Book 2 – Text Updates 032

[Oberon]

Duncan's great for Jillian. Especially considering how he appears to be taking the Heir in his stride - he seems pretty nonchalant about it. Reckon it's because he joined after they started popping it, or that he's just that committed to the side's cause now?

Or maybe it's because Jillian, who asked Duncan to warn her about any possible compulsions placed on her, had Duncan worked over good by a Turnamancer aka compulsion?

Sometimes Erf seems a rather depressing place. Endless war, Side leaders being able to end you with a thought, Turnamancy brainwashing, Thinkamancy compulsions, and being "converted" to toolism by an artifact.
Let's hope that whatever changes Parson brings to Erfworld, a core part of those changes is a greater degree of self determination for the rank and file Units.

Yeah. I think Duncan is building up for Retirony. It sounds like he wants to maybe govern a level 2 or so and enjoy what passes for peace.

What passes for peace, until an enemy force of Queen, CWL, and a pile of warlords on Megas appears a hex away? This is irony!

We've learned that food can be popped at the beginning of the turn or harvested from certain units like sourmanders (we haven't been told if there is a timing restriction to this).

We've learned that objects can fall to the ground out of turn.

I think what we're going to see is that some dragons are going to be harvested for food, fall to the ground, and then decrypted.

I sure hope not. You can only decrypt a dead unit. A unit harvested for food is no longer a dead unit, it is food. Or there would be no need to have a term "harvesting", it'd just be "eating a dead sourmander", or whatever was killed for food.

I really think all the worrying about how Parson is getting to Jetstone is clouding the issue of how is Wanda going to avoid an entire Dittomanced battalion of Archers from shooting her out of the sky.

Whatever it is, it will combine all the exploits and things Parson's learned about Erf mechanics thus far. It's doubtful the author would pull a deus ex machina and invent a gamechanger on the fly.

As a contrary example, I refer you to the despised DDR, which was indeed a game changer invented on the fly.

Not Ace. According to tradition the most deadly serious person in the room will get a pie in the face.

Did you just refer to the guy who enthuses about a "bracer blaster, with force beam action, that really lights up!" as the most deadly serious person in the room?

In the page 3 of this thread, people mentioned Parson calculating some odds about Charlie's abilities. Remember that the bracer gives the user results according to what THE USER knows, not the %100 truth.
Remember Parson's words when it was GK's turn and Wanda was asking about odds. Parson said that Wanda's chances of taking the city by air dropped a lot after they learned about the air force of Faq. Jillian was there at first calculation too, but they just didn't know about it, so Jillian wasn't included in the calculation.

It's an inconsistency, all right.

Parson gave Charlie odds on how many Archons it would take to take out the GK garrison. And then Parson has a little sit down with a decrypted Archon and gets a lot of nice information on what Archons can do. But, in order to give accurate odds to Charlie, he would need to know what the exact capabilities of Archons were. But if he knows, then why ask them about their abilities?

So there is plenty of evidence that the bracer does not operate off of user knowledge.

And plenty of evidence that it does.

2- If GK is so well off financially... why haven't they (or Parson now) started hiring a ton of casters ffs? For example, GK's leadership knows how useful a Lookamancer like Misty can be and yet they haven't hired another one? Just hire the casters needed to repeat the "end of turn" spell and there would be no reason to have a food fight at all.

Because the MK isn't selling items or services to GK at this time. It's been mentioned that they can't buy healing scrolls because they'd been cut off by MK residents who don't care for the actions of GK. And if they aren't selling a healing scroll, hiring out a caster is also right out. We don't know if the MK is a monolith, so they might find some rogue casters, maybe.

[Aquillion]

Why are people assuming Jillian would have joined in on Jetstone's side?

She has no reason to care about Jetstone. She was only in that fight to capture Ansom, which she's accomplished. Nothing else there matters to her...

Except, possibly, Wanda. My reading of this isn't that Charlie seriously was trying to convince Jillian to go back. He was using reverse-psychology to keep her away, because he's smart enough to realize that if she came back, even money would have her saving Wanda instead of killing her.

I mean, why would Jillian do anything else? She doesn't actually want Wanda dead (if she did, she could have killed her before -- and there's a chance that Wanda's death will even kill Ansom.) And she has absolutely nothing else she cares about in that fight, at all.

[ftl]

Well, in that case, you have a new range of questions you can input when you need to. Let's say you discard anything that returns a zero probability. Then you take anything that remains and ask the bracer how it would affect your battle plan's success percentage if Charlie had X power, as well as asking how likely it is that Charlie would use power X in said battle. If it returns a low percentage for one or both of those questions, you can likely rule out said power for that battle, at least.

You're missing the number of powers that you can ask about, though. If I ask about 50 different powers, and get low but not negligible odds that he'll use any given one of them - then that adds up to "it's likely that Charlie will pull out SOMETHING, but I have no idea what it is." (If you ask about 50 different things which might be used, get back a 5% probability for each one being used, that would give 95% probability that ONE of those things will end up being used if they're independent.) Which isn't at all useful for planning for them as contingencies - it'll end up as planning a contingency for every little thing you can think up, same as if you hadn't asked the bracer in the first place.

The zero-probability answers WOULD be useful in eliminating possibilities - but there's no guarantee that you'll get any zero-probability answers at all. Maybe it would only answer that for powers that would be physically against the rules. Likewise, if you happen to get a high probability for one power that you didn't expect, that would mean you should plan for that one more than the others... but, again, there's no guarantee that the bracer will give you any of those.

Or, looking at it in a different way, from an information theory point of view - suppose Parson could come up with guesses for the probability of Charlie using various things, without the bracer. If, when asking the bracer, he gets back probabilities which are the same as he would have guessed without it, then it's given him no new information. Since Charlie is this big enigma, at the moment, if he had to guess, Parson would probably assign nonzero probabilities to a whole host of different thinkamancy-related or archon-related powers; but since there's a lot of potential powers to guess at, limited only by his imagination, the chance of actually guessing something right is low, and so the probabilities would be low but nonzero.

[MonteCristo]

Yup, spacerock is screwed...
I figure that Jillian and he flyers would be the only kind of reinforcements that could make me question if Parson's plans would be successful. I doubt Charlie and Trem's plans alone will trump whatever parson has planned; especially since, even if Charlie was listening, their are some parts of Parson's plan he does not know...
Trem and charlie will work to give Parson a good once over, but this is gonna be end badly for jetstone...

I only hope that Trem will find a way to fight any other day... and not as one of the decrypted

[CorrTerek]

...

Yeah, I guess you're right. I still think Parson would've at least tried, though.

[Altima]

Predictimancy below...


4- Just before Ace Hardware kills Wanda... he and the remaining garrison will freeze in place because the King has died.

A city will 'unfreeze' when they're attacked. Having GK forces inside the city certainly qualifies as under attack. Parson mentions this in Book 1, when he's afraid that Stanley will croak and that the city will freeze long enough to allow Ansom to entirely surround GK's walls at his leisure.

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if GK croaks Slately, Charlie fronts the money for Tram to become heir (and then king, automatically, I suppose), and both GK and Jetstone are depleted so much that they cannot continue the battle. Remember, it takes move for attackers to go from one area of the city to the other, so after all the dwagons fall, Jetstone forces can basically retreat to another area, like the Tower or Dungeon or outer garrison, and GK could not follow.

[build6]

Why are people assuming Jillian would have joined in on Jetstone's side?

She has no reason to care about Jetstone. She was only in that fight to capture Ansom, which she's accomplished. Nothing else there matters to her...

Except, possibly, Wanda. My reading of this isn't that Charlie seriously was trying to convince Jillian to go back. He was using reverse-psychology to keep her away, because he's smart enough to realize that if she came back, even money would have her saving Wanda instead of killing her.

I mean, why would Jillian do anything else? She doesn't actually want Wanda dead (if she did, she could have killed her before -- and there's a chance that Wanda's death will even kill Ansom.) And she has absolutely nothing else she cares about in that fight, at all.

that's a damn good point. If it's one thing we know about Jillian is that she does what she wants, no matter who got her where she is now.

hrm, but that would be chalking another one up on the side of the "Charlie doesn't deliberately make mistakes" column, though. It did seem rather petulant, what he did - but Charlie could well be like that.

[Raileks]

In a way, Duncan is right. Jetstone is in a situation that should be just about impossible for them to lose. Their enemy, including the highest value target in the enemy's army, is trapped in Jetstone's airspace with nowhere to run and no reinforcements possible (as far as Jetstone knows). If Jetstone does goof this so badly that they lose the battle, many sides will be hard pressed to say it wasn't their fault based upon the current available information.

Jetstone could have ended this with a few archer volleys right at the start of turn, or at least when Tramennis returned to the city. Their stalling has only given Parson time to pull his out-of-left-field game-breaker together.

Even if Parson does pull off a win here, it really is Jetstone's fault for not taking full advantage of the situation.

Lesson: Never assume the enemy is defeated until after you have actually defeated them.

I dislike the assumptions that Jetstone is not attacking Wanda immediately due to arrogance/stupidity/formality. I think it has more to do with a question of what would happen to the lost sons if she dies and whether or not it is possible to turn them back. Since the chief warlord of Jetstone is their brother he is probably hesitant to make such a call without all the facts.

[Archameades]

I wonder; if GK takes over Spacerock, will the new heir pop to GK instead? My instincts are that all production queues are wiped when a city falls, but after Sizemore razed Gobwin Knob a pre-ordered dragon still popped, even though the city was not level 3. Maybe, the city retains the production queue since it was already paid for? This could be key since it looks like Parson may be on hand and trying to take the city rather than raze it.

[wykstrad]

interesting... does psyching someone out count as "natural thinkamancy?"

[Zak3056]

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if GK croaks Slately, Charlie fronts the money for Tram to become heir (and then king, automatically, I suppose), and both GK and Jetstone are depleted so much that they cannot continue the battle. Remember, it takes move for attackers to go from one area of the city to the other, so after all the dwagons fall, Jetstone forces can basically retreat to another area, like the Tower or Dungeon or outer garrison, and GK could not follow.

Unfortunately for Jetstone, this leaves the balance of forces at whatever it was when they retreated, with GK's turn coming at dawn. Once GK's turn starts, all of their units will heal, and they will simply annihilate Jetstone's damaged units. Unless, of course, Charlie enters the fight, since his natural turn is before GK's...

[Direcoyote]

Hrrm.... Does production still continue while a side is frozen?
Let's look at this scenario.
GK Kills Slately but cannot get at the remaining troops for some reason.
Jillian hits Progrock.
GK leaves Spacerock to chase after Jillian.
Jetstone freezes.
Production continues on Jetstone's heir.
GK wars against FAQ and is unable to revisit Jetstone.
Hagar is bribed not to attack by Charlie.
Jetstone's heir pops and is popped as the ruler, unfreezing the side.

[Kender Wizard]

Ah, an excellent text update. Made my day a little brighter Hmm. Has anyone ever taken back a city from GK since Wanda attuned to the 'pliers? I have long thought that GK cities would have larger defending forces, simply because they'd have the decrypted forces that were there when the city fell along with whatever GK popped afterwards. Heck, in one of the text updates, Sizemore was even giving the task of rebuilding sites that GK intentionally razed because they had an inferior build list of unit types. The best units may well have been included in Wandas strike force, but the majority would probably either migrate to the front or remain in their cities. Which means, if GK has not completely stopped normal unit production, Progrock will very likely have 5/3 or double the forces of a standard city of that size. Several of Jillians units were visibly wounded in capturing Ansom. After sacking Progrock, her forces might be weakened enough so as to be unable to help if they returned to Spacerock.

[slayn82]

Unfortunately for Jetstone, this leaves the balance of forces at whatever it was when they retreated, with GK's turn coming at dawn. Once GK's turn starts, all of their units will heal, and they will simply annihilate Jetstone's damaged units. Unless, of course, Charlie enters the fight, since his natural turn is before GK's...

Maybe, i remember the first coalision trying to exploit Transilvito's turn to get Stanley, but, on the other side... Isn't this JILLIAN'S turn? Since she is the only side allied both to Charlie and Jetstone, so if she had broken her alliance with Charlie his Archons would be powerless as in unable to react to GK's side? And maybe Charlie is trying very hard to ally himself with Jetstone before Jillian break the alliance, so his units could still take part in the fight?

[Direcoyote]

Right now, it's the RCC's turn. Jillian hasn't broken from the RCC yet...I don't think. I don't recall when they said Faq's turn would be.

[Oberon]

You're missing the number of powers that you can ask about, though. If I ask about 50 different powers, and get low but not negligible odds that he'll use any given one of them - then that adds up to "it's likely that Charlie will pull out SOMETHING, but I have no idea what it is." (If you ask about 50 different things which might be used, get back a 5% probability for each one being used, that would give 95% probability that ONE of those things will end up being used if they're independent.) Which isn't at all useful for planning for them as contingencies - it'll end up as planning a contingency for every little thing you can think up, same as if you hadn't asked the bracer in the first place.

I'm not sure I understand why this would be hard. Why not ask:

Can Charlie listen in on Thinkagrams which are not funneled through him?

Can Charlie listen in on Eyebook chat which does not have him as a specific participant?

Etc.

There may be better ways to state these questions (i.e. Can Charlie listen in on Thinkagrams from myself to Wanda using Maggie as the Thinkamancer? Or whatever), but Parson is no doubt smarter then I and would phrase his questions better. And he would have the advantage of both experience and feedback. He would be able to base his next question off of the response he got from the prior question and all other questions he had asked. Eventually even a dullard should eventually be able to figure out how to ask questions which returned meaningful answers. And Parson is no dullard.

[Oberon]

Ah, an excellent text update. Made my day a little brighter Hmm. Has anyone ever taken back a city from GK since Wanda attuned to the 'pliers? I have long thought that GK cities would have larger defending forces, simply because they'd have the decrypted forces that were there when the city fell along with whatever GK popped afterwards. Heck, in one of the text updates, Sizemore was even giving the task of rebuilding sites that GK intentionally razed because they had an inferior build list of unit types. The best units may well have been included in Wandas strike force, but the majority would probably either migrate to the front or remain in their cities. Which means, if GK has not completely stopped normal unit production, Progrock will very likely have 5/3 or double the forces of a standard city of that size. Several of Jillians units were visibly wounded in capturing Ansom. After sacking Progrock, her forces might be weakened enough so as to be unable to help if they returned to Spacerock.

This is a really awesome observation! As you say, the GK minor cities should be rather well fortified compared to any typical captured city, because:

Wanda would have immediately decrypted the dead defenders. This would leave the newly captured city with a pile of defenders it would not otherwise have. All of the defending Garrison units, for example. They would be decrypted and then left behind, as promoting them and taking them along with the main army advance might be an inefficient use of funds.

-and-

Sizemore would have been put to use rebuilding the city. So rather than a newly captured Level 1 which needs a lot of Shmuckers to promote, Sizemore would have been used to build it up to some unknown level. But we can assume a minimum of a Level 2 city, with GK specific Unit production options. And Sizemore remade GK from a L1 to a L5 in a single turn.

All said, even minor GK cities should be far better defended, in both Units and Level, than they were when they were originally captured. Does this make them strongly defended? Who knows. But it should make them better defended then the typical outlying city of any given Side.

[Squishalot]

You're missing the number of powers that you can ask about, though. If I ask about 50 different powers, and get low but not negligible odds that he'll use any given one of them - then that adds up to "it's likely that Charlie will pull out SOMETHING, but I have no idea what it is." (If you ask about 50 different things which might be used, get back a 5% probability for each one being used, that would give 95% probability that ONE of those things will end up being used if they're independent.) Which isn't at all useful for planning for them as contingencies - it'll end up as planning a contingency for every little thing you can think up, same as if you hadn't asked the bracer in the first place.

I'm not sure I understand why this would be hard. Why not ask:

Can Charlie listen in on Thinkagrams which are not funneled through him?

Can Charlie listen in on Eyebook chat which does not have him as a specific participant?

Because none of that works in the first place. It's likely that Charlie will pull out something, but Parson has to enter in assumptions for what Charlie can do, and it will calculate the odds based on those assumptions. He can speculate on the likelihood that Charlie has X ability, but it's going to be based on the information that he already has anyway.

Consider the simulations he was running with Jack. "What if they could all cast like Archons?" The resulting battle that ensued would be based on the assumption that they could. The bracer can't give you a yes/no answer about unit abilities, it requires you to input the abilities and it will calculate the probability of a result occurring. The idea that it predicts that Charlie is behind the missing goblin population is likely to be, in part, to do with Parson's suspicion of Charlie.

All said, even minor GK cities should be far better defended, in both Units and Level, than they were when they were originally captured. Does this make them strongly defended? Who knows. But it should make them better defended then the typical outlying city of any given Side.

There should be significantly lower numbers of units than when they were originally captured. Consider that Wrigley was a part of the strike force at the bridge. Wanda is most definitely taking troops with her. By virtue of the fact that she has a huge ground force, they've been taking troops from those cities.

[the_tick_rules]

well she used to have a huge ground force

[CorrTerek]

well she used to have a huge ground force

Poor Ford, killed by a stuffed elephant thingy...