Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

[drachefly]

Sure we can talk up a storm, but who really has the best handle on things? There's only one way to settle it - put your money where your mouth is! Of course, handling actual money would be difficult and in some jurisdictions constitute illegal gambling. So I propose we work in quatloos.

We can have pools, offers of one-on-one wagers, etc. To keep things from escalating uncontrollably and to avoid cutting someone off forever, each participant starts at zero quatloos; each is permitted to go up to 100 quatloos into debt, plus 10 per calendar month since their first bet was placed (start June 30? Get an extra 10 debt limit on July 1). If a bet is due to resolve in the future, you can borrow up to the limit for when it would resolve, not for when you place the bet (so if today we started a pool that resolves in 320 days, you could bet 200 quatloos).

Don't edit your posts frivolously - if a post IS edited, then that opens up disputes and I'd rather not deal with that. If it comes down to it, I'm going to err in favor of the one who hasn't got edit history in the relevant posts. If you wish to retract a bet offer before it would naturally expire, make a new post saying it's invalid. Once you see that no one ninja'd your cancellation, you can blank out the cancelled bet.

If you offer a bet and new information comes in that makes your outcome seem less likely, anyone taking that bet has to ask before claiming it (example: "I'll take that, if it's still good"). Bets offered and taken with no relevant information since need not wait on confirmation. This is a judgement call by the management, which can be swayed by argument. (See page 8 or 9 for a failure to think about this which put my mind into making this policy in the first place)

Speaking of judgement calls, in the event I call a bet in my favor without a concession and I turn out to have been wrong, I pay out double. In general, don't be in a rush to call bets. It's not like you can spend quatloos anyway.

This post will be edited to maintain the list of open pools and taken bets, and will be updated reasonably promptly.

(Note: the total of bets outstanding does not count bet offers, only agreed-upon bets or entries into pools)
STANDINGS:
0beron is at -10q and has 65q outstanding
Agarwaen is at 12q
Atomic is at -10q
Balerion is at 0q and has 35q outstanding (30 of which are distant future)
BCCroaker is at -50 q and has 20 q outstanding
Beeskee is at 0q and has 10q outstanding
Bladestorm is at 95q and has 151q outstanding
BLANDCorporatio is at -5q and has 10 q outstanding
Cloudbreaker is at -10 q and has 80 q outstanding (70 of which are medium-long term)
DeathTheKid is at 0 q and has 10 q outstanding
Drachefly is at 112 q and has 179 q outstanding (20 of which are distant future)
Duke of spoot is at 0q and has 70q outstanding
Effataigus is at 0q and has 58 q outstanding
erwaro is at 0q and has 20q outstanding
Fabo is at 0q and has 35q outstanding (30 of which are distant future)
five-thirteen is at -10q and has 20q outstanding
Fjord is at 0q and has 30q outstanding
GJC is at 0q and has 10q outstanding
Itoh is at 0q and has 35q outstanding
Kandarin is at -10q and has 10q outstanding
kriss1989 is at 0q and has 10q outstanding
Lamech is at 0q and has 20q outstanding
Lipkin is at 0q and has 10q outstanding
mantimeforgot is at -1q
MarbitChow is at -1 q and has 20q outstanding
mortissimus is at 40q and has 20q outstanding
Mrtyuh is at -10q and has 120q outstanding (60 of which distant future)
Nakedkali is at -50q
Nueamin is at -60q
Nnelg is at -23q and has 59q outstanding
Oberon is at -10q and has 30q outstanding
saladman is at 0 q and has 10 q outstanding
shai-hulud is at 0q and has 20q outstanding
sheepfly is at -10 q
Sir_Dr_D is at -1q
Sixty is at -10 q and has 50q outstanding
SNfinity is at 0q and has 30q outstanding
Swodaems is at 0 q and has 40q outstanding
ThisIsNotDan is at 0q and has 5q outstanding
Vintermann is at 0 q
WhirdCheese is at -3q and has 13q outstanding
Whispri is at 25q and has 104q outstanding
wih is at 0q and has 5q outstandng
youngstormlord is at -10q

OPEN POOLS:
POOL 5: Will there be an offer to continue the 'game', in any fashion, from Charlie, at the end of the story?
I put 20q on 'no'
Nnelg put 10q on 'yes'.

CURRENT BETS AND CLOSED POOLS:
Cloudbreaker bet DeathTheKid 10 that "decrypted casters have no juice, and can therefore only cast spells from scrolls."
~~-
Sixty has bet saladman 10 that Sizemore will enter spacerock via the portal soon after Parson. Shall we call it 'this turn', to put an end date on it? (yes)
~~~~
Bland has bet effataigus 10 that Wanda will express 'decrypt Jack' thoughts before the close of Book 2.
----
Sixty has bet me 10 that Parson will prevent himself from having access to the bracer during Book 2.
~~~~
Swodaems bet me 10 that the Dwagon encounters on the way to FAQ were an unintended effect caused by the dwagons instinctively scavenging meat. - resolve in my favor if no revelation by the end of book 4.
~~~~
Swodaems bet me 20 that Banhammer was already uncroaked by the time Stanley arrived in Faq and that Wanda was trying to stage an elaborate play to fool Jillian. - resolve in my favor if no revelation by the end of book 4.
----
Swodaems bet Sixty 10 that Queen Bea was behind the death of Saline. Resolve in Sixty's favor if no revelation by the end of Book 4.
~~~~
MarbitChow bets BCCroaker 20 that Parson and Wanda don't become an item by the end of book three.
----
effataigus bet Mrtyuh 10q that Jillian will come back to JS (or an engagement involving Tram outside of JS) before the end of book 2.
----
I bet Mrtyuh 5q that Wanda makes Master class before reaching FAQ.
~~~~
0beron (zero) bet Whispri 5q that Wanda will not make Master Class before reaching FAQ.
----
Balerion bet Mrtyuh 30q that this is substantially correct and will be established before the comic ends, including by official statements of the author: "Predicitmancy functions by means of the relative nature of time in Erfworld.For instance, it might allow the predictimancer to actually watch events as they transpire by letting their perception experience time much more rapidly than their body, and then reuniting the two. But I will claim a win if the relative nature of time is involved in any capacity"
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet me 5q that Tramennis will be captured by Gobwin Knob by the End of Book 2.
~~~~
Whispri bet me 10q that Wanda creates at least one Golem that is powerful enough to count as a Heavy, without the use of Scrolls, prior to Book 1.
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet Whispri 10q that Cubbins will become the first decrypted caster.
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet Fabo 30q that before Erfworld wraps up, the Arkendish will be used to make a 4- or 5-way link of the 4 Attuned wielders of the Arkentools and perhaps Parson as well. Since this would probably happen very close to the end, there would be no time limit other than the end of the comic.
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet Fabo 5q that Wanda will seduce Marie before the fall of Faq.
----
0beron (zero) bet me 5q that all 8 casters FAQ had (listed in Book 0 Episode 30) popped as FAQ units, and were not captured or hired. If there is no result by the end of Book 0, then nobody wins.
----
0beron (zero) bet me 5q that Tram will WILLINGLY turn to Parson's side, rather than being captured.
----
0beron (zero) bet five-thirteen 20q that the 4th 'Tool uses Signamancy.
----
0beron (zero) bet sixty 10q that the reason Jillian was called back to court is directly related to Wanda or Olive (not just Haffaton in general). (this bet is not to be called until the end of Book 0) (but it's really looking like a win for sixty)
~~~~
Duke of spoot bet cloudbreaker 30q that Charlie is offering money for Archons alive because he has stopped spawning them.
~~~~
Duke of spoot bet cloudbreaker 40q that when an attack is made on Gobwin's Knob, it will be underground, and Charlie will have something to do with it (like giving info to somebody else).
~~~~
Whispri bet me 10q that Wanda poses as a different type of Caster while serving at Faq.
~~~~
I bet whispri my 50q to his 2q that Wanda doesn't pose as another type of caster at any point while at FAQ. This is without regard to success or failure. In no case does a joke count. Attempting to fool any of the casters, warlords, or Banhammer even for a moment counts; for others, trying for, say, a minute. (I include this exception since fooling regular soldiers is much easier and has many fewer consequences and would not be generally the same sort of endeavor)
~~~~
SNfinity bet 0beron and me 10q each (at even odds) that the fourth Arkentool attunes to Sizemore.
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet kriss1989 10q that Caesar will become Ruler of Transylvito before the end of Book 3.
~~~~
GJC bet Lamech 10q that, by the end of Jetstone's turn, Tramennis will be ruler of Jetstone. A Slately clone depopping at the end of turn counts. (We'll wait for direct confirmation on the extreme off chance that Ansom ends up being ruler)
~~~~
Nnelg bet Balerion 5q that someone important (ex. Parson, Wanda, Jack, etc.) defects from GK by the end of Book 2.
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet Nnelg bet 10q that Charlie played a significant role in Haffaton’s downfall and that in turn led to the Hippiemancers getting in bed with the Thinkamancers, so to speak.
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet Nnelg 5q that King County's honor duel was against Haffaton, and it will play an important role in Haffaton's downfall.
~~~~
Nnelg bet me 3q that Jillian's heir will be female.
~~~~
Lamech bet SNfinity 10q that Ansom became king of Jetstone when real Slately died. See page 11 for exact terms.
~~~~
Sixty bet Whispri 10q that Jillian's yellow dwagon gets converted by Stanley when he attacks. If it dies before then or something else happens to it, Whispri wins.
~~~~
Oberon (Oh) wagers Bladestorm 20 quatloos that Parson and at least but not limited to Wanda do pass through the Jetstone portal. This does not have to be together, but it will be this day.
~~~~
(Oh)beron bets zeroberon 10q that Jojo was not a part of the Kingworld (*hurk! hawk! pa-ting!*) spell.
~~~~
Itoh bets Whispri 20q that Charlescomm or a side allied (at least informally) with Charlescomm gains possession of the Arkenpliers by the end of book 2 (not counting a CC alliance with GK)
~~~~
Itoh bets Whispri 15q that Charlescomm or a side allied (at least informally) with Charlescomm gains possession of the Arkenhammer by the end of book 2 (not counting a CC alliance with GK)
~~~~
Nnelg bet effataigus 20q that Charlie was behind neither Saline IV's death nor GK's recent lack of gobwins - but if one but not the other, bet is off. (Effectively, two separate bets for 10q)
~~~~
Nnelg bets 10q to Bladestorm's 5q that Jillian croaks Olive Branch after the latter becomes Overlady of Haffaton.
~~~~
Kandarin bet Bladestorm 10q that sometime in Book 0, Wanda will try to uncroak a caster and find out the hard way that they can no longer cast.
~~~~
Whispri bet bladestorm and me 1q each that Wanda will become Chief Caster of a Side other than Gobwin Knob during Book Zero.
~~~~
I bet Bladestorm 5q that if Jack does croak this turn, he is eventually decrypted (and if he's not croaked this turn, bet is off) (The turn in Book 2)
~~~~
I bet ThisIsNotDan 10q to his 5q that the person who returned from the MK with Parson and appears to be Jack is not actually Bowie, the changeamancer from Unaroyal.
~~~~
Beeskee bet Whispri 10q that the first time Parson kills a person other than Clonely, he throws up.
~~~~
Shai-hulud bet mortissimus 10q that Wanda has seen what Charlie really looks like, if only briefly, by the end of the current (Jillian/FAQ) storyline of Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower). She does not need to meet him.
~~~~
Mortissimus bet Bladestorm 5Q that if Jack is dead he will be decrypted. If he is dead and is decrypted Mortissimus win 5Q, if he is dead but is not decrypted (lets say by the end of book 2 to make sure there is an end even if somebody puts up a mobile Jack corpse movement service) the Bladestorm wins 5Q. If he did not die on page 105 due to some mancy or trickery this bet is voided.
~~~~
erwaro bet wih 5 q that, before the beginning of Gobwin Knob's next turn, we will know definitively whether or not there are living Hobgobwins in Spacerock.
~~~~
erwaro bet Whispri 10q that no casters are involved in stopping the fire at Spacerock. Details on page 23.
~~~~
bladestorm bet whispri 5q that Artemis doesn't get decrypted by Wanda
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WhirdCheese bet effataigus 13q that the scroll brings whomever it is used on to Charlescomm's capital. If the scroll is not used by the end of the second book nobody wins.
~~~~
bladestorm bet his 50q to effataigus' 10q that the Arkentools are shown not to be tied to a single discipline by the end of book 3.
~~~~
I bet Shai-hulud 10q that within one full turn, Stanley is captured.
~~~~
bladestorm bet fjord 30q that we'll see in book 2 that the hammer can only levitate, not fly (see page 25)
~~~~
bladestorm bet 20q to mortissimus' 5 that Charlie wanted Stanley to change the capital.
~~~~
Erwaro's 5 to Lipkin's 10, that Parson is either a Findamancer or a Weirdomancer. If he doesn't have a discipline, no resolution.

RESOLVED BETS AND POOLS:
Pool #1: predict when, in terms of updates, Parson exits the Magic Kingdom. Bets will be taken until comic 65 or text update 52 is up, whichever comes first. Manner of exit and destination are not subjects of the pool.
I put ten quatloos on his exiting during comic 66.
DeathTheKid put 10 on comic 68.
DeathTheKid won.

BCCroaker bet me 50 q that Rob doesn't get to 15,000 words for IP(TSF) by the end of November (2011), declared update time. Bet is off if comic-style updates resume during November.
I won

vintermann has bet me 10q that once Goodminton falls, Wanda will not in fact be captured by an opposing side, but escape through the portal in the dungeon to become a barbarian in the Magic Kingdom (temporarily, obviously).
I won. (Even if she somehow - somehow evades capture while stuck in the hex, she's not making it to that portal)

Whispri bet me 10q that Jillian pops in Wanda's personal space.
I win, barring a bizarre twist (which did not manifest)

~~~~
Pool #2: Predict the update in which the tower of Spacerock is destroyed by siege creatures and/or equipment. Updates after 100 and 'never' will not be accepted as unique entries, only as '101+'. Nearest bettor wins, in case it lies unequally between bets; if equally between them, the pot is split.
I put 10 quatloos on comic 81, 2 on 101+.
Sixty has 10 quatloos on 101+.
Agarwaen has 10 on update 68.
Note: So, Agarwaen wins with 74 or less (update 74 was it - right on the border!)
Agarwaen won.

~~~~

Pool #4: "the next type of caster to whom we'll be introduced. We would have to be given a name and disipline. They would have to actually appear in the scene, not merely be mentioned. It has to be a caster type which we have not before met. That would make the options: Findamancer, Mathamancer, Weirdomancer, Changemancer, Signamancer, Date-a-mancer, Shockamancer or Rhyme-o-mancer."

Mrtyuh put 10 on signamancer
I put 10 on date-a-mancer
Whispri put 10 on weirdomancer
Mrtyuh won (volume 0, episode 30)

~~~~
Pool #3, take 2: first update during which Wanda has Olive as her Chief Caster. Nearest gets it, ties split proportionally to bet.
I put 10q on 27.
Mrtyuh put 10q on 65.
(we found out for sure during update 33 that this condition had already been fulfilled since update 28)
~~~~
0beron bet SNfinity 10q that the "figure" seen in the tower by Jillian is in fact Charlie.
SNfinity won.
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Whispri bet me 3q that Jillian will fail to take the City by storm. (The city being the one with the mannequin, where they ate the poisoned rations)
I won.
~~~~
Cloudbreaker bet me 10q that Jillian pops out Bart's eye with a salad fork before the end of Book 0. She didn't.
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Kandarin bet Vintermann 10q that the outcome of the air battle over Spacerock will hinge on the actions of Don's personal bat. Vintermann won.
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Mrtyuh bet Oberon (Oh) 10q that un-Tommy will decay until he ceases to exist (as opposed to being destroyed in combat or disbanded,) and this process will be complete before Wanda leaves Goodminton's service.
Mrtyuh conceded, but it's still possible, however unlikely, we find out that Wanda went down fighting.
~~~~
Bladestorm bet 20q to Whispri's 10q that there will be no combat attacks against any of GK's forces (wherever they may be, MK, GK, SR, wherever) during pages 94 through 99 of Book 2. Whispri won.
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Nueamin bets mortissimus 50q that Parson enters the portal (to Jetstone) before December.
Mortissimus won.
~~~~
Bladestorm ran a pool on the next sort of caster to appear, and the result was:
Whispri +20
effataigus -5
bladestorm -12
drachefly -2
Nnelg -1
~~~~
POOL 6: Same as pool 1, but with a later closing date: Update during which Parson's head enters the portal. 10q exactly, pick one update that hasn't been taken yet. Broken up into rounds, based on when we got new information. Round 1 started after update 95, and will end upon the next MK update.
Round 1
Nnelg: 101
Neuamin: 100
bladestorm: 99 WON
Drachefly: 98
mortissimus: 97
SNfinity: 96
Round 2:
bladestorm: 99 WON
Drachefly: 98
mortissimus: 97
Round 3:
Nnelg: 100
bladestorm: 99 WON
mortissimus: 98
~~~~
Agarwaen bet me 10 that Parson will not enter the spacerock portal before the fall of the city.
I won.
~~~~
DeathTheKid has bet me 10 that Parson will level before leaving the MK this time.
I won.
----
BLANDCorporatio bet Mrtyuh 5q that before leaving the MK, Parson will level. Twice.
Mrtyuh won.
~~~~
Nakedkali bet Mortissimus and me 20q each, and Nnelg 2q, and Whispri 3q, and Effataigus 5q, that Parson does not enter the Spacerock portal in 2012.
We won.
----
Nnelg bet Whispri 5q that Parson does not get to meet any non-GK warlords in person by the end of Book 2. He did.
~~~~
Youngstormlord bet Bladestorm 10q that Wanda will either shoot or stab Olive in the back in the next update, while Olive is preoccupied with Jill. She didn't.
~~~~
I bet Bladestorm 5q that Sylvia croaks this battle (Spacerock)
She parched in update 102.
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Atomic bet me 10q that in the next update of IPtSF (page 64), King Banhammer tries to stop Jillian from harming/engaging Olive yet again. Only this time, Banhammer will be told off by Marie when she Predicts the results of the current skirmish.
Neither occurred.
~~~~
The Croakamantic Betting Pool (in the thread of the same name), round 1, yielded:
Bladestorm put in 3 and won the pot, for a net of 7.
I lost 3
WhirdCheese lost 3
Sir_Dr_D lost 1
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet me 5q that Parson and Sylvia will hook up at least once before the End of Book 4.
She was dusted in book 2.
~~~~
MarbitChow bet 1q to Nnelg's 4q that Decrypted Slately croaks Clone Slately. (we didn't yet see Slately's body destroyed, but this does seem an unlikely combination)
Clonely was tossed into a red dwagon's mouth.
~~~~
Oberon (Oh) wagers Bladestorm 20 quatloos that Jetstone does not fall this day. (see original post for details on definition of 'day'). It did.
~~~~
bladestorm bet me 10q that Charlie is a carnymancer. He was.
~~~~
sheepfly bet me 10q that Ace defects from Jetstone voluntarily (is not turned by magic or decryption) by the end of book 2. He croaked instead.
~~~~
My 50q to Bladestorm's 5q that Charlie isn't actually secretly Olive. Based on vol 0 ep 66, we agreed that they aren't.
~~~~
mantimeforgot's 1q to my 1000q that of the four prediction paragraphs at the top of his post at the bottom of page 14, three are more or less true. Of the four, one was that parson wouldn't make it to Jetstone (he did) and another was that Sylvia would be the last unit standing a Jetstone (she wasn't). So, there we go.
----
five-thirteen bet me 10 q that Charlie has veiled Archons in Spacerock airspace. He conceded a last June and I thought I'd let it go a bit longer, but by now I'm convinced too.

[DeathTheKid]

I like this idea, and I put 10 quatloos on Parson exiting during comic 68.


And while this is not part of the bet, I still feel like saying why I'm betting farther ahead then you. TGMTTA still have done nothing, so I think they will play some part before Parson leaves (taking 2 updates), and one update before that of Parson interrogating Janis and Marie, and then the last update will be to wrap things up then step through the portal (though he won't actually appear in Jetstone until update 69).

[cloudbreaker]

I'll bet 10 quatloos that decrypted casters have no juice, and can therefore only cast spells from scrolls.

[DeathTheKid]

I'm willing to bet 30 quataloos that casters still have juice/can cast. Archons are basically flying mini casters and they seem to be able to cast just fine.

[Sixty]

I'll put 10 quatloos on the tower falling being 101+

I'll also put 10 quatloos on Sizemore following Parson into Spacerock at this point despite not wanting to earlier.

[Saladman]

I'll also put 10 quatloos on Sizemore following Parson into Spacerock at this point despite not wanting to earlier.

I'll take the other side of this. 10 quatloos he doesn't go through. (Though the walk back through Portal Park ought to be interesting for him.)

[Sixty]

Yeah, I'm fine with the bet being that Sizemore has to do it this turn.

[Agarwaen]

10 quats on the tower falling on 68

10 quats on Parson not entering the portal to SpaceRock before the city (not the side) falls.

[drachefly]

I'll take that.

[BLANDCorporatio]

10 quatloos on Wanda getting "decrypt Jack" ideas again.

[effataigus]

10 quatloos on Wanda getting "decrypt Jack" ideas again.

Unwinnable! I'll take it for her not expressing such ideas again during the remainder of book 2, though.

Ten more on Jillian coming back to JS (or an engagement involving Tram outside of JS) before the end of book 2.

[BLANDCorporatio]

10 quatloos on Wanda getting "decrypt Jack" ideas again.

Unwinnable!

Oops, right you are, should have specified a time frame. Make it, 10 quatloos on Wanda expressing "decrypt Jack" ideas again before the current book closes.

[effataigus]

Well then, accepted!

[drachefly]

Unless Parson somehow busts his way through the portal next comic, it looks like I'm the first person to lose a bet. If he does, it's a push.

[DeathTheKid]

Time to do something random. I'm betting 10 quatloos that Parson will level before leaving the Magic Kingdom.

He was considered a "Special" Unit way back in book one, and Maggie called his brain a weapon. We also know that Casters don't need to fight to level, but simply casting can give them some experience (Sizemore leveled from making traps). So I'm guessing either through fighting his way out of the kingdom or debating with Thinkamancers/being enlightened about more stuff in Erfworld (he may level through plot related things for all we know), Parson will level.

[Swodaems]

10 quatloos on Wanda getting "decrypt Jack" ideas again.

Unwinnable!

Oops, right you are, should have specified a time frame. Make it, 10 quatloos on Wanda expressing "decrypt Jack" ideas again before the current book closes.

15 on it not being possible due to the state of his corpse.

[drachefly]

Time to do something random. I'm betting 10 quatloos that Parson will level before leaving the Magic Kingdom.

At even odds? I'll take that.

[BLANDCorporatio]

Time to do something random. I'm betting 10 quatloos that Parson will level before leaving the Magic Kingdom.

At even odds? I'll take that.

Cwap, why not. I'll put 5 quatloos that before leaving the MK, Parson will level. Twice.

[Lamech]

Him some bets 10 quatloos

Before the end of book two Maggie's suggestion on Stanley will break, and the backlash will harm someone. (Either her or Stanley.)

Actually thats the only one I got right now...

[bob the 6th]

bet 100 quat that the next book is a fight with charlie. ten that parson gets banished before the end of the battle, and we are left with an open ending.