Book 2 – Page 48

[Ansan Gotti]

The point is, Tram can counter impossible moves, by preventing any moves. And just like the easy counter to the Bogroll deception, all it would take is a single sentence:
"All casters and archers fire."

That is NOT established in any way, shape or form. Parson's plan is not dependent upon them calling for parley, it is merely assisted by them calling for parley. Wanda has the plan and can almost certainly invoke it at any time, it would be more chaotic and less efficient, no doubt, but we know from Jack's plan and also Tramennis' thought process that the process of eliminating the entire force in the airspace will take quite a while. So she could still respond, albeit less effectively.

Your "solution" also does not take into account two huge factors. First, the "GK is still a threat and we have now lost our leverage to negotiate" issue that has been raised many times before, as you know. Second, the fact that it would REQUIRE the Royals to act completely out of character. Their way is to negotiate first, even if only a sham negotiation, and to attack without warning would violate their Royal code of honor. Now, Parson thinks this code is stupid and perhaps you do as well, but the reality is that people tend to act according to their character, and expecting them to act otherwise is probably quite a bit more unreasonable than expecting them to act accordingly.

[zilfallon]

The point is, Tram can counter impossible moves, by preventing any moves. And just like the easy counter to the Bogroll deception, all it would take is a single sentence:
"All casters and archers fire."

That is NOT established in any way, shape or form. Parson's plan is not dependent upon them calling for parley, it is merely assisted by them calling for parley. Wanda has the plan and can almost certainly invoke it at any time, it would be more chaotic and less efficient, no doubt, but we know from Jack's plan and also Tramennis' thought process that the process of eliminating the entire force in the airspace will take quite a while. So she could still respond, albeit less effectively.

Your "solution" also does not take into account two huge factors. First, the "GK is still a threat and we have now lost our leverage to negotiate" issue that has been raised many times before, as you know. Second, the fact that it would REQUIRE the Royals to act completely out of character. Their way is to negotiate first, even if only a sham negotiation, and to attack without warning would violate their Royal code of honor. Now, Parson thinks this code is stupid and perhaps you do as well, but the reality is that people tend to act according to their character, and expecting them to act otherwise is probably quite a bit more unreasonable than expecting them to act accordingly.

Tram believes Jetstone is screwed in long term, but Parson himself said that they're screwed if Wanda dies. And even if parley isn't essential for Parson's plan, i'm sure croaking everything in the airspace instantly would prevent his plan.

Now, it's true that it might be a bit out of character for royals, but i never saw Tram as someone who'd risk this much just to be "noble".

[Ansan Gotti]

Tram believes Jetstone is screwed in long term, but Parson himself said that they're screwed if Wanda dies. And even if parley isn't essential for Parson's plan, i'm sure croaking everything in the airspace instantly would prevent his plan.

Again, you (and Oberon) are under a MAJOR misimpression that is flatly contradicted by the text if you think Jetstone can simply snap its fingers, "croaking everything in the airspace instantly".

"He slowed his mount to a walk and squinted upward. There were a lot of them up there. A lot of heavies and a lot of warlords. He winced to see Ossomer among them. This would be a long fight, though not a difficult one."

http://www.erfworld.com/book-2-archive/ ... -06-20.png

Jack also indicated that Wanda could extend the already-long process by decrypting everything that fell, to the point where Jack thought they could even survive, albeit crippled.

Parson's plan is better, however, and again, even if the Royals attacked immediately and without warning (badly going against character and destroying any chance they might have had to use the endangered forces as a bargaining chip), Wanda still could have reacted. Your (and Oberon's) entire premise is flawed, from everything that I can see.

[CelebrenIthil]

I would add in the list of reasons why Jetstone is hesitant to nuke Wanda and GK's forces, that Trem is facing one of his decrypted brothers (and got another one spirited away by Jillian but still under Wanda's power).
At first he thought they were but mere puppets but as does not need retelling we saw he got convinced otherwise, and he got a glimpse of hope about turning them back.

I can't tell for sure what's going on in his heart of hearts and he sure can't allow it to show too much but I'm certain that situation is something that would shake pretty much anyone's resolve to wipe the enemy troops.
I think I would try to avoid killing my "mind-controlled" siblings too, even if it isn't the most surefire move.
Love tends to override logic, such is the weakness of having a heart. <: )

[Oberon]

The point is, Tram can counter impossible moves, by preventing any moves. And just like the easy counter to the Bogroll deception, all it would take is a single sentence:
"All casters and archers fire."

This would require Tram to know in advance that said impossible move is going to happen.

I put impossible in italics, because it's not really impossible. Parson doesn't do the impossible, he just does things that thousands of people who were popped, lived, and decayed on Erfworld cannot think to do until he shows them. There is no way to know that the impossible is going to happen. But there is a certain amount of credulity involved when you are holding a discussion with a trickster deity and not expecting that you might be being tricked. "All casters and archers fire" is a very tidy way to keep from being tricked. Unless you are holding the idiot ball, that is.

Again, you (and Oberon) are under a MAJOR misimpression that is flatly contradicted by the text if you think Jetstone can simply snap its fingers, "croaking everything in the airspace instantly".

Can we agree that the GK forces would be dead a lot faster if the Jetstone forces were allowed to do what they do best, rather than most of them standing by watching Tram hold the idiot ball?

Their way is to negotiate first, even if only a sham negotiation, and to attack without warning would violate their Royal code of honor.

Even an honorable opponent is able to fight back if attacked. Slately would have started the full attack. The guy holding the idiot ball countermanded Slately, because he thinks he isn't being tricked by the trickster deity.

[Ansan Gotti]

No one makes the "optimal" (from an omniscient point-of-view) decision all of the time. In contrast, people routinely make mistakes, ranging from small to large, based upon their character and the information available to them at the time. Quoting Hatu from earlier in the thread, "I think there has to be room for Tram to make legitimate mistakes without it being the result of the idiot ball." And that is not even conceding that it's a "mistake" from what Tramennis has to work with.

Your failure to recognize this, instead continuing to insist that Tramennis is an idiot despite the clear indications in the text that he's a witty conversationalist, a canny thinker, and a master diplomat, even as you completely ignore repeatedly raised points such as the character of Royals and the removal of the bargaining chip in their possession, leads me to believe you are not really interested in a good faith discussion.

[multilis]

Trem's goal is helping Jetstone to win or survive, *not* croaking GK.

Trem faces threats of Charlie and Hagar.

Trem knows Charlie wants GK stopped.

So thinking that GK is weaker now, he saw the best way to meet his goals as diplomat, which he does best... let your enemies deal with each other and stay out if it when possible. He makes deal with GK, Charlie still fights GK and Jetstone is better off.

He doesn't know that his side is likely about to be destroyed by GK, Charlie knew but didn't tell him. Charlie seems to be playing game to let Jetstone get wiped but Trem survive as heir, because that seems better option than telling Jetstone too much, and then having them wonder how he knows and risk world turning into coalition against Charlie.

[Oberon]

[...] instead continuing to insist that Tramennis is an idiot despite the clear indications in the text that he's a witty conversationalist, a canny thinker, and a master diplomat, [...]

Oh, the irony... It is exactly because of the build up of Tram as being so very clever that I am disliking the way he is acting now. Please take another look! The guy who saw the reason behind the flash attack, who Ossomer asked "Do you ever tire of being right?", it's that same guy who is watching Parson's plan unfold without a single thought that there is anything going on that may not be what it seems to be. Yes, Tram is holding the idiot ball, and it's all the more a shame because we've been told by the author this this is "a witty conversationalist, a canny thinker, and a master diplomat."

cannily - presciently: with foresight;

I'm not seeing any of that here. Are you?

[zilfallon]

No one makes the "optimal" (from an omniscient point-of-view) decision all of the time. In contrast, people routinely make mistakes, ranging from small to large, based upon their character and the information available to them at the time. Quoting Hatu from earlier in the thread, "I think there has to be room for Tram to make legitimate mistakes without it being the result of the idiot ball." And that is not even conceding that it's a "mistake" from what Tramennis has to work with.

Your failure to recognize this, instead continuing to insist that Tramennis is an idiot despite the clear indications in the text that he's a witty conversationalist, a canny thinker, and a master diplomat, even as you completely ignore repeatedly raised points such as the character of Royals and the removal of the bargaining chip in their possession, leads me to believe you are not really interested in a good faith discussion.

I, myself, believed Tram to be a capable leader with brains. But this recent event is just too big of a failure to be called a mere "mistake". That's what i find odd, that's why i said that i believed Tram isn't being himself.

Also, a chief warlord must try to make the optimal decision all the time. Such a responsibility has no room for selfishness. Remember Parson's words;

I'm in command. My responsibility is for the lives of the people under my command, no matter how many enemies I have to destroy to protect them. And even if I have to sacrifice some to save most. That's how war works.

[multilis]

[...] instead continuing to insist that Tramennis is an idiot despite the clear indications in the text that he's a witty conversationalist, a canny thinker, and a master diplomat, [...]

Oh, the irony... It is exactly because of the build up of Tram as being so very clever that I am disliking the way he is acting now. Please take another look! The guy who saw the reason behind the flash attack, who Ossomer asked "Do you ever tire of being right?", it's that same guy who is watching Parson's plan unfold without a single thought that there is anything going on that may not be what it seems to be. Yes, Tram is holding the idiot ball, and it's all the more a shame because we've been told by the author this this is "a witty conversationalist, a canny thinker, and a master diplomat."

"The guy who saw the reason behind the flash attack" Trem's weakness is in "lateral thinking". The flash mob, etc were standard (clever) tactics, just like the donut of doom that Vinny could figure out.

Trem has not yet adapted to cheats of normal rule that only yellow Dragons can hurt someone outside of zone.

Trem is clever by conventional thinking similar to Ansom at times, his *dad* with more experience, instinctive feel is actually better at sensing the lateral thinking risks, but also more saddled with royal bias.

Lots of us have made the mistake in games like chess of seeing the enemy almost in checkmate but being blind that enemy can surprise checkmate you a bit faster.

[Ansan Gotti]

I, myself, believed Tram to be a capable leader with brains. But this recent event is just too big of a failure to be called a mere "mistake". That's what i find odd, that's why i said that i believed Tram isn't being himself.

But what you and Oberon are trotting out as a "solution" (all they have to do is fire immediately, which will still take time and go against character and eliminate their potential bargaining chip) is nothing of the sort, as I have established from the text. You are ignoring this point. How do you respond?

it's that same guy who is watching Parson's plan unfold without a single thought that there is anything going on that may not be what it seems to be.

You have already been answered on this, it is impossible to prepare for the truly unexpected. Like defending against someone teleporting into Fort Knox.

[zilfallon]

I, myself, believed Tram to be a capable leader with brains. But this recent event is just too big of a failure to be called a mere "mistake". That's what i find odd, that's why i said that i believed Tram isn't being himself.

But what you and Oberon are trotting out as a "solution" (all they have to do is fire immediately, which will still take time and go against character and eliminate their potential bargaining chip) is nothing of the sort, as I have established from the text. You are ignoring this point. How do you respond?

Can we agree that the GK forces would be dead a lot faster if the Jetstone forces were allowed to do what they do best, rather than most of them standing by watching Tram hold the idiot ball?

[Ansan Gotti]

Can we agree that the GK forces would be dead a lot faster if the Jetstone forces were allowed to do what they do best, rather than most of them standing by watching Tram hold the idiot ball?

This is not an answer, as it ignores the TWO SPECIFIC ISSUES I have raised repeatedly, namely the complete going against Royal (and diplomat Tramennnis') character, and the elimination of the bargaining chip.

I also think CelebrenIthil's point has merit, which is to say love and emotion absolutely play roles here. This is not a story of emotionless robots making the omniscient best choice every time, it is about rich, vivid characters who act accordingly.

[zilfallon]

Can we agree that the GK forces would be dead a lot faster if the Jetstone forces were allowed to do what they do best, rather than most of them standing by watching Tram hold the idiot ball?

This is not an answer, as it ignores the TWO SPECIFIC ISSUES I have raised repeatedly, namely the complete going against Royal (and diplomat Tramennnis') character, and the elimination of the bargaining chip.

I also think CelebrenIthil's point has merit, which is to say love and emotion absolutely play roles here. This is not a story of emotionless robots making the omniscient best choice every time, it is about rich, vivid characters who act accordingly.

Even an honorable opponent is able to fight back if attacked. Slately would have started the full attack. The guy holding the idiot ball countermanded Slately, because he thinks he isn't being tricked by the trickster deity.

Love and emotion DO play a role. That's what i'm saying. Tram is being selfish. He is acting like a retard because he's curious about Hamster. His selfish curiosity endangers his entire side. Also, going against nobility? Royalty doesn't prevent royals from retaliating to an enemy who started croaking your troops during a parley, as demonstrated by King Slately. Sure, it might be a bit less honorable from a certain point of view, but even so, they'll have an excuse: "we wanted peace but they attacked us "

And about the bargain chip and "diplomacy specialist":

He's good at diplomacy, but believing that what he's good at can solve EVERY SINGLE SITUATION and trying NOTHING but diplomacy, is arrogance. Most leaders have points they're better than avarage. But if they think that the area of their expertise is enought solve everything, that's arrogance.

[Ansan Gotti]

Love and emotion DO play a role. That's what i'm saying. Tram is being selfish. He is acting like a retard because he's curious about Hamster. His selfish curiosity endangers his entire side. Also, going against nobility? Royalty doesn't prevent royals from retaliating to an enemy who started croaking your troops during a parley, as demonstrated by King Slately.

And about the bargain chip and "diplomacy specialist":

He's good at diplomacy, but believing that what he's good at can solve EVERY SINGLE SITUATION and trying NOTHING but diplomacy, is arrogance. Most leaders have points they're better than avarage. But if they think that the area of their expertise is enought solve everything, that's arrogance.

He IS retaliating, he ISN'T just trying diplomacy, he's simply LIMITING his retaliation to eliminate only the opponent's threatening units. This is a turn-based world, in Tramennis' mind he has all the time he needs, he has already stated his reasoning explicitly, that Parson is just acting out and trying to rattle him (as Charlie's dossier probably indicated, given the extensive psyops he conducted against RCC I), but that he is eventually going to have to come to terms. There is simply no other option in Tramennis' mind, a side taking a zone off-turn is as outrageous as a guy stopping time in our world, or taking off into the air flying under his own power.

He's doing the best he can under the circumstances and knowledge before him. But he is simply outclassed. That doesn't make Tramennis an idiot; it makes Parson brilliant.

As for Tramennis being selfish, I think it's gotten far beyond the "satisfy his curiosity" point. People are complex and have multiple motivations. Of course he is curious about Parson, but his primary driver is to see the best result for Jetstone, and he earnestly believes this course is best. And again, given the circumstances and knowledge before him, I do not believe he is being unreasonable. In another circumstance, Parson would probably JUMP at the chance for some form of negotiation, he has always loved negotiation as it gives him another possible edge. This time, however, he has an exploit in mind and so Tramennis is in trouble.

[Oberon]

I, myself, believed Tram to be a capable leader with brains. But this recent event is just too big of a failure to be called a mere "mistake". That's what i find odd, that's why i said that i believed Tram isn't being himself.

But what you and Oberon are trotting out as a "solution" (all they have to do is fire immediately, which will still take time and go against character and eliminate their potential bargaining chip) is nothing of the sort, as I have established from the text. You are ignoring this point. How do you respond?

Please don't claim that I'm ignoring things to which I have already responded. Slately was very willing to "go against character" (a point on which we'll just have to disagree) and call for the general killing of the GK forces. The guy with the idiot ball countermanded him. And really, are you going to continue to argue that always sticking to the same, predictable behavior is smart? Wouldn't you rather think that the smart guy is the one who changes the formula and throws off the enemy calculations?
Time? Irrelevant. You have to begin an attack to finish it.
Bargaining chip? Another idiot ball moment for Tram, as I've said a dozen or so times previously. A Toolist won't give up a tool in a bargain.

it's that same guy who is watching Parson's plan unfold without a single thought that there is anything going on that may not be what it seems to be.

You have already been answered on this, it is impossible to prepare for the truly unexpected. Like defending against someone teleporting into Fort Knox.

And you have been answered on this just as well. It is impossible to teleport into Fort Knox. It is not impossible to drop crap on the atrium roof, or to promote riders to heavies. Or, even though I'm getting ahead of the story, to decrypt dead units. Hell, even when Parson enters Jetstone through the MK, he isn't doing the impossible, because Tram and Slately just read that he can enter the MK. All it takes now is "a witty conversationalist, a canny thinker, and a master diplomat" to connect the dots between "Parson can enter the MK and live" and "hey, that means he can come here!"

[zilfallon]

And come on...How can Tram believe that GK would agree to peace? Jetstone knows that GK is ruled by fanatics who believe they're destined to destroy royalty and rule the entire Erfworld using 4 Arkentools. Usual reply to this: "But Tram is doing the best he can: diplomacy" Yes but he shouldn't be dumb enough to believe that what he does best will ALWAYS get him out of the mess.

And I already replied to that "bargaining chip" a few pages ago, but it seems you just ignored it and said that i'm the one ignoring your question. And you really replied to Oberon saying that he's doing the best he can, the "usual reply" i mentioned which doesn't answer this at all.

And now that it's mentioned above...

Tram figured that they'll be dropping crap, so WHY THE HELL did he order all infantry BELOW yellow dwagons? That's a moment of blue screen, no logical explanation putting troops below yellow dwagons known to drop acidic crap. And they know about decryption too...

[Trotsky]

Has anyone considered that Tram is out right lying when he gives his reasons for behaving the way he is? I mean, there is an enemy unit sitting right there where he can hear them? Even now, Tram might have somebody preparing to shower the Atrium area with sandwiches and setting up a tea table next to the MK portal (with one extra large and one extra small chair, of course). Now that would be uncanny foresight!

Another note, Parson had been less then optimistic about the chances of taking Spacerock once Jetstone had consolidated their forces. Of course, they now would not have to contend with Jillian's forces and will be starting from the garrison instead of the airspace, but I can't imagine this is as cut and dry as we on the forum tend to make it out. Oh, and before you quote the probability of the fast in burn the city approach, please remember that he calculated that when a significant portion of their forces were out in the field and the numbers given are likely no longer applicable. Of course, most of team crazy feel the plan is going to be a smashing, unstoppable success, but Parson himself sounds a tad less confident. I don't think this is going to be as simple as light the tower on fire and roast some marshmallows. In fact, I think the most interesting result would be if this ended up being a near stalemate with both sides trying to figure out who actually won.

[Kyrt]

Please... Parson's "gambit" in TBfGK could have been foiled with a single sentence from an Archon:
"Ansom, that is a veiled Twoll, and not Parson at all."
Don't try to position this as some kind of mechanical brilliance when said brilliance could be countered by a single spoken sentence.
And don't tell me that Parson knew that the RCC wasn't paying for spell security, either... That is totally unsupported.

Yes. But the reason it worked was because Bogroll could move from Tower to airspace. That can't happen here.

Yes, anticipated actions. Which lead to unanticipated results. Tram knows that this is the kind of results that someone who beat 25:1 odds is capable of, he knows that looking closer should be mandatory this time. He is instead holding the idiot ball, by expecting the expected and refusing to anticipate anything but the possible.

There is a limit. Expect the impossible and you have to ask yourself...where to stop? As it is, Parson uncroaked a Volcano. Fine Unorthodox tactics...he created a multi hex dirtamancy trap - but still within the rules. WHat he did there WASN'T impossible....just difficult and requiring the right set of circumstances.

What Parson is doing in JS is something considered impossible by its denizens...off turn movement.

GK was creative use of gameplay mechanics. JS is exploiting a loophole in the rules.

I'll remind you that Fort Knox is no longer just a protector of bullion. And also that bullion is no longer a direct backing for the US dollar. You are making the same mistake as Tram, and are granting a lot more credibility to the supposed impregnability of "the fort" AND to the supposed consequences of any hypothetical raid on the resources there than may be warranted.

So...the anti-teleporter defences are something you think should be fitted.

Regardless of your overly literal reading, I think the point stands. You can plan to be as flexible as possible if the unexpected happens, but you cannot plan beforehand for what is literally impossible.

You are saying Tram is dumb because he isn't expecting Parson to whisk the moon from its orbit and smash it into the city; he's dumb because he isn't preparing for the assault where Parson sinks the land beneath the waves. You say he should be preparing for the impossible....when he can't. Noone can. All that you can do is hope that if the unexpected occurs, that you react well enough to deal with it. This isn't even a case where Tram could be preparing for an unlikely but potentially devastating assault. You would have him act smart by preparing for an assault that is considered literally impossible.

Right now, Tram is acting smart. Hes making the correct responses to Parsons moves. He wants to parley, he wants info, he wants a deal...and all for very good reasons. He has a vested interest in NOT blowing GKs forces to pieces. He would win the battle, but he is still looking forward to a long disastrous war which he doesn't know he'll win.

So - he can anticipate that Parson may try something unexpected and how he reacts to it over the NEXT few pages will determine whether hes seen as smart or dumb. Right now...hes acting smart. He isn't mindlessly blowing the dwagons up because he wants a parley. He's prevented the yellows bombing the tower. Hes evacuated the atrium to preserve his ground forces.

What else can he do?

Given his priorities....not a thing. He COULD blow GK away...but he wants, even needs, that parley. That need that would save their
future is what is going to damn their present.

But a simple question....what would you do to prepare for Parson?

[Ansan Gotti]

Please don't claim that I'm ignoring things to which I have already responded. Slately was very willing to "go against character" (a point on which we'll just have to disagree) and call for the general killing of the GK forces. The guy with the idiot ball countermanded him.

Yes, but only after they started the negotiation. So they are free to attack. But Tramennis, from his point-of-view, still does not see the benefit to attacking immediately (especially given the friendly fire issue which Slately, upon reflection, appears to agree with), and given what he knows, I don't think his point-of-view is unreasonable. This is besides the point, however, as you have been advocating for an immediate attack even prior to the start of the negotiation, which is against character for the Jetstones (and probably most Royals).

And really, are you going to continue to argue that always sticking to the same, predictable behavior is smart? Wouldn't you rather think that the smart guy is the one who changes the formula and throws off the enemy calculations?

It would have been more predictable for Jetstone to attack immediately as Slately wanted, frankly. Tramennis is more subtle, however, and is trying a different tack. Again, if not for the fact that this plays right into Parson's plan, it could have been a good idea.

Time? Irrelevant. You have to begin an attack to finish it.

There is no rush to begin the attack in Tramennis' mind: this is a turn-based game! Only with the benefit of knowing Parson's thoughts do we know that something else is afoot.

Bargaining chip? Another idiot ball moment for Tram, as I've said a dozen or so times previously. A Toolist won't give up a tool in a bargain.

As has been raised before, Parson is known to be an innovative thinker and he might not be as adamant as Stanley would be. He's not going to know until he interacts with Parson! And again, the deal outlined by Tramennis was an opening offer. Maybe there was some compromise that would have satisfied both parties. Heck, I'm not convinced that Parson WOULDN'T have been interested in a good faith negotiation, but for the fact that he came up with the exploit!

And you have been answered on this just as well. It is impossible to teleport into Fort Knox. It is not impossible to drop crap on the atrium roof, or to promote riders to heavies. Or, even though I'm getting ahead of the story, to decrypt dead units. Hell, even when Parson enters Jetstone through the MK, he isn't doing the impossible, because Tram and Slately just read that he can enter the MK. All it takes now is "a witty conversationalist, a canny thinker, and a master diplomat" to connect the dots between "Parson can enter the MK and live" and "hey, that means he can come here!"

We are moving into the realm of difference of opinion here, but I think you're simply expecting far too much of Tramennis or any Erfer to be able to connect the dots such that they discern a plan that goes against the most fundamental assumptions of their worldview. In a turn-based world, off-turn tactics are going to be opaque. Especially if Erfers are of limited initiative, imagination and innovation as has been theorized earlier by several.