down right after her with a healing scroll, which skews the odds of an active Wanda slightly higher (only slightly because JACK might then be incapacitated or killed by the fall).

[gazes_also]

Here's a nasty proposition. Wanda and crew approach the tower to parley, Slately or Tremennis do what Wanda did and fire off the whole of the whole tower defense system in one shot, incinerating all of them.
Why (apart from plot armour) not?

a) It wouldn't be noble.
b) They will almost certainly be the ones initiating the parley, what better way to make sure no one trusts them again ever.
c) They probably don't have the fire power to blast everything out of the sky; notice how numerous units survived Wanda unloading everything. Well a handful orlies and a warlord. But Wanda's airforce is composed of dwagons, a lot of stuff will survive. And Wanda will almost certainly shield the first volley away, so she will survive until she runs out of juice.

a) Slately wouldn't but Tramennis understands realpolitik enough to view it as expedient
b) If they eliminate the single biggest threat to every other side, you think anyone is going to care how they do it? Anyway, as has been discussed, breaking the rules of parley is hardly novel or unforgivable.
c) They would just have to blast the leadership group which would be closest to the tower. No Wanda, no Ossomer, game over.

It might provide protection from croaking. As FF would say "auto-decrypt". But that is just speculation. (Would be kind of funny if the incapacitated Wanda was croaked only to come back more powerful.)

Also has Wanda tried doing anything with the arkenpliers other than decryption? Like a croakamancy death spell?

The possibilities of what might happen if Wanda croaks while holding the pliers actually put a whole 'nother spin on what might happen here.

[Ansan Gotti]

Parson is already planning to jump them at the parley, so it's a simple matter to veil or baffle or cloak or whatever-Foolamancy-term-might-be-appropriate-here the GK parley folks to look like Wanda when in fact it's just some schmoe.

[Pointyleaf]

I would put her odds of not being croaked by JS troops if she survived a fall at in the <10% range - the most hated and feared opponent hits the ground and they don't swarm her and rip her to shreds - very unlikely.
Jack's plan of block, decrypt, block probably has better than 75% chance of keeping Wanda alive and aloft, so really why take that chance.

Well, I was operating under the assumption that Wanda would be attempting a landing, not just falling randomly. If she's landing, then it makes no sense to dump her in the middle of a bunch of living Jetstone troops. Amongst croaked or uncapacitated JS troops or amongst GK troops would be fine. Remember the gigantic bonuses that she gives to decrypted in her stack, plus artifact bonus, plus a leadership bonus once she restacks with a leader. It'd not be so easy for the JS troops to kill her.

But you're right that I expect another strategy, something without Wanda falling and a ~1/3 chance of her survival.

[Chris Goodwin]

Well, I was operating under the assumption that Wanda would be attempting a landing, not just falling randomly. If she's landing, then it makes no sense to dump her in the middle of a bunch of living Jetstone troops. Amongst croaked or uncapacitated JS troops or amongst GK troops would be fine. Remember the gigantic bonuses that she gives to decrypted in her stack, plus artifact bonus, plus a leadership bonus once she restacks with a leader. It'd not be so easy for the JS troops to kill her.

But you're right that I expect another strategy, something without Wanda falling and a ~1/3 chance of her survival.

She can't land... that's kind of the point. The airspace and ground are different zones (Parson's Klog 002). And note that it's not a 1/3 chance of survival, but one of three things can happen. The only way GK troops can get into the ground is to fall there.

[DevilDan]

On the other hand: one third of the time Wanda is barely hurt. Another third, Wanda is incapacitated. But a third of that time, Jack would survive his own jump relatively unscathed and can use a healing scroll on her? That's a 44% chance of a live Wanda on the ground--at the least, given that apparently shorter distances reduce the chance of death or incapacitation.

[gazes_also]

On the other hand: one third of the time Wanda is barely hurt. Another third, Wanda is incapacitated. But a third of that time, Jack would survive his own jump relatively unscathed and can use a healing scroll on her? That's a 44% chance of a live Wanda on the ground--at the least, given that apparently shorter distances reduce the chance of death or incapacitation.

You are also assuming a snowball effect of decryption, which assumes more live troops get croaked than decrypted get dusted. This is very unlikely as we saw JS ground troops dispatch the GK column - composed of mainly decrypted and lacking in leadership, which is the likely state of any group around a grounded Wanda - with minimal casualties. At a 1:1 croak / dust rate they just hold their own, at which point JS stops the air attack, holds them with a perimeter, and diverts its archers on to the grounded group. Makes Custer's Last Stand look like a picnic.

Going to ground still looks dumb to me.

[valce]

Where does it say that there is a 33% chance of getting killed? As far as I can see, there are three _possibilities_ for a falling unit, but that doesn't mean each possibility has the same probability.

[gazes_also]

I would put her odds of not being croaked by JS troops if she survived a fall at in the <10% range - the most hated and feared opponent hits the ground and they don't swarm her and rip her to shreds - very unlikely.
Jack's plan of block, decrypt, block probably has better than 75% chance of keeping Wanda alive and aloft, so really why take that chance.

Well, I was operating under the assumption that Wanda would be attempting a landing, not just falling randomly. If she's landing, then it makes no sense to dump her in the middle of a bunch of living Jetstone troops. Amongst croaked or uncapacitated JS troops or amongst GK troops would be fine. Remember the gigantic bonuses that she gives to decrypted in her stack, plus artifact bonus, plus a leadership bonus once she restacks with a leader. It'd not be so easy for the JS troops to kill her.

But you're right that I expect another strategy, something without Wanda falling and a ~1/3 chance of her survival.

1) Can't land, has to fall or crash, due to the intention-based physics of zone barriers.
2) So she lands ideally in a group of friendlies, she's on the ground. her mobility is much more limited than in the air. If the JS leadership see her land, don't you think they will divert the closest archery 'fire' on to her location and then send a party of considerable strength on a seek and destroy sortie?

[DevilDan]

On the other hand: one third of the time Wanda is barely hurt. Another third, Wanda is incapacitated. But a third of that time, Jack would survive his own jump relatively unscathed and can use a healing scroll on her? That's a 44% chance of a live Wanda on the ground--at the least, given that apparently shorter distances reduce the chance of death or incapacitation.

You are also assuming a snowball effect of decryption, which assumes more live troops get croaked than decrypted get dusted. This is very unlikely as we saw JS ground troops dispatch the GK column - composed of mainly decrypted and lacking in leadership, which is the likely state of any group around a grounded Wanda - with minimal casualties. At a 1:1 croak / dust rate they just hold their own, at which point JS stops the air attack, holds them with a perimeter, and diverts its archers on to the grounded group. Makes Custer's Last Stand look like a picnic.

Going to ground still looks dumb to me.

Maybe not more live decrypted than decrypted dusted, but maybe just enough. After all, those troops are just big fat targets otherwise.

By the time GK's column was taken down, they'd lost the chief warlord bonus (which JS retained) and their strength had been halved thanks to Haggar's "selfless" attack.

Wanda has leadership, and a bonus to decrypted too, of course. The dwagons could stay in the air, providing cover for arrows. And when they do fall, Wanda can decrypt.

All that said, I don't particularly like that plan. It lacks flair, panache. If we could think of it, then it's probably not crazy enough. Plus, I want to be surprised.

[Pointyleaf]

1) Can't land, has to fall or crash, due to the intention-based physics of zone barriers.

"Land" = falling intentionally, versus falling because her mount is shot out from under her. Since it's off-turn, yes, she has a penalty of injury/death/incapacitation. We're talking about the same thing.

[Ansan Gotti]

I am envisioning a mass crash-landing of all 70+ dwagons, with Wanda and Jack going last, and any surviving dwagons having orders to croak the incapacitated dwagons. In addition to all of the dead dwagons to decrypt, you have the crushed bodies underneath them.

I think that would result in a MUCH higher than 10% chance for Wanda to fight it out. In fact, I think it will be a reversal of fortune of enormous proportions.

[splintermute]

On the other hand: one third of the time Wanda is barely hurt. Another third, Wanda is incapacitated. But a third of that time, Jack would survive his own jump relatively unscathed and can use a healing scroll on her? That's a 44% chance of a live Wanda on the ground--at the least, given that apparently shorter distances reduce the chance of death or incapacitation.

You are also assuming a snowball effect of decryption, which assumes more live troops get croaked than decrypted get dusted. This is very unlikely as we saw JS ground troops dispatch the GK column - composed of mainly decrypted and lacking in leadership, which is the likely state of any group around a grounded Wanda - with minimal casualties. At a 1:1 croak / dust rate they just hold their own, at which point JS stops the air attack, holds them with a perimeter, and diverts its archers on to the grounded group. Makes Custer's Last Stand look like a picnic.

Going to ground still looks dumb to me.

The GK column was missing the two biggest bonuses of all - Wanda's bonus to decrypted and the artifact bonus. In this situation, any unit that Wanda raises will be considerably more powerful as a decrypted than it was when it was alive (except, maybe, the casters - we don't know yet).

[gazes_also]

I am envisioning a mass crash-landing of all 70+ dwagons, with Wanda and Jack going last, and any surviving dwagons having orders to croak the incapacitated dwagons. In addition to all of the dead dwagons to decrypt, you have the crushed bodies underneath them.

I think that would result in a MUCH higher than 10% chance for Wanda to fight it out. In fact, I think it will be a reversal of fortune of enormous proportions.

So the archers go from shooting up, trying to hit airborne targets, where Wanda can move dwagons around vertically to maintain a scene, to shooting down into the courtyard where it is much harder to hide.

A couple of contradictory points here: the dwagons can't dive through the barrier, they have to drop through, how do you convince them to do that without the Archenhammer to control them? If you have to croak them the drop them and if dwagons are so difficult to croak, how does a single rider croak his mount?

I stand by my conviction that it's dumb and will get them croaked faster than staying in the air.

[DevilDan]

So the archers go from shooting up, trying to hit airborne targets, where Wanda can move dwagons around vertically to maintain a scene, to shooting down into the courtyard where it is much harder to hide.

Again, the dwagons may be more useful as arrow blockers.

What about dropping onto the tower rather than onto the courtyard, though? (Still keeping the dwagons as blockers.) They can still aim to croak Slately.

A couple of contradictory points here: the dwagons can't dive through the barrier, they have to drop through, how do you convince them to do that without the Archenhammer to control them? If you have to croak them the drop them and if dwagons are so difficult to croak, how does a single rider croak his mount?

They, like any other unit on Erf, follow orders. Virtually any orders.

I stand by my conviction that it's dumb and will get them croaked faster than staying in the air.

Possibly faster. But staying in the air is certain death. So if I were in their shoes and couldn't think of a better plan, I'd take a slim chance, even if I might die faster, and no chance. It's a real chance to put up a fight. From a strict Duty perspective, even if you were convinced of your doom you'd try it just to go down fighting and weakening your side's enemy. No one likes "suicide" missions. That didn't stop Ford.

I other words: it's only dumb if someone comes up with something smarter.

[Chris Goodwin]

I am envisioning a mass crash-landing of all 70+ dwagons, with Wanda and Jack going last, and any surviving dwagons having orders to croak the incapacitated dwagons. In addition to all of the dead dwagons to decrypt, you have the crushed bodies underneath them.

I think that would result in a MUCH higher than 10% chance for Wanda to fight it out. In fact, I think it will be a reversal of fortune of enormous proportions.

So the archers go from shooting up, trying to hit airborne targets, where Wanda can move dwagons around vertically to maintain a scene, to shooting down into the courtyard where it is much harder to hide.

There really isn't a lot Wanda can do. If she moves the dwagons higher the archers and tower defenses will just shoot higher. I'm fairly certain there hasn't yet been mentioned combat penalties for altitude, so I'm reasonably certain they don't exist.

A couple of contradictory points here: the dwagons can't dive through the barrier, they have to drop through, how do you convince them to do that without the Archenhammer to control them? If you have to croak them the drop them and if dwagons are so difficult to croak, how does a single rider croak his mount?

He doesn't. He waits for the very large number of archers and tower defenses to do it for him, and they're only too happy to oblige.

The plan relies on all of the dwagons getting croaked, and Wanda not only surviving the barrage but surviving the fall on the back of a croaked dwagon.

I stand by my conviction that it's dumb and will get them croaked faster than staying in the air.

They really won't have much of a choice. They can't land. Period. The only way they can reach ground is croaked. And that is the way they will reach the ground, because they will be croaked. GK is off-turn, remember. It's Jetstone's turn. Everyone is waiting on Jetstone to do what they're going to do, which is slaughter the GK flyers.

[Ansan Gotti]

So the archers go from shooting up, trying to hit airborne targets, where Wanda can move dwagons around vertically to maintain a scene, to shooting down into the courtyard where it is much harder to hide.

A couple of contradictory points here: the dwagons can't dive through the barrier, they have to drop through, how do you convince them to do that without the Archenhammer to control them? If you have to croak them the drop them and if dwagons are so difficult to croak, how does a single rider croak his mount?

I stand by my conviction that it's dumb and will get them croaked faster than staying in the air.

No, the archers aren't shooting at all. It's a parley, remember? And who said anything about the courtyard? The dwagons can either be over the tower or the walls, we know from a previous post, and so they would all be dive-bombing the tower.

The dwagons can just be ordered by the Chief Warlord or even a Warlord on the scene. You don't need the arkenhammer to order them, just tame them. So they're all ordered to crash land and you have dead dwagons, incapacitated dwagons (who ought to be very easy to croak since they are essentially at 0 hit points or whatever), and injured dwagons who are croaking the incapacitated dwagons and as many enemies as they can, who are then by necessity also trying to croak the injured dwagons. Death, death, and more death.

Then Wanda crash lands as gently as possible, followed immediately by Jack who is carrying a healing scroll (assuming there's one left), and she decrypts everything. And all of them have her bonus and the artifact bonus. Mass slaughter ensues.

I basically don't understand your objections at all. There is no question in my mind that the plan I just sketched over a few minutes (and I'm sure Parson/Rob have something even better in mind) is far, far superior to remaining as sitting ducks in the target zone.

[Pointyleaf]

Right. From the little we know now, they have three options:

1) Use dragons as meat shields from arrows, decrypt them as they fall, then use them as meat shields again. Hope Jetstone runs out of arrows before GK runs out of meat shields.
2) Use dragons as meat shields from arrows, let them fall when they die (either on the heads of JS troops or off in a corner of the city where they'll have more time to restack before JS troops arrive). Get Wanda to them, decrypt, and start a ground battle.
3) What Ansan said - start by crashlanding the dragons. Get Wanda to them, decrypt, and start a ground battle.

I don't see any advantage of #3 over #2. At least in #2 Jetstone is using up arrows.

On the off-chance that Wanda can decrypt grounded units from the air, she wouldn't need to personally crashland in #2. However, this is pretty weak - there's little chance she can cast across hexes (for attacking units, the air-ground barrier is a hex barrier). And on top of that, the decrypted units wouldn't get her stack or hex decryption bonus. Extra weak.

#4?? Crashland dragons on top of Slately's head. Om nom nom, Slately becomes dragon dinner. It'd be checkmate, but the chance that Slately will expose himself (*snrrk*) to GK is small.

[gazes_also]

So the archers go from shooting up, trying to hit airborne targets, where Wanda can move dwagons around vertically to maintain a scene, to shooting down into the courtyard where it is much harder to hide.

A couple of contradictory points here: the dwagons can't dive through the barrier, they have to drop through, how do you convince them to do that without the Archenhammer to control them? If you have to croak them the drop them and if dwagons are so difficult to croak, how does a single rider croak his mount?

I stand by my conviction that it's dumb and will get them croaked faster than staying in the air.

No, the archers aren't shooting at all. It's a parley, remember? And who said anything about the courtyard? The dwagons can either be over the tower or the walls, we know from a previous post, and so they would all be dive-bombing the tower.

The dwagons can just be ordered by the Chief Warlord or even a Warlord on the scene. You don't need the arkenhammer to order them, just tame them. So they're all ordered to crash land and you have dead dwagons, incapacitated dwagons (who ought to be very easy to croak since they are essentially at 0 hit points or whatever), and injured dwagons who are croaking the incapacitated dwagons and as many enemies as they can, who are then by necessity also trying to croak the injured dwagons. Death, death, and more death.

Then Wanda crash lands as gently as possible, followed immediately by Jack who is carrying a healing scroll (assuming there's one left), and she decrypts everything. And all of them have her bonus and the artifact bonus. Mass slaughter ensues.

I basically don't understand your objections at all. There is no question in my mind that the plan I just sketched over a few minutes (and I'm sure Parson/Rob have something even better in mind) is far, far superior to remaining as sitting ducks in the target zone.

I am refering to when the fighting starts, which clearly was has to happen for GK to do anything because if they could initiate the action you describe they would have done it by now.
It is a plan which assumes the JS forces will stand around like dummies while all this happens, or at best behave like idiots. You will put GK forces on the ground in the city - they can't attack the tower until they control all the other zones - which makes them an easier target to the archers who will be on the walls not on the ground. Do not mistake a plan that increases the chances of "winning" the battle for one which increases the chances of surviving. This is a high risk-reward strategy for sure, but the risk of losing means losing the war, not just the battle.