Book 2 – Text Updates 045

[Oberon]

Remember, she predicted the fall of FAQ, meaning she knows that an event will happen without the specific details of it.

Faq will fall is like saying. You will die. Eventually every empire, every kingdom falls. So this is back to predictable predictions.

How about this for predictamancer discrepancy:
Marie is able to tell Jack which of the three FAQ cities he needs to veil, with 100% accuracy. This means that she predicts that TV units are going to be able to view the city, and by logical extension this means that she sees approaching units.

And yet she didn't see Stanley approaching, or the city would have been veiled when he arrived. So Marie can accurately predict the flight path of a bat when it is randomly scouting, but can't predict 50 dwagons flying straight for the city. It makes no sense.

[ftl]

I'd just like to point out one thing from earlier on in the comic. When we first heard of Marie, Janis said something like "there was no shame in a caster living in the MK.... unless you were a predictomancer". Basically saying that predictomancers should know their future well enough to avoid being forced into the MK.

So Marie's failures to save FAQ may have been an aberration among predictamancers. Perhaps she had her reasons for this failure - messing with forces too big for her, trying to fight Fate, maybe something of Banhammer's orders. But it was a failure nontheless, and one that Janis didn't consider the norm.

As to what Predictomancy can actually predict - well, I think it's clear that there's some things it can't and some things it can. The question is *how useful* the things that it can predict are. We have two examples to lead us to believe that they CAN be very useful.

1) Janis's insistence that Predictomancers shouldn't wind up in the MK.
2) What Marie did for FAQ - predict which cities would need to be veiled, allowing their side to stay alive with basically just a foolamancer and a predictomancer.

(2) Is definitely more than "predicting the obvious", and (1) is confirmation that people expect them to predict more than the obvious.

That doesn't mean they can see everything - but it's more than "shoot a gun in a crowd, predict a riot".

[Akkristor]

Maybe she saw the fall of FAQ, AND saw herself not preventing it? It is Fate magic, it may be that she felt she was bound to the actions she saw herself doing.

[Zephyr]

And yet she didn't see Stanley approaching, or the city would have been veiled when he arrived. So Marie can accurately predict the flight path of a bat when it is randomly scouting, but can't predict 50 dwagons flying straight for the city. It makes no sense.

Do we actually know this is what happened? We know that the city cloaking hid the cities from the outside world completely - no one knew FAQ even existed. I would imagine that if you knew where the city was, such as would happen if Wanda told you, you'd be able to lay siege to it anyway. You know what hex it's in, even if you can't see it.

If Marie saw Stanley coming and just said "cloak the city" to Jack, but Stanley knew where the city was and attacked it anyway, then Marie failed as a predictamancer anyway.

[Musrum]

Maybe she saw the fall of FAQ, AND saw herself not preventing it? It is Fate magic, it may be that she felt she was bound to the actions she saw herself doing.

Maybe she saw beyond the fall of FAQ. Maybe the price is worth the prize: the whole world. I think we saw the rebirth of FAQ on the last page for Book 1.

[Goshen]

Sizemore ain't dyin'. Not until he discovers the lost art of appearing in translucent form to a mentored pupil/friend.

Except, given that he's a dirtamancer, it would probably be stone golem of some sort.

Well, if he's a Dirtamancer, he would rather appear in the guise of a suggestive bowel movement.

I am so sorry.

Here's something to take that mental image away.

ROTFLMAO! You are not sorry, nor should you be! That just ended my work day in the best way possible. Can't wait for Christmas, now....

[Beelzebuddy]

Taken in this manner it's almost tragic. When you can't see part of the future, you know that's a part you wouldn't want and would actively try to prevent, if you could only see the future to know what you needed to do.

Usually, yes, but often enough not. Suppose your knowing would change your demeanor, and others would see it, react, and that is the problem? Your knowing would cause you trouble then. Or if you would eventually be subject to mind reading or mind control, or be fooled into spilling the beans, or...

I think the problem with paradox-based clouding is pretty insurmountable, actually. An army could simply march with a predictamancer set to "with your shield or on it," with standing orders not to engage unless the predictamancer gets a clear victory signal. They'd never fight a losing battle that way, and even a clouded loss would be avoided.

Yeah, I'm gonna change my answer to Many Worlds. When there's a large enough confluence of random fuckery, you just can't keep all the maybes and what ifs in your head.

[drachefly]

Armies can be attacked against their will, you know. There is no off-turn retreat.

[korbenm]

Hi im new in the Forum and i really like all these Speculations

I was wondering about the Juice cost of Predictamancers.
It could be that the Arkentools influence it like they do influence battles with there Artifact bonus.
That could explain the "cloudy" thing. The Modifiers of three Arkentools together could make it really hard to predict anything.

[Atomic]

Sort of a hodgepodge of ideas here, but bare with me...

What if, as a part of some Predictamancy-code (similar to the secrets of Thinkamancy that Thinkamancers don't share with anyone else?), Predictamancers are compelled to see their predictions through until the likely-bitter end? Perhaps it's a type of Duty that precedes and trumps even that to their ruler/kingdom? Or the more 'epic' a prediction, the less Duty it takes to overcome? Or that the prediction becomes easier to rationalize with betrayal if it's a really impressive prophecy? Or maaaaybe, just maybe, the type of Predictamancy we're seeing (Long term, epic-type of stuff) is only a Yes/No/Maybe kind of prediction?

I'm gonna speculate... Marie tells Wanda she's going to attune to an Arkentool. Only now, Marie is duty-bound. Bound to something higher than her Duty to Faq/Banhammer; she's bound to Fate and bound to Wanda. Being a Predictamancer, it's now Marie's duty to see that prophecy through until the very end, regardless of the cost. Wanda recognized this...in some sort of twisted way, of course. lol.

And that's the ticket; because Marie predicted Wanda's attunement, she'd now have to do everything in her power to make sure that A.) Wanda would survive until B.) Wanda attuned. That'd be enough to override any future visions Marie had/spells she cast... In fact, Marie might've been responsible for Wanda luring Stanley to Faq.

In another corner, of course, we have a dozen or so theories which are all just as likely and just as provable. Marie might be an inept Predictamancer who never leveled up because she was always wasting her juice on predicting how many bats would be flying over Kibo/Otoh on a given turn...or she might be trying to break their world through trickery...or she might be in love with Wanda...or she might've just hated King Banhammer for squandering her and Jack's talents on protecting three podunk cities...or perhaps she's Charlie in disguise. Wait, better...she's Bunny in disguise. That's why Bunny never speaks; her thick accent would give her away. Clever, Rob. Clever. Or you can read the idea below and reverse everything that sounds crazy.

In the third corner, there's the Doctor Who-theory. I'm not sure how many fans there are on these boards, or how many have seen The Waters of Mars... But, [spoilers ahead], at the end of the episode, the tenth doctor (David Tennant) decides that time (the future) is his to control. He pretty much tells the universe to shut up and sit down as he rewrites history...over the course of about five minutes, he ends up changing a set moment in history; rewriting something that had already happened, but at a pretty big cost. Predictamancy could work in the same way. Not everything is set in stone, but you better work darn hard to change your future and pray for some extra Luckamancy on the side. Most Predictamancers might not subscribe to that view, though, opting to leave everything up to Fate... That'd explain why you never see any of their kind in the Magic Kingdom - they'd rather die trying to enable something they predicted (perhaps at their cost of their disbandment by angry rulers?) than be proved wrong/become an enemy of Fate.

Marie could be apeshit-crazy and given over to the opposite view, though. Instead of trying to enable her prophecies, her goals could be to prove to all of Erfworld that Fate isn't their master... She wouldn't have snapped at first, and all that Transylvito-scouting-stuff is weak sauce anyway; nothing to risk her life/reputation on. No, she predicts that Wanda won't attune to an Arkentool, then lies and tells her the opposite. Turns pass with nothing eventful happening. Then Marie predicts that King Banhammer is gonna live for a "friggin' long time"...so she tells him he's gonna die in a few hundred turns or so. She makes sure it's enough turns that he has time to pop an heir, hoping to be able to bamboozle him/her into killing Banhammer. Faq pops Jillian, but she isn't happy at home and goes off on raiding parties... Which is starting to make Marie worried. But finally? A glimmer of hope.

Marie predicts that Stanley is going to fall to Faq-forces. Now she just needs to force all these (anti)prophecies into actuality. She shares her knowledge of Stanley and his Arkentool with Wanda... Marie casts a few Luckamancy scrolls, "forgets" to tell Banhammer/Jack about the incoming hoard of Dwagons, and waits. The Luckamancy scrolls would explain how all those Dwagons showed up, but it just wasn't enough Luckamancy to overcome all of Fate spinning against them. Banhammer dies, but Wanda doesn't get the 'tool. Marie escapes and begins plotting her next plan of battle. Which leads us to to the forming of the Summon Perfect Warlord-scroll and Marie's obsession with Wanda... King Banhammer was an isolated and singular occurrence. Perhaps that "friggin' long time" was only a hundred and eighty turns, yet who is she to argue with the Titans/Fate and how they measure time? But, ooooh...if Wanda attuned. Oh man oh man, if Wanda attuned? That'd turn a "no" into a "yes", which would be enough to prove once and for all that Fate isn't their master.

Only now? Marie is in too deep. She's made some predictions that "the status quo is gonna remain the same", and she can't allow that. She needs Parson in order to fuel her crazed fantasies of proving Fate wrong. Wanda served her part in Marie's sick and twisted little game, but Parson has so much more to add. So much. That explains why Marie wants to keep Parson alive and why she's so excited about Parson 'changing everything'.

PROVE ME WRONG, BIZNITCHES.

/Tinfoil.

[Akkristor]

"She said she was from a bubble kingdom. See, that's what Faq was back then; they used a Foolamancer to stay hidden from all the other sides. But Wanda...this is Lady Firebaugh I'm talking about. Wanda said she was willing to give me the location of the capital, if I would promise to capture her when we attacked."

Even if Jack had veiled the town (which he wasn't in at the time, he was at another town, at Wanda's direction), it wouldn't have helped. Stanley knew where it was.

[Smoker]

Remember, she predicted the fall of FAQ, meaning she knows that an event will happen without the specific details of it.

Faq will fall is like saying. You will die. Eventually every empire, every kingdom falls. So this is back to predictable predictions.

How about this for predictamancer discrepancy:
Marie is able to tell Jack which of the three FAQ cities he needs to veil, with 100% accuracy. This means that she predicts that TV units are going to be able to view the city, and by logical extension this means that she sees approaching units.

And yet she didn't see Stanley approaching, or the city would have been veiled when he arrived. So Marie can accurately predict the flight path of a bat when it is randomly scouting, but can't predict 50 dwagons flying straight for the city. It makes no sense.

It depends on how you look at it. The way you phrased it above, yeah that makes no sense, but to me that sounds more like Lookamancy than Predictamancy.

Its funny, because the two are so similar, but the way I imagine them, they are complete opposites. You say Marie can see approaching units, but I think of it more as approaching events.

For example, I shamelessly speculate that:
A small number of units on a scouting mission is harder for a Lookamancer to find than a swarm of Dwagons. Inversely, a small, reasonably common event is easier for a Predictamancer to foresee than the culmination of a complex set of unusual circumstances.

So for a small event, I imagine:
Predictamancer: "I predict that a scouting party will be within range of Otoh next turn" (Useful intel - you know where to put Jack)
Lookamancer: "I very luckily became aware of 4 bats and a goyle within 5 hexes of Otoh, but where they go from there is anyone's guess." (Better than nothing, but doesn't tell you where to put your Foolamancer)

versus a large event, which might be more like:
Predictamancer: "I.. uhh.. am pretty sure that Faq is gonna fall.. one day.. yeah, but there's just too many variables for me to get a fix on the particulars." (Laaaame)
Lookamancer: "Omfg, there's a buttload of dwagons and an arkentool within 20 hexes!" (Time to hire extra Foolamancers and cover all three of your asses at once)

Or you could predict say... if a gems will be found in a mountain hex. Or if a pre-set scouting path will encounter enemy units or tamable dwagons.

See again that sounds more like Lookamancy to me- I cant imagine a Predictamancer foreseeing the location of a mine, but I can imagine them saying "I foresee you running a successful mining operation in the surrounding hexes."

I mean, if you asked your Predictamancer "Will this mountain provide many gems?" The answer could always be no. Because if your Predictamancer told you it wouldn't, then you wouldn't mine there, and thus the prediction is correct, regardless of the fact that the mountain might be the wealthiest gem deposit on the map.

But really, UGH. Prophecy in fiction is almost always flawed. I'm going to put it in the basket of "accept without question", along with Erfworlds concept of Time and Free Will.

[Dr Pepper]

Well regardless of how it really works, as far as Wanda is concerned, predctomancy is clear and reliable. After all, she was promised Thane of Cawdor, er, Attunement, and it happened! Since then, she has been secure in the knowledge that any reverses are merely bumps in the road to her destiny.

[No one in particular]

Since then, she has been secure in the knowledge that any reverses are merely bumps in the road to her destiny.

You know who that just reminded me of?

Stanley.

No, really!

"The odds don't matter. Strategy doesn't matter. Those are details. That's your job. But we will win this battle, Lord Hamster. Because it is the will of the Titans that I control the Arkentools."

[Ytaker]

Remember, she predicted the fall of FAQ, meaning she knows that an event will happen without the specific details of it.

Faq will fall is like saying. You will die. Eventually every empire, every kingdom falls. So this is back to predictable predictions.

How about this for predictamancer discrepancy:
Marie is able to tell Jack which of the three FAQ cities he needs to veil, with 100% accuracy. This means that she predicts that TV units are going to be able to view the city, and by logical extension this means that she sees approaching units.

And yet she didn't see Stanley approaching, or the city would have been veiled when he arrived. So Marie can accurately predict the flight path of a bat when it is randomly scouting, but can't predict 50 dwagons flying straight for the city. It makes no sense.

Wanda revealed the location to Stanley. Veiling wouldn't have done anything. You can only veil when someone isn't looking at you as veiling doesn't make you invisible, it just changes your form.

Once he knew where the city was victory was nigh impossible. Artifact bonus+ Stanley's huge leadership bonus+ dragons awesomeness means a nigh unstoppable army. And of course, Faq lacked many soldiers or damaging casters.

[joosy]

I remember posting this theory a long time ago so time to dust it off again.


It may be that everything we have seen so far is all part of an overreaching plan by Faq, possibly even guided by Banhammer himself.

Remember that Faq was an 'impossible' bubble kingdom that existed with a goal other than constant warfare (Jillian's mercenary work being the one exception). I imagine at some point during their philosophical discussions they devised a plan to bring their thinking to all of Erfworld. Marie predicted that their plan would eventually bring about the end of their side - BUT Faq would rise again, under Jillian. If Banhammer WAS involved it is possible that he realized that he would have to croak and willingly accepted that for their plan to succeed. OR they thought their tower defenses would be enough for Stanley's dwagons but somehow Fate intervened with all of the feral dwagons between Gobwin Knob and Faq... hopefully that little mystery will be explained at some point.

Wanda, Janis, Jillian, Parson, Stanley (to some degree), and others are just pawns being used by Marie and possibly others.
Marie's manipulation of Wanda set Wanda on the path to attune with the Arkenpliers (and resulted in Faq's temporary demise). Her manipulation of Janis' quest for peace resulted in the Perfect Warlord Spell. She is now poised to exert direct influence on Sizemore now.

Some other questions that are rolling around my spacious brain cavity are:

Why hasn't Marie returned to Faq now that Jillian has revived it? That maybe just the mechanics of becoming a barbarian caster but it may be that she sees her need in the Magic Kingdom as greater than returning to advise Jillian.

There has been mention of other former Faq casters as well - will we ever meet them or will they be the 'Radagast the Brown and other wizards' that are never mentioned or seen in this story.

[No one in particular]

What other casters have been mentioned? There was Marie the predictamancer, Jack the foolamancer, and Wanda the croakamancer... and well, we've met all of them.

[Ytaker]

I'd imagine we'll go back to that region in time at some point. Several updates have mentioned the current shortage of natural allies for gobwin knob, and goblins overthrew Saline IV. As such, that aspect of the plot should come back at some point. We may well find out then what happened to FAQ, and see any other casters.

[joosy]

What other casters have been mentioned? There was Marie the predictamancer, Jack the foolamancer, and Wanda the croakamancer... and well, we've met all of them.

I believe there has been mention of FAQ having a disporportionately large number of casters here and there but for simplicities sake I give you this:

http://www.erfworld.com/book-2-archive/?px=%2F2010-07-16.png

"Rest of their casters I guess croaked or got away to the Magic Kingdom. But hey we got two of the best ones out of it." He put down the Arkenhammer and looked distant for a moment.

It is possible that the only other caster was Marie, yes, but the word used was 'casters' instead of 'caster' which suggests more than one. ANyway, yes it is all 'hazy' and even if there were other Faq casters they may never be brought up. It is possible Rob is just leaving himself some wiggle room in case he wants to go back and do some more subplots regarding Faq.

[Ditto]

I really think everyone is making too much of what may or may not work for Predictamancy. It's only as useful as the questions you ask it. If Banhammer says 'When will roving units next have a chance at discovering our cities?', then Stanley charging in wouldn't ping. Because Wanda told him 'Faq Exists. Also, it's here.'

Now that she has a lot of time on her hands and no one to tell her how to spend her juice, she ruminates on things like 'How can we break Erfworld?' 'When will there next be a huge upset to the order of things?' 'How many licks...' y'know, that sort of thing, and hone down on the the answers as she finds vague predictions of interest that merit more investigation.