Book 2 – Page 50

[BLANDCorporatio]

... or about 10 seconds real-time

Sure. The end of Jetstone's turn

Not yet

Cute. But did he actually offer Parson any reason to talk?

Maybe he will in the near future, that would be a great thing to do.

It wouldn't have mattered. If he started shooting everyone down, Parson would have just enacted his plan a few seconds earlier. {snip}

Eh wot? What you said there in no way responds to my point that you quote. There was no way for Trem to know that trying to get Parson on the line was fruitless, is what I said.

Erm, yes he did: {snip}

Do I need to quote the full argument from a post of mine on the page previous again? Trem must have known that Parson was not expecting a fair deal. In all the build-up until now, he hasn't made one move to convince Parson otherwise.

[Kyrt]

What I've been repeatedly saying, and you seem to ignore, is that Trem must have known that he needed to do some extra legwork to get Parson talking. Yet, Trem is offering no reasons why Parson should be speaking with him. Despite yapping for an entire page.

He has the airgroup hostage. He wants a non-aggression pact. If GK wants to negotiate....great. But if those aren't good enough reasons, GK will just have to settle for war and the loss of its army, warlords and casters. Has he asked to sepak with Aprson (which is what I think you mean)? No, not yet...but he plans to and there is, as far as he is aware, no hurry in requesting that meeting.

Plus he offers that line (which is not enough) only way, way after the yellows have started pooping the Atrium. Plus he knows that Parson can be dangerous, and instead of limiting that danger - even if he perceives it to be merely from S-Bombs to the Atrium - he makes no urgent move to start the talks. There was a deadline, and he missed it.

Yes...because he didn't know it existed. He didn't make any urgent move to start the talks because there is no urgent tactical need to do so. As for the danger from the S-Bombs...he did as much as he could. He can't shoot them down before parley, he did shoot them down when they attacked and he did move them away from the tower where they would inconvenience the parley and the archers who would be engaging them. As far as he is concerned, the deadline he has to meet is the end of his sides turn. Which will be after he finishes the parley/negotiation or wipes GK out.

You are a clever person, and were told by someone with some information gathering ability that this guy is a dangerous warlord. You know, based on some experience/second-hand accounts, that this is so. Given that, is it smart to believe that that guy just did something to weaken their position? Or is it smarter to assume a rational opponent seeking to maximize advantage?

Doing the only thing he can while he can. Thats the problem...if you rule out the supposedly impossible, Parson CAN'T do anything else. He can't initiate battle. he can't move. He can't flee. GK is a sitting target about all he can do is restack his units. GKs options were that limited. And he just blew the only attack he was acapable of doing minor damage to targets which can't attack him. His alternative was to sit there and do nothing until JS attacked and then die. Sure, it weakeend his positon....it was also the one and only move he could make. Trams certain he'll get all of GKs forces. Parson seems certain as well. Jack thinks some MAY survive if they pull out every trick they have and are lucky.

Your idea that Tram should have been looking for Parsons counter attack is based on the supposition a counter attack was possible. It wasn't...not without beding game rules. Even if there were, Tram dealt with the yellow attack fairly well...he didn't destroy the entire GK force but he doesn't want to do that. We don't know what other contingencies Tram may have planned for. However, from what we know, the yellow attack was probably the one and only action GK would be capable of. None of the other dwagons or units available to GK had anything that could be a threat to JS. No atatcks, no movement. They can't flee, run, hide or attack.

You can assume "a rational opponent seeking to maximize advantage" all you want, but GK is still bound by the same physical laws which Tram knows. And it took an exploit to get around him here. No exploit equals dead GK force. Theres no disagreement on that. Unfortuantely, we don't and can't know what steps Tram took to minimise the unexpected because Parson did the impossible.

[BLANDCorporatio]

He has the airgroup hostage. He wants a non-aggression pact. If GK wants to negotiate....great. But if those aren't good enough reasons, GK will just have to settle for war and the loss of its army, warlords and casters.

I've been told that one reason why Trem would not fire indiscriminately on the airforce (and specifically intending to kill Wanda) was that he desperately wants a settlement. I'd accept that point of view. Given that a parley was, for Trem, a priority, he really should have been more proactive towards that goal.

Doing the only thing he can while he can. Thats the problem...if you rule out the supposedly impossible, Parson CAN'T do anything else. He can't initiate battle. he can't move. He can't flee. GK is a sitting target about all he can do is restack his units.

Are you sure? Meaning, if you were in Trem's shoes, would you be sure?

Rhetorical question, you'll say yes to keep your point. I'll say no, to keep mine: supposedly, Trem was not that experienced a Warlord. AND, with Parson's reputation, some kind of nuisance must have been expected, even if Trem's experience disallows him from seeing it. It's one thing to not foresee that GK actually might have a chance to destroy JS. It's another thing entirely to believe that a supposedly monstrously-competent foe will choose bad moves on a tantrum.

You can assume "a rational opponent seeking to maximize advantage" all you want, but GK is still bound by the same physical laws which Tram knows. And it took an exploit to get around him here. No exploit equals dead GK force. Theres no disagreement on that. Unfortuantely, we don't and can't know what steps Tram took to minimise the unexpected because Parson did the impossible.

That'd be silly on Earth, where we don't know all of physics, and it would be unwise on Erf, where the ruleset still has surprises. See Kingworld.

[DoctorJest]

Erm, yes he did: {snip}

Do I need to quote the full argument from a post of mine on the page previous again? Trem must have known that Parson was not expecting a fair deal. In all the build-up until now, he hasn't made one move to convince Parson otherwise.

Tram also believed, reasonably so, that he was the one holding all the cards. And, for the record, he wasn't exactly planning to offer Parson a fair deal. He was expecting to be able to dictate terms which Parson was in no position to refuse.

Again, I think people are trying to hold Tram responsible for not sharing the omniscience of the reader.

[BLANDCorporatio]

Again, I think people are trying to hold Tram responsible for not sharing the omniscience of the reader.

And I think people are just holding Trem to conflicting standards. Sometimes in the very same people.

I'm under the impression that Trem, while wanting to deal with GK, wants to have a fair deal. An honest deal. Let's not get bogged down in specifics, of course Trem seeks the furthering of JS's cause etc, but he wants/needs (or so I'm told) that parley.

Parson does not expect an honest proposal from Trem, and Trem, without sharing reader omniscience, should know this. And has not acted on this knowledge at all.

Maybe he does, in fact, not realize this. But if that's the case, he really, really should have.

[Kyrt]

I've been told that one reason why Trem would not fire indiscriminately on the airforce (and specifically intending to kill Wanda) was that he desperately wants a settlement. I'd accept that point of view. Given that a parley was, for Trem, a priority, he really should have been more proactive towards that goal.

He had several priorities. He wanted a non-aggression pact. He wanted his brothers back. He had questions about Parson and decryption. And so on.

And he had all the time he needed to ask them. If there is no time limit, if there is no deadline then Tram is free to follow up on his priorities in the order he wants. GK sent Ossomer over to stall Tram....this gave Tram the opportunity to question Ossomer. There was no disadvantage to doing so. There was no advantage to be gained by dismissing the opportunity. And always the possibility that Ossomer would tell him something about Parson that he could put to use in his negotiations.

With no time pressure, the only thing he had to worry about was the possibility GK may attack. Which they can only do via yellows. If they do so, they hit the atrium, which can be repaired, and kill some ground troops...which are, to a degree, expendable. And if they do...he has several options to remove them while still keeping his bargaining hand relatively intact.

[quoteAre you sure? Meaning, if you were in Trem's shoes, would you be sure?[/quote]

The options would be to attack...which can be only yellows...or move...which can't done. The casters can cast spells..which won't harm JS thansk to zoen boundaries. The units can move within the sub zones...but can't hide or move out of range.

Thats the obvious options. The unlikely options that Tram MAY have considered...we don't know about. And won't because Parson didn't use any.
And the impossible options were discarded for obvious reaons.

It's another thing entirely to believe that a supposedly monstrously-competent foe will choose bad moves on a tantrum.

When the only other option is no action?

That'd be silly on Earth, where we don't know all of physics, and it would be unwise on Erf, where the ruleset still has surprises. See Kingworld.

Kingworld was the result of a caster link.

[DoctorJest]

He has the airgroup hostage. He wants a non-aggression pact. If GK wants to negotiate....great. But if those aren't good enough reasons, GK will just have to settle for war and the loss of its army, warlords and casters.

I've been told that one reason why Trem would not fire indiscriminately on the airforce (and specifically intending to kill Wanda) was that he desperately wants a settlement. I'd accept that point of view. Given that a parley was, for Trem, a priority, he really should have been more proactive towards that goal.

I think you greatly overestimate exactly how much time actually passed in the few pages where Tram was speaking to Ossomer. It was less than a minute. And, again, Tram believed he was holding all the cards, and had good reason to believe so. And further, it doesn't appear Parson was monitoring Ossomer's conversation with Tram. Since Ossomer's orders were just to stall. There's an assumption here that ANYTHING Tram said would have made a difference, and I don't really think that's true, since Parson's plan was already in motion by the time the "parley" actually began. So it was already too late from the outset.

That'd be silly on Earth, where we don't know all of physics, and it would be unwise on Erf, where the ruleset still has surprises. See Kingworld.

But this is a world based on a game, where everyone knows the rules. They're just not very good at figuring out how to exploit them. And it is likely something Erfworlders never would have thought of if they hadn't seen Parson pull the volcano trick. It takes someone showing them that such things are possible before they cotton to the idea.

Ever play any RTS games against live opponents? No matter how much you've played the single player game, you'll eventually run across a live player who figures out a sneaky way to break the game (without cheatcodes I mean, just a clever use of the game mechanics beyond what they were intended to do) and completely catches you off guard. Of course, that will work exactly once against you, because you'll then go and delve in and figure out how they did that and learn to combat it (and, of course, do it yourself). No matter how much you believed yourself prepared, no matter how much you understand the rules, someone will come along who sees a creative way to exploit those rules that will catch you off guard no matter how smart you are. If you don't believe that, then you're either kidding yourself and haven't played enough games online vs real opponents, or you are the single greatest computer gamer on earth and obviously have the tournament trophies to prove it.

It's the same thing here. Tram had no way to anticipate this particular situation, and the time from when he realized that shenanigans were happening to the time it was too late to do anything, was a matter of seconds. The trick won't work a second time, as now Erfworlders will learn of the whole "harvest" move exploit, but the fact that no one saw it coming doesn't make them deficient.

[DoctorJest]

Again, I think people are trying to hold Tram responsible for not sharing the omniscience of the reader.

And I think people are just holding Trem to conflicting standards. Sometimes in the very same people.

I'm under the impression that Trem, while wanting to deal with GK, wants to have a fair deal. An honest deal. Let's not get bogged down in specifics, of course Trem seeks the furthering of JS's cause etc, but he wants/needs (or so I'm told) that parley.

Parson does not expect an honest proposal from Trem, and Trem, without sharing reader omniscience, should know this. And has not acted on this knowledge at all.

Maybe he does, in fact, not realize this. But if that's the case, he really, really should have.

Again, he had no reason to believe there was a time limit: his archers could shoot down GK's forces at his leisure. By the time the yellows start attacking, things are in motion and already too late, with the Harvest happening mere seconds later after the attack begins. Things he couldn't have predicted.

His only shooting down the yellows, and not the other colors, was showing GK he wasn't anxious to fight them outright. Remember his father's initial reaction is to shoot down everything when the battlecrap starts falling. He belays that order to only have the yellows shot down. He's saying, in effect, I am stopping you from attacking but I am still willing to talk. That is proactive.

Now consider:
You have an enemy, cornered and helpless (or so you believe). You are bargaining from a position of strength, and you want to impress that upon your foe. If you seem overly anxious, if you let your opponent know you need a parley, you're losing your bargaining chip, as now they can be the ones dictating terms since they know, or believe, you need them.

He also wanted to see if his Brother was still the same man or not. This was important to him, as he wanted his brothers back. He wanted to speak with his brother to determine if he's still in there or not. And, again, from his point of view, he didn't have a time limit.

[BLANDCorporatio]

He had several priorities. He wanted a non-aggression pact. He wanted his brothers back. He had questions about Parson and decryption. And so on.

{and he had time}

You keep saying he had time. Obviously he didn't and obviously we're not getting anywhere with this discussion. Onwards.

That'd be silly on Earth, where we don't know all of physics, and it would be unwise on Erf, where the ruleset still has surprises. See Kingworld.

Kingworld was the result of a caster link.

yes. And what's your point? My point is that even Erfworlders are surprised by the physics of their world, whether it involves casters or not. And given that, and Parson's rep, writing off his options is unwise.

In fact, I'll let the opponent do the talking:

Ever play any RTS games against live opponents? No matter how much you've played the single player game, you'll eventually run across a live player who figures out a sneaky way to break the game (without cheatcodes I mean, just a clever use of the game mechanics beyond what they were intended to do) and completely catches you off guard. Of course, that will work exactly once against you, because you'll then go and delve in and figure out how they did that and learn to combat it (and, of course, do it yourself). No matter how much you believed yourself prepared, no matter how much you understand the rules, someone will come along who sees a creative way to exploit those rules that will catch you off guard no matter how smart you are. If you don't believe that, then you're either kidding yourself and haven't played enough games online vs real opponents, or you are the single greatest computer gamer on earth and obviously have the tournament trophies to prove it.

Thank you, that's marvellous! So you're saying, the wise player should leave some margin for surprise. And I totally agree. It's Trem who said, nah, nothing can be done by GK now.

[BLANDCorporatio]

Again, he had no reason to believe there was a time limit: his archers could shoot down GK's forces at his leisure. By the time the yellows start attacking, things are in motion and already too late, with the Harvest happening mere seconds later after the attack begins. Things he couldn't have predicted. {snip, will return later}

Now consider:
You have an enemy, cornered and helpless (or so you believe). You are bargaining from a position of strength, and you want to impress that upon your foe. If you seem overly anxious, if you let your opponent know you need a parley, you're losing your bargaining chip, as now they can be the ones dictating terms since they know, or believe, you need them.

Either Trem needs that parley, in which case he should move to get Parson interested in talking, or he doesn't need the parley and can afford to croak the Witch by indiscriminately unleashing the firepower of his fully armed and operational air defenses. Do or do not. There is no try.

His only shooting down the yellows, and not the other colors, was showing GK he wasn't anxious to fight them outright. Remember his father's initial reaction is to shoot down everything when the battlecrap starts falling. He belays that order to only have the yellows shot down. He's saying, in effect, I am stopping you from attacking but I am still willing to talk. That is proactive.

FFS, how?! Trem should know Parson expects only an insulting offer from JS. Trem has reason to not want Parson under that impression. What has he done to alleviate it?

[effataigus]

There is something fishy about this whole discussion, and I think I might have put my finger on it. A central question here is whether we can fault Tram for having faulty assumptions given what we, in our reader omniscience, know. However, I think this inquisition has been lax on our own information sources. Consider:

GK has waited to act in any meaningful way. Charlescomm warned Tram that they are waiting for a parley. These collectively imply that Tram will get his Parley unless GK uses the parley mechanics to engage an exploit that relies on a parley. As far as I can tell, this conclusion is wrong, but only because GK's exploit seemingly has nothing at all to do with Parley. Distraction is key? This was my rationalization at the time, but I reject it now. Surely they were more distracted while they were chatting indoors and out of view of the flying column.

Second. We place the burden of convincing GK that JS will bargain in earnest on Tram. Why? We have two instances of the idiot-ball making these sides miscommunicate, and they are both on GK's side. I didn't notice them fully until now because they were from two of my favorite characters:

1. We believe that it is JS's standard procedure to offer insulting terms of surrender because this was Jack's assessment. I love Jack, but this assessment is pure bull. Tram supposedly has a long string of diplomatic successes and he is the only candidate JS has left for CWL. More to the point for those of you who prefer results-based blaming to decision-making based blaming, we see here that Jack's assessment is dead wrong.

2. Parson says he cannot Parley with Jetstone here: http://www.erfworld.com/book-2-archive/ ... -08-04.jpg This was then, and remains today, a bit of WTF for me. The only things he could be referring to was Jack's assessment or Wanda's fail-parley with Jillian... who is the queen of Faq. This line might have made sense if he had said "we can't parley with the RCCII," but he didn't.

Whoops... here I go rabble rousing ... and I usually try to be such an apologist.

[MarbitChow]

You keep saying he had time. Obviously he didn't and obviously we're not getting anywhere with this discussion. Onwards.

Thank you, that's marvellous! So you're saying, the wise player should leave some margin for surprise. And I totally agree. It's Trem who said, nah, nothing can be done by GK now.

I think people who are arguing that Trem is not showing competence are failing to give enough weight to the standard Erfworld mindset: "It's my turn, so I initiate the actions."
This mindset is absolutely pervasive. It colors every thought, every tactic, every plan. Stanley, when Parson describes Earth's method of fighting, reacts as if it is insanity, because to Erfworlders, it is.
You CANNOT initiate hostile actions when it is not your turn. This is a fundamental law of the universe.

In order for Trem to realize that he was operating under a deadline, he would have to be, quite literally, insane.

You initiate diplomacy when you have all of the information you can be reasonably expected to gain BEFORE you begin talks.
Trem wanted information from Ossomer first. He's lost two brothers to Wanda, and he wanted to know if there was a realistic chance to get them back before he began negotiations.
Trem had no reason to believe that he would be unable to talk to Ossomer first, then to Parson. He even indicated that.

Ease up on Trem already. It's his FIRST DAY on the job as Chief Warlord.

[effataigus]

The Archons are stuck up in the airspace, but they do have one spell they could cast to help defend the ground troops with the units in the tower: Flash Mob. We know the spell can be cast across hex boundaries, so should presumably work across city zones too. While it isn't GK's turn, the archons have now been attacked, so they should be able to cast it off-turn.

Plus, boobs.

[Lamech]

You CANNOT initiate hostile actions when it is not your turn. This is a fundamental law of the universe.

In order for Trem to realize that he was operating under a deadline, he would have to be, quite literally, insane.

Its a well known fact that one can attack with the yellows. So obviously GK will attempt to do as much damage as possible. Now GK might believe they can parley their way out of this, but GK is also gonan think there is a good chance of treachery (see: Kingworld/Queen Bea). So if you make GK think its the latter, they will probably have the yellows attack and may even do it durning the parley since the RCC doesn't honor truces anyway.

You have an enemy, cornered and helpless (or so you believe). You are bargaining from a position of strength, and you want to impress that upon your foe. If you seem overly anxious, if you let your opponent know you need a parley, you're losing your bargaining chip, as now they can be the ones dictating terms since they know, or believe, you need them.

There are ways to do this other than insulting them. Of the 4 parleys the RCC has had with Wanda and co. (Jillian*2, Queen Bea, Ossomer) two of them have ended in treachery. The sane conclusion from Tram's insults is "the royals are not parleying in good faith, and they may attack while defenses are down to boot. We should do as much damage as possible with the remaining yellows before they attack."

And unless GK has really poor intel (which is silly cause archons) they know Jetstone won't be a problem. If Tram was bluffing he should have realized Parson might call it, and that he probably shouldn't have insulted him two seconds ago.

Kingworld was the result of a caster link.

Assuming Tram knows this all he knows is that links can be done between hexes and GK only needs one caster in hex to repeat the insanity at GK, or attempt something similar.

Tram also believed, reasonably so, that he was the one holding all the cards. And, for the record, he wasn't exactly planning to offer Parson a fair deal. He was expecting to be able to dictate terms which Parson was in no position to refuse.

What is this "dictate terms" crap? He has some of GK's forces. In the real world if you have some of your enemies forces, even a large chunk you don't suddenly get to dictate terms. Especially if they have the ability to crush you in the long run. This would be as if the Japanese tried to dictate terms to America right before Pearl Harbor. This is every hostage situation ever. Sure he might try this if he was offering GK WANDA. He is retarted if he actually though GK would except those initial terms.

[BLANDCorporatio]

Phew, thank God, reinforcements. I'll leave it to Lamech to patiently go through stuff again and again for now. My duty here is done, and funnily enough I refer to the "Your Games" forum, where I've been busy writing rulesets.

"Law of the universe" ... well, it has many known exceptions.

effataigus makes the first cogent new point since two pages at least, in questioning whether Royal Sides, in fact, are known to offer insulting parleys to weaker partners. Good question. My guess, based on Ansom's diplomatic attempt way back in Book 1, and Slately's rush to rub it in for GK, suggests that Jack's appraisal is basically correct, and any honest diplomat of JS should know this.

[justamessenger]

I would just like to throw this into the grist mill, if I may:

First, I believe that Tramennis was definitely in character for the initial exchange with Ossomer. I also believe that Tramennis is likely a better diplomat than warlord, for obvious reasons. Tramennis was outmatched before he ever began the parley, and was, in fact, powerless to stop Parson's plan from being implemented.

Second, I don't think it is Tramennis' fault that Parson's plan is following the schedule Parson set for it. Tramennis, at best, could have made some overtures at communicating a desire for a bona fide parley, but it is doubtful Parson would have bought into this, other than as yet another opportunity to buy time for him to kick the plan into gear.

Tramennis' responses have been more than adequate for the 'average Erfworld warlord.' Given Tramennis' apparent intellect and the added insight he received from Charlie, he may well have been braced for *some* gambit from Parson, but without any benefit of knowing what it might be. He may have realized he has NO choice to take initiative in the situation and was accepting that his best course of action is to react to Parson's moves rather than trying to predict them.

In any event, I don't think Tramennis is an idiot. You could likely substitute ANY warlord in Erf and end up with similar results. Parson's stratagems are simply too novel/alien for the warlords to predict, let alone make plans for.

[BLANDCorporatio]

In any event, I don't think Tramennis is an idiot. You could likely substitute ANY warlord in Erf and end up with similar results. Parson's stratagems are simply too novel/alien for the warlords to predict, let alone make plans for.

I'm so far unconvinced of Trem's idiocy also, and pretty much agree to what you said in the post. He's just not good enough (yet) to face Parson, and I'd really like the day when Parson meets that competent match.

[justamessenger]

I'm so far unconvinced of Trem's idiocy also, and pretty much agree to what you said in the post. He's just not good enough (yet) to face Parson, and I'd really like the day when Parson meets that competent match.

Precisely! The question begged is: Can any native Erfworlder actually be that match, or will another offworlder be required to take Parson on at his own game? Parson, after all, is playing his own game, not Erf's.

Also, forgive my ignorance, but I would like some clarification if anyone can provide it...

1) When Tramennis restricted the tower attacks to the yellow dwagons, does that mean that only the yellows can counterattack, or are the GK forces as a whole considered free to act?

2) I seem to recall that for purposes of thinkagrams, an Archon is in close physical proximity with the person sending/receiving said thinkagram. Is this necessary to facilitate the communication? If so, should JS have perceived GK's/Parson's underlying motives due to Ossomer's position as negotiator on behalf of GK (i.e. not being CWL), and/or the lack of an Archon or Thinkamancer to relay terms to the actual CWL/Stanley?

Thanks!

[Kyrt]

You keep saying he had time. Obviously he didn't and obviously we're not getting anywhere with this discussion. Onwards.

From HIS point of view..he had time. Oodles of time. Bags of time. Time to spare, time to waste. The only reason he might consider that he had a deadline would be if he could concoieve of a way in which GK could move and attack.....and exploits are Parsons strength. He has no reason to even think or susepct there is a time limit. Why would he act as if he did?

Thank you, that's marvellous! So you're saying, the wise player should leave some margin for surprise. And I totally agree. It's Trem who said, nah, nothing can be done by GK now.

And short of bypassing physical law, he was right.

[Kyrt]

Either Trem needs that parley, in which case he should move to get Parson interested in talking, or he doesn't need the parley and can afford to croak the Witch by indiscriminately unleashing the firepower of his fully armed and operational air defenses. Do or do not. There is no try.

And the reason he needs to act as if he has a deadline and can't proceed at his own pace, to his own priorities?