Book 2 – Text Updates 032

[zilfallon]

Kender Wizard, good observation, but:

Any decrypted units might have been added to GK's ground force at the main assault. And the additional productions? I don't know, maybe they've been pulled back to capital? They are rich, and can still pay their troops since most of them cost nothing, even if they lose a few cities. But having the capital under siege would be bad. So there's no reason not to move most of troops back to capital. It's just a possibility though, and don't know if Stanley thought about doing it.

[joosy]

Right now, it's the RCC's turn. Jillian hasn't broken from the RCC yet...I don't think. I don't recall when they said Faq's turn would be.

and in any case, by breaking alliance they do not get 'another turn' that day. The turn order would then change the next morning. The order of whose turn it is changes the next day, but, without the help of turnamancy, you do not get more than one turn a day, allied or not. In fact, in erfworld, they don't judge the passing of time by days, but rather by the number of turns their side experiences.

[Oberon]

You're missing the number of powers that you can ask about, though. If I ask about 50 different powers, and get low but not negligible odds that he'll use any given one of them - then that adds up to "it's likely that Charlie will pull out SOMETHING, but I have no idea what it is." (If you ask about 50 different things which might be used, get back a 5% probability for each one being used, that would give 95% probability that ONE of those things will end up being used if they're independent.) Which isn't at all useful for planning for them as contingencies - it'll end up as planning a contingency for every little thing you can think up, same as if you hadn't asked the bracer in the first place.

I'm not sure I understand why this would be hard. Why not ask:

Can Charlie listen in on Thinkagrams which are not funneled through him?

Can Charlie listen in on Eyebook chat which does not have him as a specific participant?

Because none of that works in the first place. It's likely that Charlie will pull out something, but Parson has to enter in assumptions for what Charlie can do, and it will calculate the odds based on those assumptions.

I'm not sure I understand why you think that calculating the odds for probable actions isn't possible. Charlie himself taught Parson how to do this, when he spent a calculation to ask if accepting the deal of information in exchange for the remaining calculations was going to be worthwhile. As I said, I'm not Parson and there is probably a better way to phrase the questions. But Parson is Parson, and unlike me he has a near instantaneous feedback loop to improve his calculation capabilities. It's like a digital camera: You get better much faster because you can immediately see the result, as opposed to film photography where there is a long development cycle which slows the feedback loop considerably.

Would you also say that none of the below would eventually give Parson the absolute knowledge on the basic question of "can Charlie eavesdrop on Thinkagrams?"

1) Has Charlie eavesdropped on Thinkagrams?
2) Can Charlie eavesdrop on Thinkagrams?
3) What are the odds that Charlie will eavesdrop on a Thinkagram?

If he starts at the assumption that Charlie has some ability, Parson should be able to calculate enough to eventually eliminate doubt. one way or another. If Charlie is in the habit of eavesdropping on Thinkagrams, then the odds that he will do so in the future should be nigh 100%.

[Oberon]

There should be significantly lower numbers of units than when they were originally captured.

Lower than when they were originally captured, sure. But much higher than the typical captured city.

Consider that Wrigley was a part of the strike force at the bridge. Wanda is most definitely taking troops with her. By virtue of the fact that she has a huge ground force, they've been taking troops from those cities.

But this is irrelevant. In normal Erf warfare, Wriggly would be dead and depopped. So Wanda has a larger forward army due to the 'Pliers, but that is irrelevant to the discussion of city garrisons. Wanda would have decrypted all of the units, and Garrison units cannot move. Unless they were promoted, an act we've seen happen exactly once, these units will remain in the newly captured city. And every single one of these units is a unit which would not ordinarily be there. Any city which Sizemore rebuilt would be popping higher grade units, since a typical captured city will be a Level 1 and cannot pop Dwagons, and Sizemore can upgrade a Level 1 to a Level 5 in a single turn, and a Level 3 city can pop Dwagons. Also, any natural allies present there can be rapidly multiplied using shmuckers, which GK has plentiful amounts of.

So as Kender Wizard pointed out, the GK cities should be much better defended than the typical newly captured city. Well defended enough to put up serious resistance to a force like Jillian's? Doubtful. There is probably little enough precedent for an expeditionary force like Jillian's, which includes the Queen/Overlord, the CWL, at least one caster, and a large force of Megas. But enough additional resistance to do more damage than might be anticipated from a newly captured city? Absolutely.

[Nihila]

So as Kender Wizard pointed out, the GK cities should be much better defended than the typical newly captured city. Well defended enough to put up serious resistance to a force like Jillian's? Doubtful. There is probably little enough precedent for an expeditionary force like Jillian's, which includes the Queen/Overlord, the CWL, at least one caster, and a large force of Megas. But enough additional resistance to do more damage than might be anticipated from a newly captured city? Absolutely.

I think that in the summer update where Caesar takes back a Transylvito city, there is a Shockamancy spell trap which is not triggered by a caster--Caesar specifically mentions that the caster isn't present. Would Wanda have left some spell defenses in any of those cities? Because if she did, Jillian might meet much more resistance than expected, especially with the higher troop count.

[ftl]

I'm not sure I understand why you think that calculating the odds for probable actions isn't possible.

It is possible. But there is no guarantee that you'll get *useful* information.

Charlie himself taught Parson how to do this, when he spent a calculation to ask if accepting the deal of information in exchange for the remaining calculations was going to be worthwhile. As I said, I'm not Parson and there is probably a better way to phrase the questions. But Parson is Parson, and unlike me he has a near instantaneous feedback loop to improve his calculation capabilities. It's like a digital camera: You get better much faster because you can immediately see the result, as opposed to film photography where there is a long development cycle which slows the feedback loop considerably.

There is no guarantee that an answer gives you useful information you didn't already have.

Would you also say that none of the below would eventually give Parson the absolute knowledge on the basic question of "can Charlie eavesdrop on Thinkagrams?"

Might, might not.

1) Has Charlie eavesdropped on Thinkagrams?

You'd have to ask that as "what's the probability that Charlie's eavesdropped on a thinkagram."

Which would probably give you the same answer as...

2) Can Charlie eavesdrop on Thinkagrams?

"what's the probability that Charlie can eavesdrop on thinkagrams"

or

3) What are the odds that Charlie will eavesdrop on a Thinkagram?

If he starts at the assumption that Charlie has some ability, Parson should be able to calculate enough to eventually eliminate doubt. one way or another. If Charlie is in the habit of eavesdropping on Thinkagrams, then the odds that he will do so in the future should be nigh 100%.

Not necessarily. IF Charlie is in the habit of eavesdropping on thinkagrams, then the probability should be 100%. If he CAN'T eavesdrop on thinkagrams, then the probability should be 0. So, if the bracer doesn't *know* which is true, it'll give an answer which is the same as the answer to the question "What's the probability that Charlie can eavesdrop on thinkagrams." If this probability, based on what the bracer knows, is the same as the probability that parson would assign if he had to guess, then asking the bracer doesn't give him any new information, regardless of how he phrases the question.

[Lamech]

I think that in the summer update where Caesar takes back a Transylvito city, there is a Shockamancy spell trap which is not triggered by a caster--Caesar specifically mentions that the caster isn't present. Would Wanda have left some spell defenses in any of those cities? Because if she did, Jillian might meet much more resistance than expected, especially with the higher troop count.

Wanda almost certainly could leave spell defenses. Probably some extremely nasty ones. Look at how by combining disiplines the archons were able to reduce or neutralize the effects of Wanda's dance-fighting. Of course we have no idea if Wanda would actually bother. She always seemed to me to be rather inefficent and reckless with her power. I also note that the shockamancer could have used some scrolls to spell up the tower and Wanda obviously can't unload dozens of turns worth of scrolls on each tower. And Wanda probably also would want to spend juice on magic items and scrolls to protect her.

Of course one dead megalow/dispel/anti-fly is all it really takes to screw things up big time.

But this is irrelevant. In normal Erf warfare, Wriggly would be dead and depopped. So Wanda has a larger forward army due to the 'Pliers, but that is irrelevant to the discussion of city garrisons. Wanda would have decrypted all of the units, and Garrison units cannot move. Unless they were promoted, an act we've seen happen exactly once, these units will remain in the newly captured city. And every single one of these units is a unit which would not ordinarily be there. Any city which Sizemore rebuilt would be popping higher grade units, since a typical captured city will be a Level 1 and cannot pop Dwagons, and Sizemore can upgrade a Level 1 to a Level 5 in a single turn, and a Level 3 city can pop Dwagons. Also, any natural allies present there can be rapidly multiplied using shmuckers, which GK has plentiful amounts of.

About 6k decrypted were around when the battle started and about 1k were going to be used in the Jetstone garrison. So... maybe 5/6th of the forces are still in their cities. Possibly less for units that croaked. But those cities will be better defended than your average newly captured city.


A whole new tangent. Its obviously ironic that Duncan is being asked to watch for suggestion and that Jillian is so worried about it and she was a victim of it and what not. But what if he realizes he is under suggestion? What happens if he tries to "break free"? Or if some stray caster sends a dispel headed his way.

[Kender Wizard]

Note to previous tangent - it seems likely that the changes made to Duncan were permanent, and that there is no lasting spell effect on him. So, if a caster hit him with a dispel, he'd probably just shrug and gank the caster rather than have any world-shaking epiphanies. After all, we've never seen any indication that a captured unit (Jillian seems a special case, as her relationship with Wanda is... more complex than the average turning of a unit to a new side) ever needs to have 'maintainence' done on his loyalty spell to keep him loyal, as might be expected for an on-going spell effect rather than a permanent change. Indeed, Jillian's case is most instructive, as it seems that Wanda needed to exert considerable time and effort (and sparkly glowy magical dust) to maintain a loyalty spell on an enemy unit, which is what the previous tangent described.

On another tangent altogether - Has anybody else noticed that, except for that time where she activated the air-defense spells, Wanda has never cast a single offensive spell? Please correct me if I'm wrong there, but I just can't recall ever seeing that. This may just be having dealt with necromancers in other genera, but they always had an offensive component involving energy draining and death spells. Croakamancy derives from naughtymancy, which has aspects of motion and matter. Heck, Croakamancy is pretty close kin to shockamancy (also under Naughtymancy), the discipline most famous for its offensive spells. So, especially for the extremely accomplished caster that she is, this is rather surprising to me. Thoughts?

[Welf von Ehrwald]

But this is irrelevant. In normal Erf warfare, Wriggly would be dead and depopped. So Wanda has a larger forward army due to the 'Pliers, but that is irrelevant to the discussion of city garrisons. Wanda would have decrypted all of the units, and Garrison units cannot move. Unless they were promoted, an act we've seen happen exactly once, these units will remain in the newly captured city. And every single one of these units is a unit which would not ordinarily be there. Any city which Sizemore rebuilt would be popping higher grade units, since a typical captured city will be a Level 1 and cannot pop Dwagons, and Sizemore can upgrade a Level 1 to a Level 5 in a single turn, and a Level 3 city can pop Dwagons. Also, any natural allies present there can be rapidly multiplied using shmuckers, which GK has plentiful amounts of.

[/quote]

Wanda can only decrypt units if there were units. I don't think Jetstone made the mistake of leaving troops in these cities. It's more likely that they pulled all the troops in GK's way back to the capital, disbanded units to expensive to upgrade and sacked the city to boast the treasure. In that case GK had to leave troops behind to defend the new cities.

It's also not quite correct that Wrigley would have been dead an depoped in normal erf warfare; a croakamancer like Wanda can "reuse" enemy units at least for a certain time. Probably one of the reasons why GK could expand under a chief warlord Stanley.

[zilfallon]

So as Kender Wizard pointed out, the GK cities should be much better defended than the typical newly captured city. Well defended enough to put up serious resistance to a force like Jillian's? Doubtful. There is probably little enough precedent for an expeditionary force like Jillian's, which includes the Queen/Overlord, the CWL, at least one caster, and a large force of Megas. But enough additional resistance to do more damage than might be anticipated from a newly captured city? Absolutely.

I think that in the summer update where Caesar takes back a Transylvito city, there is a Shockamancy spell trap which is not triggered by a caster--Caesar specifically mentions that the caster isn't present. Would Wanda have left some spell defenses in any of those cities? Because if she did, Jillian might meet much more resistance than expected, especially with the higher troop count.

Nihila, the city that Caesar took didn't belong to GK.

[Lamech]

Nihila, the city that Caesar took didn't belong to GK.

But presumably a caster's from other disiplines can do the similar things. At the very least Wanda could have used some of her shockamancy scrolls to do it.

Note to previous tangent - it seems likely that the changes made to Duncan were permanent, and that there is no lasting spell effect on him. So, if a caster hit him with a dispel, he'd probably just shrug and gank the caster rather than have any world-shaking epiphanies. After all, we've never seen any indication that a captured unit (Jillian seems a special case, as her relationship with Wanda is... more complex than the average turning of a unit to a new side) ever needs to have 'maintainence' done on his loyalty spell to keep him loyal, as might be expected for an on-going spell effect rather than a permanent change. Indeed, Jillian's case is most instructive, as it seems that Wanda needed to exert considerable time and effort (and sparkly glowy magical dust) to maintain a loyalty spell on an enemy unit, which is what the previous tangent described.

Certainly seems like a long lasting effect. He has repeatedly mentioned how he feels different. How he is calm facing down the flier army of doom. I'm not really sure if Wanda's spell required mantinence or if that was simply the first time that Wanda used her suggestion spell. Maggie calling Wanda inexperienced would seem to imply that Wanda didn't practice her thinkamancy much... Also magic items, and spell-defenses are both examples of unmaintained magic effects. I mean sure ending the spell might not cause an epiphany right away, but if he gets to thinking down the road? Maybe...

On another tangent altogether - Has anybody else noticed that, except for that time where she activated the air-defense spells, Wanda has never cast a single offensive spell? Please correct me if I'm wrong there, but I just can't recall ever seeing that. This may just be having dealt with necromancers in other genera, but they always had an offensive component involving energy draining and death spells. Croakamancy derives from naughtymancy, which has aspects of motion and matter. Heck, Croakamancy is pretty close kin to shockamancy (also under Naughtymancy), the discipline most famous for its offensive spells. So, especially for the extremely accomplished caster that she is, this is rather surprising to me. Thoughts?

I would also be surprised if croakamancy was limited to uncroaking units. Thinkamancy has a bunch of things it can do, including offensive magic. When Parson entered the MK it seemed that every single caster had some sort of attack. Even turnamancy has a large variety of effects, and spells that can be used in battle. If croakamancy can't be used in battle? I just think that Wanda never really had a good chance to use them. During her two fights in the BfGK it was against Ansom, wielding the pliers, and she probably assumed that the pliers would simply attune to her if he tried anything; the big dance number, but Parson was having his casters conserve juice. Of course maybe Wanda likes control to much to bother with offensive spells. Wouldn't surprise me.

[effataigus]

I love speculation as much as the next forumite, but I don't see any strong evidence one way or another to suggest that Gobwin Knob left some large shockamancy or troop buildup in wait for this unanticipated expeditionary force. Yes GK gets units from sacking low level towns instead of losing them, but they also bled off an unknown fraction of these units for other purposes. Yes they might have rebuilt these cities to a higher level than they were at when they were conquered, but they might have also rebuilt some of them to lower levels. Yes, they might have hired a whatevermancer to spell up the city, but they might have also triggered more spell defenses than they set up after they left. The observation that sheds the best light on this would be the statement (by I forget who) that GK is weak beyond their front lines.

From a storytelling standpoint, this will only become truly relevant if the outlying GK defenses manage to do significant damage to Jillian or her column. This seems unlikely (again, from a storytelling standpoint) due to the lack of author attention to GK's defenses in this regard. The only times that we've been broadsided by powers and abilities has been when it was thwarting Parson or GK (a la book 1), and it would be a disturbing thing indeed if Jillian were elevated to the oft-cheated protagonist of book 2.

As long as we're speculating on how GK has their defenses distributed and how this might shape the plot going forward... what defenses are left back at Gobwin Knob (the capital)? Even if it didn't strongly affect the actual defenses, Parson leaving the capital has just painted a giant plot-bomb target on GK. If Charlie were to surprise-attack that city and grab the Arkenhammer (assuming Wanda can then found a new Croatoan side on JS's wreckage or go barbarian instead of just going neutral), then book 3 would be a decimated (several times over) GK strike force vs. Charlie. This contest might even be lopsided enough initially that it could actually pose a threat to the wielder of the Arkenpliers.

Once again, there hasn't really been enough foreshadowing to worry about this though. We've heard that Charlie has "significant forces in the {Jetstone} battlespace," but very little to suggest the same for GK. In fact, the only thing we've heard in this regard is that Charlie had a failed incursion into GK airspace over last summer. Also, I would have expected a mention of the defenses that were left at GK if it were to become relevant.

[gameboy1234]

Everyone is making this so complicated...

- Dwagons can fall (witness Parson's failed flight attempt).
- Crash a Dwagon into a tightly packed enemy formation... lots of dead enemy. (Dwagon even has a 2 in 3 chance of surviving the crash)
- Wanda decrypts the newly dead formation.
- Rinse Repeat until no enemy units remain.

This is what I think, mainly. However this:

Urf's interpretation also lends itself to a simple tactic - fall to the ground in the midst of a huge clump of units, foolamancy-disguise your own infantry and warlords (the guys who were mounted on those 30 dwagons) as Jetstone infantry and vice versa, make a massive chaotic free-for-all where nobody knows whose infantry are whose, Wanda walks around the carnage decrypting things (and Jack continues to make those things look like the enemy). Net result - everybody ally and enemy alike... leaving Wanda on the ground, with enough of a contingent of decrypted to take the garrison by ground, even after probably losing all of the dwagons (twice).

is darn nice. I'm still stuck on "food fight" but I think you may have it. Parson wouldn't let a unit's abilities go to waste, so adding Jack into the mix makes perfect sense.

Between the initial salvo of falling units, and the confusion resulting from any deceptions Jack casts, I think we might indeed have a pretty good food fight on our hands.

[teratorn]

Parson leaving the capital has just painted a giant plot-bomb target on GK. If Charlie were to surprise-attack that city and grab the Arkenhammer (assuming Wanda can then found a new Croatoan side on JS's wreckage or go barbarian instead of just going neutral), then book 3 would be a decimated (several times over) GK strike force vs. Charlie.

It would be dangerous for Charlie to take GK with Parson (and Wanda) in the field. Stanley could always name Parson his heir and declare Spacerock as the new capital. We've been assuming he was eavesdropping into Parson's thinkagram when in fact he might have been contacting the hobgoblins (working as spies for his side) to take over GK.

[effataigus]

It would be dangerous for Charlie to take GK with Parson (and Wanda) in the field. Stanley could always name Parson his heir and declare Spacerock as the new capital. We've been assuming he was eavesdropping into Parson's thinkagram when in fact he might have been contacting the hobgoblins (working as spies for his side) to take over GK.

Oh my... I had forgotten about the hobgobwin natural allies and Vurp's lie to Parson. I suppose this would count as foreshadowing Charlie having forces in the area and GK not having as many forces as one might think in the area.

[zilfallon]

I think that the reason Vurp felt guilty while talking with Parson is, he was somehow responsible for death of Saline IV, and he didn't tell him about it. Sure, disappearance of gobwins point everything at Charlie, but Vurp being involved in the rebellion, seems more Wanda-ish.

Not to mention that the story would have huge boards with STORY FAIL written on them, if Charlie was responsible for every booping event in the entire booping Erfworld. That's what I think anyway.

[Trotsky]

...

Yeah, I guess you're right. I still think Parson would've at least tried, though.

He could have just asked the bracer what the probability that the attempt would be worth his time and gotten a really low number.

[teratorn]

Not to mention that the story would have huge boards with STORY FAIL written on them, if Charlie was responsible for every booping event in the entire booping Erfworld. That's what I think anyway.

Charlie wants the arkentools. He let Parson evade capture for an extra turn not only because he wanted to see the show, but also because he expected to get the arkenpliers. He's not responsible for every event in Erfworld, but I expect him to follow the arkentools rather closely.

[Not Me]

For those wondering about GK troops behind their frontline, I'm not sure we can think they are so poorly defended as some are speculating.

From different Summer updates and text updates in Book 2, I found the following:

Turns since TBfGK: 20

CharlsNChrg: About this morning, Parson...
LordHamster: Yeah. About that.
CharlsNChrg: Is that how it's going to be?
LordHamster: For the record, I didn't order it.
LordHamster: But yeah, I think it's safe to say that anything you stick in our battlespace is going to get cut off.
LordHamster: So be careful what you're sticking, and where.
CharlsNChrg: Fair enough.
CharlsNChrg: What would it cost me for permission to pass through?
LordHamster: Dunno. That would be up to Stanley.
CharlsNChrg: Could you find out?
LordHamster: Weeeell, I'll ask heem, but I don't theenk he'll be verrah keen.
CharlsNChrg: Please do.
CharlsNChrg: So, um...
LordHamster: Yes?
CharlsNChrg: Couldn't help notice a small detail about that battle.
LordHamster: I bet you couldn't.
CharlsNChrg: That was Patty, Maxene and LaVerne.
LordHamster: If you say so.
CharlsNChrg: What were they doing in that black raiment, fighting for Gobwin Knob?

<-- Conversation between Charlie and Parson, Summer update #39

Gobwin Knob’s dominion had spread out far and wide, across a variety of terrain types, and Sizemore had seen quite a bit of it. Warlord Ansom and Lady Firebaugh had taken to razing cities which produced less useful unit types, and he would fly out by dwagon relay and rebuild on the ruins. This created a city that popped the same kinds of units the capital did: infantry and twolls for a Level One, plus spidews and warlords for a Level Two, and dwagons for a Level Three or more.

<-- from Sizemore's chat with Janis, Book 2 Text 2

Gobwin Knob's side now spanned fifteen cities, and about 9400 units. Among these were over eight thousand speaking units, any one of whom could request Maggie's attention via intense concentration. Similarly, she could reach out to these units herself, to relay orders or request status. Scouting units in all directions, some of them hundreds of hexes away, passed along terrain and encounter information to her as they moved. And with Archons out there in the field, she had other, primitive Thinkamancers to manage as well.

<-- from Maggie's thoughts managing her juice for the upcoming battle, Book 2 Text 13

Then he raised his head. He looked around. There were three Warlords, two heavies, sixty-two infantry, and sixteen archery left in this hex. There were no Casters, no flyers, no Archons.
And there in the adjoining hex stood Jetstone's finest units, with multiple Casters and Warlords. A formula for catastrophic collapse. His contingency plans...
He stood up, with some effort. His wounds were an unpleasant distraction. "Ford!" he grunted.
Captain Ford trotted up and saluted. "Chief!"
"Cut through the trees to the back of the column, and march forward all the top units," Ansom ordered. Ford was the Warlord for this, a forest-capable ranger. "Leave a minimal rearguard, and pack this hex tight with the best we've got."
---
In less than an hour, it was war as Ansom knew it again. His vague dread had been borne out, and his preparations validated. It wasn't something he could even smile about.
The Coalition was on its turn, for some inexplicable reason. And his Mistress was in peril. He got brief word from Gobwin Knob, but nothing actionable. With zero move, they were stuck here. But at least they were strong. He organized a stack of heavies and high-level pikers for himself, and mounted the only Spidew. He did not know if there would be a battle to direct, but he felt ready.

<-- from Ansom's thoughts after Wanda left him behind when striking Spacerock, Book 2 Text 19

There were only fourteen heavies and one other warlord left here. On the road behind them stood six hundred nine of the column's remaining thousand and fifty infantry. Not enough for any hope of victory. These troops had only been meant as an occupation force at the captured Jetstone capital.

<-- from Captain Ford's thoughts after Ansom was captured, Book 2 Text 22

What I can guess/expect from all this (maybe I'm wrong) is that Charlie has no troops in GK battlespace, not all archons are with Wanda (they have some of them in GK to protect the surrounds and some probably doing the scouting missions hundreds of hexes away) and that GK should have about 5 times the amount of troops that marched against Spacerock to protect their 15 cities (and probably the biggest amount of those forces is in GK). Might not be impressive, but I'm sure it's not too weak either.

[zilfallon]

Good observation, Not Me. I was looking for some of the references you pointed out, but couldn't find them anyway, then i saw your post and felt englightened So yes, GK's defences shouldn't be weak. At least they'll be enough for an air-force i assume. And uh there Stanley you know. If the Queen Dumb does something as stupid as coming close to Gobwin Knob, it will be Faq's end. Let's not forget that Stanley is really, really, really good in action. But I doubt even Jillian is stupid enough to do such a mistake. But indeed, if she continiues tagging GK cities, Stanley will be mad. And when he sees that his casters and CWL are missing, he'll be even madder, and might go on a rampage and just croak Jillian and her fleet.