Book 2 – Text Updates 030

[GobwinPie]

so anyone notice the use of the name lord Ace hardware, here? as in the hardware store? the place you go to buy TOOLS? like as in, a pair of pliers? or a hammer? perhaps even an antenna dish? and here we have an unusual caster with unusual ideas on how to use his creativity. perhaps a possible arkentool in the making?

(Checks previous pages...) Nope. Nobody.

[zilfallon]

so anyone notice the use of the name lord Ace hardware, here? as in the hardware store? the place you go to buy TOOLS? like as in, a pair of pliers? or a hammer? perhaps even an antenna dish? and here we have an unusual caster with unusual ideas on how to use his creativity. perhaps a possible arkentool in the making?

Very unlikely, even impossible. Trimancers are powerful, but they can't be as powerful as the titans, just no way.
Though the link you mentioned could be used to create a replica of a tool? Maybe a replica pliers with the ability to interfere with decrypted and debuff them for a short while? Or a replica dish which can protect a limited number of thinkagrams each turn from the tapping ability of real Arkendish?

[BLANDCorporatio]

I know Wanda is on the "cannot be killed list," but quite frankly I think the comic would improve without her.

There's a reason she's merely number 5 on my Immortality Watch, and it's not just me being contrarian. Honest.

I Disagree on #3 BLAND, while Jillian is not a DISPOSABLE character it seems more and more like she's going to be put up against the wall and shot since charlie has abandoned her and her other major backer is probably going to do so by the end of this turn, unless you think that Jill Vs GK Vs The World is where this story is going...

Her fortunes may be declining, yes. However, there's a big keg-o-drama left in her (or more) and as such on my list she's number 3.

Bland, I didn't know Jack and Sizemore's stocks were so low!

Your pain is mine as well. None of these characters made it to my top 5 and, much as like each and every one of them, they don't even make the top 10!

The thing is Jack, Sizemore (and Maggie) would neatly fit, if the author so choses, into a sacrificial lion type. The good friend that is lost, so that the protagonist gets pissed and starts kicking butt for reals this time. Jack's in a warzone, Maggie is right near Parson (where say, a backlash from that suggestion would be most visible and impacting upon Lord Hamster). Sizemore is ... somewhere, which makes him the safest of the three.

If you want me to drudge up a quick estimate, let's see ... I'd rank Stanley, Ansom, Vanna, Lobot-guy, the Don AND Caesar (but not Bunny, I'm sure there's a freezer somewhere with her name on it) to be more Immortal than Jack/Maggie/Sizemore.

[DevilDan]

Bland, are your estimates adjusted based on your estimation of how much more use the writer may want to get out of a character? And what's the horizon on the killings, the end of this book?

[effataigus]

Question... are we counting dying and subsequently being decrypted against them for the purposes of "immortality?"

If not, then we really don't have much death to calibrate with... Misty, Bogroll, Queen Bea, Bea's Daughter, some archons, Wrigley, Ford, Overpants, Dora, Webinar, Sammy (if his body isn't found and decrypted).

As far as characters that matter to the readers, it's pretty much just Misty and Bogroll. Ok... I weirdly relished seeing Dora and Webinar bite it.

With this low mortality rate in mind I'd be less worried about who isn't likely to die and more worried about who is likely to die. Parson declared his own gambit to be "messy," so it'd be silly if he puts this plan into action and nobody dies. I defintely wouldn't be surprised if it ended up just being unimportant people.

All of this is to ask who's at the bottom on the immortality watch list?

... besides Sylvia and Ossomer.

I think there's a strong case for Slately.

[robak]

At least one of the two casters from this update.

[zilfallon]

It is strange to see a discussion about "Who will the author spare?" This just proves that this update gave us kinda nothing to speculate and rage upon

[Nihila]

It is strange to see a discussion about "Who will the author spare?" This just proves that this update gave us kinda nothing to speculate and rage upon

Yes, and in ancient, established Erforum traditional practices, we must accuse each other of unreasonable things from the semi-anonymity of the Internet, causing this thread to run for at least 15 pages!

[DevilDan]

It is strange to see a discussion about "Who will the author spare?" This just proves that this update gave us kinda nothing to speculate and rage upon

I've made the point that that's been the case for the last few updates: not a lot of action and very little exposition or new information. If Rob's laying the groundwork for a great reveal hanging on details he's providing now, he's being masterfully subtle considering how much attention each update receives.

[BLANDCorporatio]

Question... are we counting dying and subsequently being decrypted against them for the purposes of "immortality?"

Decryption is arguably death. Now I'm not a believer in that stance, but it's quite widespread and reasonable. So if someone gets croaked and decrypted, by my count they're dead. And in need of tabulating a new spot on the Watch.

The system has a few kinks.

Bland, are your estimates adjusted based on your estimation of how much more use the writer may want to get out of a character? And what's the horizon on the killings, the end of this book?

To answer, use from a character- yes (mostly) and horizon of death- good question. To be honest, my horizon was until curtains are called on Erfworld for good.

Which is a bit paradoxical because I fully expect Charlie to croak as one of the last things to happen. But OTOH I'm more confident about Charlie reaching that point than I am about any other character.

If an "until this is over" horizon is too long, then let's make it middle of book 3.

[zilfallon]

What about Janis? She isn't involved in any wars (based on what we've seen about her) and she thinks Lord Hamster is emissary of eternal peace to Erfworld. I think it is pretty unlikely for her to be croaked.

[BLANDCorporatio]

What about Janis? She isn't involved in any wars (based on what we've seen about her) and she thinks Lord Hamster is emissary of eternal peace to Erfworld. I think it is pretty unlikely for her to be croaked.

Agreed. She might, just might, be somewhere in the 10-6 range. She's not that important to make it to top 5 I think; she could die, and meh. If one of my top 5 dies, it's for a really big reason.

[effataigus]

Yay a fourm mini-game! I'll bite. I've put people into groups based upon how likely I think they are to die (at least once) by the middle of book 3. I've also listed their names within that group from least to most likely to die. This is pure (almost) baseless speculation so I am 100% sure of my answers and will fight to the forum-death to defend them...

Group 1: Highly unlikely to die by then...
Parson... I can't imagine the story continuing without him in a meaningful way.
Charlie... What BLAND said.
Jillian... What BLAND said.
Janis... What Zilfallon said AND she's almost unique in that she's thinking about the endgame.

Group 2: Unlikely to die. Either too important to the plot or almost entirely out of harms way. Still at risk of being made an example of (a la Misty).
Parson's RL friends... Haven't been reintroduced yet... one might eventually be killed off to add gravity to the events of this world.
Stanley... Currently out of harms way and highly important to the mechanics of the story.
Sizemore... Would be weird to kill a character without concentrating on what he's up to first... also, needs to see that Parson can bring "peace" as well as death before he dies.
Wanda... In harms way, but protected by fan love, plot armor, and fate magic.
Maggie... In no immediate danger except gobwin revolt, Charlie shenanigans, and Stanley's ire... I'm wagering she's too valuable to Stanley for him to disband her even if he finds out.
Tramennis... Will not die and stay dead... currently in harms way, but would lose a lot of plot dynamism if he were decrypted. Seems more likely that he'd escape to the old capital.
Vinnie... See Sizemore... also presumed out of harms way... Jillian is fickle though, and he might confront her/Ansom.
Ansom... Not currently a threat to anyone... Jillian is fickle though. Possibly opposed by Vinnie... might escape and attack someone in group 1.
Dickie (of Hagar)... Currently WAY off radar... might fall to someone between books or to Charlie as part of an opening archon salvo against the world.
Franklin... Would probably survive a TV civil war... IF one even did happen.

Group 3: Likely to be put in a situation where death is possible, or already in a dangerous situation but with good odds of survival.
Vanna... A juiceless caster that's about to go into battles... probably will be kept in reserve, but killing her would eliminate the only known turnamancer and possibly stifle the "KW every other round" critics. Also, as a blonde who is hotter than Jillian, I'm surprised she's lived this long.
Caesar... Don's done some dumb stuff lately, and, if Bunny turns if/when Ceasar does, I could see his coalition winning... definitely a craps-shoot though. I'm working under the assumption that Don cannot disband one of his units if that unit has formally "turned."
Bunny... See above.
Don... Despite his recent blunders he seems to have a good feel for Ceasar and could very easily survive a civil war.
Jack... Most readers would prefer him alive, but I don't fancy his chances as long as a decryption safety net is there... decryption could also possibly refill his juice and give the authors a valuable and dynamic plot instrument for the battle to come.

Group 4: Currently in a situation where I think they have at least even odds of dying at least once.
Ossomer... In all kinds of danger, but the fact that we're seeing this simpleton try to figure the world out suggests that he might be a useful perspective from which to view future events. No other reason he might live though.
Sylvia... Moderate fan-love-armor might hold out against the incredibly lethal situation she is in.
Slately... No reason this guy needs to live... he's outlived his philosophy and his usefulness to the plot. He's also unlikable and his death would make this battle seem like it accomplished something.
Slately's casters (Dittomancer, Ace, Cubbins, Healomancer)... no reason they need to survive and they also have a very dangerous decryption safety net.

I don't think I've ever successfully predicted what Erfworld will do with itself though!

[joosy]

Bland, are your estimates adjusted based on your estimation of how much more use the writer may want to get out of a character? And what's the horizon on the killings, the end of this book?

My prediction? TPK. Rocks fall, everyone dies. Except for Lady Sylvia. Just to spite me.

[BLANDCorporatio]

My prediction? TPK. Rocks fall, everyone dies. Except for Lady Sylvia. Just to spite me.

But no. What's gonna happen is a tiny pebble from the sky will claim the battle's one casualty, Lady Sylvia Lazarus. And everyone on the scene will be like "wow, what were the odds?".

Alternatively, TPK, everyone dies EXCEPT Lady Sylvia ... only it turns out that this was her dying dream from after the pebble incident.

[Lord Kasavin]

I know Wanda is on the "cannot be killed list," but quite frankly I think the comic would improve without her.

There's a reason she's merely number 5 on my Immortality Watch, and it's not just me being contrarian. Honest.

Oh, its more than just you. Everyone seems to think Wanda is a central character and cannot be replaced. However, this a webcomic, not a daytime TV show where the cast is hired for the season and the viewers know no one will bite it because there goes the show. Erfworld really only has one central character, Parson. Other than him, there are a ton of other characters floating about in an alien world who somehow deal with the same issues in our world, only Parson now gets to deal with on a global scale instead of just complaining about life behind a Kinko's counter.

Wanda (and Lady Lazarus) seem to have given up on life and living and are just there to push whatever boundaries are still in place on their behavior. Hence Wanda casually asking permission to croak a very old acquaintance because Healamancy scrolls are probably not renewable. Such nihilism might be appropriate in Denmark, but I find those fighting for ideals to be far more sympathetic and interesting (in how to apply lofty ideals to an imperfect world). That, and as low as Wanda's gotten, there is not much further for her to sink.

[DevilDan]

Poor. poor Stanley. No one, virtually, is giving odds on his survival.

Half of me believes that no toolbearer will die till the very end.

[Chit Rule Railroad]

What about Janis? She isn't involved in any wars (based on what we've seen about her) and she thinks Lord Hamster is emissary of eternal peace to Erfworld. I think it is pretty unlikely for her to be croaked.

On the other hand, she's not had a lot of humanization. I could imagine the fourth Arkentool and/or an Eastern/Southern/Northern Conflict being introduced into the story by Sizemore going to the Magic Kingdom and learning of her noble death from the vulcan guy. I don't think she's unique in seeking peace - there seems to be a conspiracy.


On Wanda: I think the text update from Wanda's point of view that revealed that she doesn't have a grand plan increased the probability of her croaking. Probably there's a specific prediction that's going to come true (all 4 Arkentools in the same hex?) and then she might croak without ever learning the significance of the event. That would be a fitting end because she's always been oddly incurious.

Slately would be more interesting if he were decrypted. He could replace Ossomer's unfortunately endangered POV, except that he may not have the combat/leadership stats sufficient to get the time of day from other GK warlords. Or maybe they'll tease him like Bogroll.

When Jillian's soap opera has been played out, I could see her ending up decrypted, with Wanda suddenly losing interest in her at that point. For Wanda, that could be a moment like Xykon realizing he can no longer taste coffee - except that her auto-decryption and conversion into a self-worshipping lich would follow the event.

Parson - not that it's likely, but he could spend some time under Wanda's spell just before she croaks. That could lead to him having a (misguided?) mission instead of his current aimlessness (which I'm beginning to find tiresome). He's already been wrestling with natural thinkamancy and thinkamancer thinkamancy, so it might be interesting to see him wrestle with Wanda's unnatural thinkamancy.

Some predictions on who will never be decrypted, not even shortly before Wanda's death:
Sizemore (is in the process of building a sense of purpose),
Charlie (either has a mission or will struggle with defining one),
Stanley (already has his own variation of Toolism),
Janis (unless Sizemore is able to take over her role in the conspiracy - that would probably require a longer story, though).

[Welf von Ehrwald]

Poor. poor Stanley. No one, virtually, is giving odds on his survival.

Half of me believes that no toolbearer will die till the very end.

I think he is up in the immortality list, right under Parson. If he croaks, the war of the tools is over and GK disbands. And this war is the narrative of erfworld. The spell that Parson binds will dissolve, robbing him of the excuse to play war. Wanda will be proven false in her believe that the tools will be united, and lose her drive. And since she is a GK unit, she will disband if she's in the field, freeze in time in a barbarian city, or be cut off from her decrypted in the Magic Kingdom. And that be the end of the story.

[Magothys]

Poor. poor Stanley. No one, virtually, is giving odds on his survival.

Half of me believes that no toolbearer will die till the very end.

I think he is up in the immortality list, right under Parson. If he croaks, the war of the tools is over and GK disbands. And this war is the narrative of erfworld. The spell that Parson binds will dissolve, robbing him of the excuse to play war. Wanda will be proven false in her believe that the tools will be united, and lose her drive. And since she is a GK unit, she will disband if she's in the field, freeze in time in a barbarian city, or be cut off from her decrypted in the Magic Kingdom. And that be the end of the story.

Stanley might appoint an heir designate first (possibly Parson). And Wanda refers to the fate of the "arkentools", not the Tools, so maybe Charlie kills Stanley and takes the hammer or changes his plans and captures him.