Book 2 – Parson’s Klog 003

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Re: Book 2 – Parson’s Klog 003

Postby GaryThunder » Mon Dec 13, 2010 10:17 pm

The hobgobwin-mounted dwagons in the Klog art certainly look like they're straining to stay afloat...at least one does, anyway. I think a slow fall will occur. But it never occurred to me that these slowly-falling units could shield the faster-falling ones with their living dwagons...if the dwagons croak, well, same deal, right? That's slick. Something worthy of Parson, I think, as much as he hates to admit it.

And I don't see why everyone's picking on Tramennis about not seeing an exploit like this coming. Remember, this entire trick would be worthless if he didn't have Wanda there to Decrypt the fallen dwagons. (We think.) There's a reason nobody's used this plan before - it's idiotic unless Decryption is available. Without it, GK might successfully land a dozen or so warlords and a couple dozen knights, or whatever the force deployment is, and maybe a couple of casters. They couldn't hope to take the city. So Tramennis probably wouldn't realize this because:

1. Nobody would ever have thought to use such a tactic, because even if they were lateral enough thinkers to consider it, it would be relentlessly stupid pre-Decryption, and
2. Tramennis, smart though he is, doesn't appear to have given much thought to the tactical aspects of Decryption, treating it as just witchery. He wasn't even CW until this morning - why would he devote himself to military strategy when diplomacy is his forte and Ossomer's got the military wheel anyway? Only Parson seems to have really thought about it.
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Re: Book 2 – Parson’s Klog 003

Postby cheeseaholic » Mon Dec 13, 2010 10:20 pm

FaustiiGoethe wrote:I think Parson will use the slow falling hobgowins as a shield for the already fallen decrypted knights/humans/warlords.
That way he can:
- Protect the decrypted units with living units.
- Give time to Wanda, so she can decrypt more units and heal herself (and Jack).

And if the hobgowins croack, Wanda can decrypt them too.

Its cheating, its unfair, and most of them will croack anyway.


I was wondering how they'd land the dragons on living units. The living units charge (unless the warloards in there are complete idiots) and the slowly falling dragons aim and land on them. The time difference in falling allows that to happen, as opposed to everyone hitting and getting up and fighting for their lives immediately.
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Re: Book 2 – Parson’s Klog 003

Postby teratorn » Tue Dec 14, 2010 2:19 am

cheeseaholic wrote:I was wondering how they'd land the dragons on living units. The living units charge (unless the warloards in there are complete idiots) and the slowly falling dragons aim and land on them.


The area has been evacuated.
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Re: Book 2 – Parson’s Klog 003

Postby Meiji_man » Tue Dec 14, 2010 2:20 am

It just occurred to me that Parson made a mistake....
Spoiler: show
He should have doubled up a Hob with Wanda and Jack. THEN promoted them to heavy. Thus allowing Wanda and Jack to float down. Instead of having to off their mounts and gamble.
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Re: Book 2 – Parson’s Klog 003

Postby ╒╦╧╬╩╦╦╛ » Tue Dec 14, 2010 2:25 am

Meiji_man wrote:It just occurred to me that Parson made a mistake....
He should have doubled up a Hob with Wanda and Jack. THEN promoted them to heavy. Thus allowing Wanda and Jack to float down. Instead of having to off their mounts and gamble.



For some reason I have a feeling that Parson is not gambling the life of his most valuable asset in this battle. I realy don't have a clue how it could not be a gamble, but that would just be a bit out of character for him and I doubt such a thing would have left Jack with the feeling that they are going to win no matter what.

Maybe dead dwagons will cushion their falls?
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Re: Book 2 – Parson’s Klog 003

Postby GaryThunder » Tue Dec 14, 2010 2:37 am

Maybe dead dwagons will cushion their falls?


This, to me, seems to be the only way that this plan makes sense. If they didn't, then most of the warlords on the mounts are almost certainly Decrypted, if they die or are incapacitated, they're useless. A few dozen dwagons without leadership, especially without their CW bonus, even given Wanda's huge Decrypted bonus, are simply not going to be able to take Jetstone's garrison. There might be a few stragglers, like poor Barry, but I think the riders will probably hit the ground mostly intact. Parson would never institute a plan that would effectively cause Wanda to plummet to the ground unprotected, and even if he did I don't think even Wanda believes in Fate so hard she's convinced she'll walk away from a 300-foot fall.
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Re: Book 2 – Parson’s Klog 003

Postby Atomic » Tue Dec 14, 2010 3:21 am

The one thing most everybody seems to forget (regardless of how often it's mentioned ;) ) is one of the smaller details of the Banana-Experiment... Parson didn't take damage when Banana crash landed; he took damage when he rolled off of Banana. While falling/damage may go hand-in-hand, we have no reason to assume the riders of the mounts will take any damage if they stay on the Dwagons when they crash.
The ground came up, and Banana squashed into it, face first. The impact was hard enough that Parson was thrown out of the saddle and rolled on the bricks twice. As he lay in a heap, the nearby pikers immediately scrambled to his aid.

The dwagon roared angrily, and took off into the sky, leaving a steaming pile of acidic battlecrap on the pavement.

Parson sat up, with some pain. He had scraped up his hands, elbow and forehead fairly badly. A dozen concerned pikers were standing in a circle looking down.
Emphasis mine.
To me, it seems like everyone (short of Barry) should be fine as long as they hold on/tie themselves onto their Dwagons... But that's just a theory...Nothing proven...Not Word of Titans...Trends and all.
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Re: Book 2 – Parson’s Klog 003

Postby GaryThunder » Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:38 am

To me, it seems like everyone (short of Barry) should be fine as long as they hold on/tie themselves onto their Dwagons... But that's just a theory...Nothing proven...Not Word of Titans...Trends and all.


Makes sense to me. Besides, Parson is only level 2 and still not particularly fit; this is pure speculation, but higher level units, warlords and knights (let alone heavies) can probably take a harder fall without serious damage. Ansom certainly weathered his fall onto GK's wall without much trouble, but he's level 10 and the Mathamancy might have just worked out in his favor. Eh, that's why they call it speculation.
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Re: Book 2 – Parson’s Klog 003

Postby Sieggy » Tue Dec 14, 2010 8:48 am

That's why GKs only possible chance of winning consists of a decapitation strike, which was Parson's plan all along. They simply don't have the forces necessary to take something the size of Orthanc, even with decryption. Either you take out the leadership by whatever means necessary or you inevitably get eaten alive by their superior numbers. Whatever Parson does has to be fast, dirty, tricky, and extremely well focused on specific targets.
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Re: Book 2 – Parson’s Klog 003

Postby cheeseaholic » Tue Dec 14, 2010 11:11 am

teratorn wrote:
cheeseaholic wrote:I was wondering how they'd land the dragons on living units. The living units charge (unless the warloards in there are complete idiots) and the slowly falling dragons aim and land on them.


The area has been evacuated.


No, the order has been given to evacuate it. Somehow I don't think Parson waited several minutes to order the food fight.
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Re: Book 2 – Parson’s Klog 003

Postby effataigus » Tue Dec 14, 2010 11:22 am

Meiji_man wrote:It just occurred to me that Parson made a mistake....
Spoiler: show
He should have doubled up a Hob with Wanda and Jack. THEN promoted them to heavy. Thus allowing Wanda and Jack to float down. Instead of having to off their mounts and gamble.


I've heard this same line of reasoning used to argue that riding an overloaded dwagon doesn't cushion the fall at all.

Given that we have strong evidence that Parson is the perfect warlord with perfect strategy, and only very weak evidence to suggest that overloaded dwagons and their riders don't take falling damage...

Of course, a third possibility is that Parson has some other unexpected way to get Wanda and Jack to ground without risk.
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Re: Book 2 – Parson’s Klog 003

Postby Lamech » Tue Dec 14, 2010 11:25 am

Meiji_man wrote:It just occurred to me that Parson made a mistake....
Spoiler: show
He should have doubled up a Hob with Wanda and Jack. THEN promoted them to heavy. Thus allowing Wanda and Jack to float down. Instead of having to off their mounts and gamble.
Spoiler: show
There are a number of possiblities. 1) The slow fall is just as bad. Parson got lucky or the natural shockamancy for falls never got placed into Parson. 2) There is a hobo on the dwagon with Jack and Wanda, and to make the scene cooler it wasn't included. 3) Wanda did something useful with her omni-mancy and cast feather fall on herself or made herself a heavy or something. 4) Dwagons falling? Did you fail your spot check? Its all foolamancy. When Jetstone fills the atrium with everything they have, the yellows will fill the exits with crap. Then we note that the green dwagon breath also sinks, and crap is flamable...
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Re: Book 2 – Parson’s Klog 003

Postby effataigus » Tue Dec 14, 2010 11:28 am

Sieggy wrote:That's why GKs only possible chance of winning consists of a decapitation strike, which was Parson's plan all along. They simply don't have the forces necessary to take something the size of Orthanc, even with decryption. Either you take out the leadership by whatever means necessary or you inevitably get eaten alive by their superior numbers. Whatever Parson does has to be fast, dirty, tricky, and extremely well focused on specific targets.


JS's numbers don't count for much against the pliers!
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Re: Book 2 – Parson’s Klog 003

Postby Lamech » Tue Dec 14, 2010 11:36 am

Sieggy wrote:That's why GKs only possible chance of winning consists of a decapitation strike, which was Parson's plan all along. They simply don't have the forces necessary to take something the size of Orthanc, even with decryption. Either you take out the leadership by whatever means necessary or you inevitably get eaten alive by their superior numbers. Whatever Parson does has to be fast, dirty, tricky, and extremely well focused on specific targets.
Can't win against the pliers unless you can kill more than one enemy for every unit you lose. Otherwise you simply make your enemy more powerful.
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Re: Book 2 – Parson’s Klog 003

Postby effataigus » Tue Dec 14, 2010 11:40 am

Whoa Lamech... double-jinx!
GaryThunder wrote: Tramennis, smart though he is, doesn't appear to have given much thought to the tactical aspects of Decryption, treating it as just witchery. He wasn't even CW until this morning - why would he devote himself to military strategy when diplomacy is his forte and Ossomer's got the military wheel anyway? Only Parson seems to have really thought about it.

I'm pro-Tram here, but suggesting that Tram hasn't given much thought to the implications of his enemy's most overwhelming strategic advantage is not helping his case!
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Re: Book 2 – Parson’s Klog 003

Postby build6 » Tue Dec 14, 2010 1:30 pm

cheeseaholic wrote:No, the order has been given to evacuate it. Somehow I don't think Parson waited several minutes to order the food fight.


agreed.

then again, I'll bet (duke antium notwithstanding :-) the people in there are pretty eager to leave once the opportunity arises (I mean, come on, acidic dwagon cwap coming down from the ceiling and melting limbs off...), so who knows they might clear out real quick :-)

anyways, re: lack of consideration of the effect of decrypt and the pliers - a) I've always thought it very game-breaking/imbalance, and maybe the erfworlders just can't wrap their minds around it enough, and b) it wasn't until fairly recently that JS knew what was going on at all (when the queen of Unaroyal talked to the decrypted princess). everything's very "new". it's not like they could sit down with Wanda and discuss the limitations etc. of decryption - they would have no idea if decryption is instantaneous or need some special ritual from Wanda that takes time, etc.; I'll bet they don't even know there's no upkeep! It's sort of like (analogy here) the difference between "alright, I'm fighting a zombie army that comes back from the dead if you kill them only once", and "I'm fighting a zombie army that comes back from the dead if you kill them, and for some reason when they come back their guns no longer run out of ammo".

if you're expecting some kind of cost for the enemy in terms of upkeep you'd expect less decryption than there would be in reality...
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Re: Book 2 – Parson’s Klog 003

Postby GaryThunder » Tue Dec 14, 2010 3:12 pm

I'm pro-Tram here, but suggesting that Tram hasn't given much thought to the implications of his enemy's most overwhelming strategic advantage is not helping his case!


I posted a Tramennis rant on the other board. Here it is.

viewtopic.php?f=12&t=1910#p43987

Basically, Tramennis doesn't spend time thinking about military tactics except to give them a good once-over and make sure they're basically sound. Canny, but not paradigm-busting like Parson. While Decryption is hugely tactically important, Tramennis sees the situation as having effectively neutralized it. Even if he considered Jack's plan of reanimating falling mounts and using live mounts as damage sponges to weaken Jetstone's assault, he would surely have concluded, as Jack did, that the assault would still pulverize GK almost to oblivion - and, more importantly to Tramennis, still fail at achieving his primary diplomatic objective.

"But they are still a terribly powerful side. Gobwin Knob could still eventually crush the Coalition, even without the ability to Decrypt our fallen. We could bargain with them in earnest, father."

Tramennis sees GK as locked in the airspace and doesn't consider it further, because nothing in all of his experience in all of the world has given him any reason to do so. If we assume Parson, the Perfect Warlord, is pulling off tricks left and right that nobody in Erfworld had ever so much as considered before - not a bad assumption - then Tramennis really would have no basis of comparison for him. Tramennis has (almost certainly) never, in his entire life, seen such an audacious and out-of-the-box tactic employed, because nobody he's ever encountered has had the right sort of mind to come up with anything like it before. So how could he anticipate and counter it properly?

The situation is rather like a man, cornered in an alley by a bunch of other, more violent men, his every avenue of escape or retribution denied to him...and suddenly he hurls a rope into the sky and climbs up it to safety, suspended on nothing. The mob menacing him isn't stupid for not having thought of him pulling that, they never had any reason to believe such a thing was even possible.
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Re: Book 2 – Parson’s Klog 003

Postby Abnaxis » Tue Dec 14, 2010 4:03 pm

I wonder what's going through the hobgoblins' minds as they plummet...?

I mean, I'm willing to bet they weren't consulted ahead of time. Just one minute flying, one minute heavy.
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Re: Book 2 – Parson’s Klog 003

Postby odoflood » Tue Dec 14, 2010 4:16 pm

So, sorry if this has been brought up before (I didn't read the entire 18-page thread, though I skimmed most of it), but I had two questions/thoughts:

- I believe that harvested dragons will NOT turn into rations at the beginning of the next Gobwin Knob turn. They would do so under normal circumstances, but once they are decrypted, there is no corpse to depop; they have been "popped again," and thus Wanda now controls some dwagons (which will give her significant mobility irrespective of any future affiliation with the Stanley). Any dwagons that Wanda doesn't decrypt will become food, but I think those that she decrypts will be full units until they are croaked again.

- Falling units do not have a .3333 chance of death, .3333 chance of incapacitation and .3333 chance of being fine. The fact that there are three outcomes does not meant that the probability of each outcome happening is equal. If I put a .45 pistol to my head and shoot myself, I may end up either alive or dead, but the odds of being dead are much greater than .5

/end random nonsensical post
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Re: Book 2 – Parson’s Klog 003

Postby peteratjet » Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:10 pm

wonder what's going through the hobgoblins' minds as they plummet...?


I wonder what the last thing going through Barry the Unlucky's mind will be?

... altogether now ...

Spoiler: show
his boots


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